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AstroCycle Analysis of October 1, 2010

4已有 16839 次阅读  2010-10-03 16:48
AstroCycle Analysis of October 1, 2010  
Current Forecasts
Last week I expected the SPX to pull back 25 pts or so from a high on Monday near 1150-60 and we pulled back 20 pts on Tuesday and Thursday from 1150 and 1157.
This week I expect the SPX to pull back to 1100-20 from an early week high near 1150-60.
Plan B has the SPX breaking and holding above 1150 on its way to a New Moon high near 1170 by Friday.

The SPX must stay below 1150 on Monday
The SPX broke above 1150 once last Thursday and must break below 1140 soon to confirm distribution at 1150, or the next break above 1150 will probably send us to 1160-70 rather quickly. The top Tick lines have been more or less overbought for a week and the lower blue Put/Call line is turning up from a triple bottom in a bearish way suggesting a pull back that should break 1140 on Monday as the 2 day cycle shows. The bottom blue PPO line did not make a lower low last Thursday after making a higher high last Wednesday, and unless we make a lower low soon, the PPO will be in a position to send us to 1160-70 early this week.
see chart here

6 day cycle high Tuesday? and low Friday?
Since the last Full Moon double low of August 25-31 the cycles have varied between 5-6 days suggesting a high Tuesday for the New Moon and a pull back into the end of the week, but we have a Moon cycle low on Monday and a Moon cycle high on Friday and we may get another very choppy week with down Monday, Wednesday and Thursday and up Tuesday and Friday. The top Tick lines are turning bullish from Friday's low but are getting overbought already and any early strength this week is unlikely to last all week. The lower blue Put/Call line is making lower highs and lows in a triangular fashion that should give a good move down when the Put/Call line breaks higher, but it would be more bearish if the red equity only ratio came down too. The bottom blue PPO line did not make a lower low than September 23rd to confirm a turn lower and it leaves the door open for another run to the 1160-70 area before we turn down for a while.
see chart here
Breadth Summation Indexes (BSI)
Daily BSI is Neutral since 2010-09-10
Weekly BSI is Bullish since 2010-09-03
Long Term BSI in a Bear Market since 2008-01-04
but came close to a Bull Market in early 2010




Wave Counting, Fractals, Moon and More


Primary and Alternate Wave Count

The most likely count is bearish and implies that we have completed an ABCDE on April 26, 10 which is a PI cycle of 3,142 days from the 9/11 low as seen in the two charts just below, and we have now completed the first drop of three that should take us to new lows by Fall 2011. The move from the March 09 lows can be labeled as an ABC or an ABC-X-ABC if you wish, but I prefer the ABCDE labeling for the simplicity and balance of the waves even without a perfect triangle. The strength of the rally from 1040 had the character of a Wave 3 or C and that means the first wave down probably ended in early July and Wave C should end near the left shoulder of 1150, or 1160 if equal to Wave A, and even 1170 which is the post Flash Crash high, but much higher than 1170 and the bullish alternative will become more likely. The less likely alternative count is bullish and implies that the rally from the March 09 low is not over and we are now in the middle of a Wave 3 that will take us to test the highs near 1230 and probably make marginal new highs by the end of 2010, but we must get above 1170 for that to happen.



A Tale of Two Heads near Crisis levels
The September 1st low was potentially a right shoulder in a 3 month inverse Head and Shoulders pattern targeting the 1160 area, but a larger 9 month Head and Shoulder pattern has been evolving in 2010 and its right shoulder is in the same 1160 area making this area a focus for both the Bulls and the Bears. This area is in the middle of the key levels during the Lehman Crisis with the 62% level near 1,228 stopping the SPX in April and the 50% level near 1121 turning the SPX in June and August, but the other levels of 1110, 1134, 1150 and 1170 were all significant during the Credit Crisis preceding the Crash of 08.


Safe Blue Chips or Risky QQQQ Chips?
The Dow has consistently been a Safe Haven as it declines less in Bear markets and an over performing Dow is a sign someone is getting defensive. The opposite is true with the QQQQ which tends to overperform the most near tops and the QQQQ have been outperforming for the last 18 months setting up ideal conditions for a sharp crash like move down into the next 30 month and 8.6 year PI cycle low of June 2011.




The Moon cycles are mixed to bullish into the New Moon of early October
Moon in Leo High on Friday October 1st for end of month and Moon 320 degrees to Sun Low on Monday October 4th?

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courtesy of StockCharts.com

Market Breadth


Short Term Breadth is Neutral (-1)

The top Ticks are bullish but turning from lower highs trend
The lower blue Put/Call is bullish but more overbought than early August
The lower white Trin is bearish but stalling in mildly overbought
The bottom blue PPO and StochRSI are turning bearish with lower highs and lows
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The New Highs and Lows are bullish but the Highs are still diverging
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The Up and Down Volume with Ratio are turning bearish but stalling
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The 10 and 55 day Trin are turning bearish from overbought but stalling
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Medium Term Breadth is Bullish (3)

The Volatility is turning bearish by breaking wedge a bit
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Stocks above their 50/200 day MA are bullish and breaking July highs
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Stocks on a Point and Figure buy signal are bullish but the NDX is turning
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The McClellans are bullish but turning a bit near July A/D highs and cycle
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The top Trin line is turning bullish from very oversold but no lower low yet
The middle Put/Call line is bullish but only near Bear market overbought
The lower Tick line is turning bullish but in a possible H/S in overbought
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courtesy of StockCharts.com


Long Term Breadth is Bearish (-1)

The red Nyse and Nasdaq Down Volume crossed above the blue Up volume in a bearish way
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The Cumulative New Highs and Lows are bearish but turning up again
The McClellan Summation turned positive but the StochRSI is still negative
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Gold is bearish and the Yield Curve is still critical but the US Dollar is improving
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Cycles Summary

The SPX should top between the right shoulder of 1150 and the pre 08 Crash and May Crash highs of 1170
The next 7-8 week Tick cycle low is due near October 12th.
see chart here
  -  Highs Apr 26, Jun 14 (18), Aug 3, Sep 21 (30)? and Lows May 19 (24), Jul 9 (1), Aug 26th and Oct 12th?
  -  A weekly close below 1120 for now should confirm a 7-8 week cycle high.
The 4 month or 114 day PI cycle low was expected near September 28th but seems to be inverting or fading away.
see chart here
  -  Feb 12 Low, Apr 10 High, Jun 6 Low, Aug 2 High, Sep 28 High, Nov 24? see table here
  -  A weekly close above 1130 should invalidate the Sep 28 Low.
The 4 year Election cycle low normally extends into October 2010.
see chart here
  -  Except for 1986 and 2006 most 4 year lows were deep.
  -  A weekly close above 1170 should confirm the 4 year Low.
The 11 month or 3 x 114 day PI cycle low is expected near January 2010.
see chart here
  -  Highs in Oct 07, Sep 08, Aug 09, Jul 2010 and Lows late Mar 08, early Mar 09, Feb 2010 and Jan 2011?
  -  A weekly close above 1170 should invalidate the January 2010 Low.
The 30-60 month cycle low is expected in April and July 2011.
see chart here
  -  Jan-Apr 00, Jul-Oct 02, Jul-Oct 07 and Apr-Jul 2011?
The 8.6 year PI cycle low is expected in June 2011.
see chart here
  -  CRB High in 1980, Nikkei in 89, USA in 98 (00) and Global in 07
The years from 7 to 2 of the Decennial cycle are dangerous until 2012.
see chart here
  -  Highs in 87, 97, 07 and Lows in 82, 92, 02 and 2012?
The 40 year cycle peaked in 2009 and the next low is due in 2014.
see chart here
  -  Highs in 29, 69, 09 and lows of 34, 74 is due in 2014?


Gold should pull back from around 1333 to 1150 by November and possibly 1050 by December
The next 4-8 week cycle low is due near October 13th but the 5.5h cycle is peaking October 20th.
see chart here
  -  A close below 1275 would confirm a 4-8 week cycle high.
The next 5.5 month cycle high is due near October 20th
see chart here
  -  Lows in Aug 09, Feb 09, Jul 09 and Jan 11?, Highs in Nov 09, May 10 and Oct 20th?
  -  A weekly close below 1250 would confirm a 5.5 month cycle high.
The next 22 month cycle low is due near November 2010.
see chart here
  -  Highs in Apr 06, Feb 08, Dec 09 and Oct 2011?, Lows in Mar 07, Jan 09, Nov 2010?
  -  A weekly close above 1300 should confirm the 22 month cycle Low.
The 8 year cycle high is due near January 2012.
see chart here
  -  Lows in 1984, 1992, 2000, 2008, 2016? and Highs in 1980, 1988, 1996, 2004 and 2012?
The 40 year cycle bottomed in 2000 and the next high is due in 2020.
see chart here
  -  1920 High, 40 Low, 60 Low (inversion?), 80 High, 2000 Low and 2020 High?


Silver should pull back from around 23 to the 19 area for the 5.5 year cycle high of August 2010
The next 3-6 month cycle is expected in mid November and could be an inverted low.
see chart here
  -  Lows in Jul 09, Feb 10, Aug 10, Feb 2011? and Highs in Oct 09, Apr-May 10, and Oct-Nov 2010?
The next 4-8 month cycle is expected in early October.
see chart here
  -  Lows in May 08, Oct 08, Jun 09, Feb 10, Aug 10, Dec 2010? and Highs in Mar 08, Jul 08, Feb 09, Oct 09, Jun 10 and Oct 2010?
The next 22 month cycle low is due near November 2010.
see chart here
  -  Highs in Apr 06, Feb 08, Dec 09 and Oct 2011?, Lows in Mar 07, Jan 09, Nov 2010?
  -  A weekly close above 23 should confirm the 22 month cycle Low.
The next 5.5 year cycle high is due near August 2010 but probably delayed.
see chart here
  -  Lows in Aug 85, Feb 81, Aug 96, Feb 02, Aug 07, Feb 2013?, and Highs in Feb 83, Aug 88, Feb 94, Aug 99, Feb 05 and Aug 2010?
  -  A weekly close below 21 should confirm the 5.5 year cycle High.


Oil should fail to hold above 80 and decline to the 58-60 area or worse by late December 2010
The next 12 month cycle low is due near December 2010.
see chart here
  -  Highs in Jul 07, Jul 08, Jul 09, Jul 2010?, and Lows in Dec 06, Dec 07, Dec 08, Dec 09 and Dec 2010?
  -  A weekly close above 83 would invalidate the 12 month cycle Low.
The next 24 month cycle low is due near December 2011.
see chart here
  -  Highs in Dec 07, Dec 09, Dec 2011?, and Lows in Dec 06, Dec 08, and Dec 2010?
  -  A weekly close above 83 would invalidate the 24 month cycle Low.
The next 5 year cycle high is due in September 2010 and July 2011.
see chart here
  -  Lows in 1994, 1999, 2004, 2009, 2013? and Highs in 1990-91, 1996, 2000-01, 2005-06 and 2010-11?
The 30 year cycle high of 2009 was early and the next low is due in 2024.
see chart here
  -  Highs in 1919, 1949, 1979 and 2009? and Lows in 1834, 1964, 1994 and 2024?


The USD should find support near 76 in October and rebound towards 80 by December
The next 3.5 month cycle low is due in mid October.
see chart here
  -  Highs in Feb 10, May 10, Aug 10, Dec 2010? and Lows in Dec 09, Mar 10, Jul 10 and Oct 2010?
The next 2 year cycle high is due in mid November.
see chart here
  -  Lows in Nov 07, Nov 09 and Nov 2011?, Highs in Nov 06, Nov 08, and Nov 15th?
  -  A weekly close below 80 should invalidate the next 2 year cycle high.
The next 15 month cycle low is due near January 2011.
see chart here
  -  Highs in Nov 07, Feb 09, May 10 and Aug 2011?, Lows in Jul 08, Oct 09 and Jan 2011?
  -  A weekly close above 87 should invalidate the next 15 month cycle low.
The next 4.25 year cycle low is due in 2012.
see chart here
  -  Highs in 1997, 01, 06 and 2010?, Lows in 1995, 99, 04, 08 and 2012?
  -  A weekly close above 93 should invalidate the next 4.25 year cycle low.
The next 8 year cycle low is due in 2012.
see chart here
  -  Highs in 1985, 93, 01, 09 and 2017?, Lows in 1988, 96, 04 and 2012?
  -  A weekly close above 93 should invalidate the next 8 year cycle low.
The 17 year cycle low of 2010 is likely to be a triple bottom into 2012.
see chart here
  -  Highs in 1968, 85, 2002 and 2019?, Lows in 1978, 1991-92-95 and 2008-09-12?
  -  A weekly close above 93 should confirm the 17 year cycle low.


Bonds are making the high of the year and should pull back in a choppy way but stay above 125 until 2011
The next 3 month cycle low is due in mid October 2010.
see chart here
  -  Highs in Feb 10, May 10, Aug 10, Nov 2010? and Lows in Jan 10, Apr 10, Jul 10 and Oct 2010?
The next 12 month cycle high is due in mid December.
see chart here
  -  Low in mid June 08 and 09 but 2 months early in April 10?, Highs in mid Sep and Dec 08, mid Sep and Dec 09, and Dec 2010?
  -  A weekly close below 128 should confirm the 12 month cycle high.
The next 10 month cycle low is due near February 2011.
see chart here
  -  Highs in late Dec 08, Oct 09 and Aug 2010?, Lows in early Aug 08, Jun 09, Apr 10 and Feb 2011?
  -  A weekly close below 128 should confirm the 10 month cycle high.
The next 3-6 year cycle will probably be a high in early 2012.
see chart here
  -  Low in 07, High in 09, low in 2010 and high in early 2012?
  -  A weekly close below 120 should invalidate the 3 year cycle high of 2012.
The next 8 year cycle low is due in 2014 but is not a very precise cycle.
see chart here
  -  Highs in 1994, 2002 and 2010?, Lows in 1988, 2006 and 2014?
  -  A weekly close below 110 should confirm the 60 year cycle high.
The 60 year Kondratieff cycle high is due in 2010 but is not as precise as the lows.
see chart here
  -  Lows in 1800, 1860, 1920, 1980 and 2040?, Highs in 1950 and 2010?
  -  A weekly close below 110 should confirm the 60 year cycle high.

Equities


The SPX must stay below 1150 on Monday
The SPX broke above 1150 once last Thursday and must break below 1140 soon to confirm distribution at 1150, or the next break above 1150 will probably send us to 1160-70 rather quickly. The top Tick lines have been more or less overbought for a week and the lower blue Put/Call line is turning up from a triple bottom in a bearish way suggesting a pull back that should break 1140 on Monday as the 2 day cycle shows. The bottom blue PPO line did not make a lower low last Thursday after making a higher high last Wednesday, and unless we make a lower low soon, the PPO will be in a position to send us to 1160-70 early this week.

Click for Printable Chart

courtesy of StockCharts.com



6 day cycle high Tuesday? and low Friday?
Since the last Full Moon double low of August 25-31 the cycles have varied between 5-6 days suggesting a high Tuesday for the New Moon and a pull back into the end of the week, but we have a Moon cycle low on Monday and a Moon cycle high on Friday and we may get another very choppy week with down Monday, Wednesday and Thursday and up Tuesday and Friday. The top Tick lines are turning bullish from Friday's low but are getting overbought already and any early strength this week is unlikely to last all week. The lower blue Put/Call line is making lower highs and lows in a triangular fashion that should give a good move down when the Put/Call line breaks higher, but it would be more bearish if the red equity only ratio came down too. The bottom blue PPO line did not make a lower low than September 23rd to confirm a turn lower and it leaves the door open for another run to the 1160-70 area before we turn down for a while.

Click for Printable Chart

courtesy of StockCharts.com


The SPX is overbought near resistance for the week ending Oct 8th
The SPX had a choppy week around 1150 on weakening PPO and StochRSI momentum but with rising Ticks and dropping Put/Call line suggesting an overbought pull back to 1100-20 this week from a high near 1150-60. The bottom blue PPO line is diverging by making lower highs and lows which often precedes highs like in early August and raises the odds of pull back to 1100 or lower soon until we see the PPO turn up and make a higher high.
See the
NDX 10 minute chart here and the Dow 10 minute chart here

Click for Printable Chart

courtesy of StockCharts.com



Outlook is mixed to bearish for October
The SPX held the February-May-June lows and Fib 75% level near 1040 which is a potential right shoulder of a 3 month inverse Head and Shoulders pattern that targets the 1160 area by late September. However, longer term cycle lows are due in October and a larger 9 month Head and Shoulders pattern that evolved in 2010 targets the 950 area by November and this rally may abort at any time between the left shoulder of 1150 and the 2007 trend line near 1170. The top blue 10 day Tick line is building a right shoulder with the July and August highs and the lower red 10 day Trin line is turning bearish, but the blue 15 day Put/Call line is still bullish and could drop more suggesting a top like the April and August highs with choppy trading around 1150 before a probable decline into October.
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courtesy of StockCharts.com


We have probably seen the high of the year for the 30 month cycle in January-April
All indicators turned down for the 30 month cycle high of April 2010 and have broken support that held since the March 09 lows suggesting we have seen the highs of the year and a lasting break of the February lows would confirm. We had a series of 4 month lows or a bit less and closer to 365 x 0.3141 = 114 days starting with the February 27, 07 high as seen in the
table here , suggesting a low in the Fall near 950 or lower but this short cycle can drift and invert as it appears to be doing now. Its third Harmonic which is close to 11 months and gave us highs in Oct 07, Sep 08, Aug 09, July 2010 and Lows in late Mar 08, early Mar 09, Feb 2010 is suggesting the next major low should be close to late Jan 2011?. All indicators turned up from the June 8th low but are still lower than the August high for now and are testing the Bull-Bear line which should turn them back down for the many cycle lows going into 2011. The 30 month cycle has marked many important double tops and bottoms in the last decade and correctly suggested a January and April double top like we saw 4 x 30 months ago in 2000, but also 30 months ago in July and October 07, which was a mirror image of the July and October lows of 2002 exactly 2 x 30 months before. From this April 2010 high, we should decline into a double bottom in May and August 2011 and those dates fall around the PI cycle low date of mid June 2011 when anchored with the crash of 1987, or mid July 2011 when anchored with the crash of 1929.
See the
Nasdaq daily chart here and the Dow daily chart here

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courtesy of StockCharts.com

Commodities

Oil went parabolic, but Gold and others have yet to follow like in 1920, 1980 and 2040?

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courtesy of StockCharts.com



The CRB should rebound to 300-20 by the 5.5 year cycle high of late 2011
The 55 year Kondratiev cycle in Commodities gave us lows in 1822, 1877, 1932, and 1987 but we have revisited the 200 level from 1986 in 1992, 1999, 2001 and even 2009 which is a sign this bullish K-Wave in Commodities into the next projected high of 1812, 1867, 1922, 1977 and 2032 should be weaker than previous ones.
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courtesy of StockCharts.com


Gold Stocks should drop to 120-30 by Fall for the 7 and 28 month cycles
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courtesy of StockCharts.com

Gold Stocks will probably decline to the 100 level into 2011 along with the market
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courtesy of StockCharts.com

Currencies

The Yen is strongest since 1950 and probably still in a Bull market
The US Dollar will probably start its next 8.5 year Bull market soon
The CDN Dollar is probably ending its 8 year Bull market soon

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courtesy of StockCharts.com

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