沁颍

7/22/2014

Stock futures (/ES) are pointing to a higher open after Monday saw modest losses. Positive quarterly earnings are propping up equities despite the ongoing geopolitical turmoil in Gaza and Ukraine. Investors face a busy day on the economic data and corporate front, with numerous Blue Chip companies set to report quarterly results. The highlight of today’s economic news is a report on June inflation in the form of the CPI. Option volatility rose modestly yesterday on the heels of small losses for stocks. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) should fall back to its recent support level at $12 today if equities remain higher.  



‘Risk-On’ momentum may be in favor today as Treasuries are lower ahead of the stock open. Demand for bonds is still strong and trending higher despite the gains in stocks. The 10-year note is down near the 2.48% level and continues to be under pressure on the Treasury strength. Overseas action was positive as both Asian and European markets are higher in tandem with gains in the U.S. Also on tap are existing home sales, the Richmond Fed index, May home prices from the FHFA, and weekly chain store sales, which were down slightly. More earnings news is out today, joining a heavy list for the week. Highlighting are Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), McDonald's (MCD), Coca-Cola (KO), Lockheed Martin (LMT), and Verizon (VZ).



Stock Stories:

Netflix (NFLX) – Streaming – The internet streaming company reported generally in-line results last night although profits did expand. Expansion to other countries lowered forward estimates but international growth is the company’s focus. The shares are up only slightly in the pre-market but the option market had priced in a move of over 6%.



Chipotle (CMG) –I’m calling it!–  The ‘Gourmet’ Burrito chain posted another quarter of better than expected earnings last night after the close. The company continues its meteoric growth rise but valuations are getting lofty. The stock is up 10% in the premarket, which is above the expected 6% move.



Major Economic Reports:

6:30 am CT – NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales – Down 0.4%

7:30 am CT– Consumer Price Index (CPI)

8:00 am CT – FHFA House Price Index

9:00 am CT – Existing Home Sales

9:00 am CT – Richmond Fed Mfg. Index



Notable Earnings:   

Tuesday – 7/22:

Before Market:  ACI, AMTD, BTU, KO, CMCSA, CS, DPZ, HOG, IR, KMB, LXK, LMT, MCD, MO, RF, STT, TRV, UTX, VZ

After Market:  AAPL, BRCM, DFS, EA, ISRG, JNPR, MSFT, UIS, VMW, XLNX



Wednesday – 7/23:

Before Market:  BIIB, BA, DAL, DOW, EMC, FCX, GD, JNS, NSC, NOC, OC, PEP, PX, RAI, SPG, TMO

After Market:  ANGI, CA, CRUS, CTXS, FFIV, FB, FIO, GILD, MBFI, QCOM, RJF, T, TER, TEX, TSCO, TRIP

沁颍

7/23/2014

Stock futures (/ES) are indicating yet another open higher after yesterday’s strong close thanks to more positive quarterly data from powerhouses Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) among others.  The S&P 500 appears determined to breach the key 2,000 level at some point in the near future in light of mounting tension in both Ukraine and Gaza continually being downplayed by investors.



Earnings will likely continue to be the main focus today as economic data will remain muted until tomorrow’s weekly unemployment claims with the exception of today’s MBA mortgage applications report.  Names like Facebook (FB) and Qualcomm (QCOM) will be watched closely after the bell to validate the recent momentum higher.



Hong Kong stocks closed at a fresh new yearly high overnight as property values continue to soar.  The European front sees The FTSE 100 index touching a two-week high today in response to the Bank of England vote to unanimously keep the lending rate at a record low 0.5 percent.

Gold Futures (/GC) are catching a bid this morning as prices remain firm above $1300 likely in reaction to the ongoing tensions oversees.  The rate on the 10-year treasury note is little changed at 2.46 percent.



Stock Stories:

Boeing (BA) –Lift Off!– The aeronautical juggernaut  easily topped wall street estimates this morning off pent-up demand for passenger airliners.  The company also bumped guidance for the year which has sent shares higher pre-market.  



McDonalds (MCD) Not so happy Meal! - The global fast food chain is trading lower pre-market after a fresh downgrade this morning.  Several reports have recently surfaced of expired meat being used by multiple companies in Asian markets which has rattled investor confidence in the entire space.



Major Economic Reports:



Wednesday:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories



Notable Earnings:



Wednesday – 7/23:



Before Market: BIIB, BA, DAL, DOW, EMC, FCX, GD, JNS, NSC, NOC, OC, PEP, PX, RAI, SPG, TMO



After Market: ANGI, CA, CRUS, CTXS, FFIV, FB, FIO, GILD, MBFI, QCOM, RJF, T, TER, TEX, TSCO, TRIP



Thursday – 7/24:



Before Market:BSX, BMY, COG, CAJ, CAT, CELG, CNX, DHI, DAN, DPS, DNKN, LLY, F, GM, HSY, JBLU, KKR, NOK, NUE, POT, RTN, LUV, HOT, SVU, UAL, UA, UNP, USG



After Market:  ALTR, AMZN, BIDU, ELY, CB, CLF, DECK, KLAC, NTGR, OLN, P, PFG, RVBD,SBUX, TSRO, UHS, VRSN

aimei

谢谢月饼ＭＭ
你有没有ＦＢ？

沁颍

才看见。。。
亲太客气了
俺木有FB
回复 78# aimei

沁颍

7/24/2014

Stock futures (/ES) are pointing to a higher open as geopolitical news takes a back-seat to better than expected corporate results. Positive results from FaceBook (FB) and Ford (F) are helping stocks rise in the pre-market. We saw modest gains yesterday for equities and the grind higher to more record levels continues. Option volatility fell yesterday on the heels of gains for stocks. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is at extremely low levels again and should be under more pressure if stocks stay positive today. Although many are calling for a correction or a pull-back for equities, a positive trending market can last much longer than expected if downside catalysts are ignored.



Bonds are lower as stronger than expected PMIs propelled a pick-up in risk appetite. China's manufacturing index spiked to 52.0, while the Euro-zone index rose to 51.9, with the services index bouncing to 54.4. The 10-year Treasury yield is up slightly to 2.48%. Today's U.S. calendar includes the July Markit manufacturing report, along with June new home sales and weekly initial jobless claims. Housing data is underperforming but seems to be the only sector in flux at this point. The earnings calendar remains very heavy and includes Amazon.com (AMZN), Visa (V) and Starbucks (SBUX) after the close today.



Stock Stories:

Facebook (FB) – Liked?! – The social media company posted better than expected quarterly results last night after the close. The company stated mobile ad revenue increased but client click-through numbers are not positive. The shares are up 8.8% in the pre-market but the option market had priced in a move of only 6%.



General Motors (GM) –Recall - The automaker posted worse than expected earnings this morning and announced more charges due to recalls. The stock continues to trade in a higher trend despite the continued miss-steps by the company. The stock is down over 2% in the premarket.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

8:45 am CT– PMI Mfg. Index Flash

9:00 am CT – New Home Sales

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories

10:00 am CT – Kansas City Fed Mfg. Index



Notable Earnings:   

Thursday – 7/24:

Before Market:  BSX, BMY, COG, CAJ, CAT, CELG, CNX, DHI, DAN, DPS, DNKN, LLY, F, GM, HSY, JBLU, KKR, NOK, NUE, POT, RTN, LUV, HOT, SVU, UAL, UA, UNP, USG

After Market:  ALTR, AMZN, BIDU, ELY, CB, CLF, DECK, KLAC, NTGR, OLN, P, PFG, RVBD, SBUX, TSRO, UHS, VRSN



Friday – 7/25:

Before Market: AON, COV, MCO, SWK, VTR, WHR, XRX

After Market:  N/A

沁颍

7/25/2014

Stock futures (/ES) are projecting a weaker open to end the trading week following Europe’s  lead lower.  Germany’s negative business confidence survey validated concerns that the prolonged Russian conflict is starting to take its toll on Europe’s largest economy especially after a new round of sanctions are being debated.  The EURO is now hovering near an eight month low as a result.  Asia tells a different story however with the Shanghai Composite lifting an additional 1% overnight to reach a new three-month high.



The U.S. Durable Goods report at 7:30 CT is the only piece of economic news scheduled today.  A reversal from May’s negative number is expected to show a .6% increase in the month of June.  This critical number is considered by economists as a leading indicator for production.  Earnings continue to dominate headlines with almost half of the S&P 500 components already reporting.  Up to this point 77% of all companies comprising the index have beaten 2nd quarter projections.



The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) remains stable near $11.84 as no new material developments have evolved in the various geo-political hotspots over the past several days.  The 10 year treasury saw an uptick in yield yesterday back above 2.5% as the S&P 500 notched yet another all-time high as it attempts to reach the coveted 2000 mark.  



Stock Stories:



Amazon (AMZN) –– Shopping Spree?   The world’s largest online retailer has trimmed 10% off yesterday’s closing stock price after losing $126 million for the quarter which was twice the expectation. Expenses also jumped 24% during the same period creating doubts in the business model.  New Analyst downgrades are putting additional pressure on the stock pre-market as the numbers are being scrutinized.



Pandora (P) Turn the Music down!- Pandora saw listening hours drop significantly during the previous quarter and came in shy of analyst expectations with a tough competitive environment.  Content prices continue to soar which continues to hurt the bottom line.  Shares are down sharply in pre-market as a result.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Durable Goods Orders



Notable Earnings:

Pre-market  – AON, COV, MCO, SWK, VTR, WHR, XRX

After-market  – N/A

沁颍

July 27, 2014 Weekend Update

Stocks were mixed this past week. Economic growth currently is very mixed by sector and equities are reflecting this. Markets were down strong to start the week as geopolitical concerns in Gaza and Ukraine were escalating. Strong corporate earnings quickly took care of the dip as companies continue to mostly beat expectations. Weekly jobless claims fell to their lowest level since February which may forecast good jobs data due this week for July.  The S&P 500 Index (SPX) was flat and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) led stocks finishing up 0.4%.  The Blue Chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) led stocks down finishing off 0.8% and the small caps (RUT) finished the week down 0.6%. All major indices are up on the year except the small caps (RUT), which is down by 1.6%.



Option Volatility rose modestly this week but remains at extremely low levels despite the global risks for stocks. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) increased by 5% but is still below the $13 level. If corporate results remain strong and the economic data continues to out-perform, we could see stocks hit another round of all-time highs this week. This in turn would once again send option volatility lower.



Treasury yields ended the week relatively flat. The 10-year Note yield traded at its lowest yield since May on Wednesday this past week. Although stocks continue to trade near all-time highs, demand for Bonds continues to rise. Typically we might see stocks rise and demand for Treasuries fall, but they have risen in tandem recently.  The FOMC meets this week also with an announcement on interest rates Wednesday. We have seen some big swings in Treasuries after recent meeting so more of the same may be in order.



This week's highlight is the Jobs report for July on Friday. With recent declines in jobless claims, payroll growth may strengthen. Early in the week, the advance estimate for second quarter GDP will indicate how much of a rebound there was after weather was blamed for weak first quarter growth. The consumer sector is supporting economic growth, just behind manufacturing but housing continues to lag. The personal income report will indicate how much the consumer has for spending. The first reading on consumer spending in the third quarter posts, which have been healthy. Earnings season is in full swing and there are some major reports again this upcoming week.


Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday:

A.M. – CMI, FTK, SOHU, TEN, TSN

P.M. – GGP, HLF, JEC, MAS, RRC, SU



Tuesday:

A.M. – AET, AKS, ACI, GLW, ETN, ITW, IP, MMC, MRK, NOV, PCAR, RAI, SIRI, UBS, UPS, WM

P.M.-  AXP, AMGN, APC, BWLD, CHRW, EW, ESRX, FISV, GNW, MAR, PNRA, TWTR, X,



Wednesday:

A.M. – AMT, D, GRMN, GT, HES, HUM, LO, SODA, SO, S, VLO

P.M. – AKAM, ALL, HIG, KRFT, MET, NE, OI, ROVI, WDC, WFM, YELP



Thursday:

A.M. – APA, BUD, BZH, CHTR, CI, CME, CL, DDD,  DLPH, EXC, GG, K, MA, MCK, MOS, NI, OXY, TMUS, TWC, VRX, VIA, XOM

P.M. – AFFX, EXPE, FLR, LNKD, SPWR, SWN, TSLA, WYNN



Friday:

A.M. – CBOE, CLX, HLT, KCG, PG, RBS, WY



Economic Releases (7/28-8/1):

Monday:

8:45 am CT – PMI Services Flash

9:00 am CT – Pending Home Sales Index

9:30 am CT – Dallas Fed Mfg. Survey

                                                                                                                                                                                

Tuesday:

FOMC Meeting Begins

6:30 am CT – NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales

8:00 am CT– S&P Case-Shiller HPI

9:00 am CT – Consumer Confidence

12:00 pm CT – 5-year Note Auction Results

                                                                                                                                                                                                              

Wednesday:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

7:15 am CT – ADP Employment Report

7:30 am CT – GDP

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 7-year Note Auction Results

1:00 pm CT – FOMC Meeting Announcement



Thursday:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT– Employment Cost Index

8:45 am CT – Chicago PMI

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories

                                                                                                                                                                                                        

Friday:

7:30 am CT – Jobs Data

7:30 am CT– Personal Income & Outlays

8:45 am CT – PMI Mfg. Index

8:55 am CT – Consumer Sentiment

9:00 am CT– ISM Mfg. Index

9:00 am CT– Construction Spending

沁颍

7/28/2014

Stock futures (/ES) are trading slightly lower to start the week. The market will try to get back to its winning ways after stocks declined modestly on Friday, partly due to geopolitical events in Russia and Israel. There were also some earnings disappointments at the end of last week, and a downgrade by Goldman Sachs on their short-term outlook on equities. In addition to another heavy week of earnings, investors will be gearing up for the monthly jobs report that is scheduled to be released on Friday. Decreasing Weekly jobless claims could be forecasting a good jobs number this week. This would most likely continue our rally for equities and send the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) to even lower levels.  



Bonds are little changed to lower as the market unwinds Friday's flight to quality trades and sets up for upcoming supply through auctions. This is in contrast to small gains in most overseas bond markets. Meanwhile, global equities are mostly lower ahead of a very busy week of events and data that includes the FOMC meeting, the first look at Q2 GDP along with non-farm payrolls for July. There also is heavy supply and plethora of earnings announcements. For today, The Treasury sells $29 B in 2-year notes. Data includes the flash Markit PMI services numbers for July, June pending home sales, and the Dallas Fed index for July.



Stock Stories:

Family Dollar (FDO) – Cheap? – The retailer Dollar Tree (DLTR) is going acquire Family Dollar for $74.50 per share in cash, stock. The transaction will create a discount retailer in North America based on number of store locations, operating more than 13,000 stores in 48 states and Canada, with sales exceeding $18B. FDO shares are up 24% ahead of the opening bell and DLTR is higher by 7%.



Cummins Inc. (CMI) –Still driving - The engine-maker posted better than expected earnings this morning. The company also announced an increase in revenue guidance due largely to improving demand in North America. The stock is down slightly in the premarket.



Major Economic Reports:

8:45 am CT – PMI Services Flash

9:00 am CT – Pending Home Sales Index

9:30 am CT – Dallas Fed Mfg. Survey

12:00 pm CT – 2-year Note Auction results



Notable Earnings:   

Monday – 7/28:

Before Market:  CMI, FTK, SOHU, TEN, TSN

After Market:  GGP, HLF, JEC, MAS, RRC, SU



Tuesday – 7/29:

Before Market: AET, AKS, ACI, GLW, ETN, ITW, IP, MMC, MRK, NOV, PCAR, RAI, SIRI, UBS, UPS, WM

After Market:  AXP, AMGN, APC, BWLD, CHRW, EW, ESRX, FISV, GNW, MAR, PNRA, TWTR, X

沁颍

sorry, I am occupied this morning...

7/29/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are suggesting a slightly higher open for the broader market. Another round of solid earnings reports last night and the stabilization of the Russian stock market have made investors more comfortable about buying stocks. Monday’s session began with a nice sell-off, but once again the Bulls came in and bought the dip. Option volatility had a nice spike early on but reversed into the close. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) jumped above $13 yesterday but slid back towards recent support near $12 by the end of the day.  



Treasuries are higher with the long end continuing to out-perform Notes. The 10-year note is modestly lower and remains below 2.5%. Gains in European bond markets amid further geopolitical risks with calls for harsher sanctions on Russia also supported demand for Treasuries. There were also renewed concerns over Portugal's banking sector. The FOMC meeting begins today but no surprises are expected with tomorrow's policy announcement. The Treasury auctions $35 B in 5-year notes this afternoon. As for data, July consumer confidence, the S&P Case-Shiller home price index, and weekly chain store sales are due. Earnings news includes Twitter (TWTR), Merck (MRK), and Amgen (AMGN) after the close.



Stock Stories:

Herbalife (HLF) – Pyramid slide – The alleged pyramid scheme multi-level marketing company posted weaker than expected quarterly results last night.  HLF shares are down by 11% ahead of the opening bell but option markets were expecting a move of only 6% after the report.



Pfizer (PFE) –Feeling better - The pharmaceutical giant posted better than expected earnings this morning as it beat on EPS and Revenue estimates. Growth is steady globally and they will continue to buy back shares this year. The stock is up slightly in the premarket.



Major Economic Reports:

FOMC Meeting Begins

6:30 am CT – NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales – Up 0.2%

8:00 am CT– S&P Case-Shiller HPI

9:00 am CT – Consumer Confidence

12:00 pm CT – 5-year Note Auction Results



Notable Earnings:   

Tuesday – 7/29:

Before Market:  AET, AKS, ACI, GLW, ETN, ITW, IP, MMC, MRK, NOV, PCAR, RAI, SIRI, UBS, UPS, WM

After Market:  AXP, AMGN, APC, BWLD, CHRW, EW, ESRX, FISV, GNW, MAR, PNRA, TWTR, X


Wednesday – 7/30:

Before Market: AMT, D, GRMN, GT, HES, HUM, LO, SODA, SO, S, VLO

After Market:  AKAM, ALL, HIG, KRFT, MET, NE, OI, ROVI, WDC, WFM, YELP

aimei

thanks
no sorry

沁颍

7/30/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are pointing to a higher open as investors digest the latest round of earnings reports. Yesterday saw modest losses as geopolitical concerns favored the Bears into the close. By all metrics, investors have to be pleased with the earnings season as reports continue to come in above expectations. Investors will continue to keep an eye on the Fed which concludes its two day FOMC meeting this afternoon. Investors will also be reacting to jobs data today, as the ADP Employment Change report will give us a forecast to Friday’s Government Jobs data. Option volatility rose on Tuesday’s downturn in stocks. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) jumped above $13 yesterday but should fall if equities remain in positive territory.



Treasuries dipped slightly lower overnight, with the 10-year yield holding just under 2.50%. Global bonds were mostly lower too, while stocks were mixed overnight and didn't provide any strong direction. Japanese production dropped in June more than expected, as was German and Spanish inflation. Meanwhile, the Euro-zone ESI confidence index was stronger than expected and ECB lending data showed credit standards eased for the first time since in seven years. The FOMC decision this afternoon highlights today's U.S. calendar, though no surprises are expected. Data will be of interest with the Advance Q2 GDP report and ADP private payrolls due. The MBA reported mortgage applications dropped 2.2% for the week and continues to reflect the weak housing sector. The Treasury sells $29 B in 7-year notes to complete this week's auctions.



Stock Stories:

Twitter (TWTR) – Tweeted – The social media company posted better than expected earnings after the close last evening.  The company continues to execute on monetizing its mobile advertising. TWTR shares are up by 27% ahead of the opening bell but option markets were expecting a move of only 10% after the report.



Major Economic Reports:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications – Down 2.2% for week

7:15 am CT – ADP Employment Report

7:30 am CT – GDP

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 7-year Note Auction Results

1:00 pm CT – FOMC Meeting Announcement



Notable Earnings:   

Wednesday – 7/30:

Before Market:  AMT, D, GRMN, GT, HES, HUM, LO, SODA, SO, S, VLO

After Market:  AKAM, ALL, HIG, KRFT, MET, NE, OI, ROVI, WDC, WFM, YELP



Thursday – 7/31:

Before Market: APA, BUD, BZH, CHTR, CI, CME, CL, DDD,  DLPH, EXC, GG, K, MA, MCK, MOS, NI, OXY, TMUS, TWC, VRX, VIA, XOM

After Market:  AFFX, EXPE, FLR, LNKD, SPWR, SWN, TSLA, WYNN

沁颍

7/31/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are pointing to a lower open after investors had a chance to digest the GDP data and Fed statement from yesterday. The GDP increase was higher than expected and Q1 was revised up from weather-related lows. Some are predicting that the better than expected number may cause the Fed to begin tightening sooner than expected. Geopolitical concerns are also present and putting pressure on global markets. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is now firmly back above $13 and should continue higher if stocks remain in the red today. The ‘Fear Gauge’ is showing signs of strength after bouncing off support near $12 once again.



Treasuries are lower again this morning after falling sharply yesterday. The 10-year yield is back above 2.50% and may test 2.6% today. The Fed statement yesterday basically ignored the positive economic data but traders are getting behind the thought that interest rates should rise sooner than planned. Asian stocks were higher but European markets were lower in tandem with the U.S. Data will be of interest with Weekly Jobless Claims and the Chicago PMI leading the news. Earnings of note after the bell include reports from LinkedIn (LNKD) and Tesla motors (TSLA).



Stock Stories:

Whole Foods (WFM) – Bag it – The natural grocer announced quarterly results yesterday after the bell, which beat analyst expectations. The company also announced a $1B share repurchase plan. WFM shares are off almost 4% ahead of the opening bell as analyst downgrades are negatively affecting the stock this morning.



Yelp (YELP) – reviewed – The online review site posted an earnings beat last night after the close. Despite the beat, whisper numbers were higher as the stock is lower by 5% in the pre-market.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT– Employment Cost Index

8:45 am CT – Chicago PMI

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories



Notable Earnings:   

Thursday – 7/31:

Before Market:  APA, BUD, BZH, CHTR, CI, CME, CL, DDD,  DLPH, EXC, GG, K, MA, MCK, MOS, NI, OXY, TMUS, TWC, VRX, VIA, XOM

After Market:  AFFX, EXPE, FLR, LNKD, SPWR, SWN, TSLA



Friday – 8/1:

Before Market: CBOE, CLX, HLT, KCG, PG, RBS, WY

After Market:  N/A

aimei

大佬　 LNKD,TSLA

谢谢月饼ＭＭ

沁颍

Aimei大大，太客气了。。。

8/01/2014

Stock futures (/ES) are coming into more selling pressure this morning after yesterday’s 2% route to finish out the month of July lower.  Investors are on edge after an unexpected rise in labor costs sparked fresh fears of inflation and the reality of an eventual rate increase that markets have discounted for some time.  Today’s jobs report at 7:30 will likely set the tone for the next major pivot. Ironically, a better than expected jobs number of 235,000 or unemployment rate of less than 6% may actually spell bad news for the markets because of the implication that the Feds will begin to assume a much more passive role in the free market system going forward.  Any big miss may likely validate their accommodative stance for the foreseeable future.



Surprisingly,  Gold (/GC) has remained in a tight range near $1285 even with the VIX spiking 27% in yesterday’s session as traders scrambled to buy protection.  Bond prices capped a monthly loss after the 10 year note closed at 2.56% in response to the equity markets slide.  Earnings will continue to play out over the next few weeks but will likely become more isolated as several key names have already set the tone for expectations. A Geo-political breakthrough may also benefit the market  with a  72 hour cease-fire agreement currently in place between Gaza and Israel as hopes of a longer term resolution begin to take shape.



Stock Stories:

Exxon Mobile (XOM) – Dry Well?    The global energy leader reported significant declines in production yesterday which are the lowest since 2009.  The company has been slow to participate in the domestic oil shale boom which has benefited competitors while chasing other projects in several remote regions around the globe.  Shares were down 4% yesterday as a result.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Jobs Data

7:30 am CT– Personal Income & Outlays

8:45 am CT – PMI Mfg. Index

8:55 am CT – Consumer Sentiment

9:00 am CT– ISM Mfg. Index

9:00 am CT– Construction Spending



Notable Earnings:

Friday – 8/1:

Before Market: CBOE, CLX, HLT, KCG, PG, RBS, WY

After Market:N/A

沁颍

August 2, 2014

Stocks ended the week down sharply despite the Fed maintaining its loose monetary policy. The week began quietly, mixed and little changed for the most part. Geopolitical problems in Gaza and Ukraine and weaker pending home sales data weighed on stocks. New sanctions on Russia also put pressure on equities. The Fed's Wednesday afternoon policy announcement was seen as continuing easy monetary policy for a "considerable" period after the end of taper. Also, earlier that day, a better-than-expected advance estimate for second quarter GDP was seen as favorable. Stocks dropped sharply Thursday with no one reason being the driver. Traders began to take the view that the Fed may raise policy rates sooner than earlier believed after the positive GDP number. There were also worries about Argentine debt as that country could not reach an agreement with bondholders and defaulted late Wednesday. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) was down 2.7% for the week and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) was off 2.2%.  The Blue Chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) fell 2.8% and the small caps (RUT, IWM) finished the week down 2.6%.



Option Volatility spike higher this week on the losses in stocks. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) increased by 34% albeit from extremely low levels. The ‘Fear Gauge’ closed above the $17 level for the first time in almost four months. The downturn in stocks feels different this time because ‘buyers on the dips’ were non-existent to end the week. Option premium rose sharply and it is beginning to create some better opportunities for our strategies. .



Rates on Treasuries ended the week mixed but with modest gains for the week. On Monday, yields nudged up despite a disappointing pending home sales report. Tuesday, rates eased marginally on modest flight to safety after the European Union and the U.S. added new sanctions against Russia for supporting separatists in eastern Ukraine. Rates rose notably at mid-week after a strong report on second quarter GDP. Treasury yields were little changed Thursday ahead of the Friday jobs report and they finished the week falling after the payroll jobs number for July came in below expectations.



The economy appears to be poised for decent growth for the rest of the year. The consumer and manufacturing sectors are healthy but housing is still mixed. Fed policy rates are likely to remain below historical averages for a considerable period according to the statement but they may not have taken into account the GDP number before it was released. There is a light schedule for economic data this upcoming week but the standouts are factory orders, international trade, and initial jobless claims. Earnings season is winding down but about 70% of reports have been higher than expected as corporations continue to out-perform. Look for the open of stock futures (/ES) on Sunday night at 5 pm CT for clues on market direction into next week.


Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday:

A.M. – CAH, CAN, L, KORS

P.M. – AIG, CAR, CKP, MRO, THC, VVUS,



Tuesday:

A.M. – ADM, COH, CVS, EMR, FE, IFF, ISIS, MGM, MWW, ODP, REGN, VSI, VMC

P.M.-  ACAD, ATVI, ATHL, CLR, DIS, EOG, FEYE, FSLR, GRPN, PBPB, TTWO, Z, ZGNX



Wednesday:

A.M. – ANR, AOL, ARIA, CHK, CTS, DVN, DISH, FWLT, FOX, NUS, RL, SEP, TWX, VIAB

P.M. – AGU, ATML, CTL, CF, DYN, GMCR, MCP, RIG, SLF, SYMC, ZU



Thursday:

A.M. – CPK, CTB, DNDN, DUK, HSH, JASO, MYL, PBH, TM

P.M. – ALNY, CBS, ED, ELX, MBI, MNST, SCTY, ZNGA



Friday:

A.M. – AMRN, PGNX



Economic Releases (8/4 - 8/8):

Monday:

11:30 am CT – TD Ameritrade IMX

                                                                                                                                                                                

Tuesday:

6:30 am CT – NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales

8:45 am CT– PMI Services Index

9:00 am CT – Factory Orders

9:00 am CT – ISM Non-Mfg. Index

                                                                                                                                                                                                              

Wednesday:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

7:30 am CT – International Trade

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories



Thursday:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories

                                                                                                                                                                                                        

Friday:

7:30 am CT – Productivity & Costs

9:00 am CT– Wholesale Trade