沁颍

7/28/2014

Stock futures (/ES) are trading slightly lower to start the week. The market will try to get back to its winning ways after stocks declined modestly on Friday, partly due to geopolitical events in Russia and Israel. There were also some earnings disappointments at the end of last week, and a downgrade by Goldman Sachs on their short-term outlook on equities. In addition to another heavy week of earnings, investors will be gearing up for the monthly jobs report that is scheduled to be released on Friday. Decreasing Weekly jobless claims could be forecasting a good jobs number this week. This would most likely continue our rally for equities and send the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) to even lower levels.  



Bonds are little changed to lower as the market unwinds Friday's flight to quality trades and sets up for upcoming supply through auctions. This is in contrast to small gains in most overseas bond markets. Meanwhile, global equities are mostly lower ahead of a very busy week of events and data that includes the FOMC meeting, the first look at Q2 GDP along with non-farm payrolls for July. There also is heavy supply and plethora of earnings announcements. For today, The Treasury sells $29 B in 2-year notes. Data includes the flash Markit PMI services numbers for July, June pending home sales, and the Dallas Fed index for July.



Stock Stories:

Family Dollar (FDO) – Cheap? – The retailer Dollar Tree (DLTR) is going acquire Family Dollar for $74.50 per share in cash, stock. The transaction will create a discount retailer in North America based on number of store locations, operating more than 13,000 stores in 48 states and Canada, with sales exceeding $18B. FDO shares are up 24% ahead of the opening bell and DLTR is higher by 7%.



Cummins Inc. (CMI) –Still driving - The engine-maker posted better than expected earnings this morning. The company also announced an increase in revenue guidance due largely to improving demand in North America. The stock is down slightly in the premarket.



Major Economic Reports:

8:45 am CT – PMI Services Flash

9:00 am CT – Pending Home Sales Index

9:30 am CT – Dallas Fed Mfg. Survey

12:00 pm CT – 2-year Note Auction results



Notable Earnings:   

Monday – 7/28:

Before Market:  CMI, FTK, SOHU, TEN, TSN

After Market:  GGP, HLF, JEC, MAS, RRC, SU



Tuesday – 7/29:

Before Market: AET, AKS, ACI, GLW, ETN, ITW, IP, MMC, MRK, NOV, PCAR, RAI, SIRI, UBS, UPS, WM

After Market:  AXP, AMGN, APC, BWLD, CHRW, EW, ESRX, FISV, GNW, MAR, PNRA, TWTR, X

沁颍

sorry, I am occupied this morning...

7/29/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are suggesting a slightly higher open for the broader market. Another round of solid earnings reports last night and the stabilization of the Russian stock market have made investors more comfortable about buying stocks. Monday’s session began with a nice sell-off, but once again the Bulls came in and bought the dip. Option volatility had a nice spike early on but reversed into the close. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) jumped above $13 yesterday but slid back towards recent support near $12 by the end of the day.  



Treasuries are higher with the long end continuing to out-perform Notes. The 10-year note is modestly lower and remains below 2.5%. Gains in European bond markets amid further geopolitical risks with calls for harsher sanctions on Russia also supported demand for Treasuries. There were also renewed concerns over Portugal's banking sector. The FOMC meeting begins today but no surprises are expected with tomorrow's policy announcement. The Treasury auctions $35 B in 5-year notes this afternoon. As for data, July consumer confidence, the S&P Case-Shiller home price index, and weekly chain store sales are due. Earnings news includes Twitter (TWTR), Merck (MRK), and Amgen (AMGN) after the close.



Stock Stories:

Herbalife (HLF) – Pyramid slide – The alleged pyramid scheme multi-level marketing company posted weaker than expected quarterly results last night.  HLF shares are down by 11% ahead of the opening bell but option markets were expecting a move of only 6% after the report.



Pfizer (PFE) –Feeling better - The pharmaceutical giant posted better than expected earnings this morning as it beat on EPS and Revenue estimates. Growth is steady globally and they will continue to buy back shares this year. The stock is up slightly in the premarket.



Major Economic Reports:

FOMC Meeting Begins

6:30 am CT – NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales – Up 0.2%

8:00 am CT– S&P Case-Shiller HPI

9:00 am CT – Consumer Confidence

12:00 pm CT – 5-year Note Auction Results



Notable Earnings:   

Tuesday – 7/29:

Before Market:  AET, AKS, ACI, GLW, ETN, ITW, IP, MMC, MRK, NOV, PCAR, RAI, SIRI, UBS, UPS, WM

After Market:  AXP, AMGN, APC, BWLD, CHRW, EW, ESRX, FISV, GNW, MAR, PNRA, TWTR, X


Wednesday – 7/30:

Before Market: AMT, D, GRMN, GT, HES, HUM, LO, SODA, SO, S, VLO

After Market:  AKAM, ALL, HIG, KRFT, MET, NE, OI, ROVI, WDC, WFM, YELP

沁颍

7/30/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are pointing to a higher open as investors digest the latest round of earnings reports. Yesterday saw modest losses as geopolitical concerns favored the Bears into the close. By all metrics, investors have to be pleased with the earnings season as reports continue to come in above expectations. Investors will continue to keep an eye on the Fed which concludes its two day FOMC meeting this afternoon. Investors will also be reacting to jobs data today, as the ADP Employment Change report will give us a forecast to Friday’s Government Jobs data. Option volatility rose on Tuesday’s downturn in stocks. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) jumped above $13 yesterday but should fall if equities remain in positive territory.



Treasuries dipped slightly lower overnight, with the 10-year yield holding just under 2.50%. Global bonds were mostly lower too, while stocks were mixed overnight and didn't provide any strong direction. Japanese production dropped in June more than expected, as was German and Spanish inflation. Meanwhile, the Euro-zone ESI confidence index was stronger than expected and ECB lending data showed credit standards eased for the first time since in seven years. The FOMC decision this afternoon highlights today's U.S. calendar, though no surprises are expected. Data will be of interest with the Advance Q2 GDP report and ADP private payrolls due. The MBA reported mortgage applications dropped 2.2% for the week and continues to reflect the weak housing sector. The Treasury sells $29 B in 7-year notes to complete this week's auctions.



Stock Stories:

Twitter (TWTR) – Tweeted – The social media company posted better than expected earnings after the close last evening.  The company continues to execute on monetizing its mobile advertising. TWTR shares are up by 27% ahead of the opening bell but option markets were expecting a move of only 10% after the report.



Major Economic Reports:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications – Down 2.2% for week

7:15 am CT – ADP Employment Report

7:30 am CT – GDP

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 7-year Note Auction Results

1:00 pm CT – FOMC Meeting Announcement



Notable Earnings:   

Wednesday – 7/30:

Before Market:  AMT, D, GRMN, GT, HES, HUM, LO, SODA, SO, S, VLO

After Market:  AKAM, ALL, HIG, KRFT, MET, NE, OI, ROVI, WDC, WFM, YELP



Thursday – 7/31:

Before Market: APA, BUD, BZH, CHTR, CI, CME, CL, DDD,  DLPH, EXC, GG, K, MA, MCK, MOS, NI, OXY, TMUS, TWC, VRX, VIA, XOM

After Market:  AFFX, EXPE, FLR, LNKD, SPWR, SWN, TSLA, WYNN

沁颍

7/31/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are pointing to a lower open after investors had a chance to digest the GDP data and Fed statement from yesterday. The GDP increase was higher than expected and Q1 was revised up from weather-related lows. Some are predicting that the better than expected number may cause the Fed to begin tightening sooner than expected. Geopolitical concerns are also present and putting pressure on global markets. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is now firmly back above $13 and should continue higher if stocks remain in the red today. The ‘Fear Gauge’ is showing signs of strength after bouncing off support near $12 once again.



Treasuries are lower again this morning after falling sharply yesterday. The 10-year yield is back above 2.50% and may test 2.6% today. The Fed statement yesterday basically ignored the positive economic data but traders are getting behind the thought that interest rates should rise sooner than planned. Asian stocks were higher but European markets were lower in tandem with the U.S. Data will be of interest with Weekly Jobless Claims and the Chicago PMI leading the news. Earnings of note after the bell include reports from LinkedIn (LNKD) and Tesla motors (TSLA).



Stock Stories:

Whole Foods (WFM) – Bag it – The natural grocer announced quarterly results yesterday after the bell, which beat analyst expectations. The company also announced a $1B share repurchase plan. WFM shares are off almost 4% ahead of the opening bell as analyst downgrades are negatively affecting the stock this morning.



Yelp (YELP) – reviewed – The online review site posted an earnings beat last night after the close. Despite the beat, whisper numbers were higher as the stock is lower by 5% in the pre-market.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT– Employment Cost Index

8:45 am CT – Chicago PMI

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories



Notable Earnings:   

Thursday – 7/31:

Before Market:  APA, BUD, BZH, CHTR, CI, CME, CL, DDD,  DLPH, EXC, GG, K, MA, MCK, MOS, NI, OXY, TMUS, TWC, VRX, VIA, XOM

After Market:  AFFX, EXPE, FLR, LNKD, SPWR, SWN, TSLA



Friday – 8/1:

Before Market: CBOE, CLX, HLT, KCG, PG, RBS, WY

After Market:  N/A

沁颍

Aimei大大，太客气了。。。

8/01/2014

Stock futures (/ES) are coming into more selling pressure this morning after yesterday’s 2% route to finish out the month of July lower.  Investors are on edge after an unexpected rise in labor costs sparked fresh fears of inflation and the reality of an eventual rate increase that markets have discounted for some time.  Today’s jobs report at 7:30 will likely set the tone for the next major pivot. Ironically, a better than expected jobs number of 235,000 or unemployment rate of less than 6% may actually spell bad news for the markets because of the implication that the Feds will begin to assume a much more passive role in the free market system going forward.  Any big miss may likely validate their accommodative stance for the foreseeable future.



Surprisingly,  Gold (/GC) has remained in a tight range near $1285 even with the VIX spiking 27% in yesterday’s session as traders scrambled to buy protection.  Bond prices capped a monthly loss after the 10 year note closed at 2.56% in response to the equity markets slide.  Earnings will continue to play out over the next few weeks but will likely become more isolated as several key names have already set the tone for expectations. A Geo-political breakthrough may also benefit the market  with a  72 hour cease-fire agreement currently in place between Gaza and Israel as hopes of a longer term resolution begin to take shape.



Stock Stories:

Exxon Mobile (XOM) – Dry Well?    The global energy leader reported significant declines in production yesterday which are the lowest since 2009.  The company has been slow to participate in the domestic oil shale boom which has benefited competitors while chasing other projects in several remote regions around the globe.  Shares were down 4% yesterday as a result.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Jobs Data

7:30 am CT– Personal Income & Outlays

8:45 am CT – PMI Mfg. Index

8:55 am CT – Consumer Sentiment

9:00 am CT– ISM Mfg. Index

9:00 am CT– Construction Spending



Notable Earnings:

Friday – 8/1:

Before Market: CBOE, CLX, HLT, KCG, PG, RBS, WY

After Market:N/A

沁颍

August 2, 2014

Stocks ended the week down sharply despite the Fed maintaining its loose monetary policy. The week began quietly, mixed and little changed for the most part. Geopolitical problems in Gaza and Ukraine and weaker pending home sales data weighed on stocks. New sanctions on Russia also put pressure on equities. The Fed's Wednesday afternoon policy announcement was seen as continuing easy monetary policy for a "considerable" period after the end of taper. Also, earlier that day, a better-than-expected advance estimate for second quarter GDP was seen as favorable. Stocks dropped sharply Thursday with no one reason being the driver. Traders began to take the view that the Fed may raise policy rates sooner than earlier believed after the positive GDP number. There were also worries about Argentine debt as that country could not reach an agreement with bondholders and defaulted late Wednesday. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) was down 2.7% for the week and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) was off 2.2%.  The Blue Chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) fell 2.8% and the small caps (RUT, IWM) finished the week down 2.6%.



Option Volatility spike higher this week on the losses in stocks. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) increased by 34% albeit from extremely low levels. The ‘Fear Gauge’ closed above the $17 level for the first time in almost four months. The downturn in stocks feels different this time because ‘buyers on the dips’ were non-existent to end the week. Option premium rose sharply and it is beginning to create some better opportunities for our strategies. .



Rates on Treasuries ended the week mixed but with modest gains for the week. On Monday, yields nudged up despite a disappointing pending home sales report. Tuesday, rates eased marginally on modest flight to safety after the European Union and the U.S. added new sanctions against Russia for supporting separatists in eastern Ukraine. Rates rose notably at mid-week after a strong report on second quarter GDP. Treasury yields were little changed Thursday ahead of the Friday jobs report and they finished the week falling after the payroll jobs number for July came in below expectations.



The economy appears to be poised for decent growth for the rest of the year. The consumer and manufacturing sectors are healthy but housing is still mixed. Fed policy rates are likely to remain below historical averages for a considerable period according to the statement but they may not have taken into account the GDP number before it was released. There is a light schedule for economic data this upcoming week but the standouts are factory orders, international trade, and initial jobless claims. Earnings season is winding down but about 70% of reports have been higher than expected as corporations continue to out-perform. Look for the open of stock futures (/ES) on Sunday night at 5 pm CT for clues on market direction into next week.


Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday:

A.M. – CAH, CAN, L, KORS

P.M. – AIG, CAR, CKP, MRO, THC, VVUS,



Tuesday:

A.M. – ADM, COH, CVS, EMR, FE, IFF, ISIS, MGM, MWW, ODP, REGN, VSI, VMC

P.M.-  ACAD, ATVI, ATHL, CLR, DIS, EOG, FEYE, FSLR, GRPN, PBPB, TTWO, Z, ZGNX



Wednesday:

A.M. – ANR, AOL, ARIA, CHK, CTS, DVN, DISH, FWLT, FOX, NUS, RL, SEP, TWX, VIAB

P.M. – AGU, ATML, CTL, CF, DYN, GMCR, MCP, RIG, SLF, SYMC, ZU



Thursday:

A.M. – CPK, CTB, DNDN, DUK, HSH, JASO, MYL, PBH, TM

P.M. – ALNY, CBS, ED, ELX, MBI, MNST, SCTY, ZNGA



Friday:

A.M. – AMRN, PGNX



Economic Releases (8/4 - 8/8):

Monday:

11:30 am CT – TD Ameritrade IMX

                                                                                                                                                                                

Tuesday:

6:30 am CT – NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales

8:45 am CT– PMI Services Index

9:00 am CT – Factory Orders

9:00 am CT – ISM Non-Mfg. Index

                                                                                                                                                                                                              

Wednesday:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

7:30 am CT – International Trade

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories



Thursday:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories

                                                                                                                                                                                                        

Friday:

7:30 am CT – Productivity & Costs

9:00 am CT– Wholesale Trade

沁颍

8/4/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are pointing to a higher open as the market tries to rebound from its biggest weekly drop in more than two years. Last week the market endured one of its heaviest loads of news flow all year with a barrage of earnings reports, a large amount of economic data, the FOMC meeting, and geopolitical events in both Russia and Israel. Less economic data and fewer earnings reports will be released this week, and Israel has shown signs of slowing its offensive in Gaza, all of which is providing a lift to the futures in early trading. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) finished last week up over 30% and settled above $17 for the first time since early April. Option premium expansion is finally picking up some steam but the ‘Fear Gauge’ should give some gains back today if we remain in positive territory.



Treasuries are relatively flat this morning. The 10-year yield is back above 2.50% and once again bounced off support at the 2.45% level last week. European markets are up modestly on Portugal's central bank announcement of a bailout of beleaguered Banco Espirito. Chinese stocks gained over 1.5% today but Japanese stocks have fallen sharply over the last few sessions, with financials and transporters leading the losses. Investors turned risk averse due to the last week's U.S. stock sell-off and concerns over Argentina's default and Portuguese banking problems. U.S. calendar is thin today with just the TD Ameritrade’s IMX reading on retail client sentiment.



Stock Stories:

Michael Kors (KORS) – Stay out of the Malls! – The high-end retailer posted better than expected earnings this morning. The company beat EPS estimates by 12% and top-line revenue also crushed expectations.  The company also raised FY15 estimates going forward. KORS shares are up over 3% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

11:30 am CT – TD Ameritrade IMX



Notable Earnings:   

Monday – 8/4:

Before Market:  CAH, CAN, L, KORS

After Market:  AIG, CAR, CKP, MRO, THC, VVUS



Tuesday – 8/5:

Before Market: ADM, COH, CVS, EMR, FE, IFF, ISIS, MGM, MWW, ODP, REGN, VSI, VMC

After Market:  ACAD, ATVI, ATHL, CLR, DIS, EOG, FEYE, FSLR, GRPN, PBPB, TTWO, Z, ZGNX

沁颍

8/5/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are lower this morning following yesterday’s moderate advance. Yesterday's gains came after the market last week suffered its biggest weekly loss in two years. Although the rally provided a break from four days of losses, weakness into the close showed that investors are still cautious. The latest cease fire between Israel and Hamas is holding, and investors will be watching to see if it continues to remain in place. Investors will also be examining several pieces of economic data today. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell over 11% yesterday on the positive move in stocks. Today’s negative tone should provide additional option premium if stocks remain in the red.



Treasuries are relatively flat again this morning. The 10-year yield is just below the 2.5% level and continues to consolidate near this level. Positive PMI readings overnight from the U.K. and Europe helped support equities and weigh on bonds although Euro-zone retail sales disappointed slightly. China's PMI was also a little weaker than expected. There's not a lot on today's U.S. slate to provide any new direction. PMI services report an ISM non-mfg. for July are the focal points, but may have little impact since the data follows the FOMC meeting and the key July jobs numbers.



Stock Stories:

American Intl. Group (AIG) – Covered – The insurer blew away estimates on its quarterly report yesterday after the close. The company beat EPS estimates by 19% and announced an additional share repurchase authorization of $2B.  AIG shares are up 2% ahead of the opening bell.



Coach (COH) – Put me in Coach! – The high-end retailer posted better than expected earnings this morning.  The company had seen a massive stock slide recently on lower sales and margins but they beat lowered expectations soundly. The shares are up 7% in the pre-market.



Major Economic Reports:

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales – up 0.2% for week

8:45 am CT– PMI Services Index

9:00 am CT – Factory Orders

9:00 am CT – ISM Non-Mfg. Index



Notable Earnings:   

Tuesday – 8/5:

Before Market:  ADM, COH, CVS, EMR, FE, IFF, ISIS, MGM, MWW, ODP, REGN, VSI, VMC

After Market:  ACAD, ATVI, ATHL, CLR, DIS, EOG, FEYE, FSLR, GRPN, PBPB, TTWO, Z, ZGNX



Wednesday – 8/6:

Before Market: ANR, AOL, ARIA, CHK, CTS, DVN, DISH, FWLT, FOX, NUS, RL, SEP, TWX, VIAB

After Market:  AGU, ATML, CTL, CF, DYN, GMCR, MCP, RIG, SLF, SYMC, ZU

沁颍

8/6/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are lower this morning following yesterday’s sharp decline. Yesterday's losses came after reports that Russia added troops and vehicles to the border with Ukraine. A Polish official also stated that Russia was amassing huge battalions in the region. Reports of sanctions by Russia to the Euro-Zone also had markets on edge. Weakness this morning is being attributed to the geopolitical concerns and negative economic data out of Europe. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose 12% yesterday on the sell-off in stocks. We should see more upside pressure in the ‘Fear Gauge’ today if losses continue to mount for equities. Key technical levels were breached on the downside for stocks yesterday, which could also add to the negative tone for markets.



Treasuries have caught a bid this morning and are adding to yesterday’s gains. Bonds saw a sharp reversal higher yesterday afternoon after trading in the red for most of the morning. The 10-year yield is now firmly below the 2.5% level and may hit levels last seen in June near 2.4%. Asian markets were lower overnight following losses in the U.S. yesterday. Europe’s economy may provide extra tension for Wall Street today. Stock futures pushed into the red after news that Italy unexpectedly fell back into recession in the second quarter, as its gross domestic product shrank. There's not a lot on today's U.S. slate to provide any new direction.



Stock Stories:

Disney (DIS) – UnFrozen – The entertainment giant posted better than expected results on its quarterly report yesterday after the close. The company saw profits and revenue increase on the heels of its movie Frozen and ESPN’s World Cup coverage.  DIS shares are flat ahead of the opening bell but spiked higher in the post-market yesterday.



First Solar (FSLR) –Charged – The solar company posted a mixed earnings report after the close yesterday.  Although the business is strong and growing, it takes a forensic accountant to figure out all the charges and fiscal maneuvering reported. The shares are down a few percent in the pre-market.



Major Economic Reports:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

7:30 am CT – International Trade

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories



Notable Earnings:   

Wednesday – 8/6:

Before Market:  ANR, AOL, ARIA, CHK, CTS, DVN, DISH, FWLT, FOX, NUS, RL, SEP, TWX, VIAB

After Market:  AGU, ATML, CTL, CF, DYN, GMCR, MCP, RIG, SLF, SYMC, ZU



Thursday – 8/7:

Before Market: CPK, CTB, DNDN, DUK, HSH, JASO, MYL, PBH, TM

After Market:  ALNY, CBS, ED, ELX, MBI, MNST, SCTY, ZNGA

沁颍

8/7/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are suggesting a slight bounce for the broader market as investors prepare for the weekly jobless claims data. There are expected to be 304K initial claims after last week’s unexpected rise. Stocks dumped early yesterday but bounced and finished the session slightly positive. Investors ignored Russian President Putin’ comments after he fired back at Western sanctions on Wednesday, ordering bans on imports of food and other products from countries that imposed the restrictions.  The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell slightly yesterday on retrace from lows in stocks. We have seen quite a bit of movement in the ‘Fear Gauge’ recently but it remains relatively low considering all the global risks that are present.



Treasury yields are lower again, in tandem with bond rallies overseas as stocks are mostly lower. Weaker than expected German production was one cause for the drop in the Euro-Zone markets. Geopolitical tensions and Russian sanctions also are keeping a bid in the safety of bonds. The Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) decided this morning that interest rates will remain unchanged. The deposit rate will also remain the same which is still negative 0.10%. The Bank of England also maintained a steady stance in its policy decision. ECB President Drahgi will make comments in a news conference this morning which may rattle markets. The U.S. data slate is light with just initial jobless claims for the week ended August 9.



Stock Stories:

Keurig Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR) – Steamed – The single serve coffee maker posted better than expected EPS numbers but missed on top-line revenue estimates. The company raised FY14 but GMCR shares are down slightly ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories



Notable Earnings:   

Thursday – 8/7:

Before Market:  CPK, CTB, DNDN, DUK, HSH, JASO, MYL, PBH, TM

After Market:  ALNY, CBS, ED, ELX, MBI, MNST, SCTY, ZNGA



Friday – 8/8:

Before Market: AMRN, PGNX

After Market:  N/A

沁颍

8/8/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) were deep in negative territory but have roared back over the last hour and are now positive. Reports that Russia is attempting to De-escalate the conflict in Ukraine have turned stocks higher. President Obama has authorized air strikes In Iraq but has vowed not to deploy ground troops to fight rebels there. The market sold off yesterday afternoon as investors speculated that the U.S. military would become involved in the country. The turmoil in Ukraine still has traders on edge as Russia beefed up it rhetoric against the West yesterday. Earnings continue to roll out, and investors will be watching the wholesale inventory report as well as headlines coming out of the Middle East and Russia. Oil (/CL) and Gold (/GC) prices are also higher while global stock markets are selling off and equity market volatility jumps higher.



The flight to safety continued to put a bid in bonds with the 10-year Treasury yield outperforming and dropping below 2.4%. President Obama's approval of potential limited air strikes in Iraq led to risk off sentiment globally. Japan's Nikkei led global equities lower with a near 3% drop after the Bank of Japan left policy unchanged, as expected, but noted some weakness in exports. Russian sanctions continue to weigh on investor sentiment in the Euro-zone, and Germany in particular. Bullish momentum, technical, and a dangerous world heading into the weekend should keep Treasury gains intact. There shouldn't be much impact from today's limited calendar that includes Q2 productivity and wholesale trade. Rather, traders will be keeping an eye on geopolitics and overseas markets, as well as looking ahead to economic data next week.



Stock Stories:

Lululemon (LULU) – No Pants – Lululemon Athletica announced that its founder Chip Wilson and Advent International have entered into an agreement under which Advent will acquire approximately 50% of Wilson’s ownership in the company, or approximately 13.85% of the company’s outstanding shares, for approximately $845M. LULU shares have been under pressure for almost a year but are up over 5% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Productivity & Costs

9:00 am CT– Wholesale Trade



Notable Earnings:   

Friday – 8/8:

Before Market:  AMRN, PGNX

After Market:  N/A



Monday – 8/11:

Before Market:  DF, GOGO, HNR, PCLN, SYY

After Market:  AMBC, APP, CZR, NUAN, RAX, VTR

沁颍

Weekend Update  August 10, 2014

Stocks ended the week up sharply on Friday despite the geopolitical risks evident across the globe. Markets swung violently this past week, mostly on news from overseas but U.S. news was mostly favorable. The U.S. economy appears to be in moderately healthy shape early into the third quarter and earnings are mostly positive. The past week started out positively on the Portugal bailout of its major bank but stocks quickly fell on escalation concerns in Russia and Ukraine. Russian bans on imports sent stocks lower on Thursday but reversed course sharply to end the week as rumors of a solution surfaced. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) was up a modest 0.3% for the week and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) gained 0.4%. The Blue Chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) was also up 0.4% while the small caps (RUT, IWM) led markets and finished up 1.5%.



The rollercoaster in equities this week provided some spotty spikes in option volatility but it eventually slid into the close on Friday. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell over 7% for the week. The ‘Fear Gauge’ is firmly above the $15 level but any further upside move for stocks will quickly put a damper on our euphoria of increased option premium. Hopefully the news-driven markets will continue to provide more opportunities in our risk-defined strategies.



Treasury rates fell moderately this past week. Monday and Tuesday were relatively quiet but Yields dipped somewhat Wednesday on flight to safety over concerns regarding tensions in Ukraine and Gaza. The U.S., NATO, and Poland warned about the possibility of Russia sending troops into eastern Ukraine, which put a bid in on Bonds. Flight to safety continued Thursday and as soft economic growth was seen globally and they ended the week with a whimper as Friday saw flat action. We still feel the Treasury market will continue to lead the stock market direction in the near-term.



This week ahead has a variety of key releases after a week of minimal news. The two that stand out are manufacturing and the consumer sector, which has shown moderate renewed strength—especially with improvement in jobless claims. The proof will be in the pudding with retail sales for July which are released Wednesday. Markets may also move on Friday's consumer sentiment report. Also, though not expected, a high PPI figure could raise worries about early Fed tightening. The bottom line is that the economy has largely recovered from first quarter weakness and not just in the second quarter but also early third quarter. The Fed may need to marginally move ahead its policy rate plans according to many economists.


Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday:

A.M. –DF, GOGO, PCLN, SYY

P.M. – AMBC, APP, CZR, NUAN, RAX, VTR



Tuesday:

A.M. – CTIB, TW, VAL

P.M.-  CREE, FOSL, FTD, JDSU, KING, SYNC



Wednesday:

A.M. – CSIQ, DE, KATE, M, PF, SNE

P.M. – BGG, CSCO, NTAP, RMAX, SLW



Thursday:

A.M. – MANU, PRGO, PDO, RRGB, WMT

P.M. – A, ADSK, AMAT, CEP, DDS, JCP, JWN



Friday:

A.M. – EL



Economic Releases (8/11 - 8/15):

Monday:

N/A

                                                                                                                                                                                

Tuesday:

6:30 am CT – NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales

8:45 am CT– JOLTS

12:00 pm CT – 3-Year Note Auction Results

1:00 pm CT – Treasury Budget

                                                                                                                                                                                                              

Wednesday:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

7:30 am CT – Retail Sales

8:05 am CT – Fed’s Dudley Speaks

8:20 am CT – Fed’s Rosengren Speaks

9:00 am CT – Business Inventories

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 10-Year Note Auction Results



Thursday:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT– Import & Export Prices

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 30-Year Bond Auction Results

                                                                                                                                                                                                        

Friday:

7:30 am CT – PPI

7:30 am CT – Empire State Mfg. Survey

8:00 am CT – Treasury Intl. Capital

8:15 am CT– Industrial Production

8:55 am CT– Consumer Sentiment

9:45 am CT – Fed’s Kocherlakota Speaks

沁颍

不全。。。
回复 100# vegetable8

沁颍

8/11/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are moderately higher as tensions continue to ease in the Ukraine and Gaza. The market closed last week with a flourish as the U.S. took action on the militant army in Iraq and Egypt brokered an extension of the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel. There may be little else for investors to key in on as the earnings season is coming to a close and the economic calendar is starting the week with nothing on the schedule. Option volatility will continue to fall today as stocks remain higher.  We had plenty of spikes last week in the fear gauge (VIX) but nothing will be sustained.



Treasuries are lower as risk appetite picks up, and as the bond market sets up for this week's refunding auctions. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note edged up to 2.45%. Bonds are lower overseas too with Gilts underperforming. An easing in geopolitical tensions helped boost global equities as Russia called an end to military drills near the Ukrainian border. Kurdish gains against ISIS in Iraq, and another cease fire in the Israel/Gaza have also supported stocks. The economic calendar has been quiet today and the U.S. slate is empty, but traders await a number of GDP reports around the world. The bond market will have to absorb $67 B in Treasury coupons beginning with Tuesday's $27 B 3-year sale.



Stock Stories:

Priceline (PCLN) – Negotiator – The travel purveyor posted mixed quarterly results this morning as Revenue came in slightly lower than expected. The option market was pricing in a move of over $70 but PCLN shares are down almost $20 ahead of the bell.



Major Economic Reports:

N/A



Notable Earnings:   

Monday – 8/11:

Before Market:  DF, GOGO, HNR, PCLN, SYY

After Market:  AMBC, APP, CZR, NUAN, RAX, VTR



Tuesday – 8/12:

Before Market:  CTIB, TW, VAL

After Market:  CREE, FOSL, FTD, JDSU, KING, SYNC

沁颍

多谢支持。。。
回复 107# tianfangye