AstroCycle Analysis of 9/17/10
The next 7-8 week Tick cycle high is due near September 21st. see chart here
- Lows May 19 (24), Jul 9 (1), Aug 26th and Highs Apr 26, Jun 14 (18), Aug 3 and Sep 21st?
- A weekly close below 1090 for now should confirm a 7-8 week cycle high.
The next 3.5 week cycle low is due near the Full Moon of the 23rd. see chart here
- Highs Jun 16 (18), Jul 14, Aug 10, Sep 7th? and Lows Jul 1, Jul 29, Aug 24 and Sep 22nd?
- A close below 1110 for now should confirm a 3.5 week cycle high.
The Moon cycles are turning bearish into Friday the 24th. see chart here
- First low for the Moon in Capricorn on Sep 15th and both lows for the Moon in Taurus and 200 degrees to Sun on Sep 24th?
- A weekly close below 1100 for now should confirm a New Moon high.
The 4 month or 114 day PI cycle low is expected near September 28th. see chart here
- Feb 12 Low, Apr 10 High, Jun 6 Low, Aug 2 High, Sep 28 Low? see table here
- A weekly close above 1130 should invalidate the Sep 28 Low.
The 3 year cycle low often extends into September 2010. see chart here
- Lows in late Aug 98, mid Sep 01, mid Aug 04, mid Aug 07 and Aug-Sep 10?
- A weekly close above 1150 should confirm the 3 year Low.
The 4 year Election cycle low normally extends into October 2010. see chart here
- Except for 1986 and 2006 most 4 year lows were deep.
- A weekly close above 1170 should confirm the 4 year Low.
The 11 month or 3 x 114 day PI cycle low is expected near January 2010. see chart here
- Highs in Oct 07, Sep 08, Aug 09, Jul 2010 and Lows late Mar 08, early Mar 09, Feb 2010 and Jan 2011?
- A weekly close above 1170 should invalidate the January 2010 Low.
The 30-60 month cycle low is expected in April and July 2011. see chart here
- Jan-Apr 00, Jul-Oct 02, Jul-Oct 07 and Apr-Jul 2011?
- A weekly close below 1000 should confirm the April 30 month high.
The 8.6 year PI cycle low is expected in June 2011. see chart here
- CRB High in 1980, Nikkei in 89, USA in 98 (00) and Global in 07
The years from 7 to 2 of the Decennial cycle are dangerous until 2012. see chart here
- Highs in 87, 97, 07 and Lows in 82, 92, 02 and 2012?
The 40 year cycle peaked in 2009 and the next low is due in 2014. see chart here
- Highs in 29, 69, 09 and lows of 34, 74 is due in 2014?
Gold should pull back from the highs to 1150 by October and probably 1050 by November
The next 8 week cycle low is due near September 23rd but probably delayed. see chart here
- Highs in early Jan, Mar, May, late June and late Aug?, Lows in early Feb, late Mar, May, Jul and Sep 23rd?
The next 7.5 month cycle low is due near September 20th but probably delayed. see chart here
- Highs in Jul 08, Feb 09, Oct 09, May 10 and Jan 11?, Lows in Nov 08, Jun 09, Feb 10 and Sep 20th?
The next 5.5 month cycle high is due near October 15th but will probably be a lower high. see chart here
- Lows in Aug 09, Feb 09, Jul 09 and Jan 11?, Highs in Nov 09, May 10 and Oct 15th?
- A weekly close below 1200 would confirm the 5.5 month cycle will be a lower high.
The next 22 month cycle low is due near November 2010. see chart here
- Highs in Apr 06, Feb 08, Dec 09 and Oct 2011?, Lows in Mar 07, Jan 09, Nov 2010?
- A weekly close above 1300 should confirm the 22 month cycle Low.
The 8 year cycle high is due near January 2012. see chart here
- Lows in 1984, 1992, 2000, 2008, 2016? and Highs in 1980, 1988, 1996, 2004 and 2012?
The 40 year cycle bottomed in 2000 and the next high is due in 2020. see chart here
- 1920 High, 40 Low, 60 Low (inversion?), 80 High, 2000 Low and 2020 High?
Silver should pull back to the 16 area for the 5.5 year cycle high of August 2010
The next 3 month cycle low is due in early October. see chart here
- Highs in early May 10, early Aug 10, early Dec 2010? and Lows in early Jul 10, and early Oct 2010?
The next 7 month cycle high is due in late November. see chart here
- Lows in Jul 09, Feb 10, Aug 10, Mar 2011? and Highs in Oct 09, May 10 and late Nov 2010?
The next 22 month cycle low is due near November 2010. see chart here
- Highs in Apr 06, Feb 08, Dec 09 and Oct 2011?, Lows in Mar 07, Jan 09, Nov 2010?
- A weekly close above 22 should confirm the 22 month cycle Low.
The next 5.5 year cycle high is due near August 2010 but probably delayed. see chart here
- Lows in Aug 85, Feb 81, Aug 96, Feb 02, Aug 07, Feb 2013?, and Highs in Feb 83, Aug 88, Feb 94, Aug 99, Feb 05 and Aug 2010?
- A weekly close below 19 should confirm the 5.5 year cycle High.
Oil should fail to break above 78-80 and decline to the 58-60 area or worse by October and December
The next 7 week cycle low is due near October 8th. see chart here
- Highs near Apr 27, Jun 18, Aug 2, Sep 16 and Lows near May 24, Jul 10, Aug 25 and Oct 8?
- A close below 73 should confirm the 7-8 week cycle high.
The next 4 month cycle low is due in early October. see chart here
- Highs in early Apr, early Aug? and Lows in early Feb, early June and early October?
- A close above 78 would invalidate the 4 month cycle Low.
The next 12 month cycle low is due near December 2010. see chart here
- Highs in Jul 07, Jul 08, Jul 09, Jul 2010?, and Lows in Dec 06, Dec 07, Dec 08, Dec 09 and Dec 2010?
- A weekly close above 83 would invalidate the 12 month cycle Low.
The next 24 month cycle low is due near December 2010. see chart here
- Highs in Dec 07, Dec 09, Dec 2011?, and Lows in Dec 06, Dec 08, and Dec 2010?
- A weekly close above 83 would invalidate the 24 month cycle Low.
The next 5 year cycle high is due in September 2010 and July 2011. see chart here
- Lows in 1994, 1999, 2004, 2009, 2013? and Highs in 1990-91, 1996, 2000-01, 2005-06 and 2010-11?
The 30 year cycle high of 2009 was early and the next low is due in 2024. see chart here
- Highs in 1919, 1949, 1979 and 2009? and Lows in 1834, 1964, 1994 and 2024?
The USD should struggle towards 85 or 87 by the early October and mid November cycle highs
The next 4 month cycle high is due in early October. see chart here
- Lows in late Nov 09, Mar 10, Jul and Nov 10?, Highs in early Feb, Jun, and Oct 10?
- A close below 81 should confirm the 4 month cycle high.
The next 15 month cycle low is due near January 2011. see chart here
- Highs in Nov 07, Feb 09, May 10 and Aug 2011?, Lows in Jul 08, Oct 09 and Jan 2011?
- A weekly close above 87 should invalidate the next 15 month cycle low.
The next 2 year cycle high is due near November 15th. see chart here
- Lows in Nov 07, Nov 09 and Nov 2011?, Highs in Nov 06, Nov 08, and Nov 15th?
- A weekly close below 80 should invalidate the next 2 year cycle high.
The next 4.25 year cycle low is due in 2012. see chart here
- Highs in 1997, 01, 06 and 2010?, Lows in 1995, 99, 04, 08 and 2012?
- A weekly close above 93 should invalidate the next 4.25 year cycle low.
The next 8 year cycle low is due in 2012. see chart here
- Highs in 1985, 93, 01, 09 and 2017?, Lows in 1988, 96, 04 and 2012?
- A weekly close above 93 should invalidate the next 8 year cycle low.
The 17 year cycle low of 2010 is likely to be a triple bottom into 2012. see chart here
- Highs in 1968, 85, 2002 and 2019?, Lows in 1978, 1991-92-95 and 2008-09-12?
- A weekly close above 93 should confirm the 17 year cycle low.
Bonds are making the high of the year and should pull back in a choppy way but stay above 125 until 2011
The next 8 week cycle low is due in late September. see chart here
- Highs in early May, July, late August and Lows in early April, June, late July and late September?
- A weekly close above 135 for now should confirm the 8 week cycle low.
The next 3 month cycle low is due in early October. see chart here
- Highs in late Feb, May, and August? Lows in early Apr, July and October?
- A weekly close below 128 should confirm the 3 month cycle high.
The next 10 month cycle low is due near February 2011. see chart here
- Highs in late Dec 08, Oct 09 and Aug 2010?, Lows in early Aug 08, Jun 09, Apr 10 and Feb 2011?
- A weekly close below 128 should confirm the 10 month cycle high.
The next 12 month cycle highs are near mid September and mid December. see chart here
- Low in mid June 08 and 09 but 2 months early in April 10?, Highs in mid Sep and Dec 08, mid Sep and Dec 09, and mid Sep and Dec 10?
- A weekly close below 128 should confirm the 12 month cycle high.
The next 3-6 year cycle will probably be a high in early 2012. see chart here
- Low in 07, High in 09, low in 2010 and high in early 2012?
- A weekly close below 120 should invalidate the 3 year cycle high of 2012.
The next 8 year cycle low is due in 2014 but is not a very precise cycle. see chart here
- Highs in 1994, 2002 and 2010?, Lows in 1988, 2006 and 2014?
- A weekly close below 110 should confirm the 60 year cycle high.
The 60 year Kondratieff cycle high is due in 2010 but is not as precise as the lows. see chart here
- Lows in 1800, 1860, 1920, 1980 and 2040?, Highs in 1950 and 2010?
- A weekly close below 110 should confirm the 60 year cycle high.
Primary and Alternate Wave Count
The SPX must hold above 1120 on Monday
The SPX ran to 1131 fulfilling the first 2 targets for a September high and leaving only 1134 to turn us down before the inverse Head and Shoulders target of 1150-60 becomes the preferred high, but the Moon cycles are turning down into next Friday and the 1130 area will probably hold us back since the AAII survey is near the April 2010 levels of bullishness. The top Tick lines were making lower highs and lows but the blue Nyse Tick line is threatening to break that pattern, but we will need to see the red Nasdaq Tick line do the same and break higher if we are to see prices above 1131. The lower white Trin line and its 10 day version is turning up from very overbought but the blue Put/Call line is not that overbought and I doubt we see much weakness until mid to late next week when both Moon cycles hit their low. The bottom blue PPO line broke a multi week bullish trend but did not follow through and started to make higher lows and highs again, turning the trend back to bullish for now.
5 day low Wednesday?, Moon cycle Lows Friday?
Since the last Full Moon double low of August 25-31 the cycles have shortened to about 5 days suggesting a low Wednesday probably near 1090-1110 and another move up into next Monday, but both Moon cycles bottom on Friday and the decline could extend into Friday after a possible move up on Thursday. The top blue Tick line is still holding support despite breaking its trend line and delaying the probable pull back to the 1100 area. The bottom StochRSI and blue PPO have been weak and diverging for days but the PPO is still making higher lows and it will probably take a break below 1115 for the PPO to make a lower low and turn the trend bearish.
The SPX is overbought near resistance for the week ending Sept 24th
The SPX reached the August highs and again struggled all week with the 50% level from 2007 near 1120 on weakening momentum as seen in the bottom StochRSI, and with Call buying as seen by the dropping lower blue 5 day Put/Call line suggesting a pull back to 1090-1110 this week for the Full Moon cycle low of Thursday-Friday. The top Tick lines are making lower highs, plus the lower white Trin line is turning bearish from overbought and the bottom blue PPO line is diverging which often precedes highs and raises the odds of a serious pull back this week.
See the NDX 10 minute chart here and the Dow 10 minute chart here
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| Current Forecasts
Last week I expected the SPX to double top below 1120 on Monday and Friday but we got to 1124 on Monday and 1131 on Friday which was closer to Plan B. This week I expect the SPX to pullback from recent highs near 1130 to the 1100 area for the Full Moon by Wednesday and/or Friday. Plan B has the SPX holding 1120, breaking above 1134 and moving towards 1150 by Friday. 5 day low Wednesday?, Moon cycle Lows Friday? Since the last Full Moon double low of August 25-31 the cycles have shortened to about 5 days suggesting a low Wednesday probably near 1090-1110 and another move up into next Monday, but both Moon cycles bottom on Friday and the decline could extend into Friday after a possible move up on Thursday. The top blue Tick line is still holding support despite breaking its trend line and delaying the probable pull back to the 1100 area. The bottom StochRSI and blue PPO have been weak and diverging for days but the PPO is still making higher lows and it will probably take a break below 1115 for the PPO to make a lower low and turn the trend bearish. see chart here The SPX must hold above 1120 on Monday The SPX ran to 1131 fulfilling the first 2 targets for a September high and leaving only 1134 to turn us down before the inverse Head and Shoulders target of 1150-60 becomes the preferred high, but the Moon cycles are turning down into next Friday and the 1130 area will probably hold us back since the AAII survey is near the April 2010 levels of bullishness. The top Tick lines were making lower highs and lows but the blue Nyse Tick line is threatening to break that pattern, but we will need to see the red Nasdaq Tick line do the same and break higher if we are to see prices above 1131. The lower white Trin line and its 10 day version is turning up from very overbought but the blue Put/Call line is not that overbought and I doubt we see much weakness until mid to late next week when both Moon cycles hit their low. The bottom blue PPO line broke a multi week bullish trend but did not follow through and started to make higher lows and highs again, turning the trend back to bullish for now. see chart here |
Breadth Summation Indexes (BSI)
Daily BSI is Neutral since 2010-09-10 Weekly BSI is Bullish since 2010-09-03 Long Term BSI in a Bear Market since 2008-01-04 but came close to a Bull Market in early 2010   |
Cycles Summary
The SPX should make a Fall Equinox high near the Summer Solstice level of 1131 or near the right shoulder of 1150The next 7-8 week Tick cycle high is due near September 21st. see chart here
- Lows May 19 (24), Jul 9 (1), Aug 26th and Highs Apr 26, Jun 14 (18), Aug 3 and Sep 21st?
- A weekly close below 1090 for now should confirm a 7-8 week cycle high.
The next 3.5 week cycle low is due near the Full Moon of the 23rd. see chart here
- Highs Jun 16 (18), Jul 14, Aug 10, Sep 7th? and Lows Jul 1, Jul 29, Aug 24 and Sep 22nd?
- A close below 1110 for now should confirm a 3.5 week cycle high.
The Moon cycles are turning bearish into Friday the 24th. see chart here
- First low for the Moon in Capricorn on Sep 15th and both lows for the Moon in Taurus and 200 degrees to Sun on Sep 24th?
- A weekly close below 1100 for now should confirm a New Moon high.
The 4 month or 114 day PI cycle low is expected near September 28th. see chart here
- Feb 12 Low, Apr 10 High, Jun 6 Low, Aug 2 High, Sep 28 Low? see table here
- A weekly close above 1130 should invalidate the Sep 28 Low.
The 3 year cycle low often extends into September 2010. see chart here
- Lows in late Aug 98, mid Sep 01, mid Aug 04, mid Aug 07 and Aug-Sep 10?
- A weekly close above 1150 should confirm the 3 year Low.
The 4 year Election cycle low normally extends into October 2010. see chart here
- Except for 1986 and 2006 most 4 year lows were deep.
- A weekly close above 1170 should confirm the 4 year Low.
The 11 month or 3 x 114 day PI cycle low is expected near January 2010. see chart here
- Highs in Oct 07, Sep 08, Aug 09, Jul 2010 and Lows late Mar 08, early Mar 09, Feb 2010 and Jan 2011?
- A weekly close above 1170 should invalidate the January 2010 Low.
The 30-60 month cycle low is expected in April and July 2011. see chart here
- Jan-Apr 00, Jul-Oct 02, Jul-Oct 07 and Apr-Jul 2011?
- A weekly close below 1000 should confirm the April 30 month high.
The 8.6 year PI cycle low is expected in June 2011. see chart here
- CRB High in 1980, Nikkei in 89, USA in 98 (00) and Global in 07
The years from 7 to 2 of the Decennial cycle are dangerous until 2012. see chart here
- Highs in 87, 97, 07 and Lows in 82, 92, 02 and 2012?
The 40 year cycle peaked in 2009 and the next low is due in 2014. see chart here
- Highs in 29, 69, 09 and lows of 34, 74 is due in 2014?
Gold should pull back from the highs to 1150 by October and probably 1050 by November
The next 8 week cycle low is due near September 23rd but probably delayed. see chart here
- Highs in early Jan, Mar, May, late June and late Aug?, Lows in early Feb, late Mar, May, Jul and Sep 23rd?
The next 7.5 month cycle low is due near September 20th but probably delayed. see chart here
- Highs in Jul 08, Feb 09, Oct 09, May 10 and Jan 11?, Lows in Nov 08, Jun 09, Feb 10 and Sep 20th?
The next 5.5 month cycle high is due near October 15th but will probably be a lower high. see chart here
- Lows in Aug 09, Feb 09, Jul 09 and Jan 11?, Highs in Nov 09, May 10 and Oct 15th?
- A weekly close below 1200 would confirm the 5.5 month cycle will be a lower high.
The next 22 month cycle low is due near November 2010. see chart here
- Highs in Apr 06, Feb 08, Dec 09 and Oct 2011?, Lows in Mar 07, Jan 09, Nov 2010?
- A weekly close above 1300 should confirm the 22 month cycle Low.
The 8 year cycle high is due near January 2012. see chart here
- Lows in 1984, 1992, 2000, 2008, 2016? and Highs in 1980, 1988, 1996, 2004 and 2012?
The 40 year cycle bottomed in 2000 and the next high is due in 2020. see chart here
- 1920 High, 40 Low, 60 Low (inversion?), 80 High, 2000 Low and 2020 High?
Silver should pull back to the 16 area for the 5.5 year cycle high of August 2010
The next 3 month cycle low is due in early October. see chart here
- Highs in early May 10, early Aug 10, early Dec 2010? and Lows in early Jul 10, and early Oct 2010?
The next 7 month cycle high is due in late November. see chart here
- Lows in Jul 09, Feb 10, Aug 10, Mar 2011? and Highs in Oct 09, May 10 and late Nov 2010?
The next 22 month cycle low is due near November 2010. see chart here
- Highs in Apr 06, Feb 08, Dec 09 and Oct 2011?, Lows in Mar 07, Jan 09, Nov 2010?
- A weekly close above 22 should confirm the 22 month cycle Low.
The next 5.5 year cycle high is due near August 2010 but probably delayed. see chart here
- Lows in Aug 85, Feb 81, Aug 96, Feb 02, Aug 07, Feb 2013?, and Highs in Feb 83, Aug 88, Feb 94, Aug 99, Feb 05 and Aug 2010?
- A weekly close below 19 should confirm the 5.5 year cycle High.
Oil should fail to break above 78-80 and decline to the 58-60 area or worse by October and December
The next 7 week cycle low is due near October 8th. see chart here
- Highs near Apr 27, Jun 18, Aug 2, Sep 16 and Lows near May 24, Jul 10, Aug 25 and Oct 8?
- A close below 73 should confirm the 7-8 week cycle high.
The next 4 month cycle low is due in early October. see chart here
- Highs in early Apr, early Aug? and Lows in early Feb, early June and early October?
- A close above 78 would invalidate the 4 month cycle Low.
The next 12 month cycle low is due near December 2010. see chart here
- Highs in Jul 07, Jul 08, Jul 09, Jul 2010?, and Lows in Dec 06, Dec 07, Dec 08, Dec 09 and Dec 2010?
- A weekly close above 83 would invalidate the 12 month cycle Low.
The next 24 month cycle low is due near December 2010. see chart here
- Highs in Dec 07, Dec 09, Dec 2011?, and Lows in Dec 06, Dec 08, and Dec 2010?
- A weekly close above 83 would invalidate the 24 month cycle Low.
The next 5 year cycle high is due in September 2010 and July 2011. see chart here
- Lows in 1994, 1999, 2004, 2009, 2013? and Highs in 1990-91, 1996, 2000-01, 2005-06 and 2010-11?
The 30 year cycle high of 2009 was early and the next low is due in 2024. see chart here
- Highs in 1919, 1949, 1979 and 2009? and Lows in 1834, 1964, 1994 and 2024?
The USD should struggle towards 85 or 87 by the early October and mid November cycle highs
The next 4 month cycle high is due in early October. see chart here
- Lows in late Nov 09, Mar 10, Jul and Nov 10?, Highs in early Feb, Jun, and Oct 10?
- A close below 81 should confirm the 4 month cycle high.
The next 15 month cycle low is due near January 2011. see chart here
- Highs in Nov 07, Feb 09, May 10 and Aug 2011?, Lows in Jul 08, Oct 09 and Jan 2011?
- A weekly close above 87 should invalidate the next 15 month cycle low.
The next 2 year cycle high is due near November 15th. see chart here
- Lows in Nov 07, Nov 09 and Nov 2011?, Highs in Nov 06, Nov 08, and Nov 15th?
- A weekly close below 80 should invalidate the next 2 year cycle high.
The next 4.25 year cycle low is due in 2012. see chart here
- Highs in 1997, 01, 06 and 2010?, Lows in 1995, 99, 04, 08 and 2012?
- A weekly close above 93 should invalidate the next 4.25 year cycle low.
The next 8 year cycle low is due in 2012. see chart here
- Highs in 1985, 93, 01, 09 and 2017?, Lows in 1988, 96, 04 and 2012?
- A weekly close above 93 should invalidate the next 8 year cycle low.
The 17 year cycle low of 2010 is likely to be a triple bottom into 2012. see chart here
- Highs in 1968, 85, 2002 and 2019?, Lows in 1978, 1991-92-95 and 2008-09-12?
- A weekly close above 93 should confirm the 17 year cycle low.
Bonds are making the high of the year and should pull back in a choppy way but stay above 125 until 2011
The next 8 week cycle low is due in late September. see chart here
- Highs in early May, July, late August and Lows in early April, June, late July and late September?
- A weekly close above 135 for now should confirm the 8 week cycle low.
The next 3 month cycle low is due in early October. see chart here
- Highs in late Feb, May, and August? Lows in early Apr, July and October?
- A weekly close below 128 should confirm the 3 month cycle high.
The next 10 month cycle low is due near February 2011. see chart here
- Highs in late Dec 08, Oct 09 and Aug 2010?, Lows in early Aug 08, Jun 09, Apr 10 and Feb 2011?
- A weekly close below 128 should confirm the 10 month cycle high.
The next 12 month cycle highs are near mid September and mid December. see chart here
- Low in mid June 08 and 09 but 2 months early in April 10?, Highs in mid Sep and Dec 08, mid Sep and Dec 09, and mid Sep and Dec 10?
- A weekly close below 128 should confirm the 12 month cycle high.
The next 3-6 year cycle will probably be a high in early 2012. see chart here
- Low in 07, High in 09, low in 2010 and high in early 2012?
- A weekly close below 120 should invalidate the 3 year cycle high of 2012.
The next 8 year cycle low is due in 2014 but is not a very precise cycle. see chart here
- Highs in 1994, 2002 and 2010?, Lows in 1988, 2006 and 2014?
- A weekly close below 110 should confirm the 60 year cycle high.
The 60 year Kondratieff cycle high is due in 2010 but is not as precise as the lows. see chart here
- Lows in 1800, 1860, 1920, 1980 and 2040?, Highs in 1950 and 2010?
- A weekly close below 110 should confirm the 60 year cycle high.
Wave Counting, Fractals and More
Primary and Alternate Wave Count
| The most likely count is bearish and implies that we have completed an ABCDE on April 26, 10 which is a PI cycle of 3,142 days from the 9/11 low as seen in the two charts just below, and we have now completed the first drop of three that should take us to new lows by Fall 2011. The move from the March 09 lows can be labeled as an ABC or an ABC-X-ABC if you wish, but I prefer the ABCDE labeling for the simplicity and balance of the waves even without a perfect triangle. The strength of the rally from 1040 had the character of a Wave 3 or C and that means the first wave down probably ended in early July and Wave C should end near the previous highs of, 1130, the left shoulder of 1150, or even 1160 if equal to Wave A, but much higher than 1170 which is the May high and the bullish alternative will become more likely. The less likely alternative count is bullish and implies that the rally from the March 09 low is not over and we are now in the beginning stages of a Wave 3 that will take us to test the highs near 1230 and probably make marginal new highs by the end of 2010, but we must get above 1170 for that to happen. |  |
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| The Geometry and PI which made April 26,10 significant points to a September low
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| A Tale of Two Heads near Crisis levels
The September 1st low was potentially a right shoulder in a 3 month inverse Head and Shoulders pattern targeting the 1160 area, but a larger 9 month Head and Shoulder pattern has been evolving in 2010 and its right shoulder is in the same 1160 area making this area a focus for both the Bulls and the Bears. This area is in the middle of the key levels during the Lehman Crisis with the 62% level near 1,228 stopping the SPX in April and the 50% level near 1121 turning the SPX in June and August, but the other levels of 1110, 1134, 1150 and 1170 were all significant during the Credit Crisis preceding the Crash of 08.   |
Safe Blue Chips or Risky QQQQ Chips?
The Dow has consistently been a Safe Haven as it declines less in Bear markets and an over performing Dow is a sign someone is getting defensive. The opposite is true with the QQQQ which tends to overperform the most near tops and the QQQQ have been outperforming for the last 18 months setting up ideal conditions for a sharp crash like move down into the next 30 month and 8.6 year PI cycle low of June 2011.  |
Market Breadth
Short Term Breadth is Neutral (-1)
| The top Ticks are turning bearish from a 5 waves spike high The lower blue Put/Call is bullish but in a fifth wave into overbought The lower white Trin is turning bearish like near previous tops The PPO and StochRSI are turning bearish and diverging near previous PPO highs |
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| The New Highs and Lows are bullish but the New Highs are stalling a bit
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| The Up and Down Volume with Ratio are turning bearish near expiration
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| The 10 and 55 day Trin are bullish but the 10 day is turning in very overbought
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Medium Term Breadth is Bullish (5)
| The Volatility is turning bullish but is wedging and not breaking below yet
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| Stocks above their 50/200 day MA are bullish but still below July highs
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| Stocks on a Point and Figure buy signal are bullish but still below July highs
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| The McClellans are bullish but the A/D lines are turning a bit in mildly overbought
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| The top Trin line is turning bullish from very oversold but no lower low yet The middle Put/Call line is turning bullish but stalling a bit near the Bear line The lower Tick line is turning bullish but getting mildly overbought |
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Long Term Breadth is Bearish (-1)
| The red Nyse and Nasdaq Down Volume crossed above the blue Up volume in a bearish way
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| The Cumulative New Highs and Lows are bearish but turning up again The McClellan Summation turned positive but the StochRSI is still negative |
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| Gold is bearish and the Yield Curve is still critical but the US Dollar is improving
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Equities
The SPX must hold above 1120 on Monday
The SPX ran to 1131 fulfilling the first 2 targets for a September high and leaving only 1134 to turn us down before the inverse Head and Shoulders target of 1150-60 becomes the preferred high, but the Moon cycles are turning down into next Friday and the 1130 area will probably hold us back since the AAII survey is near the April 2010 levels of bullishness. The top Tick lines were making lower highs and lows but the blue Nyse Tick line is threatening to break that pattern, but we will need to see the red Nasdaq Tick line do the same and break higher if we are to see prices above 1131. The lower white Trin line and its 10 day version is turning up from very overbought but the blue Put/Call line is not that overbought and I doubt we see much weakness until mid to late next week when both Moon cycles hit their low. The bottom blue PPO line broke a multi week bullish trend but did not follow through and started to make higher lows and highs again, turning the trend back to bullish for now.
Click for Printable Chart 
courtesy of StockCharts.com
5 day low Wednesday?, Moon cycle Lows Friday?
Since the last Full Moon double low of August 25-31 the cycles have shortened to about 5 days suggesting a low Wednesday probably near 1090-1110 and another move up into next Monday, but both Moon cycles bottom on Friday and the decline could extend into Friday after a possible move up on Thursday. The top blue Tick line is still holding support despite breaking its trend line and delaying the probable pull back to the 1100 area. The bottom StochRSI and blue PPO have been weak and diverging for days but the PPO is still making higher lows and it will probably take a break below 1115 for the PPO to make a lower low and turn the trend bearish.
Click for Printable Chart 
courtesy of StockCharts.com
The SPX is overbought near resistance for the week ending Sept 24th
The SPX reached the August highs and again struggled all week with the 50% level from 2007 near 1120 on weakening momentum as seen in the bottom StochRSI, and with Call buying as seen by the dropping lower blue 5 day Put/Call line suggesting a pull back to 1090-1110 this week for the Full Moon cycle low of Thursday-Friday. The top Tick lines are making lower highs, plus the lower white Trin line is turning bearish from overbought and the bottom blue PPO line is diverging which often precedes highs and raises the odds of a serious pull back this week.
See the NDX 10 minute chart here and the Dow 10 minute chart here
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| Outlook is bullish to mixed for September
The SPX held the February-May-June lows and Fib 75% level near 1040 and rebounded to the top April channel near 1100 but the 1040 low is also a potential right shoulder of a 3 month inverse Head and Shoulders pattern that targets the 1160 area by late September. However, many longer term cycle lows are due in September and October and a larger 9 month Head and Shoulders pattern that evolved in 2010 targets the 950 area by October and this rally may abort at any time in September near one of the Crisis levels of 2007 between 1130 and 1170. The top blue 10 day Tick line is building a right shoulder with the July and August highs and the lower red 10 day Trin line is already turning bearish, but the blue 15 day Put/Call line is still bullish and could drop quite a bit more before being overbought suggesting a top like the April and August highs with choppy trading for the end of September. |
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| We have probably seen the high of the year for the 30 month cycle in January-April
All indicators turned down for the 30 month cycle high of April 2010 and have broken support that held since the March 09 lows suggesting we have seen the highs of the year and a lasting break of the February lows would confirm. We had a series of 4 month lows or a bit less and closer to 365 x 0.3141 = 114 days starting with the February 27, 07 high as seen in the table here , suggesting a low in the Fall near 950 or lower but this short cycle can drift and invert as it appears to be doing now. Its third Harmonic which is close to 11 months and gave us highs in Oct 07, Sep 08, Aug 09, July 2010 and Lows in late Mar 08, early Mar 09, Feb 2010 is suggesting the next major low should be close to late Jan 2011?. All indicators turned up from the June 8th low but are still lower than the August high for now and are testing the Bull-Bear line which should turn them back down for the many cycle lows going into 2011. The 30 month cycle has marked many important double tops and bottoms in the last decade and correctly suggested a January and April double top like we saw 4 x 30 months ago in 2000, but also 30 months ago in July and October 07, which was a mirror image of the July and October lows of 2002 exactly 2 x 30 months before. Keep in mind that August 10th is 17 months from the March 10, 09 major low and 34 months from the October 10, 07 major high, and 22 months from the October 10, 08 Panic low and potentially significant. From this high, we should decline into a double bottom in May and August 2011 and those dates fall around the PI cycle low date of mid June 2011 when anchored with the crash of 1987, or mid July 2011 when anchored with the crash of 1929. See the Nasdaq daily chart here and the Dow daily chart here |
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Commodities
| Oil went parabolic, but Gold and others have yet to follow like in 1920, 1980 and 2040?
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| The CRB should rebound to 300-20 by the 5.5 year cycle high of late 2011
The 55 year Kondratiev cycle in Commodities gave us lows in 1822, 1877, 1932, and 1987 but we have revisited the 200 level from 1986 in 1992, 1999, 2001 and even 2009 which is a sign this bullish K-Wave in Commodities into the next projected high of 1812, 1867, 1922, 1977 and 2032 should be weaker than previous ones. |
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| Gold Stocks should drop to 120-30 by Fall for the 7 and 28 month cycles
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| Gold Stocks will probably decline to the 100 level into 2011 along with the market
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