AstroCycle Analysis of 7/2/10
已有 6180 次阅读 2010-07-05 18:05AstroCycle Analysis of 7/2/10
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Indicators are bearish to mixed into New Moon with a possible Moon Fractal match with November 08
Short Term Breadth is Neutral (-1)
Medium Term Breadth is Bearish (-5)
Long Term Breadth is Bearish (-3)
The SPX is bearish below 1040 on Tuesday
The SPX made a slightly higher low on Friday after the Jobs Report without the Census workers was not bad enough to give us new lows and then turned sharply lower from 1030 and the top parallel channel we built last week, but we did break a few resistance lines and will probably test the April middle channel and June down trend lines near 1040 on Monday before heading lower to the 980 area by the end of the week. The top blue Tick lines are making higher lows but flat to lower highs which has led to failed rebounds and new lows lately suggesting new lows unless the Tick lines start making higher highs. The lower Put/Call and white Trin lines are not much help lately, except when they leave high spikes which seem to precede short term lows by a day or so, but these high spikes are a sign this market is driven by high emotions. The bottom blue PPO line made a higher low and high on Thursday and Friday leaving a divergence that often precedes short term lows but the PPO must exceed the June 27th rebound high to show some strength and it has not so far. The 6 day magenta and 2 day yellow cycles are bullish for Tuesday but the 8 hour light blue cycle suggest it will already start to weaken as we get closer to the end of day.
See the NDX 1 minute chart here and the Dow 1 minute chart here
6 day cycle high on Tuesday and low on Thursday-Friday
The last move up of 8 days into the Summer Solstice of June 21st suggests a possible low last Thursday near an April channel line, but the lower April channel is closer to 980 and would make a much better low this week. The top Tick lines keep turning up from oversold lows but the price makes little gains, and until that pattern changes we should remain careful of failed rebounds and lower lows. The lower Put/Call and white Trin lines have both spiked very high suggesting a short term low is close and a move back above the February lows near 1040 would be the first sign a move higher to 1070 is starting. The bottom blue PPO line is making lower highs and lows but came close to reversing that trend last Friday and a move above 1040 would do it, but the Tick lines and 6 day cycle suggest we will drop to the lower April channel line near 980 first.
SPX is bearish but oversold near support for week ending July 9th
The SPX failed to hold support despite the somewhat oversold conditions and quickly dropped to the February lows and then the 1007 support level which may be enough to give us a rebound into the New Moon, but the 980 area would make a better low this week and the 11 day cycle falls on Thursday the 8th which is also 3 days before the New Moon and the usual place for new Moon lows. The top Tick lines are breaking the series of higher lows while continuing to make lower highs suggesting further weakness and we are close to the the top trend line that gave us sharp turns lower the last two weeks. The lower Put/Call and white Trin lines have both broken their bullish trend lines but are stalling in oversold and increasing the odds of a low this week and a rebound into the New Moon and partial Eclipse of July 11th. The bottom blue PPO line is bearish but stalling near the May 25th lows which should give us a rebound into the New Moon, but a break of the May lows by the PPO line would be very bearish and suggest we are already in a Wave 3 down to the 800 area this Fall.
See the NDX 10 minute chart here and the Dow 10 minute chart here
Outlook is bearish to mixed for July
The SPX failed to hold the expanding wedge near 1080 and broke the February lows near 1040 which then implied the targets of 1007 and probably the lower channel near 980 as well but New Moon lows usually come 3 days before and we might get a short rebound into the New Moon before we reach 980. The top blue Tick line stayed in overbought despite the decline and the new lows the last two weeks and is in a position to give us a much longer and deeper decline as it eventually heads lower. The lower red Trin line is bearish but oversold and the blue Put/Call line is bearish to mixed in the middle of the range leaving a bearish to mixed picture for July. The bottom blue PPO line continues to drop sharply towards the March 25th lows, and a break of those lows would suggest we are in a Wave 3 down that should take us to the 800 area. The most likely bearish count is that we have completed 5 Waves from the March 09 low on April 26 which is a PI cycle of 3,142 days from 9/11, and have already finished the first Wave down of three that should take us to new lows by Fall 2011, and that means we should have a fairly large counter trend rally into July. The alternative bullish count is that the rally from the March 09 low is not over and another rally has started and probably take us to marginal new highs by the end of 2010.
See the Nasdaq hourly chart here the Nasdaq 100 hourly chart here and the Dow hourly chart here
The Gold ETF failed to rally into the New Moon and partial Eclipse
The Gold ETF failed to hold the 119 level which brought enough selling to probably get us to the 2009 trend line near 115 as suspected, and if that breaks we will probably drop to the 1075 target that Tom O'Brien mentioned on CNBC in late May.
The USD will probably decline to the 80 area in July
The 30 year Bond/TLT is breaking a triangle targeting the 125/100 area
Triangles often precede the last move in a trend and we should return to the 120/95 level in July.
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Summary
Last week I expected the SPX to hold the expanding wedge near 1080 but we failed and dropped to 1040 and even lower as Plan B suspected. This week I expect the SPX to fail to get above 1040-50 and decline to 980 or so by Friday. Plan B has the SPX breaking above 1050 and rallying to 1070 or so by Friday. |
Breadth Summation Indexes (BSI)
Short Term Breadth is Neutral (-1) |
| SPX is bearish but oversold near support for week ending July 9th The SPX failed to hold support despite the somewhat oversold conditions and quickly dropped to the February lows and then the 1007 support level which may be enough to give us a rebound into the New Moon, but the 980 area would make a better low this week and the 11 day cycle falls on Thursday the 8th which is also 3 days before the New Moon and the usual place for new Moon lows. The top Tick lines are breaking the series of higher lows while continuing to make lower highs suggesting further weakness and we are close to the the top trend line that gave us sharp turns lower the last two weeks. The lower Put/Call and white Trin lines have both broken their bullish trend lines but are stalling in oversold and increasing the odds of a low this week and a rebound into the New Moon and partial Eclipse of July 11th. The bottom blue PPO line is bearish but stalling near the May 25th lows which should give us a rebound into the New Moon, but a break of the May lows by the PPO line would be very bearish and suggest we are already in a Wave 3 down to the 800 area this Fall. See the chart here Outlook is bearish to mixed for July The SPX failed to hold the expanding wedge near 1080 and broke the February lows near 1040 which then implied the targets of 1007 and probably the lower channel near 980 as well but New Moon lows usually come 3 days before and we might get a short rebound into the New Moon before we reach 980. The top blue Tick line stayed in overbought despite the decline and the new lows the last two weeks and is in a position to give us a much longer and deeper decline as it eventually heads lower. The lower red Trin line is bearish but oversold and the blue Put/Call line is bearish to mixed in the middle of the range leaving a bearish to mixed picture for July. The bottom blue PPO line continues to drop sharply towards the March 25th lows, and a break of those lows would suggest we are in a Wave 3 down that should take us to the 800 area. The most likely bearish count is that we have completed 5 Waves from the March 09 low on April 26 which is a PI cycle of 3,142 days from 9/11, and have already finished the first Wave down of three that should take us to new lows by Fall 2011, and that means we should have a fairly large counter trend rally into July. The alternative bullish count is that the rally from the March 09 low is not over and another rally has started and probably take us to marginal new highs by the end of 2010. See the chart here We have probably seen the high of the year for the 30 month cycle in January-April All indicators turned down for the 30 month cycle high of April 2010 and have broken areas of support that held since the March 09 lows suggesting we have seen the highs of the year and the break of the February lows tends to confirm. We had a series of 4 month lows starting with March 08 but the expected March 2010 low came one month early on February 5th and the indicators are now closer to a 3 month cycle suggesting weakness into the Fall. The top red McClellan Summation line made its second lower low into the Bear zone and is now headed back down in a bearish way but has yet to make new lows to signal a move to the SPX 800 area. The top blue Tick line and the lower blue Call/Put line are also above their June 8th levels for now but the lower red inverted Trin line climbed all the way back into overbought already suggesting further declines into Fall. The 30 month cycle has marked many important double tops and bottoms in the last decade and correctly suggested a January and April double top like we saw 4 x 30 months ago in 2000, but also 30 months ago in July and October 07, which was a mirror image of the July and October lows of 2002 exactly 2 x 30 months before. From this high, we should decline into a double bottom in April and July 2011 and those dates fall around the PI cycle low date of mid June 2011 when anchored with the crash of 1987, or mid July 2011 when anchored with the crash of 1929. See the chart here | |
Moon, Cycles and More
Indicators are bearish to mixed into New Moon with a possible Moon Fractal match with November 08
| New Moons are statistical highs except when the Full Moon low fails like this time and then the low often comes three days before the New Moon which is Thursday the 8th. New Moon rebounds can be very sharp and short lived as seen with the New Moon of last May 13th seen on the chart below, or on November 28, 08 which is shown in the Moon Fractal charts on the right. The possible Fractal on the right is behaving like a smaller version of the late November 08 low and that implies a low below 1000 this week before a very sharp rally back to 1070 by mid July or so and then a pull back to the 1040 area around Options Expiration on the 16th and that is one volatile and treacherous path if the fractal plays out. See a larger Moon chart here  |
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| courtesy of StockCharts.com | |
The Price-Time Geometry and PI make April 26,10 potentially major
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The next 4 year cycle low is due near September 2010The next 3,142 days or 8.6 year PI cycle low is due in June 2011The 10 year cycle of highs in 87, 97, 07 and lows of 82, 92, 02 is due in 2012The 40 year cycle of highs in 29, 69, 09 and lows of 34, 74 is due in 2014
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Market Breadth
Short Term Breadth is Neutral (-1)
The top Ticks turned bullish from support but are back at resistance alreadyThe lower Put/Call and white Trin are bearish but stalling in very oversoldThe PPO and StochRSI are bearish but are stalling after 5 waves into oversold
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The New Highs and Lows are bearish but at trend line and near a triple bottom
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The Up and Down Volume are bearish but the ratio is getting very oversold
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The 5 and 40 day Trin are bearish but the 5 day is turning in very oversold
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Medium Term Breadth is Bearish (-5)
The top Trin line is bearish but is spiking into record oversold levelsThe middle Put/Call line is turning bearish from support in the Bear zoneThe lower Tick line is turning bearish from previous bear market resistance
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The Volatility turned bearish by breaking above resistance near the 29 level
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Stocks above their 50/200 day MA are bearish and making some new lows
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Stocks on a Point and Figure buy signal are bearish but no new lows yet
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The McClellans turned bearish from the top A/D trend resistance but no new lows yet
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Long Term Breadth is Bearish (-3)
The Nyse Down Volume crossed above Up volume in a bearish way but the Nasdaq is close
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The Cumulative New Highs and Lows are turning bearish but still strong for nowThe McClellan Summation and StochRSI have both fallen below zero in the Bear zone
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The Yield Curve is very bearish but improving, and the US Dollar and Gold are bearish
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Equities
The SPX is bearish below 1040 on Tuesday
The SPX made a slightly higher low on Friday after the Jobs Report without the Census workers was not bad enough to give us new lows and then turned sharply lower from 1030 and the top parallel channel we built last week, but we did break a few resistance lines and will probably test the April middle channel and June down trend lines near 1040 on Monday before heading lower to the 980 area by the end of the week. The top blue Tick lines are making higher lows but flat to lower highs which has led to failed rebounds and new lows lately suggesting new lows unless the Tick lines start making higher highs. The lower Put/Call and white Trin lines are not much help lately, except when they leave high spikes which seem to precede short term lows by a day or so, but these high spikes are a sign this market is driven by high emotions. The bottom blue PPO line made a higher low and high on Thursday and Friday leaving a divergence that often precedes short term lows but the PPO must exceed the June 27th rebound high to show some strength and it has not so far. The 6 day magenta and 2 day yellow cycles are bullish for Tuesday but the 8 hour light blue cycle suggest it will already start to weaken as we get closer to the end of day. See the NDX 1 minute chart here and the Dow 1 minute chart here
Click for Printable Chart 
courtesy of StockCharts.com
6 day cycle high on Tuesday and low on Thursday-Friday
The last move up of 8 days into the Summer Solstice of June 21st suggests a possible low last Thursday near an April channel line, but the lower April channel is closer to 980 and would make a much better low this week. The top Tick lines keep turning up from oversold lows but the price makes little gains, and until that pattern changes we should remain careful of failed rebounds and lower lows. The lower Put/Call and white Trin lines have both spiked very high suggesting a short term low is close and a move back above the February lows near 1040 would be the first sign a move higher to 1070 is starting. The bottom blue PPO line is making lower highs and lows but came close to reversing that trend last Friday and a move above 1040 would do it, but the Tick lines and 6 day cycle suggest we will drop to the lower April channel line near 980 first.
Click for Printable Chart 
courtesy of StockCharts.com
SPX is bearish but oversold near support for week ending July 9th
The SPX failed to hold support despite the somewhat oversold conditions and quickly dropped to the February lows and then the 1007 support level which may be enough to give us a rebound into the New Moon, but the 980 area would make a better low this week and the 11 day cycle falls on Thursday the 8th which is also 3 days before the New Moon and the usual place for new Moon lows. The top Tick lines are breaking the series of higher lows while continuing to make lower highs suggesting further weakness and we are close to the the top trend line that gave us sharp turns lower the last two weeks. The lower Put/Call and white Trin lines have both broken their bullish trend lines but are stalling in oversold and increasing the odds of a low this week and a rebound into the New Moon and partial Eclipse of July 11th. The bottom blue PPO line is bearish but stalling near the May 25th lows which should give us a rebound into the New Moon, but a break of the May lows by the PPO line would be very bearish and suggest we are already in a Wave 3 down to the 800 area this Fall. See the NDX 10 minute chart here and the Dow 10 minute chart here
Click for Printable Chart 
courtesy of StockCharts.com
Outlook is bearish to mixed for July
The SPX failed to hold the expanding wedge near 1080 and broke the February lows near 1040 which then implied the targets of 1007 and probably the lower channel near 980 as well but New Moon lows usually come 3 days before and we might get a short rebound into the New Moon before we reach 980. The top blue Tick line stayed in overbought despite the decline and the new lows the last two weeks and is in a position to give us a much longer and deeper decline as it eventually heads lower. The lower red Trin line is bearish but oversold and the blue Put/Call line is bearish to mixed in the middle of the range leaving a bearish to mixed picture for July. The bottom blue PPO line continues to drop sharply towards the March 25th lows, and a break of those lows would suggest we are in a Wave 3 down that should take us to the 800 area. The most likely bearish count is that we have completed 5 Waves from the March 09 low on April 26 which is a PI cycle of 3,142 days from 9/11, and have already finished the first Wave down of three that should take us to new lows by Fall 2011, and that means we should have a fairly large counter trend rally into July. The alternative bullish count is that the rally from the March 09 low is not over and another rally has started and probably take us to marginal new highs by the end of 2010. See the Nasdaq hourly chart here the Nasdaq 100 hourly chart here and the Dow hourly chart here
Click for Printable Chart 
courtesy of StockCharts.com
We have probably seen the high of the year for the 30 month cycle in January-April
All indicators turned down for the 30 month cycle high of April 2010 and have broken areas of support that held since the March 09 lows suggesting we have seen the highs of the year and the break of the February lows tends to confirm. We had a series of 4 month lows starting with March 08 but the expected March 2010 low came one month early on February 5th and the indicators are now closer to a 3 month cycle suggesting weakness into the Fall. The top red McClellan Summation line made its second lower low into the Bear zone and is now headed back down in a bearish way but has yet to make new lows to signal a move to the SPX 800 area. The top blue Tick line and the lower blue Call/Put line are also above their June 8th levels for now but the lower red inverted Trin line climbed all the way back into overbought already suggesting further declines into Fall. The 30 month cycle has marked many important double tops and bottoms in the last decade and correctly suggested a January and April double top like we saw 4 x 30 months ago in 2000, but also 30 months ago in July and October 07, which was a mirror image of the July and October lows of 2002 exactly 2 x 30 months before. From this high, we should decline into a double bottom in April and July 2011 and those dates fall around the PI cycle low date of mid June 2011 when anchored with the crash of 1987, or mid July 2011 when anchored with the crash of 1929. |
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Commodities
Oil went parabolic, but Gold and others have yet to follow like in 1920, 1980 and 2040?
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The CRB/DBC will probably reach 265/23 by the new Moon of mid July
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The CRB should turn down near 290 for the 17-18 month cycle high
Commodities are close to the 2006 lows near 290 and should turn down into the first half of 2010 from the 17-18 month cycle high, but the pull back is likely to be shallow. |
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The Gold ETF failed to rally into the New Moon and partial Eclipse
The Gold ETF failed to hold the 119 level which brought enough selling to probably get us to the 2009 trend line near 115 as suspected, and if that breaks we will probably drop to the 1075 target that Tom O'Brien mentioned on CNBC in late May.
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courtesy of StockCharts.com
The Gold ETF broke 119 and will likely test the 2009 trend line near 115 in July
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Gold should pull back to the 1150 level and probably 1050 by Fall-Year end
Gold will probably pull back to the 1050 area by September-November for the 8 and 22 month cycle lows before making new highs in 2011 for the 8 year cycle high of January 2012. |
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A #1 Gold Timer Digest - Tom O'Brien calls for a top in Gold on CNBC in late May
Tom O'Brien made a call for a top in Gold on CNBC in late May and since he is #1 Gold Timer Digest we should take his warning seriously and he is right to be cautious. However the best fit for long term Fibonacci extensions from the 1999 low with the September 1980 and May 2006 highs of 735, the March 2008 high of 1033 and the 1980 previous all time high is suggesting 1500 as a possible end to the 10 year move up and it looks like it should reach it before the next 8 year cycle high of 2012, even though the real end of the Gold Bull should only come with the 40 year cycle high of 2020. |
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Silver will probably pull back to the 16 or even 15 area in July
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Silver should top near 20 by January 2010 for the 11-22 month cycle highs
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Gold Miners should pull back towards 50 in July
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Gold Stocks should top near 200 and drop to 120-30 from the 28 month cycle high
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Oil/USO will probably test the 65/30 area or even the 60 level in July
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Oil should turn down from the 06 highs of 80 and the 30 year cycle high of 09
Oil is between the 75-85 levels which have marked the 100, 200, 400, and 800% gains from the 1999 low, and a logical place to turn for the 30 year cycle high. The most probable count is that the almost 10 year rally from early 1999 to late 2008 is over and Oil will correct for a minimum of 25 to 50% in time, or 2.5 to 5 years into 2011 to 2014, but the 36 level will probably hold. |
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Currencies
The Yen is strongest since 1950 and is probably in a multi-year Bull market
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The USD will probably decline to the 80 area in July
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The USD should top near 85-90 for the 4.25 year cycle high of June 2010
The US Dollar turned down from the 90 area for the 4.25 year cycle high of June 2010 and will most likely pull back deeply into the 70's and even make new lows if we keep following the last 17 year cycle pattern. |
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The USD should pull back deeply as it did one 17 year cycle ago
The current period in the 17 year cycle is a lot like the early 1990's and the US Dollar could test and even breach the 70 area in 2010 if we continue to follow the pattern. |
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The Yen should rally towards the 115-123 area in 2010
The Yen pulled back sharply from the recent highs and middle channel resistance near 115, but will probably rally again in 2010 to test the highs or even reach the all time highs of 123 by mid or late 2010 for the 17.2 year PI cycle high. |
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The Yen should reach 123 for the 17.2 year PI cycle high of late 2010
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The CDN Dollar should top below 100 and drop towards 85 into late 2010
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Bonds and Rates
The 30 year Bond/TLT is breaking a triangle targeting the 125/100 area
Triangles often precede the last move in a trend and we should return to the 120/95 level in July.
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The 30 year Bond made an early low and should rally towards 130-35 by year end |
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