沁颍

1/15/2015

Stocks were lower again and volatile yesterday but did rally off of mid-day lows. Rising oil (/CL) and a bounce of technical levels caused the benchmark S&P 500 Index (SPX) to settle above the key $2K level after trading below $1990 at one point.  U.S. equity futures (/ES) are forecasting a moderately lower day ahead of the opening bell. Overnight, stocks futures were enjoying a solid rally before the Swiss Central Bank surprised markets by scrapping its three-year old peg of Swiss Francs to the Euro. This sent equity markets globally into free-fall as the action was not anticipated. U.S. stocks have recovered most of its losses but volatility looks like it’s here to stay.  The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose modestly on Wednesday and rallied significantly into the close as equities recovered.



Treasuries are a little higher and hit their highest level ever yesterday as demand for bonds rises. The 30-year yield fell to its lowest level on record and remains under pressure. European stocks reversed lower after the Swiss announcement and currency trading was suspended in the Franc as a result of the actions. In the U.S. today, focus will be on Jobless Claims and inflation data by way of the PPI. Earnings will also be in focus as Banking stocks are under pressure due to poor results from JPM and BAC.



Stock Stories:

Bank of America (BAC) – Withdrawn - The Banking giant posted a poor earnings report this morning. The company reported that revenues were down due to lower fixed-income profits. The shares are down slightly ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT – Producer Price Index (PPI)

7:30 am CT – Empire State Manufacturing Index

9:00 am CT – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories



Notable Earnings:   

Thursday – 1/15

Before Market:  BAC, C, LEN

After Market:  BLK, FAST, INTC, SLB



Friday – 1/16:

Before Market:  GS, PNC, STI

After Market: N/A

qzhou3

回复 16# mooncake

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wumianzhiwang

回复 17# qzhou3


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沁颍

1/16/2015

Stocks dumped again yesterday and settled below some key technical levels. The benchmark S&P 500 Index (SPX) settled below the key $2K level and today may continue the slide.  U.S. equity futures (/ES) are down sharply again ahead of the opening bell. Oil prices (/CL) recovered this morning from a deep slide yesterday but the trend is still lower.  Option volatility rose modestly again yesterday as equities fell again. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose another 4% and settled above $22 and looks to be gaining a solid base.



Treasuries are sharply higher again on heavy trading volume. The 30-year Treasury yield is sitting at its lowest level as demand is high for Bonds. There's been some back-up in Greek rates on reports some banks are seeking for Emergency Liquidity Assistance. Equities are mixed with European bourses mostly in the green, while Asian shares and U.S. equity futures are lower and the dollar (/DX) was mostly firmer. Not surprisingly, many economists are cutting Swiss growth forecasts after their actions yesterday. U.S. data includes December CPI, industrial production and preliminary January consumer sentiment figures. It will also be very interesting to hear comments from the Fed's Kocherlakota, Williams, and Bullard in the face of the SNB's move and with further declines in oil prices.



Stock Stories:

Goldman Sachs (GS) – Squid  – The Investment company posted an in-line earnings report this morning as they hit on EPS and top-line Revenue. The company CEO stated they were pleased with 2014 performance and sees continued pick-up in the global economy despite the recent volatility. The shares are down slightly ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Consumer Price Index (CPI)

8:50 am CT – Fed’s Kocherlakota Speaks

8:15 am CT – Industrial Production

8:55 am CT – Consumer Sentiment

11:00 am CT – Fed’s Williams Speaks

12:10 pm CT – Fed’s Bullard Speaks

3:00 pm CT – Treadsury Intl. Capital



Notable Earnings:   

Friday – 1/16:

Before Market:  GS, PNC, STI

After Market:  N/A



Tuesday – 1/20:

Before Market:  BHI, DAL, HAL, JNJ, MS, PETS, RF, SAP

After Market: CA, NFLX, SIX

沁颍

January 18, 2015

US Equities reversed a five day losing skid on Friday to finish the week on a high note after a solid consumer confidence number helped to calm the market.  Oil futures led the rally after the down trodden commodity showed new signs of life closing up near $49 a barrel.  The CBOE Volatility index finished just below $21 in connection with the newly found optimism after remaining 2% higher for most of the week. The 10 year benchmark continues to defy expectations with an 1.815% closing yield after a flight to safety prompted heavy demand for the last several sessions before changing course slightly on Friday.



Although markets will remain closed tomorrow in observance of Martin Luther King Day;  the balance of the week is expected to be power packed with a trifecta of global events which may likely add to the year’s early ramp up in volatility.  Tuesday will host President Obama’s State of the Union address which is rumored to have several tax changes in the works for the besieged middle class to further kick start the economy while closing loopholes for the ultra-wealthy.  Any other surprises may easily rattle markets if a more diplomatic stance isn’t extended towards a newly elected Republican lead Congress.  The World Economic Forum re-assembles in Davos Switzerland on Wednesday with many of the globe’s most dominant political and business figures present to debate many of society’s most pressing issues.  Historically,  this event has served as a platform for announcing  several business deals along with major shifts in policy.  However, the most widely anticipated news so far in 2015 will be Thursday’s prolonged decision from the ECB on some overreaching form of Quantitative Easing (QE) for the entire European Union.  Early indications signal a series of sovereign debt purchases by each member to avoid a blanket approach which would only penalize the stronger members like Germany for additional bailouts for weaker countries in the future.



Quarterly Earnings will also remain in full swing with several S&P components all slated to release during the course of the week.  So far mixed results have prevailed with multiple financial companies sparking some of last week’s turmoil after disappointing results surprised amid recent downward revisions.


Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:



Monday:

A.M. – Markets

P.M. – Closed



Tuesday:

A.M. – BHI, DAL, HAL, JNJ, MS, PETS, SAP

P.M.– AMD, CA, CREE, NFLX, SIX



Wednesday:

A.M. – AMTD, ASML, FITB, GD, VIVO, UNH

P.M. – AXP, DFS, EBAY, FFIV, KMI, SNDK, XLNX



Thursday:

A.M. – BBT, CP, JCI, LUV, TRV, UAL, UNP,VZ

P.M. – ALTR, COF, ISRG, SBUX



Friday:

A.M. –BK, DRD, GE, HON, KMB, MCD, STT



Economic Releases (1/19 – 1/23):



Monday:

Markets Closed

                                                                                                                                                                              

Tuesday:

9:00 am CT – Housing Market Index

9:00 am CT – Fed’s Powell Speaks

                                                                                                                                                                                                           

Wednesday:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

7:15 am CT – Housing Starts



Thursday:

7:30 am CT – Weekly Jobless Claims

8:00 am CT – FHFA House Price Index

8:45 am CT – PMI Mfg. Index Flash

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories

10:00 am CT – Oil Inventories

                                                                                                                                                                                                   

Friday:

7:30 am CT – Existing Home Sales

9:00 am CT – Leading Economic Indicators

读读书

gossiphuang

沁颍

1/21/2015

Stocks rose again for the second day in a row, albeit minimal gains. Last night’s State of the Union address by President Obama had little effect overnight on markets. U.S. equity futures (/ES) are sliding this morning ahead of the opening bell. Comments from an ECB council member have downward pressure on equities after he said people “should not get overexcited” about Thursday’s meeting. Optimism has grown that the ECB will ramp up its Quantitative Easing program and boost inflation levels with their announcement tomorrow.  Option volatility fell sharply yesterday despite the meager gains in stocks. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell 5% and settled below the psychological $20 level once again on low volume.



Treasuries are trending higher this morning after rising modestly on Tuesday. The 10-year yield remains near the 1.8% level but the trend remains lower. Overseas, Chinese stocks rose almost 5% but European equities are relatively flat to slightly red. Earnings season is now in full swing and results are mixed at this point. Despite some decent numbers, forecast’s by corporate America remains tempered and cautious into 2015.  U.S. data includes today is light with only Housing starts due. Markets will continue to monitor comments out of Davos and corporate results for direction today.



Stock Stories:

Intl. Business Machines (IBM) – Feeling “Blue”  – The tech bellwether posted another disappointing quarter yesterday after the close. The company lowered FY15 guidance and continues to see margins impacted by Cloud investments. The shares are down 2.5% ahead of the opening bell.



Netflix (NFLX) – Streaming higher – The internet streaming company posted better than expected quarterly results after the bell yesterday. The company saw overseas growth particularly strong and expansion plans are ahead of schedule. The stock is up 15% in the premarket, which is above the 10% expected move according to the option markets.



Major Economic Reports:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications – up 14.2%

7:15 am CT – Housing Starts



Notable Earnings:   

Wednesday – 1/21:

Before Market:  AMTD, ASML, FITB, GD,VIVO,UNH

After Market:  AXP, DFS, EBAY, FFIV, KMI, SNDK, XLNX



Thursday – 1/22:

Before Market:  BBT, CP, JCI, LUV, TRV, UAL, UNP,VZ

After Market: ALTR, COF, ISRG, SBUX

沁颍

Stocks rose again for the third day in a row as they have ground slightly higher in each of the sessions. This morning, the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged.  Further monetary policy measures will be communicated by the President of the ECB at a press conference starting at 1:30 pm CT today.  U.S. equity futures (/ES) are grinding higher this morning ahead of the opening bell. Many expect the ECB to once again fail in their decisions so markets and volatility may ramp up during today’s session. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell another 5% and is down 10% just this week.



Treasuries continued to retreat overnight as hefty declines in Asian and European sovereigns are helping. The 10-year yield is up over 1.92% as Bonds dump. Global equities are modestly higher. Of course it's all about the ECB and its upcoming comments this afternoon. Today's U.S. data on initial jobless claims and the FHFA home price index for November will be overshadowed by the overseas news. There will also be plenty of earnings announcements today and tomorrow morning led by Starbucks (SBUX), General Electric (GE) and McDonald’s (MCD).



Stock Stories:

EBay, Inc. (EBAY) – SOLD!  – The auction/Paypal company posted an in-line quarterly report yesterday after the close. The company lowered FY15 guidance but announced layoffs of employees. The shares are up 3% ahead of the opening bell, which was slightly less than the expected move according to the option markets.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Weekly Jobless Claims

8:00 am CT – FHFA House Price Index

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories

10:00 am CT – Oil Inventories



Notable Earnings:   

Thursday  – 1/22:

Before Market:  BBT, CP, JCI, LUV, TRV, UAL, UNP,VZ

After Market:  ALTR, COF, ISRG, SBUX



Friday – 1/23:

Before Market:  BK, DRD, GE, HON, KMB, MCD, STT

After Market: N/A

gossiphuang

沁颍

1/23/2015

Equities continued their recent upturn in stunning fashion yesterday as the benchmark S&P 500 Index (SPX) rose 1.5%. Investors cheered the decision by the European Central Bank to  initiate a larger than anticipated Bond-Buying program to revive the Euro-Zone economy. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are modestly higher as the market may attempt to build on the rally. Option volatility dumped lower yesterday as the ‘Risk-On’ trade was in place. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell 13% and is down 21% this week as volumes into equities was strong. We should see a continuation of this downtrend if stocks remain in positive territory.



The U.S. Dollar Index (/DX) is sharply higher again today and is trading at levels not seen since 2003. Bonds are higher globally, with many markets in Europe and Asia setting fresh record lows in the wake of the ECB's stimulus. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 1.77%, though it's edged back over 1.8%. In overnight news, Saudi King Abdullah died and will be replaced by his brother Salman. Oil prices are modestly higher but the succession plan was in place and it should have little long-term effect on crude prices. China's flash PMI edged up to 49.8, but remains in contractionary territory under 50. The Euro-zone composite PMI also improved to 52.2. In the U.S. there is data on December existing home sales, leading indicators, and the flash PMI for January. Earnings reports include McDonald's (MCD), General Electric (GE), Honeywell (HON), and Kimberly-Clark (KMB). The focus this weekend will be on the Greek elections Sunday and the upcoming FOMC meeting.



Stock Stories:

Starbucks (SBUX) –Fully Caffeinated – The coffee giant posted an in-line quarterly report last night after the close. Despite not blowing out estimates, analysts are raising price targets and estimates. The shares are up over 4% ahead of the opening bell, which was significantly more than the expected move according to the option markets.



Major Economic Reports:

8:45 am CT – PMI Mfg. Index - Flash

9:00 am CT – Existing Home Sales

9:00 am CT – Leading Economic Indicators



Notable Earnings:   

Friday  – 1/23:

Before Market:  BK, DRD, GE, HON, KMB, MCD, STT

After Market:  N/A



Monday – 1/26:

Before Market:  DHI, NSC, RCL, STX

After Market: MSFT, RMBS, TXN, ZION

wsjboy

不（会）赌 ER。。。。。。。。。

rosemary14

看好MSFT。。。

沁颍

January 25, 2015

The European Central Bank (ECB) unleased a bigger than expected Quantitative Easing Program this past week. The move was intended to push investors into riskier assets and to lower the value of the euro, which traded at its lowest level against the Dollar in nearly 12 years. This action sent global equities grinding higher during the Holiday-shortened week.  The S&P 500 Index (SPX) finished the week up 1.6% and the Blue Chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average’s ($DJI) rose a modest 0.9% due to losses in IBM and Oil stocks. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) led the major indices up 2.7% and the small caps (RUT, IWM) rose 1%.  For 2015, the Nasdaq is the only index in the black.



With the trend higher in equities, Option volatility dumped significantly last week. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) started the week above the psychological $20 level but fell 20% to finish at $16.66. The action by the ECB is seen by many as a way to keep riskier assets such as stocks in favor. The ‘Fear Gauge’ has shown strength so far this year and we don’t believe it will fall too much further heading into the Greek election today and earnings season in the U.S.   



Treasury yields remained weak despite the action by the ECB and a flight to stocks. The ‘Risk-on’ trade was strong but demand for Bonds remained healthy.  The 10-year yield is still low at 1.81%. Oil (/CL) prices fell more last week as they were off by an additional 7%. Crude fell sharply after Iraqi crude production surged to a record and the International Monetary Fund lowered its global growth outlook. On Friday, oil fell to the lowest in almost six years on belief that the death of King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia will not result in any change in strategy for the world's largest crude exporter and production levels will not be cut.



The highlight this week will be the Fed's FOMC announcement on Wednesday.  The Fed will focus on both the labor market and inflation.  Recent Fed comments have suggested no rate increase until after the March meeting but traders will be watching to see if there is a change in that stance.  Friday, we get a first look at fourth quarter Gross Domestic Product and to what extent slowing in global growth might be impacting the U.S.  Updates on the wavering housing and manufacturing sectors also are due. Along with the economic data, earnings will be in focus, led by Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN) and Google (GOOG, GOOGL).


Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday:

A.M. – DHI, NSC, RCL, STX

P.M. – MSFT, RMBS, TXN, ZION



Tuesday:

A.M. – AAL, BMY, CAT, COH, FCX, GLW, MMM, PFE, PG, UTX

P.M.– AAPL, AMGN, EA, JNPR, SYK, T, VMW, X, YHOO



Wednesday:

A.M. – BA, EAT, EMC, GD, HES, IP, PX, STJ, TXT

P.M. – AMP, CRUS, FB, GGP, JEC, LVS, QCOM, TER, VRTX



Thursday:

A.M. – ABT, BAX, CELG, CL, COP, DOW, F, HOG, JBLU, NOK, OXY, POT, RTN, SHW, TWC, VLO, WHR

P.M. – AMZN, BRCM, DECK, GOOG/GOOGL, MTW, V, WYNN



Friday:

A.M. –ABBV, BZH, CVX, LLY, MA, MAT, MO, TSN, WY, XRX



Economic Releases (1/26 – 1/30):

Monday:

8:45 am CT – PMI Services - Flash

9:30 am CT – Dallas Fed Mfg. Survey

                                                                                                                                                                              

Tuesday:

FOMC Meeting Begins

7:30 am CT – Durable Goods Orders

8:00 am CT– S&P Case-Shiller HPI

9:00 am CT – New Home Sales

9:00 am CT – Consumer Confidence

9:00 am CT – Richmond Fed Mfg. Index

12:00 pm CT – 2-year Note Auction Results

                                                                                                                                                                                                         

Wednesday:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 5-year Note Auction Results

1:00 pm CT – FOMC Meeting Announcement



Thursday:

7:30 am CT – Weekly Jobless Claims

9:00 am CT – Pending Home Sales Index

9:30 am CT – Natural gas Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 7-year Note Auction Results

                                                                                                                                                                                                   

Friday:

7:30 am CT – GDP

7:30 am CT – Employment Cost Index

8:45 am CT – Chicago PMI

9:00 am CT – Consumer Sentiment

沁颍

1/26/2015

Equities took a break from last week’s rally on Friday as they slid into the close on concerns about the Greek elections that took place yesterday. A win by the Greek anti-austerity party, escalations of violence in Ukraine and a snowstorm out East have stocks under pressure this morning. U.S. equity futures (/ES) are modestly lower but have recovered off of lows that came overnight. Option volatility fell for the week but may have found a near-term bottom. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell 20% last week but rose modestly on Friday. There is plenty of economic data this week along with important earnings, which could provide some additional movement in markets.



Bonds are modestly higher this morning but are far off of overnight highs. The 10-year Treasury yield is at 1.8% and is showing no signs of reversing higher. In other news, the German confidence index rose better than expected to help boost European stocks. The markets will continue to digest the election outcome near term, along with the various central bank surprises ahead of the FOMC statement on Wednesday. There is some key data ahead, as well as a slew of earnings reports. Today's slate includes the January flash services PMI and the January Dallas Fed manufacturing survey. Microsoft (MSFT) kicks off earnings this week. Also ahead, the Treasury auctions $90 B on Tuesday through Thursday.



Stock Stories:

Intl. Business Machines (IBM) –Blue Reorg – The technology services leader posted another dismal quarter this past week. Rumors of a massive Reorganization at the company could surface soon. Layoffs of 25% of the employee count could be a part of the action. The shares are up 1% ahead of the opening bell and could be in for a volatile week.



Major Economic Reports:

8:45 am CT – PMI Services - Flash

9:30 am CT – Dallas Fed Mfg. Survey



Notable Earnings:   

Monday  – 1/26:

Before Market:  DHI, NSC, RCL, STX

After Market:  MSFT, RMBS, TXN, ZION



Tuesday – 1/27:

Before Market:  AAL, BMY, CAT, COH, FCX, GLW, MMM, PFE, PG, UTX

After Market: AAPL, AMGN, EA, JNPR, SYK, T, VMW, X, YHOO