沁颍

1/21/2015

Stocks rose again for the second day in a row, albeit minimal gains. Last night’s State of the Union address by President Obama had little effect overnight on markets. U.S. equity futures (/ES) are sliding this morning ahead of the opening bell. Comments from an ECB council member have downward pressure on equities after he said people “should not get overexcited” about Thursday’s meeting. Optimism has grown that the ECB will ramp up its Quantitative Easing program and boost inflation levels with their announcement tomorrow.  Option volatility fell sharply yesterday despite the meager gains in stocks. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell 5% and settled below the psychological $20 level once again on low volume.



Treasuries are trending higher this morning after rising modestly on Tuesday. The 10-year yield remains near the 1.8% level but the trend remains lower. Overseas, Chinese stocks rose almost 5% but European equities are relatively flat to slightly red. Earnings season is now in full swing and results are mixed at this point. Despite some decent numbers, forecast’s by corporate America remains tempered and cautious into 2015.  U.S. data includes today is light with only Housing starts due. Markets will continue to monitor comments out of Davos and corporate results for direction today.



Stock Stories:

Intl. Business Machines (IBM) – Feeling “Blue”  – The tech bellwether posted another disappointing quarter yesterday after the close. The company lowered FY15 guidance and continues to see margins impacted by Cloud investments. The shares are down 2.5% ahead of the opening bell.



Netflix (NFLX) – Streaming higher – The internet streaming company posted better than expected quarterly results after the bell yesterday. The company saw overseas growth particularly strong and expansion plans are ahead of schedule. The stock is up 15% in the premarket, which is above the 10% expected move according to the option markets.



Major Economic Reports:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications – up 14.2%

7:15 am CT – Housing Starts



Notable Earnings:   

Wednesday – 1/21:

Before Market:  AMTD, ASML, FITB, GD,VIVO,UNH

After Market:  AXP, DFS, EBAY, FFIV, KMI, SNDK, XLNX



Thursday – 1/22:

Before Market:  BBT, CP, JCI, LUV, TRV, UAL, UNP,VZ

After Market: ALTR, COF, ISRG, SBUX

沁颍

Stocks rose again for the third day in a row as they have ground slightly higher in each of the sessions. This morning, the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged.  Further monetary policy measures will be communicated by the President of the ECB at a press conference starting at 1:30 pm CT today.  U.S. equity futures (/ES) are grinding higher this morning ahead of the opening bell. Many expect the ECB to once again fail in their decisions so markets and volatility may ramp up during today’s session. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell another 5% and is down 10% just this week.



Treasuries continued to retreat overnight as hefty declines in Asian and European sovereigns are helping. The 10-year yield is up over 1.92% as Bonds dump. Global equities are modestly higher. Of course it's all about the ECB and its upcoming comments this afternoon. Today's U.S. data on initial jobless claims and the FHFA home price index for November will be overshadowed by the overseas news. There will also be plenty of earnings announcements today and tomorrow morning led by Starbucks (SBUX), General Electric (GE) and McDonald’s (MCD).



Stock Stories:

EBay, Inc. (EBAY) – SOLD!  – The auction/Paypal company posted an in-line quarterly report yesterday after the close. The company lowered FY15 guidance but announced layoffs of employees. The shares are up 3% ahead of the opening bell, which was slightly less than the expected move according to the option markets.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Weekly Jobless Claims

8:00 am CT – FHFA House Price Index

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories

10:00 am CT – Oil Inventories



Notable Earnings:   

Thursday  – 1/22:

Before Market:  BBT, CP, JCI, LUV, TRV, UAL, UNP,VZ

After Market:  ALTR, COF, ISRG, SBUX



Friday – 1/23:

Before Market:  BK, DRD, GE, HON, KMB, MCD, STT

After Market: N/A

沁颍

1/23/2015

Equities continued their recent upturn in stunning fashion yesterday as the benchmark S&P 500 Index (SPX) rose 1.5%. Investors cheered the decision by the European Central Bank to  initiate a larger than anticipated Bond-Buying program to revive the Euro-Zone economy. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are modestly higher as the market may attempt to build on the rally. Option volatility dumped lower yesterday as the ‘Risk-On’ trade was in place. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell 13% and is down 21% this week as volumes into equities was strong. We should see a continuation of this downtrend if stocks remain in positive territory.



The U.S. Dollar Index (/DX) is sharply higher again today and is trading at levels not seen since 2003. Bonds are higher globally, with many markets in Europe and Asia setting fresh record lows in the wake of the ECB's stimulus. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 1.77%, though it's edged back over 1.8%. In overnight news, Saudi King Abdullah died and will be replaced by his brother Salman. Oil prices are modestly higher but the succession plan was in place and it should have little long-term effect on crude prices. China's flash PMI edged up to 49.8, but remains in contractionary territory under 50. The Euro-zone composite PMI also improved to 52.2. In the U.S. there is data on December existing home sales, leading indicators, and the flash PMI for January. Earnings reports include McDonald's (MCD), General Electric (GE), Honeywell (HON), and Kimberly-Clark (KMB). The focus this weekend will be on the Greek elections Sunday and the upcoming FOMC meeting.



Stock Stories:

Starbucks (SBUX) –Fully Caffeinated – The coffee giant posted an in-line quarterly report last night after the close. Despite not blowing out estimates, analysts are raising price targets and estimates. The shares are up over 4% ahead of the opening bell, which was significantly more than the expected move according to the option markets.



Major Economic Reports:

8:45 am CT – PMI Mfg. Index - Flash

9:00 am CT – Existing Home Sales

9:00 am CT – Leading Economic Indicators



Notable Earnings:   

Friday  – 1/23:

Before Market:  BK, DRD, GE, HON, KMB, MCD, STT

After Market:  N/A



Monday – 1/26:

Before Market:  DHI, NSC, RCL, STX

After Market: MSFT, RMBS, TXN, ZION

沁颍

January 25, 2015

The European Central Bank (ECB) unleased a bigger than expected Quantitative Easing Program this past week. The move was intended to push investors into riskier assets and to lower the value of the euro, which traded at its lowest level against the Dollar in nearly 12 years. This action sent global equities grinding higher during the Holiday-shortened week.  The S&P 500 Index (SPX) finished the week up 1.6% and the Blue Chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average’s ($DJI) rose a modest 0.9% due to losses in IBM and Oil stocks. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) led the major indices up 2.7% and the small caps (RUT, IWM) rose 1%.  For 2015, the Nasdaq is the only index in the black.



With the trend higher in equities, Option volatility dumped significantly last week. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) started the week above the psychological $20 level but fell 20% to finish at $16.66. The action by the ECB is seen by many as a way to keep riskier assets such as stocks in favor. The ‘Fear Gauge’ has shown strength so far this year and we don’t believe it will fall too much further heading into the Greek election today and earnings season in the U.S.   



Treasury yields remained weak despite the action by the ECB and a flight to stocks. The ‘Risk-on’ trade was strong but demand for Bonds remained healthy.  The 10-year yield is still low at 1.81%. Oil (/CL) prices fell more last week as they were off by an additional 7%. Crude fell sharply after Iraqi crude production surged to a record and the International Monetary Fund lowered its global growth outlook. On Friday, oil fell to the lowest in almost six years on belief that the death of King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia will not result in any change in strategy for the world's largest crude exporter and production levels will not be cut.



The highlight this week will be the Fed's FOMC announcement on Wednesday.  The Fed will focus on both the labor market and inflation.  Recent Fed comments have suggested no rate increase until after the March meeting but traders will be watching to see if there is a change in that stance.  Friday, we get a first look at fourth quarter Gross Domestic Product and to what extent slowing in global growth might be impacting the U.S.  Updates on the wavering housing and manufacturing sectors also are due. Along with the economic data, earnings will be in focus, led by Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN) and Google (GOOG, GOOGL).


Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday:

A.M. – DHI, NSC, RCL, STX

P.M. – MSFT, RMBS, TXN, ZION



Tuesday:

A.M. – AAL, BMY, CAT, COH, FCX, GLW, MMM, PFE, PG, UTX

P.M.– AAPL, AMGN, EA, JNPR, SYK, T, VMW, X, YHOO



Wednesday:

A.M. – BA, EAT, EMC, GD, HES, IP, PX, STJ, TXT

P.M. – AMP, CRUS, FB, GGP, JEC, LVS, QCOM, TER, VRTX



Thursday:

A.M. – ABT, BAX, CELG, CL, COP, DOW, F, HOG, JBLU, NOK, OXY, POT, RTN, SHW, TWC, VLO, WHR

P.M. – AMZN, BRCM, DECK, GOOG/GOOGL, MTW, V, WYNN



Friday:

A.M. –ABBV, BZH, CVX, LLY, MA, MAT, MO, TSN, WY, XRX



Economic Releases (1/26 – 1/30):

Monday:

8:45 am CT – PMI Services - Flash

9:30 am CT – Dallas Fed Mfg. Survey

                                                                                                                                                                              

Tuesday:

FOMC Meeting Begins

7:30 am CT – Durable Goods Orders

8:00 am CT– S&P Case-Shiller HPI

9:00 am CT – New Home Sales

9:00 am CT – Consumer Confidence

9:00 am CT – Richmond Fed Mfg. Index

12:00 pm CT – 2-year Note Auction Results

                                                                                                                                                                                                         

Wednesday:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 5-year Note Auction Results

1:00 pm CT – FOMC Meeting Announcement



Thursday:

7:30 am CT – Weekly Jobless Claims

9:00 am CT – Pending Home Sales Index

9:30 am CT – Natural gas Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 7-year Note Auction Results

                                                                                                                                                                                                   

Friday:

7:30 am CT – GDP

7:30 am CT – Employment Cost Index

8:45 am CT – Chicago PMI

9:00 am CT – Consumer Sentiment

沁颍

1/26/2015

Equities took a break from last week’s rally on Friday as they slid into the close on concerns about the Greek elections that took place yesterday. A win by the Greek anti-austerity party, escalations of violence in Ukraine and a snowstorm out East have stocks under pressure this morning. U.S. equity futures (/ES) are modestly lower but have recovered off of lows that came overnight. Option volatility fell for the week but may have found a near-term bottom. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell 20% last week but rose modestly on Friday. There is plenty of economic data this week along with important earnings, which could provide some additional movement in markets.



Bonds are modestly higher this morning but are far off of overnight highs. The 10-year Treasury yield is at 1.8% and is showing no signs of reversing higher. In other news, the German confidence index rose better than expected to help boost European stocks. The markets will continue to digest the election outcome near term, along with the various central bank surprises ahead of the FOMC statement on Wednesday. There is some key data ahead, as well as a slew of earnings reports. Today's slate includes the January flash services PMI and the January Dallas Fed manufacturing survey. Microsoft (MSFT) kicks off earnings this week. Also ahead, the Treasury auctions $90 B on Tuesday through Thursday.



Stock Stories:

Intl. Business Machines (IBM) –Blue Reorg – The technology services leader posted another dismal quarter this past week. Rumors of a massive Reorganization at the company could surface soon. Layoffs of 25% of the employee count could be a part of the action. The shares are up 1% ahead of the opening bell and could be in for a volatile week.



Major Economic Reports:

8:45 am CT – PMI Services - Flash

9:30 am CT – Dallas Fed Mfg. Survey



Notable Earnings:   

Monday  – 1/26:

Before Market:  DHI, NSC, RCL, STX

After Market:  MSFT, RMBS, TXN, ZION



Tuesday – 1/27:

Before Market:  AAL, BMY, CAT, COH, FCX, GLW, MMM, PFE, PG, UTX

After Market: AAPL, AMGN, EA, JNPR, SYK, T, VMW, X, YHOO

沁颍

1/27/2015

Equities gained slightly to start the week yesterday on low market volumes. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are sharply lower as corporate results are coming in lower than expected by some benchmark companies. Many are blaming currency and forex volatility on the missed expectations. The Blizzard out East was downgraded somewhat as snow levels are lower than expected. All Exchanges are open for trading today. Option volatility fell modestly yesterday but should pop today if stocks stay in the red. Of the nearly 100 S&P 500 compnaies that have reported earnings, just ove 60% have beaten expectations.



Bonds are modestly higher, in contrast to small losses in most overseas bond markets. The 10-year Treasury yield held narrowly around the 1.80% level. Stocks are weaker and are extending declines of about 1% amid Greek worries and earnings misses from Pfizer (PFE), Caterpillar (CAT) and others. U.K. Q4 GDP growth slowed more than expected and lending approvals fell to a new cycle low. The Nikkei was the major exception as it posted a 1.7% gain on the weaker yen. The FOMC is scheduled to begin its 2-day meeting today, and release its policy statement on Wednesday at 1:00 pm CT. Today's data calendar is heavy and includes December durable goods orders, January consumer confidence, December new home sales, the January flash services PMI and the November Case-Shiller home price index. There are also plenty more earnings reports today, including Apple (AAPL), Yahoo (YHOO), Amgen (AMGN), Bristol-Myers (BMY), du Pont (DD), AT&T (T), and Coach (COH).



Stock Stories:

Caterpillar (CAT) –Digging Down – The machine manufacturer posted a mixed earnings report this morning as EPS missed badly but Revenue beat slightly against expectations. The company lowered guidance significantly for the year. The shares are down 5% ahead of the opening bell.



Proctor & Gamble (PG) – Blame game – The consumer products company missed estimates on its quarterly earnings report this morning. The company is one of many that is blaming currency and forex effects. The stock is down over 2% in the pre-market.



Major Economic Reports:

FOMC Meeting Begins

7:30 am CT – Durable Goods Orders

8:00 am CT– S&P Case-Shiller HPI

8:45 am CT – PMI Services - Flash

9:00 am CT – New Home Sales

9:00 am CT – Consumer Confidence

9:00 am CT – Richmond Fed Mfg. Index



Notable Earnings:   

Tuesday  – 1/27:

Before Market:  BMY, CAT, COH, FCX, GLW, MMM, PFE, PG, UTX

After Market:  AAPL, AMGN, EA, JNPR, SYK, T, VMW, X, YHOO



Wednesday – 1/28:

Before Market:  BA, EAT, EMC, GD, HES, IP, PX, STJ, TXT
After Market: AMP, CRUS, FB, GGP, JEC, LVS, QCOM, TER, VRTX

沁颍

找半天没找到，原来被读美眉要求置顶了。。。
January 31, 2015

The FOMC meeting this past week sent shockwaves through the markets. The Fed continued with a go slow approach to tightening.  Meanwhile, economic data were mixed, including a surprise on the downside for manufacturing.  The Greek elections had little effect to start the week but then the roller coaster effect took hold. Blue chips led early losses and lower oil prices continued to downtrend. The FOMC statement weighed on equities on Wednesday but they bounced back slightly on Thursday as weekly jobless claims helped stocks. Markets continued to slide on Friday as GDP growth was sluggish. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) finished the week down 2.8% and the Blue Chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average’s ($DJI) led losses off 2.9%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) finished down 2.6% even with the massive rise in APPL, GOOGL and AMZN. The small caps (RUT, IWM) fell 2% only as it was stronger early in the week.



With equities dumping for the week, Option volatility rose significantly last week. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rallied 25% and once again settled above the psychological $20 level. The jumps above this level have increased in number and duration and volatility should remain in the markets in the near-term. The economy appears to have lost a little steam despite mixed economic signals. Manufacturing is soft—in part due to sluggish growth in Europe and Asia.  And a recently stronger dollar does not help the manufacturing outlook.



Treasury yields fell in conjunction with rising demand for Bonds. The yields trade opposite the Treasury prices and the 10-year yield hit levels not seen for almost two years.  The ‘Risk-off’ trade was strong as the safety of  Bonds remained in favor.  Oil (/CL) prices rebounded modestly for the week.  Crude fell sharply at the start of the week but saw a snap-back rally on Friday to send it higher.



There will be plenty to digest this upcoming week for economic data. The consumer sector and Services industry are the focus this week.  The consumer mood has been improving and several indicators will confirm this trend or not.  The January jobs report for January posts on Friday and the two key questions are whether payroll gains continue at a moderately healthy pace and if wages improve from a soft trend.  Personal income starts the week and a key issue is how much the consumer sector gets in terms of income.  The proof of consumer strength is what drives the economy and the first January data on spending is with this week's motor vehicle sales. Earnings season also continues in earnest as the energy and pharma sectors will be in focus.


Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday:

A.M. – LII, PBI, SYY, XOM

P.M. –APC, CLF, HIG, S



Tuesday:

A.M. – AET, ADM, AN, CME, ETN, GCI, JLL, NYT, UPS

P.M.– AFL, CHRW, CMG, DIS, GILD, TTWO



Wednesday:

A.M. – AGN, CLX, CTSH, GM, HUM, MRK, MSI, RL, SMG, SNE, SO, TM, WHR

P.M. – ALL, CLR, HAIN,GMCR, SU, UA, WSTL, YUM



Thursday:

A.M. – BLL, CHTR, CI, CMI, DNKN, GRUB, ICE, KORS, NUS, PM, TEVA, USG, VLO

P.M. – ATVI, ATHN, BWLD, EXPE, GPRO, LNKD, LOCO, MCK, P, TWTR, YELP



Friday:

A.M. –AON, CBOE, FLIR, MCO, STRA



Economic Releases (2/2 – 2/6):

Monday:

7:30 am CT – Personal Income and Outlays

8:45 am CT – PMI Mfg. Index

9:00 am CT – ISM Mfg. Index

9:30 am CT – Construction Spending

                                                                                                                                                                              

Tuesday:

Auto Sales

9:00 am CT – Fed’s Bullard Speaks

9:00 am CT– Factory Orders

11:45 am CT – Fed’s Kocherlakota Speaks

                                                                                                                                                                                                         

Wednesday:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

7:15 am CT – ADP Employment Report

8:45 am CT – PMI Services Index

9:00 am CT – ISM Non-Mfg. Index

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

11:45 am CT – Fed’s Mester Speaks



Thursday:

4:00 am CT – Fed’s Rosengren Speaks

7:30 am CT – International Trade

7:30 am CT – Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT – Productivity and Costs

9:30 am CT – Natural gas Inventories

                                                                                                                                                                                                   

Friday:

7:30 am CT – January Jobs Report

11:45 am CT – Fed’s Lockhart Speaks

沁颍

2/2/2015

Equities had another Friday dump last week as the GDP number came in lighter than expected. January ended the first month of the year in the red for all of the major indices, which historically is a bad sign for stocks. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are modestly higher as positive consumer spending is attempting to counter the geopolitical and economic data. President Obama announced plans to tax multi-nationals on profits kept overseas. This battle with the GOP could also add politics to the headwinds list. Option volatility rose sharply on Friday as stocks slid throughout the day. The CBOE Volatility Index settled above $20 again but may give back some gains today if equities remain in positive territory.  Volumes may be light as a storm here in the Midwest and heading out East is affecting commutes.



Treasuries are relatively flat today but rallied sharply again on Friday. The Risk-off trade was in effect last week which has sent the 10-year Treasury yield to 1.67%. Overseas, China’s manufacturing activity is still contracting according to data released today. Greece’s new government began a so-called ‘Charm offensive’ on Sunday. The actions are apparently an effort to persuade the Euro-Zone to soften its terms of it bailout package.  Today's data calendar is modest but there are key announcements on ISM Index and Construction Spending. Corporate results are light today led by Exxon (XOM) but 85 S&P 500 companies report this week.



Stock Stories:

Amazon.com (AMZN) – Really? – The online retailer posted better than expected earnings last week and saw a massive rally on Friday.  The company results were led by more Prime subscribers. The shares more than doubled its expected move during Fridays session and may see more upside.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Personal Income and Outlays

8:45 am CT – PMI Mfg. Index

9:00 am CT – ISM Mfg. Index

9:00 am CT – Construction Spending



Notable Earnings:   

Monday  – 2/2:

Before Market:  LII, PBI, SYY, XOM

After Market:  APC, CLF, HIG, S



Tuesday – 2/3:

Before Market:  AET, ADM, AN, CME, ETN, GCI, JLL, NYT, UPS

After Market: AFL, CHRW, CMG, DIS, GILD, TTWO

沁颍

2/3/2015

Equities had quite a rollercoaster ride to start off the week yesterday. The benchmark S&P 500 Index (SPX) bounced off of morning lows near a key $1980 technical support level to finish the day in the black. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are modestly higher again as higher oil prices and encouraging news out of Greece put a  bid in stocks. Oil (/CL) is trying for its third positive session in a row and is now over $50 a barrel. Option volatility rose sharply yesterday morning as equities slid but fell throughout the rally in the afternoon. The CBOE Volatility Index rose above the $22 level yesterday but finished the session at $19.43. Factory orders are the only key piece of data out today but could show a fifth straight month of declines, which could provide some additional market volatility.



Overseas, European stocks are up over 1%, after Greece's new government proposed ending the confrontation with its creditors by swapping outstanding debt for new growth-linked bonds, running a permanent budget surplus and targeting wealthy tax-evaders. The Finance minister does not want a confrontation but is requesting a "menu of debt swaps," including two types of new bonds to replace European rescue loans and ECB-owned Greek bonds. U.S. Treasuries are falling sharply this morning. The 10-year yield is rising as bonds fall and is back above the 1.7% level. Today's data calendar is light but there will be a couple of speeches by Fed Governors today that could sway stocks and bonds.



Stock Stories:

Chipotle (CMG) – It’s just a Burrito!! – The fast-casual Mexican food company reports earnings tonight after the close.  The option market is pricing in a 6% move in the shares after the report. The shares are just below all-time highs and is slightly higher ahead of the opening bell.



Disney (DIS) – Not a small world – The entertainment company shares have slid from all-time highs over the last couple of weeks ahead of earnings tonight.  The stock is up 1% in the pre-market and the option market is expecting a move of $2.60 or 3% into the report.



Major Economic Reports:

Auto Sales

9:00 am CT – Fed’s Bullard Speaks

9:00 am CT– Factory Orders

11:45 am CT – Fed’s Kocherlakota Speaks



Notable Earnings:   

Tuesday – 2/3:

Before Market:  AET, ADM, AN, CME, ETN, GCI, JLL, NYT, UPS

After Market:  AFL, CHRW, CMG, DIS, GILD, TTWO



Wednesday – 2/4:

Before Market:  AGN, CLX, CTSH, GM, HUM, MRK, RL, SMG, SNE, SO, TM, WHR

After Market: ALL, CLR, HAIN,GMCR, SU, UA, WSTL, YUM

沁颍

2/4/2015

Equities saw another rally yesterday as optimism on Greece and a rise in Oil prices put a bid in global markets. The benchmark S&P 500 Index (SPX) was choppy to start the day but saw a solid rally into the close. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are modestly lower as lower oil prices are pressuring stocks. The Dow Industrials ($DJI, DIA) gained almost 2% yesterday led by energy names. Option volatility took a dump on the stock rally on Tuesday. The CBOE Volatility Index fell below $18 yesterday but is still just above its 200-day moving average. There is plenty of economic and corporate news due, which could provide another choppy session today.



U.S. Treasuries are slightly higher this morning and is attempting to reverse yesterday’s sell-off. As Bonds fell, the 10-year yield rose back to the 1.78% level. Overseas, equities are mixed with Japan's Nikkei posting a near 2% gain on the heels of the 1.76% surge in the Dow, while European bourses are mostly weaker. China's Central Bank cut the reserve rate requirement to boost lending and growth and to "keep the economy stable." Euro-zone retail sales posted a strong gain, while services PMI was revised up. The U.K. services PMI beat expectations. U.S. data will be of interest with the January ADP private payroll figures due, which will set the stage for Friday's jobs numbers. Other reports on the calendar include ISM services and the final PMI services numbers, along with weekly oil inventories. The MBA reported a 1.3% bounce in mortgage applications for the week ended January 30. There is Fed-speak from Powell and Mester today and earnings announcements include GM, Ralph Lauren (RL), Under Armour (UA), Whirlpool (WHR), Yum! (YUM), and Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR).



Stock Stories:

Chipotle (CMG) –Burrito Price Hike alert! – The fast-casual Mexican food company reported in-line earnings after the close yesterday.  The company stated that it may once again raise prices on some items. The shares are down over 5% ahead of the opening bell, which was the amount expected by the option market into the report.



Merck (MRK) – Vaccinated – The pharmaceutical giant posted mixed earnings results this morning as Revenue came in light. The company also lowered its FY15 guidance by following other corporations by blaming currency and foreign exchange.  The stock is down slightly in the pre-market.



Major Economic Reports:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications – up 1.3%

7:15 am CT – ADP Employment Report

8:45 am CT – PMI Services Index

9:00 am CT – ISM Non-Mfg. Index

9:00 am CT – Fed’s Powell Speaks

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

11:45 am CT – Fed’s Mester Speaks



Notable Earnings:   

Wednesday – 2/4:

Before Market:  AGN, CLX, CTSH, GM, HUM, MRK, RL, SMG, SNE, SO, TM, WHR

After Market:  ALL, CLR, HAIN,GMCR, SU, UA, WSTL, YUM



Thursday – 2/5:

Before Market:  BLL, CHTR, CI, CMI, DNKN, GRUB, ICE, KORS, NUS, PM, TEVA, USG, VLO

After Market:  ATVI, ATHN, BWLD, EXPE, GPRO, LNKD, LOCO, MCK, P, TWTR, YELP

沁颍

2/5/2015

Equities dumped the last half hour of the day on Wednesday as the ECB pulled a waiver from Greece that allowed them to use their debt as collateral. Greece did not meet minimum credit rating requirements but used the waiver to access liquidity. Stocks were choppy throughout the session as lower oil attempted to send equities into the red. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are sharply higher as investors are shrugging off the news out of Greece as they believe its isolated from the rest of the Euro-Zone. Option volatility jumped at the end of the day on the Greece news. The CBOE Volatility Index rose over 5% and we may see a continuation of the recent volatile moves.



Treasuries are lower this morning and have pulled back sharply from overnight highs as stocks reversed into positive territory. Overseas, markets in Europe have rebounded from lows and are now only down slightly. Asian markets were off 1% on the heels of the news out of Greece. The Bank of England left interest rates unchanged this morning and maintained the size of its asset purchase program. Economic data due today include International Trade, Weekly Jobless Claims, Productivity long with weekly natural gas inventories. The MBA reported a 1.3% bounce in mortgage applications for the week ended January 30. The Fed’s Rosengren stated that a lower interest rate environment is still warranted at this point. Along with economic data, earnings announcements today include LinkedIn (LNKD), Twitter (TWTR), and Yelp (YELP).



Stock Stories:

Yum Brands (YUM) –It's Still fast food – The fast-casual restaurant company reported mixed earnings after the close yesterday.  KFC’s growth in China continues to recover but is still weighing on results. The company will rely on improvements as its guidance was optimistic going forward on their conference call. The shares are up slightly ahead of the opening bell.



Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR) – filtering – The single serve coffee giant posted lower than expected earnings results yesterday as both EPS and Revenue came in light. The company did not perform particularly well during a typical high-bar holiday season, which may signal more pain to come.  The stock is down over 7% in the pre-market.



Major Economic Reports:

4:00 am CT – Fed’s Rosengren Speaks

7:30 am CT – International Trade

7:30 am CT – Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT – Productivity and Costs

9:30 am CT – Natural gas Inventories



Notable Earnings:   

Thursday – 2/5:

Before Market:  BLL, CHTR, CI, CMI, DNKN, GRUB, ICE, KORS, NUS, PM, TEVA, USG, VLO

After Market:  ATVI, ATHN, BWLD, EXPE, GPRO, LNKD, LOCO, MCK, P, TWTR, YELP



Friday – 2/6:

Before Market:  AON, CBOE, FLIR, MCO, STRA

After Market:  N/A

沁颍

2/6/2015

Equities were strong throughout Thursdays session as Oil recovered from Wednesdays sell-off. Crude continues to gyrate and is positive today despite the massive build in inventories this week. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are flat to slightly higher as investors await the release of the monthly nonfarm payrolls report. Analysts are predicting that the economy added 230K nonfarm jobs and 223K private sector jobs last month. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 5.6%. Option volatility dumped on the stock rally yesterday and may see some consolidation today. The CBOE Volatility Index fell 8% and quick complacency may be taking hold again.



Treasuries have posted small gains in tandem with most overseas markets. The 10-year yield dipped to 1.80% from the 1.82% close yesterday. Volume was thin, however, with trading cautious ahead of the January employment report. Equities are modestly lower in the Euro-Zone amid ongoing uncertainties over Greece but China fell almost 2% overnight. There wasn't much news overnight to provide direction, and all eye are now on the jobs data, where risk is for a tepid report. The dovish Atlanta Fed president Lockhart will speak on the economy in the afternoon.



Stock Stories:

Twitter (TWTR) –Mediocre=Good? – The social media company reported earnings after the close yesterday and they were slightly higher than expected.  Despite the beat, the user base deceleration looks poised to continue, which is not a positive for a growth company. The shares are up 10% ahead of the opening bell, which is what the option markets had priced in.



LinkedIn (LNKD) – Buy anything? – The business social media company reported a slightly better than expected earnings report last night. The company sees Q1 revenue below estimates but FY15 to meet expectations.  Traders have bid the stock up 10% in the pre-market which seems too bullish compared to results and guidance.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – January Jobs Report

11:45 am CT – Fed’s Lockhart Speaks



Notable Earnings:   

Friday – 2/6:

Before Market:  AON, CBOE, FLIR, MCO, STRA

After Market:  N/A



Monday – 2/9:

Before Market:  CAN, DO, HAS, L, SOHU

After Market:  CSC, RICK

沁颍

Weekend Update

February 8, 2015

Investors shook off a strong Jobs Report on Friday to finish slightly lower. Concerns over Greece and the issues in Ukraine finally put some perspective into the markets. The trend of sell-offs on Fridays have become commonplace as traders take some risk off the table into the weekends. Despite this, stocks saw a solid rally for the week. Oil prices lifting put a bid into equities early in the week. The ECB threw a wrench into the rally midweek as they took away the waiver on funding from Greece. Higher oil prices again on Thursday and a better than expected jobless claims number also helped push stocks higher. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) finished the week up 3% and the Blue Chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average’s ($DJI) led gains up 3.8%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) finished higher by 2.4% and the small caps (RUT, IWM) rose 3.4%. All four major indices are now about flat for the year.



With equities up on the week, Option volatility took a dump last week. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell 17% and is sitting right at its 50-day moving average. Although the U.S. economic data and corporate news remains robust, there are cracks in the reports and geopolitical concerns are numerous. Many analysts believe the markets are topping out near all-time highs once again.  The jobs report showed solid gains and wage growth finally ticked up substantially, which have many positively optimistic.



Treasury yields were up sharply this past week as the positive move in stocks in the latter part had investors moving to ‘Risk-On’ mode. Surging  Oil (/CL) prices helped pressure Bonds prices which in turn causes yields to move higher.  The bottom line is that a somewhat improved labor market and the potential for Fed action early this year has led to higher Treasury rates. Despite a massive rise in inventories on Wednesday, Oil saw a solid rally this past week. Crude finished up 9% for the week but higher supply and lower demand should cap any more significant rallies in the near-term.



Although this upcoming week is relatively light on economic data, they are some key reports due. After Friday's better-than-expected employment report, traders will be looking to see if the consumer sector gains in other aspects.  The JOLTS report is posted Tuesday and the key question is whether increases in job openings continue.  Retail sales declined in December despite lower gasoline prices and auto sales remained volatile.  We may see more of the same for January on both factors but with the underlying trend still healthy.  Readings on the consumer mood have been relatively strong and on Friday we get an update for early February from the University of Michigan. Earnings season also continues and a few Blue Chips are due to slowly finish up the quarterly results.


Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday:

A.M. – CAN, DO, HAS, L, SOHU

P.M. –CSC, RICK



Tuesday:

A.M. – CDW, CVS, DF, KKR, MWW, REGN, SAVE, HOT, UBS

P.M.– AKAM, GNW, LOCK, WU



Wednesday:

A.M. – AOL, ARMH, FSRV, LO, MDLZ, MOS, OC, PEP, TWX, ZTS

P.M. – AMAT, BIDU, CTL, CAKE, CSCO, FEYE, MET, NTAP, NVDA, PNRA, TSLA, TSO, TRIP, Z



Thursday:

A.M. – AAP, ANR, APA, AVP, CS, DPS, IFF, JAH, SNI

P.M. – BYD, CBS, GRPN, KRFT, SFLY, SON, TIME, WWE



Friday:

A.M. –DTE, EXC, SJM, TRW, VF



Economic Releases (2/9 – 2/13):

Monday:

11:30 am CT – TD Ameritrade IMX

                                                                                                                                                                              

Tuesday:

Auto Sales

7:20 am CT – Fed’s Lacker Speaks

9:00 am CT– JOLTS

9:00 am CT – Wholesale Trade

12:00 pm CT – 3-year Note Auction Results

                                                                                                                                                                                                         

Wednesday:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

7:00 am CT – Fed’s Fisher Speaks

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 10-year Note Auction Results

1:00 pm CT – Treasury Budget



Thursday:

7:30 am CT – Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT – Retail Sales

9:00 am CT – Business Inventories

9:30 am CT – Natural gas Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 30-year Bond Auction Results

                                                                                                                                                                                                   

Friday:

7:30 am CT – Import & Exprt Prices

9:00 am CT – Consumer Sentiment

沁颍

Stocks are continuing Friday’s late afternoon sell-off as the global markets react to the Greek news. Newly installed Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras yesterday said his government would repeal Greece's austerity program and reject any extension of the country's bailout, likely creating a confrontation between the country and the rest of the EU. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are sharply lower as European markets also declined on the news. Former Fed Chief Greenspan also weighed in on the unrest by stating it’s just a matter of time before Greece leaves the Euro-Zone. We should see a solid pop in option volatility this morning if stocks continue to trade in the red.



Treasuries have reversed from last week’s sell-off and are sharply higher this morning. The 10-year yield settled last Friday at 1.94% but should give up some gains today as demand for the safety of Bonds picks up. On top of the Greek issues, Trade Data out of China showed sluggish demand from abroad and home. In January, exports slid 3.3% and imports dived more than 19%, leaving a hefty trade surplus for the month. Economic data is light today with only the TD Ameritrade Investor Movement Index reporting and there is no substantial corporate results due.



Stock Stories:

Exxon Mobil (XOM) –Catch up? – The oil and energy giant has withstood the drop in crude prices much better than expected. Despite the 48% drop in oil prices over the last six months, Exxon has only fallen by 12.5% as many analysts believe their diversity negates the shocking dump in crude. The shares are down slightly ahead of the opening bell, as an analyst downgrade has pressure on the shares.



Major Economic Reports:

11:30 am CT – TD Ameritrade IMX



Notable Earnings:   

Monday – 2/9:

Before Market:  CAN, DO, HAS, L, SOHU

After Market:  CSC, RICK



Tuesday – 2/10:

Before Market:  CDW, CVS, DF, KKR, MWW, REGN, SAVE, HOT, UBS

After Market:  AKAM, GNW, LOCK, WU

沁颍

2/10/2015

U.S. stock futures (/ES) are indicating that the market will bounce at the open, as stocks' volatility continues to be high. The new Greek government has been at odds with the other euro-zone members about the conditions attached to Athens' bailout package, and the Greek finance minister reportedly said that the country would propose a compromise deal, causing futures to rise. There are also rumors that the Euro-Zone will extend liquidity needs for an additional 6 months. Crude oil prices (/CL) are slightly lower this morning as they near resistance levels. Recent announcements of capital expenditure reductions and well shutdowns by a number of oil companies has helped steady oil prices. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose sharply yesterday as weakness in stocks was widespread. We should see the ‘Fear Gauge’ reverse lower this morning if stocks remain in positive territory.



Bonds are selling off sharply as stocks rise this morning. The 10-year yield is approaching the 2% level and the trend has been higher for the last week after bottoming near 1.65% recently. The focus remains on Greece ahead of tomorrow's Euro-zone finance minister meeting. The leftist Syriza government and its right wing coalition partner Independent Greeks are holding a confidence vote in parliament. Data overnight was mostly disappointing, especially Chinese inflation. The U.S. calendar is light with the focus on the $24 B in 3-year note auction. Data includes December JOLTS, wholesale trade, and weekly chain store sales. The hawkish Fed president Lacker (voter) speaks on the economy at 7:20 am CT.



Stock Stories:

Coca-Cola (KO) –Who still drinks soda?! – The beverage giant reported better than expected quarterly results this morning. The company beat on the top and bottom lines as their strategic initiatives take hold. The CEO stated that 2015 will be a transition year as the company executes key planning to leverage the brand. The shares are up over 2% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

7:20 am CT – Fed’s Lacker Speaks

9:00 am CT– JOLTS

9:00 am CT – Wholesale Trade

12:00 pm CT – 3-year Note Auction Results



Notable Earnings:   

Tuesday – 2/10:

Before Market:  CDW, CVS, DF, KKR, MWW, REGN, SAVE, HOT, UBS

After Market:  AKAM, GNW, LOCK, WU



Wednesday – 2/11:

Before Market:  AOL, ARMH, FSRV, LO, MDLZ, MOS, OC, PEP, TWX, ZTS

After Market:  AMAT, BIDU, CTL, CAKE, CSCO, FEYE, MET, NTAP, NVDA, PNRA, TSLA, TSO, TRIP, Z