aimei

thank very much indeed

沁颍

6/26/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are relatively flat in early trading. Investors will be watching jobless claims data, personal income and spending, and natural gas inventories today. The jobless claims data is expected to show that there were were 310K initial claims and 2.56M continuing claims last week. Personal income is expected to have risen 0.4% in May, while spending is also expected to have increased 0.4%. The Fed will be particularly watching the spending data as they need more clarity on the consumer during the recovery. Option volatility regressed again yesterday as stocks reversed higher once again.  The CBOE volatility Index needs a catalyst to pick up any upside expansion but we may not see that into the end of the quarter.



Bonds are also flat in tandem with U.S. equities. The 10-year yield has slipped this week and is now firmly under 2.6%. Asian shares were mostly higher led by Hong Kong which rose 1.5%.  European shares are slightly lower to flat ahead of the U.S. economic data. Yesterday’s worse than expected GDP data initially put pressure on stocks but the Bulls quickly bought the downturn and rallied into the close. Bad news is being met with buying as traders are ignoring the data. In corporate news, Barclays is being sued by the New York attorney general for its management of its dark pool trading program.



Stock Stories:

Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (BBBY) – Sold! –The retailer posted worse than expected quarterly earnings last night but only missed slightly.  The company saw slower same store sales numbers and analysts seem to think that forward guidance may be hard to achieve. Investors are speaking loudly as the shares are down 8% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

9:00 am CT– Personal Income & Outlays

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories

10:00 am CT –Kansas City Fed Mfg. Index

12:00 pm CT – 7-year Note Auction Results



Notable Earnings:   

Thursday - 6/26:

Before Market:  ACN, CAG, LEN, MKC, WGO

After Market:   NKE



Friday – 6/27:

Before Market:  FINL, KBH

After Market:  N/A

沁颍

6/27/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are drifting slightly lower this morning as the trading week comes to a conclusion.   Both the Dow and S&P 500 are also down fractionally for the week and have struggled to extend above all-time highs recorded just last week.   The Nasdaq 100 has been the outperformer as of late and continues to benefit from the return to several tech momentum names.   Traders will be eagerly watching to see if the markets will continue to see buying at any sign of weakness shortly after the open.



Market sentiment was rattled yesterday after a more hawkish tone was hinted from St. Louis Fed President Bullard on the eventual raising of interest rates.  Treasury yields have continued to drop near three-week lows after reports of slowing economic growth scared some investors back to the safety of bonds. The 10-year yield has dipped back to 2.51% as a result.



The CBOE Volatility index spiked briefly in yesterday’s session before closing near the low of 11.63. The index is still up over 7% for the week.  Commodities appear to be in check this morning with both Gold futures (/GC) and Oil futures (/CL) only trading marginally higher.  The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment number is the only piece of economic news today after mixed results from much of the week have left investors guessing on the current health of the ever recovering economy.



Stock Stories:

NIKE (NKE) – SWOOSH!! –The athletic apparel maker reported a solid quarterly result after the market close yesterday thanks to a strong lift from both North America and Europe.   The company is also benefiting from the positive momentum of the ongoing World Cup frenzy.  Shares are up 3% pre-market.  



Major Economic Reports:

8:55 am CT – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment



Notable Earnings:

Friday - 6/27:

Before Market: FINL, KBH

After Market: N/A



Monday – 6/30:

Before Market:  N/A

After Market: N/A

aimei

VIX
up
thks

沁颍

June 29, 2014 Weekend Update

U.S. markets wrapped up the 2nd quarter on a positive note Friday afternoon as the S&P 500 gained another 3.9 points to finish at $1961. Some last minute quarterly shuffling helped to fuel markets higher throughout the session even after a shaky open.  The broad based index gained an additional 4.7% during the 2ndquarter which extends a 6thconsecutive quarterly improvement with the market still hovering just below all-time highs.  The strongest sector up to the mid-point of 2014 has been Utilities with the retail group lagging after never gaining traction from  the weather related shortfall earlier in the year.



Treasury rates ended the week just moderately above the 2.5% threshold for the 10 year after sliding to a month low earlier in the week off the heels of the weaker than expected GDP result .  Some hawkish dissention among the Federal Reserves may help to stabilize rates above this level with inflationary concerns rearing its head in various segments of the market.  Bond traders may experience an uptick in activity surrounding Chairman Yellen’s comments on Wednesday as markets gauge the landscape of an eventual rate hike.



The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) remains stagnant just above $11 with no catalyst able to reverse the current momentum lower so far this year.  Oil prices (/CL) briefly stabilized near $105 a barrel over the past few sessions after volatile trading pushed crude higher for much of June with the unraveling Iraq crisis being the main cause. Even with an abbreviated week ahead with Friday’s observance of the 4thof July, traders will still have plenty of market data to interpret during the next four sessions with Fed Chairman Yellen, trade balance, and monthly employment being the main focus.   Company earnings will be non-material until after the holiday when Alcoa will officially kick off yet another round the following week.



Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:



Monday: N/A

Tuesday: N/A

Wednesday: STZ, UNF

Thursday: ISCA

Friday: Market Holiday



Economic Releases (6/30-7/4):



Monday:

8:45 am CT – Chicago PMI

9:00 am CT – Pending Home Sales



Tuesday:

7:00 am CT – Treasury Secretary Lew speaks

9:00 am CT – ISM Manufacturing PMI

9:00 am CT – Construction spending

9:00 am CT – Vehicle Sales (All Day Reporting)



Wednesday:

6:30 am CT – Challenger Job Cuts

7:15 am CT – ADP Non-Farm Payroll

9:00 am CT – Factory Orders

9:30 am CT – Crude Oil Inventories

10:00 am CT – FED Chairman Yellen Speaks



Thursday:

7:30 am CT– Monthly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT –Trade Balance

9:00 am CT – Unemployment Rate

8:45 am CT– Final Services PMI

9:00 am CT – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

9:30 am CT– Natural Gas Inventories



Friday:

Market Holiday-No Data

沁颍

6/30/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading almost flat ahead of a condensed trading week.   Tomorrow will usher in the start of Q3 and may be the catalyst for more last-minute “window dressing” by institution investors during today’s session.  The big news over the weekend was the monumental settlement of the French Banking powerhouse BNP Paribas with U.S. Officials for $9 Billion after the bank admitted to conducting countless illicit transactions with prohibited countries.  European stocks are currently trading flat off the news with the FTSE300 at 1,371.



Gold Futures (/GC) are indicating some profit taking this morning as the precious metal is trading lower by .5% ahead of the bell.  Crude Oil (/CL) is also down by roughly the same margin to start the week.  Headlines in Iraq seem to be tapering slightly which may be contributing to the renewed weakness in both over the past few sessions.



Today’s Chicago PMI forecast will be looking for a reading of 63.2 at 8:45 Central.  This number is considered by many as a leading indicator for the overall economic health of businesses and their willingness to purchase additional inventory based on sentiment.  Home Sales will also be on display today with an expectation of a 1.4% increase at 9:00 Central.  Markets will be anxiously awaiting Wednesday’s speech from Chairman Yellen to better ascertain the Fed’s stance on the economic recovery and any hint to when the eventual hike of interest rates may occur.  Monthly Unemployment results on Thursday will also be pivotal if the markets expect to continue to propel the sustained rally into new highs.



Stock Stories:

GoPro (GPRO) – Adrenaline Rush! –The maker of custom mounted Hi-Def. Video components made popular by high adventure junkies continues to surge after last week’s IPO.  Shares are indicating a higher open in pre-market.



Major Economic Reports:



8:45 am CT – Chicago PMI

9:00 am CT – Pending Home Sales



Notable Earnings:



Monday - 6/30:

Before Market: N/A

After Market: N/A



Tuesday – 7/1:

Before Market: N/A

After Market: N/A

沁颍

7/3/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are slightly above fair value as investors anxiously await the monthly jobs report. It'll be a short session today, with the major stock exchanges closing at 12 pm CT. Yesterday saw stocks set another upside record but the rally was somewhat subdued despite a positive surprise to the ADP jobs report. Analysts are predicting that the government’s non-farm payroll data increased 215K and the unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 6.3%. If the nonfarm-payrolls report sharply outstrips expectations, it could spur speculation that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates sooner than expected. This morning, the ECB left benchmark interest rates and deposit facility rates unchanged as expected.



Treasuries are little changed after a big sell-off on solid volume Wednesday. Concerns over inflation and an earlier interest rate hike had yields rising on the bond downturn. The 10-year Treasury yield is at 2.62% and could continue to rise if the jobs data comes in higher than expected. Challenger just reported announced layoffs which showed a 21.5k decline, down 20% year-over-year. Other data today includes June ISM services release and the May trade balance, along with weekly jobless claims, though their impact should be muted.  This is an abbreviated session with the markets closing early ahead of the July 4thholiday.



Stock Stories:

Amazon.com (AMZN) – Legally –U.S. regulators are accusing Amazon of charging users for additional services through registered credit cards, after an app is downloaded for free. This case is similar to the settled one by Apple (AAPL) which the company paid out over $30M. The shares are flat ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Jobs Data

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT –International Trade

8:45 am CT– PMI Services Index

9:00 am CT – ISM Non-Manufacturing Index

9:30 am CT– Natural Gas Inventories

Markets close at 12:00 pm CT

Markets closed on Friday



Notable Earnings:   

Thursday – 7/3:

Before Market:  ESI

After Market:  N/A



Monday – 7/7:

Before Market:  N/A

After Market:  N/A

aimei

高开低走

沁颍

July 6, 2014  Weekend Update

Stocks once again showed strength this past holiday-shortened week. The highlight of the week was Thursday’s Employment report which was above expectations and saw healthy growth. Higher than expected housing data did not boost equities to start the week but the major benchmark indices still rallied into record territory. Auto sales out-performed and manufacturing data is still trending higher. On Thursday, the last day of trading for the week, an unexpectedly strong jobs report for June sent stocks higher and the Dow ($DJI) over the 17,000 mark. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) was up 1.2% this past week while the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) finished up 1.3%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) led the gains up 2% and the small caps (RUT) finished the week up 1.6%. All the major indices are up for the year led by the S&P and Nasdaq, which are both higher by over 7%.



Option Volatility reflected the bullish trend in stocks as it continued to weaken. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is under $11 and is at seven-year lows. A low interest rate environment and an accommodative stance by the Fed are providing the fuel for the move into riskier assets such as stocks. Economic data is relatively light this week so any downside catalyst may still be a ways off. For the second quarter, the recovery has regained strength across a variety of sectors. Clearly, the consumer and manufacturing sectors are gaining strength. However, construction and housing is uncertain. Second quarter GDP growth should be relatively strong but it has to make up for the weak first quarter numbers.



Treasury yields ended the week up somewhat strongly. After essentially no change Monday on little news, rates rose Tuesday on stronger than expected manufacturing data, auto sales and on increased belief the economic data are healthy enough for the Fed to nudge up its schedule for increases in policy rates. On Wednesday and Thursday, the jobs data affirmed the positive economic situation which once again had yields rising. It was a relatively quiet week for Oil Futures (/CL) but it did grind lower. The increased belief that internal strife in Iraq would not interrupt oil production produced a slide in crude prices.



With a relatively light schedule this week except for the TD Ameritrade IMX data, the focus is on the consumer. After this past week's favorable employment report for June, attention will be on whether other consumer sector indicators confirm the better jobs numbers. But there likely will be a good chance of pullback after recently strong numbers. Job openings were up notably in the latest report for April. Earnings season also kicks off this week, albeit in a quiet way.  Reports are due from Alcoa (AA) and Wells Fargo (WFC).


Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday:  N/A



Tuesday: AA, TCS, TZ



Wednesday: NG, RT, SYRG



Thursday: FDO, PGR



Friday: FAST, INFY, WFC



Economic Releases (7/7-7/11):

Monday:

11:30 am CT – TD Ameritrade IMX

                                                                                                                                                                                

Tuesday:

6:30 am CT – NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales

9:00 am CT– JOLTS

12:00 pm CT – Fed’s Lacker Speaks

12:00 pm CT – 3-year Note Auction Results

12:45 pm CT – Fed’s Kocherlakota Speaks

                                                                                                                                                                                                              

Wednesday:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 10-year Note Auction Results

1:00 pm CT – FOMC Minutes

                    

Thursday:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

9:00 am CT– Wholesale Trade

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 30-year Bond Auction Results

12:15 pm CT – Fed’s George Speaks

3:30 pm CT – Fed’s Fisher Speaks

                                                                                                                                                                                                        

Friday:

10:15 pm CT – Fed’s Plosser Speaks

1:00 pm CT – Fed’s Evans Speaks

1:00 pm CT – Treasury Budget

沁颍

7/7/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are pointing to a slightly lower open as investors return from the holiday weekend. The early weakness could have been triggered by statements by IMF head Christine Lagarde that were seen as hints that the organization will cut its world GDP forecast. On a positive note, China’s premier said his country’s economy is improving. There will be little else for investors to key in on today as little economic data is slated to be released, and the summer doldrums may be beginning to take hold. Earnings season kicks off this week but will be fully in focus next week as any improving corporate news could provide the next leg up for equities.



Treasuries are relatively flat after falling last week. Overseas news saw weaker than expected German production helped boost Treasuries. The 10-year yield is flat at 2.65% after retesting 2.5% just a week ago. Equities are lower on profit taking from record gains on Wall Street and the strongest rally in European exchanges since March. Today's calendar is thin with just the TD Ameritrade IMX data due.  Treasury supply will be a focal point this week as the market digests $61 B in Treasury auctions, starting tomorrow. The FOMC Minutes from the June 17, 18 policy meeting (Wednesday) will be of considerable interest too.  



Stock Stories:

Boeing (BA) – Derailed? –A train derailment in Montana sent three fuselages for its 737 jetliner tumbling down an embankment toward a river and damaged other plane parts. Analysts do not believe this will negatively affect the stock and the shares are flat ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

11:30 am CT – TD Ameritrade IMX



Notable Earnings:   

Monday – 7/7:

Before Market:  N/A

After Market:  N/A



Tuesday – 7/8:

Before Market:  N/A

After Market:  AA, HTZ, TCS

aimei

sounds bad for BA

沁颍

7/8/2014

Stock futures (/ES) are pointing to a slightly lower open as the weakness from yesterday’s session looks set to continue today. Weak markets overseas and some potential profit taking had equities under pressure throughout Monday’s session. The weakness could have been triggered by statements by IMF head Lagarde that were seen as hints that the organization will cut its world GDP forecast. Volatility spiked on the downturn as traders bought options. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) jumped 10% but it was off extremely low levels.



U.S. Treasuries are up modestly this morning after solid gains yesterday. The ‘Risk-Off’ trade was prominent as investors switched on recent flows. The 10-year yield is down below 2.6% again and could be signaling a further demand for the safety of Bonds. Asian markets were mixed but European stocks once again are lower ahead of the U.S. open. Economic data is light today with only the JOTLS report of any significance. There is plenty of Fed-Speak to potentially roil markets and earnings season unofficially kicks off tonight with the release of quarterly results from Alcoa (AA).  



Stock Stories:

Facebook (FB) – Vidiot –Facebook updated its mobile video player with a new "suggested videos" feature that could encourage more video uploading to the site and opens up an advertising opportunity for sponsored video suggestions. The shares also received an analyst price target raise. The shares are flat ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

6:30 am CT – NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales – Up 1.7% for the week

9:00 am CT– JOLTS

12:00 pm CT – Fed’s Lacker Speaks

12:00 pm CT – 3-year Note Auction Results

12:45 pm CT – Fed’s Kocherlakota Speaks



Notable Earnings:   

Tuesday – 7/8:

Before Market:  N/A

After Market:  AA, HTZ, TCS



Wednesday – 7/9:

Before Market:  SYRG

After Market:  LFC, NG, RT

aimei

AA ER after close

沁颍

7/9/2014

Stock futures (/ES) are pointing to a slightly higher open as markets try to break their two-day losing streak. Small caps (RUT, IWM) once again led the declines but tech and high-flyers also forced the sectors lower than the Blue Chip indices (SPY, DIA). Increasing hawkish comments from some Fed members will have all eyes on the FOMC minutes released today. Volatility spiked again as stocks were under more pressure on Tuesday. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has now risen 16% this week and hopefully we have seen the bottom in premium. We could see some give back today if stocks stay in positive territory.



Treasuries are modestly lower in light trading. The 10-year yield edged up to 2.57% but remains in a tight range. Many expect rates to rise sooner than expected but most have been dead wrong as bond prices remain elevated. There wasn't much data overseas but U.K. house prices declined 0.6% in June and China CPI slowed to 2.3% year-over-year. A watchful eye is being kept on the violence in the Middle East as turmoil has erupted once again in Gaza. Alcoa unofficially kicked off earnings season with a beat. There's not a lot on the economic docket today. The Treasury reopens $21 B in 10-year notes at auction. The main focus will be on the FOMC Minutes to the June 17, 18 policy meeting, which will be released this afternoon. The MBA report mortgage applications rebounded 1.9% in the week ended July 4 but the housing sector remains a question mark.



Stock Stories:

Alcoa (AA) –Tin –The aluminum giant posted better than expected quarterly results yesterday after the close. The company reiterated its global demand growth target of 7% and raised its 2014 estimate for North America transportation market. The shares are up slightly ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications – Up 1.9%

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 10-year Note Auction Results

1:00 pm CT – FOMC Minutes



Notable Earnings:   

Wednesday – 7/9:

Before Market:  SYRG

After Market:  LFC, NG, RT



Thursday – 7/10:

Before Market:  FDO, PGR

After Market:  CUDA, PSMT

沁颍

7/10/2014

Stock futures (/ES) are pointing to a sharply lower open as markets are under pressure from a few different angles. Investors are digesting yesterday’s FOMC minutes, dealing with a potential banking crisis in the Euro-Zone, turmoil in Gaza and corporate economic warnings. The parent of a key Portuguese Bank delayed short-term debt payments which has most major European banks under heavy pressure. The Fed plans to exit its bond buying program by October but keep interest lows. Recent positive economic and jobs data was not in yesterday’s FOMC minutes so hawkish comments were not as plentiful as many expected. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell only modestly yesterday as stocks were under pressure until the end of the day rally. We should see a sharp spike higher in the ‘Fear Gauge’ today if stocks remain in negative territory.



Treasuries are sharply higher this morning as investors reposition themselves with the ‘Risk-Off’ position. The 10-year yield is back down to the 2.5% level and may be under more pressure than expected. Besides the banking issues in Europe, poor economic news is also roiling markets. Italy’s industrial production unexpectedly fell 1.2% in May, the biggest decline since November 2012, and French production also surprised with a 1.7% drop, the largest fall in more than 18 months. Chinese Trade data also missed expectations to the downside. Economic data is light with just the Weekly Jobless Claims and Wholesale trade due today. There is more Fed-Speak on tap also but most focus will most likely be on overseas developments.  Earnings season begins in full-force tomorrow with the release of quarterly results from Wells Fargo (WFC).



Stock Stories:

Lumber Liquidators (LL) –Tin –The Company warned yesterday after the close that FY14 will be much lower than expected. They blamed significantly weaker consumer traffic as the housing sector continues to lag the economic recovery. The shares are down over 20% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

9:00 am CT– Wholesale Trade

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 30-year Bond Auction Results

12:15 pm CT – Fed’s George Speaks

3:30 pm CT – Fed’s Fisher Speaks



Notable Earnings:   

Thursday – 7/10:

Before Market:  FDO, PGR

After Market:  CUDA, PSMT



Friday – 7/11:

Before Market:  FAST, INFY, WFC

After Market:  N/A