沁颍

5/27/2014

U.S. stock futures (/ES) are indicating an optimistic start to the shortened trading week.  All eyes will be on the durable goods survey this morning at 7:30 CT to measure companies’ willingness to spend on larger ticket items over the last month. The expectation is a modest decline of 0.7% after April’s strong surge. Any positive beat may likely send markets even higher as the bar is set quite low.



European Markets hit a fresh 6 year high earlier this morning off more merger speculation along with a higher possibility of further rate cuts hinted from ECB President Mario Draghi’s most recent speech.  Japan’s Nikkei is marking a seven-week high and saw its fourth consecutive day of gains off the heels of positive manufacturing data from China.



Gold Futures (/GC) took over a 1% dip over the weekend as the election process in Ukraine has been met with only minor incidence.  The move marks a two-week low as investors rotate out of the safe haven for more aggressive assets in light of the recent resurgence in equity buying.



Stock Stories:



Hillshire Brands (HSH) – Food Fight??  – Pilgrim’s Pride just offered $45 per share to purchase Hillshire Brands this morning.  Ironically, Hillshire also recently announced a deal to purchase Pinnacle Foods (PF) which may be in jeopardy depending on the outcome.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Core Durable Goods Orders

8:00 am CT – Housing Price Index

8:30 am CT – ECB President Draghi Speaks

8:45 am CT – Flash Services PMI

9:00 am CT – Consumer Confidence

9:00 am CT –Richmond Manufacturing Index


Notable Earnings:



Tuesday 5/27:

Before Market: AZO, JKS

After Market: QIHU, WDAY, WTSL



Wednesday – 5/28:

Before Market: BWS, CHS, DAKT, DSW, TOL

After Market:  PANW,PLKI

沁颍

5/29/2014

U.S. stock futures (/ES) are trading near slightly higher ahead of several economic data points. Investors will be watching the annualized GDP report, personal consumption reading, jobless claims data, and energy inventories reports for clues about the economy. Trading has been light during this holiday shortened week, and the pattern will probably continue during today’s session.  Option Volatility rose yesterday despite the strength in equities. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is at support levels just below $12 and has bounced off these levels repeatedly over the last year.



Treasuries extended gains slightly overnight as the global bond rally continued. The 10-year yield tested 2.42% and is at levels not seen since last June. There wasn't much news overnight. Japan retail sales fell 4.4%, in line with expectations. Meanwhile, month-end duration demand and expectations for ECB stimulus next week helped keep a bid in global bonds. Forecasts for a downward revision to the upcoming U.S. Q1 GDP are also supporting Treasuries. With the lowered expectations for growth, we should see muted downside today or another ‘Buy on the Dip’ on any weakness.



Stock Stories:

Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) – Comeback –The retailer posted earnings above expectations as the company beat on EPS and top-line revenue this past quarter.The company is maintaining its guidance in FY15, which now includes the effect of the Q1 accelerated share repurchase. The shares are up 7% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT– Preliminary GDP

9:00 am CT– Pending Home Sales

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Storage

10:00 am CT – Crude Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 7-year note Auction Results  



Notable Earnings:   

Thursday 5/29:

Before Market:   ANF, COST, DG

After Market:   AVGO, EXPR, GES, PSUN, SPLK



Friday – 5/30:

Before Market:  ANN, BIG, NGL

After Market:  N/A

沁颍

5/30/2014

U.S. stock futures (/ES)are slightly lower and quiet in early trading. The market hopes to build on yesterday’s moderate advance which pushed the S&P 500 (SPX) to a new all-time closing high. Today investors will be watching the personal income and spending reports, the Chicago purchasing managers' report, and the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for clues about the health of the economy. Economists are expecting the April consumer spending number to be unchanged after the largest jump since 2009 in March. Once again investors may ignore any downbeat numbers just as they did with the negative GDP report yesterday.



Bond markets are flat to slightly lower in pretty good volume. The 10-year yield is trading narrowly around 2.47% and continues to reflect the demand for Treasuries. There was lots of data out of Japan and Europe but the reports failed to provide any defined direction. Overseas investors will have their focus on the ECB and the meeting and announcement next Thursday the 5th. Markets are rallying on the notion that the ECB will provide further stimulus plans but it could be another buy the rumor sell the news scenario if it comes in less than expected. Traders today will also focus on Fed-speak, from Lacker, Plosser and Williams from a monetary policy conference in California.



Stock Stories:

Wal-Mart (WMT) – Disparity –The retailer defends its level of executive compensation in a SEC filing after getting blasted earlier this week by ISS on the issue and others. The company says its top management was paid cash bonuses and performance share payouts that were at a "historically low" level despite getting an adjustment that caught the eyes of ISS. The shares are flat ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Personal Spending/Income

8:45 am CT– Chicago PMI

8:55 am CT– Consumer Sentiment

1:00 pm CT– Fed’s Lacker Speaks  

4:00 pm CT– Fed’s Plosser Speaks  



Notable Earnings:   

Friday 5/30:

Before Market:   ANN, BIG, NGL

After Market:   N/A



Monday – 6/2:

Before Market:  CONN

After Market:  KKD, VRNT

not4weak

买rsx?

沁颍

要买的话在21-22附近买，如果能买到的话。。。
回复 19# not4weak

aimei

买rsx?
not4weak 发表于 2014-5-30 09:51

要靠乌克兰把它打下来

沁颍

Weekend Update

June 1, 2014


Equities ended this past holiday shortened week moderately up. The week began Tuesday with healthy gains as the Small-cap and technology stocks led the broad rally. Better than expected economic data, including durable goods orders and home prices boosted sentiment as the S&P 500 (SPX) closed at a record high. On Wednesday, stocks fell with weakness led by retailers. Thursday saw a jump in stocks even though a downward revision to first quarter GDP was more negative than forecast. Analysts still attribute much of the weakness in GDP to adverse weather but that excuse is now gone. More than offsetting the reading for GDP was a sharp drop in initial unemployment claims. The week ended mixed with Blue Chips up and many other major indexes down. An unexpected dip in consumer spending from the personal income report weighed on stocks into the end of the week. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) was up a robust 1.2% this past week while the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) was up a modest 0.7%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) led the major indices to the upside jumping 1.4% on the heels of more gains in its biggest component Apple (AAPL).The small caps (RUT) finished the week up a modest 0.7% and is still down for the year.



Option Volatility remained at extremely low levels and Friday touched its lowest intra-day price in a year. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) was actually flat for the week as we seem to have hit some support near $11.30.  The VIX has consistently bounced off of current levels for over a year so hopefully we see the same scenario play out as earnings season winds down.Gold futures (/GC) fell again this past week as inflation concerns wane and demand is weakening. The precious metal fell over 3% for the week and is at multi-month lows.



Treasury yields were mixed this past week. At the start of the week on Tuesday, a slow rise in home prices offset stronger durables orders. Also, belief that the Fed would go slow on taper became more entrenched. A rally in government bonds in Europe made U.S. Treasuries more attractive, pushing yields down mid-week. An unexpected rise in unemployment in Germany fueled speculation that the European Central Bank will add stimulus at this week's policy meeting. Many had predicted a rise in rates but so far have been completely wrong as supply and demand have pushed U.S. Treasury prices higher.



This week's highlight is Friday's employment report for May. Also providing updates on the consumer sector will be motor vehicle sales and the ADP private employment report. The manufacturing sector is showing renewed vigor and early readings at the national level will come from this week's PMI and ISM index. Watch for news out of Europe on Thursday this week as the ECB is expected to increase its economic stimulus efforts. Any disappointment from them will most likely punish markets as most recent gains are based on something that will have a big impact.


Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday:  CONN, KKD, VRNT



Tuesday: FCEL, SWHC



Wednesday: FIVE, JOSB, PVH



Thursday:  CIEN, DMND, JOY, MTN, SJM, TITN



Friday: KMG



Economic Releases (6/2-6/6):

Monday:

3:00 am CT – Fed’s Evans Speaks

8:45 am CT– PMI Mfg. Index

9:00 am CT– ISM Mfg. Index

9:00 am CT– Construction Spending

                                                                                                                                                                                

Tuesday:

Auto Sales – all day

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales

9:00 am CT– Factory Orders

12:50 pm CT – Fed’s George Speaks

                                                                                                                                                                                                              

Wednesday:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

7:15 am CT – ADP Employment Report

7:30 am CT– International Trade

7:30 am CT– Productivity & Costs

8:45 am CT– PMI Services Index

9:00 am CT– ISM Mfg. Index

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

1:00 pm CT – Beige Book

                    

Thursday:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

9:30 am CT– Natural Gas Inventories

12:30 am CT – Fed’s Kocherlakota Speaks

                                                                                                                                                                                                        

Friday:

9:00 am CT – Jobs Report

2:00 pm CT – Consumer Credit

aimei

thanks

沁颍

6/2/2014

U.S. stock futures (/ES)are trading slightly higher ahead of the markets open. Last week ended with the Dow and S&P at record levels. The futures are quiet despite positive manufacturing data out of China. The world's second largest economy has now reported positive manufacturing data for three months in a row. Investors will be watching several U.S. economic data points today including ISM manufacturing, PMI and construction spending for the month of April. The Fed’s uber-dove Evans spoke overnight in Turkey on timing of a rate hike and once again pinned the time frame on inflation, which is still too low.



Treasuries are a little lower after a mixed performance in global bonds. This follows a good performance in bonds last month. The 10-year Treasury yield edged up to 2.49%, and Asian fixed income markets were mostly lower too. China's PMI and Japan's Capex Survey both beat expectations to give Asian stocks a solid lift. But European PMIs generally disappointed, while German state CPI data suggests a dip below 1% in the figure for May. Also, U.K. mortgage approvals and business lending data disappointed. It's an important week of data and events with the markets looking ahead to Thursday's ECB decision and Friday's U.S. May employment report.



Stock Stories:

Apple (AAPL) – Developed –The tech retailerhas its annual Worldwide Developers Conference beginning today in San Francisco. The company is expected to announce a major refresh of OS X. Analysts say Apple will not announce a set-top box, larger iPhone or a smartwatch at the conference. The shares are up slightly ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

3:00 am CT – Fed’s Evans Speaks

8:45 am CT– PMI Mfg. Index

9:00 am CT– ISM Mfg. Index

9:00 am CT– Construction Spending



Notable Earnings:   

Monday 6/2:

Before Market:   CONN

After Market:   KKD, VRNT



Tuesday – 6/3:

Before Market:  N/A

After Market:  ABM, FCEL, SWHC

aimei

双方势均力敌

沁颍

6/3/2014

U.S. stock futures (/ES) are lower this morning after the Dow and S&P closed at new highs yesterday. Today’s early weakness is being linked to the Euro-Zone’s weak inflation rate, and it's unlikely that a catalyst will emerge to help boost the market’s fortunes. Investors will not have much to focus on as economic news is light today. Option volatility remains stubbornly low but has finally found some support at current levels. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is still under $12 but should get a boost today if stocks stay in negative territory.



Treasuries are a lower again today after falling sharply yesterday. Bonds have found some weakness and yields may have seen a recent bottoming last week. The 10-year Treasury yield rose back above 2.5% and is now sitting near 2.56%. Overseas markets are mixed with most of the Euro-zone in negative territory after the weak inflation data. This data could provide further pressure for the ECB to increase its stimulus package that is expected on Thursday of this week. A surprise drop in German unemployment added to the bearish action as did a solid gain in U.K. home prices, which are above its pre-recession 2007 highs. Today's calendar includes vehicle sales for May, April factory orders, and weekly chain store sales, but there should be limited market reaction. There will be Fed-speak on the economy from noted Hawk George this afternoon.



Stock Stories:

AT&T (T) – Guiding –The telecom giant reaffirms FY14 guidance for stable consolidated margins and revenue growth in the 5% range. The company cited its Project VIP network transformation plan being ahead of schedule and its plans driving a shift in the company’s wireless revenue components. The shares are up slightly ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

Auto Sales – all day

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales -

9:00 am CT– Factory Orders

12:50 pm CT – Fed’s George Speaks



Notable Earnings:   

Tuesday 6/3:

Before Market:   DG

After Market:   ABM, FCEL, SWHC



Wednesday – 6/4:

Before Market:  HOV, JOSB

After Market:  FIVE, PVH

沁颍

6/4/2014

U.S. stock futures (/ES)are trading slightly lower this morning after a lackluster session yesterday. Investors begin to look forward to the May employment data that will begin to be released today. The ADP Employment Change report, which measures service sector jobs in the economy, is expected to show that the economy added 210,000 such jobs and is a precursor to Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report from the government. Option protection remains cheap as the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is still under $12. Volumes have been extremely low and the market continues to play a waiting game for some type of catalyst.



Bonds are little changed to slightly lower and off their best levels from overnight. The 10-year yield fell to 2.56% overnight, but has edged back up to 2.6%. Global bonds are lower, even as equities are lagging. Trading volume was moderate volume ahead of the ECB meeting announcement tomorrow. Data were mixed with Euro-zone services PMI revised lower, but the U.K. nonmanufacturing PMI beating expectations. Meanwhile, Euro-zone PPI improved year over year while Q1 GDP came in at 0.2%. In the U.S., the markets will look to May ADP data (miss) this morning, along with ISM services and revised Q1 productivity, and trade. The MBA reported mortgage applications fell 3.1% in the week ended May 30. The weaker trend in mortgage activity came despite another drop in average mortgage rates. The Fed also releases its Beige Book this afternoon and should show an improving U.S. economy.



Stock Stories:

Panera Bread Co (PNRA) – What the?! –The casual dining chain plans to remove artificial ingredients from its menu by 2016 under a new food policy. Though the restaurant chain will get high marks from health advocates for the shift, analysts warn the pressure to comply with the "nothing artificial" claim will require heavy oversight and extra costs.  



Major Economic Reports:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications – Down 3.1% for week

7:15 am CT – ADP Employment Report

7:30 am CT– International Trade

7:30 am CT– Productivity & Costs

8:45 am CT– PMI Services Index

9:00 am CT– ISM Mfg. Index

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

1:00 pm CT – Beige Book



Notable Earnings:   

Wednesday 6/4:

Before Market:   HOV, JOSB

After Market:   FIVE, PVH



Thursday – 6/5:

Before Market:  CIEN, JOY, SJM, TITN

After Market:  ALOG, DMND, IDT, MTN, PAY

aimei

Private-sector hiring in May hit the slowest pace in four months as service providers decreased their rate of hiring, according to data released Wednesday morning.

沁颍

bad news...
回复 28# aimei

沁颍

6/6/2014

U.S. stock futures (/ES) are suggesting a higher open following another record close for the Dow and S&P 500 yesterday. Investors are awaiting the non-farm payrolls report which is expected to show that the economy added 215,000 jobs last month. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 6.4% from last month’s 6.3% as more people join the workforce. Earlier this week the ADP jobs data missed on the downside and we still rallied, so more of the same would be expected.  The ECB acted as expected yesterday as they lowered interest rates modestly and set the deposit rate into negative territory. ECB head Draghi also indicated they will take more necessary steps to increase inflation and lending in the Euro-zone.



Treasuries are slightly higher and are attempting to add to yesterday’s gains. The 10-year yield fell off the 2.6% level but the jobs data will dictate direction today.  Europe continues to gain following the ECB's move into negative rate territory yesterday. Germany’s state bank raised its growth forecast today and has the burden of leading the Euro-Zone into recovery mode.  Asian shares were relatively flat for the session. The focus is all about the jobs data and there is not much else on today's calendar, with just April consumer credit on tap.



Stock Stories:

Amazon.com (AMZN) – Slim Phone, Slimmer margins –The online retailer/cloud company has an announcement on June 18thand many expect it to be their first foray into the smartphone segment. As typical with AMZN, they will most likely price it to sell and not make any money as they work to get more traffic to their site. The stock rose 5% yesterday on the rumor and is up slightly ahead of the opening bell this morning.  



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Jobs Report

2:00 pm CT – Consumer Credit



Notable Earnings:   

Friday - 6/6:

Before Market:   KMG

After Market:   N/A



Monday – 6/9:

Before Market:  HTZ

After Market:  N/A