Last week's shinking Three White Soldiers paved the road for today's flash correction to the point where wave-b and wave-d are of the same size. What's next? If we count the intraday wave from 1 to 9, it's in 9 now. If we count it from a to e, it's in wave-e now. Today's strong bullish candlestick *might* actually become the Last Engulfing top. We have been waiting for a climax or the bear's capitulation. This *might* be it.
I don't know where the market really wants to go. There are infintely many possible wave count alternatives. I make my wave counts by following Elliott Wave principle with Gann's timing and pricing methodology. My preferred wave count shows how I trade and my current position. If the market proves that my preferred wave count is incorrect, maybe the alternative wave count will take over. The market is always right, so I won't insist where the market should go.
My preferred wave count is exactly in that fashion - zig zag up. Still, I don't rule out the possibility of some centra bank dumping tons of gold at this record high, or the possibility of interest rate increase - maybe not now. If it does not happen, I'll still be cautious about the possible speculator's huge liquidation before december contract's notice date - which could be the turning point of this market.
One possible variation of alternative counts is that the wave-C has ended today, which means that a big wave-[B] ended too. And the wave after that is a super big decline of wave-[C] down all the way to 950 area.
Gold may be waiting for a final thrust to set a new high and form the wave-_3 before a big correction back to previous wave-__4 ($1330-$1340 area) to form wave-_4.
So far, gold has been following 10/14/2010's intraday wave count and 10/16/2010's daily chart wave count with a good size of setting back to $1330 area, which was previous wave-__4. Now it may be forming the wave-_4. If so, next wave will be wave-_5 to challenge the all time high in order to form the wave-3 of this bull run.
Gold has shown 5 impulsive waves down, so it negated the assumption that the past few days was a corrective wave. With that said, I would like to change last week's alternative count to be the preferred one. It might not be a bad idea to establish short position if the market can bounce some 0.382-0.5 back.
发表于 2010-9-25 15:52
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