沁颍

9/24/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are up slightly ahead of the opening bell. We had a massive sell-off at the end of the session yesterday as stocks posted a third straight day of losses. Equities fell Tuesday as the threat of war escalated in the Middle East and investors took off risk. Option volatility spiked higher again as investors continue to buy protection. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose another 13% and settled at its highest level in over a month. The ‘Fear Gauge’ may fall today but sentiment in stocks has reversed and selling rallies may be in play here.



Treasuries are a little weaker, in contrast to gains in European and most Asian bond markets after some weaker than expected data overseas. The 10-year Treasury yield ticked up to 2.54% but has trended lower over the last few sessions. The second leg of Note auctions is today and the 5-year is a key one given its historical reactions to Fed policy. News overnight, including slump in the German confidence index, including a worrying drop in the expectations component, and a dip in Japan's PMI. There's not a lot on today's calendar. Along with the Note auction, there is data on August new home sales. The MBA just reported mortgage applications dropped 4.1% in the week ended September 20. There is also more Fed-speak today from Mester and Evans.



Stock Stories:

Amazon (AMZN) – Selling – The online retailer continues to ignore unions in Germany despite the recent outbreak of strikes. The company also just reported a global outage late Tuesday as customers had difficulty placing orders. The shares are relatively flat ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications – Down 4.1%

9:00 am CT – New Home Sales

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

11:05 am CT - Fed’s Mester Speaks

12:00 pm CT - Fed’s Evans Speaks

12:00 pm CT – 5-year Note Auction Results



Notable Earnings:   

Wednesday – 9/24

Before Market:  CAN, KBH, PAYX, MTN

After Market:  FUL, JBL



Thursday – 9/25:

Before Market:  OMN, SCHL

After Market:  DMND, MU, NKE

沁颍

MU挺牛的啊。。。
回复 39# aimei

沁颍

9/25/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are down slightly this morning in the pre-market. Stocks rallied over 1% yesterday as markets reversed recent weakness. Dovish comments from the usual Fed suspects including Charles Evans had investors feeling optimistic and hungry for riskier assets. The U.S. Dollar (/DX, UUP) continues to rally and is at one year highs. The Euro has fallen to its lowest levels in almost two years against the greenback as the economies diverge in growth.  Option volatility fell sharply on Wednesday’s rally in equities. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell 11% but its recent rising trend above $12 has not been completely broken.



Bonds are mostly higher, albeit in relatively thin trading. Dovish comments from ECB's Draghi, who in an interview repeated that the use of additional non-standard measures is unanimously approved by the Council, helped lead sovereign debt markets higher. The action brought the German Bund yield back under 1.0% while the U.S. 10-year yield has fallen to 2.54% as the market recovers from yesterday's poorly subscribed 5-year auction. In the U.S. today the Treasury sells $29 B in 7-year notes to complete this week's auctions. The data calendar includes initial jobless claims, durable orders for August, and the flash services PMI for September. Durables remain volatile and skewed by massive aircraft orders. There is also more dovish Fed-speak from the Atlanta Fed's Lockhart this afternoon.



Stock Stories:

KB Homes (KBH) – Underwater – The home builder posted quarterly results that missed analyst expectations yesterday. Home deliveries in the quarter were tempered by delays in construction schedules and customer mortgage loan closings that resulted in some deliveries being deferred to the fourth quarter. The shares are down again this morning after a downgrade of the company..



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT – Durable Goods Orders

8:45 am CT – PMI Services Flash

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories

10:00 am CT – Kansas City Fed Mfg. Index

12:00 pm CT – 7-year Note Auction Results

12:20 pm CT - Fed’s Lockhart Speaks



Notable Earnings:   

Wednesday – 9/24

Before Market:  OMN, SCHL

After Market:  DMND, MU, NKE



Thursday – 9/25:

Before Market:  BBRY, FINL

After Market:  N/A

沁颍

9/26/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) up slightly this morning ahead of the opening bell. Stocks fell sharply yesterday as interest rate concerns and geopolitical risks put the Bears in charge. Hawkish comments from the Fed’s Fisher also triggered some of the sell-off. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (QQQ) led stocks to the downside yesterday as the sector dropped 2% led by a 4% decline in Apple (AAPL) shares.  Option volatility rose sharply on the broad-based fall in equities. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose 18% as traders were solid buyers of options. Several support levels were broken in the benchmark S&P 500 Index (SPX) on Thursday. The next stop to the downside could be the $1950 and then the $1925 level, which is the 150-day moving average.



Treasuries have shed earlier gains but are still in positive territory. The 10-year yield sits near 2.50% after testing 2.48% overnight. European and Asian Bonds remain higher with the German Bund yield at 0.95% and now firmly under 1%.   Stocks in Asia ended in the red following Wall Street's plunge Thursday, as U.S. equity futures and European bourses rebound. The U.S. Dollar is higher and continues to trend higher against other currencies. Weaker than expected German confidence data helped propel bonds higher, while Japanese CPI came in below expectations. Data today includes the third revision to Q2 GDP, with growth expected to be boosted to 4.4% from 4.2% previously. The final reading on consumer sentiment for September is also due and is expected to edge up to 85.0 from the anticipated 84.6.



Stock Stories:

Nike Inc. (NKE) – Swooshed! – The athletic apparel-maker posted better than expected quarterly results after the close yesterday. Improving margins and sales boosted revenue and FY15 guidance was lifted. The shares are up 7.5% this morning ahead of the opening bell, which is more than double what the option market was predicting into the report.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT - GDP

8:55 am CT – Consumer Sentiment



Notable Earnings:   

Friday – 9/26

Before Market:  BBRY, FINL

After Market:  N/A



Monday – 9/29:

Before Market:  CALM

After Market:  CTAS

沁颍

September 28, 2014

U.S. equities were lower this past week as numerous issues weighed on the markets. Geopolitical concerns in the Middle East and interest rate concerns took center stage for the pull-back.  The week started poorly as equities dropped on concerns about economic growth in China and an unexpected decline in existing home sales. Tuesday also dropped on the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East pressured shares. Wednesday saw a rebound on rising new home Sales. Thursday dumped hard as it showed the largest daily declines in indexes, led down by the tech sector after Apple announced problems in its operating system. Geopolitical concerns also weighed on stocks but Friday saw these losses cut in half. An upward revision to GDP and positive corporate news led stocks back and cut weekly losses somewhat. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) finished the week down 1.4% and the Blue Chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average’s ($DJI) were the strongest finishing only off by 1%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) lagged as they finished the week down a sharp 1.5%.  The small caps (RUT, IWM) dropped 2.4% and led the entire market in the loss column. We will be curious to see if the forecast by the small caps leads to bigger losses for the overall market.



Option volatility rose sharply this week on the stock worries. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) jumped 22% and looks even stronger compared to only modest overall losses for equities. We need the ‘Fear Gauge’ to get closer to the $20 level before many show any real concern for further downside for stocks. Some key technical levels were breached by the benchmark S&P 500 Index (SPX) this past week but it did settle above its 50-day moving average on Friday.



Treasury yields trended down all week with Wednesday being the daily exception in the other direction. Weak auction on Notes this week did not hamper Bond buyers as demand for the safety of Treasuries rebounded. Fed-Speak was mixed which also affected the Fixed income markets as the Doves and Hawks gave different views on the Fed’s interest rate decisions. There was also news on the largest Bond Fund as Pimco’s Bill Gross left the firm ahead of his firing. Many suspect that Bonds will go lower as Pimco would begin selling their substantial holding from his tenure at the firm.



The two big reports this upcoming week are the employment situation and the personal income report. Last month's payroll gain was deeply disappointing and the economy needs to see improvement for September. Personal income growth for July also was sluggish as stronger gains are needed for the consumer to keep spending at a decent pace. Housing has been a big question mark with the latest housing sales numbers mixed. The FHFA home price growth slowed and Case-Shiller actually dipped in the latest report. We will also be watching the developments on the Geopolitical front. There are also rumors that the ECB may act this upcoming week or at least come out with more information on kick-starting the Euro-Zone economy.


Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday:

A.M. – CALM

P.M. – CTAS



Tuesday:

A.M. – COCO, WAG

P.M.– N/A



Wednesday:

A.M. – AYI

P.M. – GAME



Thursday:

A.M. – ATU, MKC, STZ

P.M. – RECN



Friday:

A.M. – N/A



Economic Releases (9/29 – 10/3):

Monday:

7:30 am CT– Personal Income & Outlays

8:00 am CT - Fed’s Dudley Speaks

9:00 am CT –Pending Home Sales

9:30 am CT – Dallas Fed Mfg. Survey

                                                                                                                                                                                

Tuesday:

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales

8:00 am CT – S&P Case-Shiller HPI

8:30 am CT - Fed’s Powell Speaks

8:45 am CT – Chicago PMI

9:00 am CT – Consumer Confidence

                                                                                                                                                                                                              

Wednesday:

Auto Sales – All Day

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

7:15 am CT – ADP Employment Report

8:45 am CT – PMI Mfg. Index

9:00 am CT – ISM Mfg. Index

9:00 am CT – Construction Spending

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories



Thursday:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

9:00 am CT – Factory Orders

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories

                                                                                                                                                                                                      

Friday:

7:30 am CT – September Jobs Data

7:30 am CT – International Trade

8:45 am CT – PMI Services Index

9:00 am CT – ISM Non-Mfg. Index

沁颍

Weekend Update

October 4, 2014



Numerous issues weighed on markets this early in the week. Geopolitical concerns, mixed economic data, health fears and quantitative easing decisions in Europe all fed into the big swings in equities. Equities were down sharply through Thursday but good numbers from the employment report on Friday cut losses notably. At the start of the week, stocks fell, after the worst week in almost two months for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index (SPX), as protests in Hong Kong were added to geopolitical concerns. Also, a rebound in consumer spending raised speculation that the Fed may raise interest rates sooner than earlier anticipated. Ebola fears along with downbeat economic and housing data continued to pressure stocks. Thursday, stocks ended nearly unchanged, while small-cap shares rebounded after huge morning losses. There was a notable amount of bottom fishing and initial jobless claims declined more than expected. At the end of the week, better-than-expected payroll gains were seen as good news for the economy and stocks recouped part of the losses seen earlier in the week. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) finished the week down 0.8% and the Blue Chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average’s ($DJI) finished off by 0.6%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) finished the week down 0.8%.  The small caps (RUT, IWM) dropped 1.3% and led the entire market in the loss column once again.



Option volatility actually fell according to the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) as it showed a 2% slide. The ‘Fear Gauge’ typically rises on equity losses but Friday’s rally caused it to fall sharply.  We have seen a steady rise in Volatility until this week but the momentum is still to the upside as long as interest rate concerns and geopolitical risks remain. Put volume was about twice the Call volume but many investors may be taking a bullish stance by selling Puts after the big slide in equities.



Treasury yields were down moderately this past week. Monday, yields dipped on flight to safety on news of protests in Hong Kong. After little change Tuesday, rates declined notably Wednesday as traders shifted funds to the U.S. as most Group of Seven nations had less attractive rates along with concern that global growth is slowing. At week's close, rates edged up on the jobs report. The U.S. dollar (/DX) rallied strongly this week and is at levels not seen since June 2010.



It’s a relatively light week of news with the only highlights are on the jobs market and the Fed debate. Last week, payroll jobs topped expectations and this week's JOLTS report and jobless claims may confirm further improvement in the labor market. The most recent Fed policy statement indicated that there is considerable internal debate on the timing of the next rate increase. This week's release of Fed FOMC minutes could add insight into the Fed debate. Economic expansion appears to continue at a very moderate pace; however it has been quite volatile in some sectors. The consumer is very uncertain about the economy but jobs are up along with spending, but confidence is down. Earnings season kicks off this week and should bring some clarity to corporate health into the fourth quarter.


Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday:

A.M. – N/A

P.M. – TCS



Tuesday:

A.M. – WWW

P.M.– NG, YUM



Wednesday:

A.M. – COST, MON, RPM

P.M. – AA



Thursday:

A.M. – LNN, PEP

P.M. – CUDA, FDO, SWY



Friday:

A.M. – FAST, INFY, PGR



Economic Releases (10/6 – 10/10):

Monday:

11:30 am CT –TD Ameritrade IMX

2:00 pm CT - Fed’s Lew Speaks

7:30 pm CT - Fed’s George Speaks

                                                                                                                                                                                

Tuesday:

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales

9:00 am CT – JOLTS

12:00 pm CT – 3-year Note Auction Results

1:30 pm CT - Fed’s Kocherlakota Speaks

2:00 pm CT - Fed’s Dudley Speaks

2:00 pm CT – Consumer Credit

                                                                                                                                                                                                              

Wednesday:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

7:30 am CT - Fed’s Evans Speaks

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 10-year Note Auction Results

1:00 pm CT – FOMC Minutes



Thursday:

Chain Store Sales

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

8:45 am CT - Fed’s Bullard Speaks

9:00 am CT – Wholesale Trade

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories

10:00 am CT – Mario Drahgi Speaks

12:00 pm CT – 30-year Bond Auction Results

12:10 pm CT - Fed’s Tarullo Speaks

12:15 pm CT - Fed’s Lacker Speaks

2:40 pm CT - Fed’s Williams Speaks

                                                                                                                                                                                                      

Friday:

7:30 am CT – Import and Export Prices

8:00 am CT - Fed’s Plosser Speaks

12:00 pm CT - Fed’s George Speaks

12:30 pm CT - Fed’s Fisher Speaks

1:00 pm CT – Treasury Budget

2:00 pm CT - Fed’s Lacker Speaks

沁颍

Weekend Update

October 12, 2014



It’s the start of a new week and many Wall Street bulls are hoping they get a reprieve from the beating they have been taking lately.   Economic data was relatively light last week and many market participants focused on the release of the September FOMC minutes, apparently that was all it took.  Although there was a steady supply of economic data pointing to moderating global growth in the past few months, the acknowledgement by the FOMC that the US economy was at risk of being negatively affected by a weaker than expected economic outlook sent markets into tailspin.  Small caps were hit the hardest as the Russell 2000 (RUT) finished down 4.8% with the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (NDX) not far behind finishing the week down 3% and 4% respectively.   The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) popped 275 points on Wednesday only drop 335 points (its largest drop since mid-2013) the very next day.   The violent swings in equities pushed the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) above $20 for the first time since February of this year.   



Volatile markets and slowing global growth pushed many investors into safe havens and US Treasury yields continued to fall.  The serious threat of Europe slipping back into recession territory gave more strength to the dollar (/DX) and pushed crude oil (/CL) as low as $83.59.


This week traders will start to get plenty of data to digest; highlighted by retail sales being released on Wednesday, industrial production on Thursday, and housing starts on Friday.  Earnings season will also start to pick up with many of the major financials and a few large tech companies reporting.  Of particular interest to investors will be how the strong dollar has affected earnings for companies with a large international footprint.   



Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday:

Columbus Day (Banks Closed, Markets Open)

A.M. – N/A

P.M. – N/A



Tuesday:

A.M. – C, JNJ, JPM, WFC

P.M.– CSX, INTC, WWW



Wednesday:

A.M. – BAC, PNC, STJ

P.M. – AXP, EBAY, KMI, LVS, NFLX



Thursday:

A.M. – BHI, SCHW, DAL, FITB, HOMB, VAC, MAT, PM, PPG, UNH

P.M. – AMD, ATHN, GOOG/GOOGL, SNDK, SLB, SYK



Friday:

A.M. – GE, HON, KSU, MS



Economic Releases (10/13 – 10/17):

Monday:

N/A



Tuesday:

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales

                  

Wednesday:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

7:30 am CT – PPI-FD

7:30 am CT – Retails Sales

7:30 am CT – Empire State Mfg Survey

9:00 am CT – Business Inventories

1:00 pm CT – Beige Book



Thursday:

Chain Store Sales

7:00 am CT – Fed’s Plosser Speaks

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

8:15 am CT – Industrial Production

9:00 am CT – Philadelphia Fed Survey

9:00 am CT – Housing Market Index

11:15 am CT – Fed’s George Speaks

12:00 pm CT – Fed’s Bullard Speaks

1:30 pm CT – Fed’s Kocherlakota     

3:00 pm CT – Treasury International Capital

                                   

Friday:

7:30 am CT – Housing Starts

8:55 am CT – Consumer Sentiment

沁颍

10/13/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are indicating a modest rise this morning following the worst weekly outcome on record since May of 2012.  Both the bond market and banks will be closed today in observance of Columbus Day potentially creating more volatility in conjunction with fewer market participants.  Undoubtedly, banking stocks will be included in the headlines for the remainder of the week with several of the “Too Big to Fail” institutions slated to report quarterly earnings.  Bulls will be desperate to uncover any indication of earnings growth to fend off the strong downtrend which appears to be building momentum.



Oil futures (/CL) are extending the recent slide in the price of oil with no end in sight, quietly becoming an unforeseen boon to global economies that continually struggled to outpace surging energy prices ever since the financial crisis.  Visible turmoil among the OPEC community regarding appropriate production levels may indicate even more short-term weakness until a possible consensus can be made leading up to their next meeting on Nov. 27th.



Stronger than expected September import/export data out of China overnight has given much of Asia a much needed bump with the exception of Japan as the ever important trade partner saw double-digit increases year/year.  Much of Europe has reversed higher as well to begin the week as cheaper oil prices begin to raise optimism in a part of the globe that appears on the verge of yet another recession.



Stock Stories:

Boeing (BA) – Lift Off – The aircraft-maker announces a major deal this morning with Indonesia worth over $5B for the delivery of 50 new planes. BA shares are up slightly in the pre-market.



Major Economic Reports:

Banking/Government Holiday in Observance of Columbus Day



Notable Earnings:



Monday – 10/13:



Before Market: N/A



After Market: N/A





Tuesday – 10/14:



Before Market: C, JNJ, JPM,WFC
After Market:CSX, INTC, WWW

沁颍

10/14/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are up slightly in the pre-market as Wall Street attempts to reverse recent heavy losses. The benchmark S&P 500 Index (SPX) fell another 1.6% on Monday as stocks extended its slide. The Index is now below its 200–day moving average for the first time in almost two years and has joined other indices in that trend. Tech’s (QQQ) remain above this technical level for now but there is plenty of upcoming earnings to sway this sector. Option volatility continues to shoot higher as equity markets remain in free-fall. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) jumped another 16% Monday and is at levels not seen since June of 2012. We may see the ‘Fear Gauge’ reverse today if stocks can somehow stop the bleeding and remain in positive territory.



Treasuries are sharply higher on more flight to quality flows as the market reopens from yesterday's holiday where the Dow Industrials plunged another 1.3%. The 10-year yield is down to 2.19%, a fresh year-to-day low and the lowest since June 2013. Many global bonds have fallen to all-time lows with the German Bund at 0.84%. Adding to investor worries were weak data in Europe with a drop in the German confidence index, a fall in Euro-zone industrial production fell 1.8%. A weaker than expected U.K. inflation also put pressure on the economic outlook. There's not a lot on today's calendar, with just weekly chain store sales due along with the beginning of financial earnings.



Stock Stories:

JP Morgan Chase (JPM) – Withdraw – The banking giant posted a mixed quarterly report this morning as EPS missed but top-line Revenue beat expectations. While global economies are still struggling, the CEO stated the U.S. economy is still growing and corporate America is healthy. The shares are down slightly ahead of the opening bell.


Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) – good medicine – The consumer goods/pharma company posted better than expected earnings this morning. The company also raised its FY14 EPS estimates slightly which has its shares up 1% in the pre-market.



Major Economic Reports:

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales - Down 0.7% for the week



Notable Earnings:   

Tuesday – 10/14

Before Market:  C, JNJ, JPM, WFC

After Market:  CSX, INTC, WWW



Wednesday – 10/15:

Before Market:  BAC, BLK, NTRS, PNC, STJ

After Market:  AXP, EBAY, KMI,LVS, NFLX

沁颍

10/15/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are getting hammered again this morning as they continue to slide as we get closer to the open. Crude prices (/CL) are falling again today and are trading near $80 a barrel. Oil is now down 25% since June as inventories and supplies pick up while global demand falls. Stocks rose sharply yesterday morning but fell again throughout the day to barely finish in positive territory.  Option volatility fell sharply as equities traded in positive territory for most of Tuesday’s session. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell over 7% but finished above mid-session lows. We will most likely see the ‘Fear Gauge’ go higher again today if stocks remain under pressure.



The Flight to safety continues in the Treasury market this morning. Bonds are sharply higher again as global equities weaken on falling economic growth. German Bunds are leading the rally with the rate down to a new record low at 0.81%. The 10-yeaer Treasury yield has fallen to 2.18% and has its sights set on 2%. Germany again sold its 2-year Note with a negative yield (-0.06%). There wasn't a lot of data overnight, but today's U.S. calendar is loaded and includes September retail sales, the October Empire State manufacturing index, and September PPI on tap, along with August business inventories. The MBA reported mortgage applications surged 5.6% in the week ended October 10 but it was all due to refinances as rates have dropped. The Fed's Beige Book for the October 28, 29 FOMC is also due later today and should again say growth is moderate to modest. Earnings announcements will be heard from Bank of America (BAC), American Express (AXP), eBay (EBAY) and Netflix (NFLX).



Stock Stories:

Bank of America (BAC) – Deposited – The banking giant posted a slightly better than quarterly report as EPS and top-line Revenue beat expectations. The CEO stated the U.S. economy is still growing and they saw solid customer and client activity. The shares are up slightly ahead of the opening bell.


Intel Corp. (INTC) – Short circuit – The tech bellwether posted better than expected earnings after yesterday’s close. The company reported solid gross margins but continues to rely on share buybacks to boost its bottom line. The shares rose after the report yesterday but are now down slightly this morning in the pre-market.



Major Economic Reports:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications – up 5.6% for the week

7:30 am CT – PPI

7:30 am CT – Retails Sales

7:30 am CT – Empire State Mfg Survey

9:00 am CT – Business Inventories

1:00 pm CT – Beige Book



Notable Earnings:   

Wednesday – 10/15

Before Market:  BAC, BLK, NTRS, PNC, STJ

After Market:  AXP, EBAY, KMI,LVS, NFLX



Thursday – 10/16:

Before Market:  BAX, BHI, DAL, FITB, GS, HOMB, VAC, MAT, PM, PPG, SCHW, SVU, UNH

After Market:  AMD, ATHN, COF, GOOG/GOOGL, IBM, SNDK, SLB, SYK

沁颍

亲太客气了。。。
回复 51# aimei

沁颍

10/16/2014

It looks like the roller coaster will continue today in the markets. U.S. equity futures (/ES) are getting hammered again this morning after a wild ride on Wednesday. The benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) finished the session only down less than 1% but at one point was off 3%.  Crude prices (/CL) are down again today as oil is not helping stocks at this point. Lower oil prices will eventually help the consumer but falling prices will also negatively affect parts of the economy.  Option volatility spiked significantly as equities were all over the place during yesterday’s session. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose 15% and was above $30 for the first time since November of 2011. We will most likely see the ‘Fear Gauge’ go higher again today if stocks remain in the red.



Bonds are off to the races again as the rout in equities continues. Flight to the safety of Treasuries has knocked the 10-year Note yield back down to the 2.0% level. The spike in Treasuries yesterday had the inverse yields under the 1.9% level at one point on Wednesday. The German Bund and the Japanese 10-year yields are hitting lows also as stocks slide. Stocks are sharply lower again as growth and Ebola fears grip investors. Today's U.S. reports on September industrial production, the October Philly Fed index, August Treasury capital flows and weekly initial jobless claims will be closely monitored for what they imply on growth. There is a host of Fed-speak today from hawks and doves, including Plosser, Lockhart, Kocherlakota, and Bullard. There are earnings announcements from Goldman Sachs (GS), Google (GOOG/GOOGL), Delta (DAL), UnitedHealth (UNH), and SanDisk (SNDK).



Stock Stories:

Netflix (NFLX) – Crossed Streams – The online streaming company posted better than expected EPS last night after the close and Revenue was relatively in line. The problem was lower guidance as subscription growth will be lower than anticipated going forward. The shares are down 25% ahead of the opening bell!


Goldman Sachs (GS) – Squids – The investment bank posted blow-out numbers this morning on its quarterly report. The company raised its Dividend and client activity picked up. Despite the positive earnings, the shares are down slightly this morning in the pre-market.



Major Economic Reports:

Chain Store Sales

7:00 am CT – Fed’s Plosser Speaks

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

8:15 am CT – Industrial Production

9:00 am CT – Philadelphia Fed Survey

9:00 am CT – Housing Market Index

11:15 am CT – Fed’s George Speaks

11:30 am CT – Fed’s George Speaks

12:00 pm CT – Fed’s Bullard Speaks

1:30 pm CT – Fed’s Kocherlakota     

3:00 pm CT – Treasury International Capital



Notable Earnings:   

Thursday – 10/16

Before Market:  BAX, BHI, DAL, FITB, GS, HOMB, VAC, MAT, PM, PPG, SCHW, SVU, UNH

After Market:  AMD, ATHN, COF, GOOG/GOOGL, IBM, SNDK, SLB, SYK



Friday – 10/17:

Before Market:  BK, CMA, GE, HON, MS, STI

After Market:  N/A

沁颍

10/17/2014

Remain Calm...Everything is fine?! U.S. equity futures (/ES) are sharply higher as the massive swings in the markets continue. Most of the gains are being attributed to comments from Fed member Bullard yesterday about additional QE despite the fact that he is not a voting member of the FOMC. Additionally, Europe's stock markets are roundly higher, which may be offering traders some relief and optimism. Fed Chair Janet Yellen will be speaking this morning but is not expected to stray from any recent remarks, but the market will be listening for any change in tone. Option volatility should fall quickly after the open if equities remain positive. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell 4% yesterday but still settled above the $25 level. Stocks had another choppy session on Thursday but calmed down somewhat from the swings earlier in the week.



Treasuries and other core sovereigns are lower as risk appetite improves. Dovish comments from the Bank of England's chief economist that rates could stay lower for longer had little effect on debt markets overseas. The 10-year Treasury yield is higher at 2.18% and has bounced nicely off of this week’s low. European stock marekts are registering gains of better than 1% amid hopes for ECB stimulus.  An ECB Executive Board member stated that asset buying could begin within days and has equities rising. The speech from Fed Chair Yellen this morning will highlight today but data also includes September housing starts and the preliminary numbers on consumer sentiment. Earnings reports today come from General Electric (GE), Morgan Stanley (MS) and various other financials.



Stock Stories:

Google (GOOG/GOOGL) – Searched – The search giant posted quarterly results after the close yesterday and the numbers were lighter than expected. Cost per clicks was lower vs. last year and analysts are lowering their price targets this morning. The shares are down about 1% ahead of the opening bell.


General Electric (GE) – Lights on – The global conglomerate posted better than expected EPS this morning but missed slightly on top-line revenue. The companyexpects strong Industrial segment growth and margin expansion in 2014. The shares are up 4% this morning in the pre-market.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Housing Starts

7:35 am CT – Fed’s Yellen Speaks

8:55 am CT – Consumer Sentiment



Notable Earnings:   

Friday – 10/17

Before Market:  BK, CMA, GE, HON, MS, STI

After Market:  N/A



Monday – 10/20:

Before Market:  GCI, HAL, HAS, PETS, SAP, VRX, VFC

After Market:  AAPL, CMG, IBM, TXN, ZION

沁颍

Weekend Update

While the volatile swings led many to believe the markets were down significantly for the week, equities finished only off modestly. Monday, stocks dropped sharply in light trading on the heels of crude oil prices dropping to their lowest levels in almost four years. Tuesday, equities mostly rebounded as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended up slightly higher before dropping sharply at mid-week on lower retail sales and PPI data. Stocks were mixed on Thursday after non-voting FOMC member Bullard stated we could see additional Quantitative Easing. We finished the week up sharply on higher consumer sentiment data and a reversal in European markets. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) and the Blue Chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average’s ($DJI) both finished the week down 1%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) finished the week down a modest 0.4%.  The small caps (RUT, IWM) actually rallied 2.8% and will attempt to lead stocks higher next week.



Option volatility was on a roller coaster this week as stocks had massive swings. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) had only a 3.5% gain for the week but the trading range was significant. The ‘Fear Gauge’ rose above $30 on Thursday morning for the first time since November of 2011. We don’t believe this is the end of volatile trading as faith in the Fed is being questioned on more QE. Also, deflation concerns, dismal economic growth and the Ebola threat should add plenty of volatility in the near-term.



Treasury yields were down only moderately this past week despite steep declines mid-week. The 10-year yield slipped under 1.9% on Wednesday as Treasuries saw a huge spike higher. We then saw rates quickly reverse and finish the week only off slightly. Despite the daily swings in rates, traders are still concerned about growth overseas slowing as well as inflation. Oil futures (/CL) also dipped sharply mid-week on slowing growth concerns but managed to gain some losses back on Thursday and Friday. Lower crude prices should have a positive effect on consumer spending going into the holiday season.  



It’s going to be a relatively light week of news with the only highlights are on housing and the CPI. The housing sector has been giving mixed signals recently with sales and prices sluggish but last week's housing starts showing a rebound. Globally, price inflation has softened, leading central banks to cut back on aggressive language on reducing balance sheets. This week's CPI report may influence market views on when the Fed next raises policy rates as inflation remains well below target of 2 percent. Earnings also get into full swing this week with key tech results from bellwethers Apple (AAPL), IBM and Yahoo (YHOO). Blue chips quarterly results are also due from McDonalds (MCD), Boeing (BA) and Dow Chemical (DOW).


Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday:

A.M. – GCI, HAL, HAS, PETS, SAP, VRX, VFC

P.M. – AAPL, CMG, IBM, TXN, ZION



Tuesday:

A.M. – APOL, ARMH, EAT, CP, HOG, KMB, LMT, MCD, RAI, TRV, UTX, VZ

P.M.– AMGN, BRCM, CREE, DFS, ISRG, SIX, VMW, YHOO



Wednesday:

A.M. – ABT, BIIB, BA, DOW, EMC, GD, NSC, NOC, OC, SPG, SWK, USB, WHR, XRX

P.M. – CXTS, SLM. SKX, T, TER, TSCO



Thursday:

A.M. – ALXN, AAL, BCC, CAT, CKP, CMCSA, CS, DO, DPS, DNKN, LLY, GM, JBLU, LO, MMM, NOK, NUE, OXY, POT, RTN, UAL, UA, UNP, USG

P.M. – ALTR, AMZN, DECK, KLAC, OLN, P, PFG, SWN



Friday:

A.M. – BMY, COG, CL, DLPH, F, MCO, PG, STT, UPS



Economic Releases (10/20 – 10/24):

Monday:

9:00 am CT - Fed’s Powell Speaks

11:00 am CT - Fed’s Tarullo Speaks

                                                                                                                                                                                

Tuesday:

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales

9:00 am CT – Existing Home Sales

                                                                                                                                                                                                              

Wednesday:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

7:30 am CT – Consumer Price Index (CPI)

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories



Thursday:

Chain Store Sales

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

8:00 am CT – FHFA House Price Index

8:45 am CT – PMI Mfg. Index – Flash

9:00 am CT – Leading Economic Indicators

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories

10:00 am CT – Kansas City Mfg. Index

                                                                                                                                                                                                      

Friday:

9:00 am CT – New Home Sales

沁颍

10/20/2014

Stocks reversed sharply in the last couple of hours as the roller coaster may continue. U.S. equity futures (/ES) are lower following disappointing earnings from tech giant IBM (IBM). Stocks were sharply higher overnight but reversed quickly this morning on the disappointing report from the tech services bellwether. The market is coming off one of its biggest single day gains of the year on Friday and appears ready to continue the volatility that has been prevalent in the market over the past few weeks. Earnings will ramp up this week and should guide stocks as economic data is relatively light. Dow futures (/YM) will out-perform to the downside today as IBM is a big component in the Price-weighted Index.  Option volatility may rise today after Friday’s equity rally hit it by 12%. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) remains above the $21 level but may run into some resistance near $25.



Risk-off trading has swung this morning after bonds sold off overnight. Treasuries are now higher, having traded significantly lower while we were sleeping. The 10-year yield is at 2.17% and well above last week’s massive slide on Wednesday. Global bonds are mixed with Asian bonds mostly lower on risk-on action as equities rallied thanks to Wall Street's Friday gains. Despite this, European bonds are higher as Euro-zone equities track U.S. stock futures lower following poor earnings news from IBM.  There was little economic news overnight. U.S. economic calendar is empty; however there is a couple of Fed members speaking. There more earnings reports to with investors awaiting Apple (AAPL) news in particular. Also on tap are Chipotle (CMG), Halliburton (HAL), Texas Instruments (TXN), Whirlpool (WHR) and several financials.



Stock Stories:

Intl. Business Machines (IBM) – Feeling BLUE! – The tech services giant reported a horrible quarter this morning (was supposed to be released after the close). The company is paying to get rid of its microelectronics business and revenue continues to fall despite its restructuring efforts. The shares are down about 6% ahead of the opening bell.


Major Economic Reports:

9:00 am CT - Fed’s Powell Speaks

11:00 am CT - Fed’s Tarullo Speaks



Notable Earnings:   

Monday – 10/20:

Before Market:  GCI, HAL, HAS, IBM, PETS, SAP, VRX, VFC

After Market:  AAPL, CMG, TXN, ZION



Tuesday – 10/21:

Before Market:  APOL, ARMH, EAT, CP, HOG, KMB, LMT, MCD, RAI, TRV, UTX, VZ

After Market:  AMGN, BRCM, CREE, DFS, ISRG, SIX, VMW, YHOO