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沁颍

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May 11, 2014

Equities started off last week relatively strong after an improvement in the ISM non-manufacturing index and PMI services index but were mostly down this past week. Somewhat off-setting was a weak reading on China's manufacturing sector. Equities were mixed at mid-week with techs being moderately on the downside. Markets reacted favorably to Fed Chair Janet Yellen's testimony before Congress which indicated continued loose monetary policy. Stocks were mostly down Thursday even as initial jobless claims fell sharply. Losses were led by the energy and utility sectors. Yellen gave a second day of testimony but with little additional comments on policy. On Friday, on little news, equities were little changed on low volume but generally up slightly. According to analysts some investors have started expressing concern that economic growth may not be strong enough to support stocks near record highs. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) fell a minimal 0.1% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) outperformed by rising 0.4%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) fell 1.3% and the small caps (RUT) led the downside off 1.9%. The divergence between small caps and tech vs. the Blue chips will eventually sort itself out but right now they are moving in opposite directions.



Option Volatility reacted much like stocks which was flat for the week. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) sits just below $13 as fear to the downside is low. Developments in Ukraine eased this past week on comments from Russia and option protection prices are reflecting the low risk.  Markets got what they wanted from Fed Chair Janet Yellen's Congressional testimony this past week—continued loose monetary policy and stocks are trading in a tight range. Hopefully the correction territory that small caps are in will spark some additional volatility this week.



Treasury yields this past week were down moderately on the short end. However, the 30-year bond rate rose notably. Yields were little changed but down marginally Tuesday ahead Fed Chair Janet Yellen's testimony before Congress. Violence in Ukraine also put downward pressure on rates. At mid-week, short rates eased slightly after Yellen indicated in Congressional testimony that a high degree of accommodation is still warranted. Also weighing on note yields were comments from the European Central Bank that it may cut rates next month if inflation remains low. The 30-year bond appears to be drifting upward as taper has become more certain. It is the long end that is most affected by reduction of Fed purchases of bonds.



Earnings season is winding down and it has so far been a decent quarter for corporations. The reatial sector will be in the spotlight as reports are due from Macy’s (M), Kohl’s (KSS) and Wal-Mart (WMT). This week will also let us know if the spring is still providing improved economic data. Two of the biggest reports this week may help answer whether Q2 is picking up. Retail sales jumped in March and there may still be some "catch up" activity in April. Housing has shown little rebound in activity. The earlier report this week is the Housing Market Index which will give an important reading on buyer traffic. The following day, the housing starts report may show a pickup in momentum after employment picked up. Inflation data will also be in focus as reports on PPI and CPI are due.


Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday:  AMBC, ARNA, CVG, GFN, GOGO, MBI, MCK, RAX



Tuesday: DRD, TTWO, VTNR



Wednesday: A, CSCO, DE, M, PLUG, RMAX, VLP



Thursday:  AAP, ADSK, AMAT, CA, DDS, JCP, JWN, KSS, SINA, WMT



Friday: SJM



Economic Releases (5/12-5/16):

Monday:

11:00 am CT – Fed’s Plosser Speaks

1:00 pm CT – Treasury Budget

                                                                                                                                                                                

Tuesday:

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales

7:30 am CT – Retail Sales

7:30 am CT – Import & Export Prices

9:00 am CT – Business Inventories

9:30 am CT – Fed’s Lacker Speaks

                                                                                                                                                                                                              

Wednesday:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

7:30 am CT – Producer Price Index (PPI)

9:00 am CT – Housing Marker Index

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

                    

Thursday:

Fed’s Yellen Speaks

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT –Consumer Price Index (CPI)

7:30 am CT – Empire State Mfg. Survey

7:30 am CT– Fed’s Dudley Speaks

8:00 am CT– Treasury Intl. Capital

8:15 am CT– Industrial Production

9:00 am CT – Philly Fed Survey

9:30 am CT– Natural Gas Inventories

                                                                                                                                                                                                        

Friday:

7:30 am CT – Housing Starts

8:55 am CT – Consumer Sentiment

10:50 am CT – Fed’s Bullard Speaks

aimei

Thanks
ARNA er on Monday AH

沁颍

5/12/2014

Stock futures (/ES) are higher despite pro-Russian separatists' claim of victory in votes on self-rule by provinces in east Ukraine. Russian officials cheered the results and U.S. officials condemned them. Investors focus today will be on earnings reports this week, as well as a monthly budget statement that will be released this afternoon. The CBOE volatility index (VIX) continues to languish at low levels below $13 as fear to the downside is low. There are plenty of headwinds which should be in the back of investors minds. War in Ukraine, the Chinese economy and deflation in Europe are just a few of the examples that could roil markets in the near-term.



Treasuries are slightly lower as stocks push higher.  The 10-year yield is near 2.63% and remains in a tight range under 2.8%. Global equities are largely higher despite pro-Russian separatists declaring a resounding victory in a "self-rule" referendum for Donetsk in eastern Ukraine. China's Shanghai Composite index jumped 2.1% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng 1.8% after Beijing outlined a broad range of capital-market reforms on Friday. These include a more investor-driven system for IPOs and easier access for foreign capital. European stocks were also rising, shaking off the latest developments in Ukraine. The recent small-cap decline in the U.S. has many predicting that M&A activity will continue to pick up while others believe it is forecasting a drop in the overall market.



Stock Stories:

Allergan (AGN) – Rejected –The company rejected Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX) unsolicited offer.  They stating that it significantly undervalues the company, creates significant risks and uncertainties for shareholders and is not in the best interests of the company and shareholders.



Major Economic Reports:

11:00 am CT – Fed’s Plosser Speaks

1:00 pm CT – Treasury Budget



Notable Earnings:   

Monday 5/12:

Before Market:   BPI, GOG, HNR, NIHD, ZINC

After Market:   AMBC, ARNA, CVG, MBI, MCK, RAX, RDEN, VGR



Tuesday – 5/13:

Before Market:  DRD, FHN, PFIN, VTNR

After Market:  TTWO, YUME

沁颍

5/13/2014

U.S. stock futures (/ES) are pointing to a higher open. The Dow (DIA) and S&P 500 (SPX) closed at new all-time highs, and investors are hoping the market can extend its gains. Earnings season is winding down, and little economic data has been reported recently. Today investors will examine advance retail sales figures which are due out at 7:30 am CT and are expected to show continued growth from the lackluster winter. The CBOE volatility index (VIX) hit below $12 yesterday at one point and continues to weaken. Option premium is getting extremely low and protection in the markets is cheap.  With all-time highs for equities and investor confidence rising, we may see a continued grind higher for stocks in the near-term. Small cap stocks (IWM) out-paced the overall market yesterday as increased M&A activity and an over-sold condition provided the power to push them up by 2.2%.



Global equities mostly rise following Wall Street's strong performance yesterday as investors focus on the improving U.S. economy rather than the tensions in Ukraine and more weak economic data out of China. Despite the rise, Germany’s investor confidence survey fell and sentiment for the Euro-zone missed estimates to the downside. Indian shares continue to party on the healthy probability that the Bharatiya Janata Party has won the country's general election. Treasuries are flat to slightly higher as stocks pushed to all-time highs.  Bonds rebounded overnight in conjunction with gains in European debt markets amid a report that Germany’s Bundesbank is willing to endorse new ECB stimulus measures. Earnings today are light so investors will focus on economic data today.  April trade prices are due, along with March business inventories and weekly chain store sales. The Fed's Lockhart spoke overnight and noted some exit tools and strategies for the U.S.



Stock Stories:

Pfizer (PFE) – Courted –In an effort to begin trying to convince British lawmakers about how he feels his company's bid for AstraZeneca (AZN) is good for the U.K. economy, Pfizer (PFE) CEO Ian Read is appearing before the Business, Innovation and Skills Committee. Pfizer is aiming to sweeten the $101.9B offer for AstraZeneca for a second time and will most likely wait until after the hearings to up the offer. This questioning often leads to a less likely takeover as Parliament hammers the CEO’s about workings of the deal.



Major Economic Reports:

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales – Down 0.1% for the week

7:30 am CT – Retail Sales

7:30 am CT – Import & Export Prices

9:00 am CT – Business Inventories

9:30 am CT – Fed’s Lacker Speaks



Notable Earnings:   

Tuesday 5/13:

Before Market:   DRD, FHN, PFIN, VTNR

After Market:   TTWO, YUME



Wednesday – 5/14:

Before Market:  DE, M, PLUG, SODA, VLP

After Market:  A, CSCO, JACK, RMAX

沁颍

5/14/2014

***Sorry for the delay as there were technical issues this morning***

U.S. stock futures (/ES) are trading slightly lower ahead of the release of producer prices (PPI) data for April. Analysts are predicting that prices increased 0.2% overall, while the core reading which removes food and energy is expected to show an increase of 0.2% as well. Little additional economic data is slated to be released except for the weekly Department of Energy inventory numbers and Housing information which are due out after the market opens. The CBOE volatility index (VIX) should firm up today if stocks remain in negative territory.  The S&P 500 (SPX) hit above $1900 for the first time yesterday but quickly fell from the all-time high levels. Despite this, small caps (IWM) once again diverged and fell almost 1% in Tuesday’s session.



Yields skidded lower in tandem with those of European bonds after ECB's Praet reiterated in more specific terms that a package of monetary measures is being prepared ahead of the June meeting. U.S. Bonds continue to strengthen even as stocks hit record highs. Equities are mildly lower in Europe and Asia was down slightly. The MBA reported a 3.6% rise in the market index this morning, with purchases -0.1% but refi’s saw a big jump of 7%. Traders will be keeping an eye on whether the S&P 500 (SPX) can recapture that 1,900 level, though few catalysts are seen on the horizon.



Stock Stories:

Deere & Co. (DE) – Getting Plowed over –The equipment-maker posted better than expected top and bottom line quarterly results this morning.Although the agricultural economy remains in a relatively healthy condition, farm income is forecast to be lower than last year. The decline is putting pressure on demand for farm equipment, especially for larger models. The company’s shares are down 1% in the pre-market, which is less than the 2.5% that the option market anticipated.



Soda Stream (SODA) – Flat – The home soda-maker reported earnings this morning that beat on EPS and Revenue slightly.  The company reports a sharp drop in U.S. sales during Q1 after a "challenging" holiday set the stage for a drop in demand. Traders are taking note of the headwinds as the stock is down 3% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

7:30 am CT – Producer Price Index (PPI)

9:00 am CT – Housing Marker Index

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories



Notable Earnings:   

Wednesday 5/14:

Before Market:   DE, M, PLUG, SODA, VLP

After Market:   A, CSCO, JACK, RMAX



Thursday – 5/15:

Before Market:  AAP,CA, COSI, KSS, PBH, WMT

After Market:  ADSK, AMAT, JCP, JWN, SINA

西门吹雪

沁颍

5/15/2014

U.S. stock futures (/ES) are trading slightly lower as the market will try to get back to its winning ways following yesterday’s decline. Wednesday saw steep declines as a hot PPI report and a jump in bond prices set the negative tone for equities. Today investors will be watching economic data for direction. Retailers have begun to release quarterly results and the sentiment on consumer spending is weaker than expected. They continue to blame weather and both Kohl’s (KSS) and Wal-Mart (WMT) are sharply lower in the pre-market. Despite the fall in stocks yesterday, the CBOE volatility index (VIX) finished the session relatively flat.  Traders continue to monitor the spread between the Dow and S&P 500 versus the tech and small cap sectors. Are the latter forecasting a correction or will they reverse and catch up to the large cap stocks?



Bonds are up slightly after spiking higher yesterday. Many have predicted higher rates this year but have been completely wrong. The 10-year yield has dipped to 2.53%, on track to test the 2.50% psychological threshold ahead of the October low at 2.47%. European stocks are lower after mixed GDP data out of the euro-zone, with France and Italy especially disappointing, although Germany maintained its role as the engine of growth. Asian stocks trade mixed as investors digest earnings and strong but probably temporary Japanese economic growth. The packed data calendar includes CPI, jobless claims, industrial production, the Empire State manufacturing survey, the Philly Fed survey, homebuilder sentiment survey, and Treasury capital flows. Fed Chair Yellen will speak at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce after the close of the market today.



Stock Stories:

Wal-Mart (WMT) – Excuses for sale –The retail giant missed badly on quarterly EPS and revenue this morning.The company stated that severe weather adversely impacted comp sales. The company’s shares are down 3% in the pre-market, which is more than the 2% that the option market estimated.



Cisco (CSCO) – Beating – The tech bellwether reported earnings last night that beat on EPS and Revenue as the company continues to restructure. Investors like the news as the shares are up 6.5% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT –Consumer Price Index (CPI)

7:30 am CT – Empire State Mfg. Survey

7:30 am CT– Fed’s Dudley Speaks

8:00 am CT– Treasury Intl. Capital

8:15 am CT– Industrial Production

9:00 am CT – Philly Fed Survey

9:00 am CT – Housing Market Index

9:30 am CT– Natural Gas Inventories

5:10 pm CT – Fed’s Yellen Speaks



Notable Earnings:   

Thursday 5/15:

Before Market:   AAP, CA, COSI, KSS, PBH, WMT

After Market:   ADSK, AMAT, JCP, JWN, SINA



Friday – 5/16:

Before Market:  CSIQ, SORL

After Market:  N/A

oldhorse

5/15/2014

U.S. stock futures (/ES) are trading slightly lower as the market will try to get back  ...
mooncake 发表于 2014-5-15 08:41

sina5月21日er
，不是15日。
正琢磨赌大还是赌小。

沁颍

5/16/2014

U.S. stock futures (/ES) are pointing to a lower open ahead of May options expiration, as the market gets set to try to break its two day losing streak. Yesterday saw widespread selling for most of the day but stocks did rebound off of lows into the close.  Despite the sharp fall in stocks yesterday, the CBOE volatility index (VIX) finished the session up only about 8%.  The ‘Fear Gauge’ will need to break $14 on the upside if we are going to see any confirmation of any further selling. Fed Chief Yellen last night pledged to continue to support the economy and small businesses, noting that more progress was needed



Risk reversion remained the main theme overnight as global stocks jumped on board the downtrend.  After spiking higher again on Thursday, Treasuries have found some consolidation as the T-note yield is at 2.50% after failing to take out the 2.47% October lows yesterday. After Japan stocks piled on, Europe was a little calmer and U.S. equity futures are only slightly lower. Italy's MIB is even in positive territory after the rout and wild rumors yesterday of retroactive tax hikes again foreign bond holders were floated and denied in Greece and Italy. After the onslaught of mixed data yesterday, Friday brings a rather more limited fare. Today's calendar features just housing starts, expected to surge 4.7% to 990k in April. Also preliminary May consumer sentiment is expected little changed at 84.0 from April's 84.1. Fed-speak has the dovish Bullard speaking on the economy and monetary policy.



Stock Stories:

Nordstrom (JWN) – Soaring – The retailer missed slightly on Revenue but topped EPS on its quarterly earnings report last night.The company saw a slowdown in same store sales but backed previous guidance for FY14. The company’s shares are up 10% in the pre-market, which is more than triple the 3% that the option market estimated.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Housing Starts

8:55 am CT – Consumer Sentiment

10:50 am CT – Fed’s Bullard Speaks



Notable Earnings:   

Friday 5/16:

Before Market:   CSIQ, SORL

After Market:   N/A



Monday – 5/19:

Before Market:  CPB, VAL

After Market:  URBN

沁颍

May 18, 2014 Weekend Update

Even though the week got off to a good start, most major indexes ended the week flat to down somewhat. The Dow and S&P 500 closed at record highs Monday. With little indicator news for the day, upward momentum came from belief that the economy is improving and on increased M&A activity. Weaker than expected Retail Sales hit stocks on Tuesday and the sentiment turned negative. Equities declined Wednesday, led down again by small caps. Weakness was due in part to profit taking. Corporate news was not favorable on downgraded outlooks from IBM, Macy's (M), Deere (DE), and Bank of America (BAC). Stocks continued to fall Thursday as an unexpected drop in manufacturing offset lower initial jobless claims. Also, Wal-Mart shares slid and weighed on both the S&P and Dow. At week's close, equities posted moderate gains on higher than expected housing starts. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) was flat this past week while the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) was off by 0.6%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) rose 0.5% and the small caps (RUT) finished the week down by a modest 0.4%. The market-leading small caps are now down over 5% for the year while the S&P 500 is up over 1%.  



Option Volatility remained muted despite the choppy sessions for stocks this week. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) was actually down by over 3% as traders continue to ignore buying any protection.  The ‘Buy on the Dip’ mentality has weakened and the moves are not quite as quick as they were over the last year or so. This could signal a topping that many have been expecting but so far has been non-existent.This past week's economic data were mixed, still being impacted by the lagged effects of severe winter weather. Oil futures (/CL) rose moderately this past week on concerns that oil supplies from Russia may be cut back. The biggest daily swing during the week was on Tuesday. Crude rose a buck and a quarter on forecasts that crude inventories will decrease as refinery production is boosted.



Treasury rates ended the week moderately down. On Monday, yields headed in the other direction, up on belief of an improving economy. At mid-week, yields eased further amid speculation of additional monetary accommodation in Europe in June. Rates dipped mid-week despite a higher-than-expected CPI, lower jobless claims, and favorable regional manufacturing reports. The big factor was slower-than-expected first quarter GDP growth for the Euro-zone plus weak U.S. industrial production. Rates firmed into the end of the week on the housing starts news. For the week, the view increased that the Fed would not be raising policy rates by June 2015 as suggested in Fed forecasts.



There is an abbreviated list of indicators ahead of the Memorial Day weekend. Bond traders in particular will be sensitive to Wednesday's release of FOMC minutes. With Empire State and Philly Fed indexes being healthy for May, the flash PMI for manufacturing may indicate if strength is nation-wide. Single-family housing has been sluggish and this week's reading on existing home sales and new home sales could point to whether there is improvement. Finally, most analysts expect the second quarter to show stronger growth and the April leading index may provide some confirmation. Earnings season is winding down but there are a few big retail reports this week which may sway equities.


Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday:  CPB, URBN, VAL



Tuesday: ADI, AINV, CNET, CRM, DKS, HD, INTU, MDT, SPLS, TJX



Wednesday: AEO, DRYS, HRL, LOW, NTAP, PETM, SINA, TGT, TIF, TSL, WSM



Thursday:  ARO, BBY, BRCD, DLTR, GME, GPS, MRVL, ROST, SHLD, SMRT, TFM, TIVO, TTC



Friday: FL



Economic Releases (5/19-5/23):

Monday:

11:10 am CT – Fed’s Fisher Speaks

                                                                                                                                                                                

Tuesday:

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales

11:30 am CT – Fed’s Plosser Speaks

                                                                                                                                                                                                              

Wednesday:

Fed’s Yellen Speaks

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

9:00 am CT – Fed’s Dudley Speaks

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

11:50 am CT – Fed’s George Speaks

12:30 pm CT – Fed’s Kocherlkota Speaks

1:00 pm CT – FOMC minutes

                    

Thursday:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

8:45 am CT –PMI Mfg. Index -Flash

9:00 am CT – Existing Home Sales

9:00 am CT– Leading Economic Indicators

9:30 am CT– Natural Gas Inventories

10:00 am CT – KC Fed Mfg. Survey

                                                                                                                                                                                                        

Friday:

9:00 am CT – New Home Sales

沁颍

5/19/2014

U.S. stock futures (/ES) are down modestly and may be suggesting that the market will start the week quietly. Little economic data is slated to be released, but options expired on Friday, and the first day of trading following options expiration could be volatile as traders continue to adjust their positions. The market finished higher on Friday, but notched its second consecutive weekly loss. The CBOE volatility index (VIX) finished the session on Friday lower and was actually lower despite choppy markets last week.  The rallies have become shorter in duration which may mean we are setting up for a sustained downturn.



Bonds are flat this morning and are continuing to show strength.  The 10-year yield hit year lows on Thursday before jumping back above 2.5% to end the week. Stocks are likely to take their cue from the Treasury market this week. Concerns from investors over low yields are forecasting the economy is not as strong as forecasted. Higher inflation data (PPI, CPI) from last week showed a rise in inflation but the treasury market shook it off.  Asian and European markets are lower today in light trading. AT&T (T) made a bid for DirecTV (DTV) over the weekend and the Dept. of Justice filed cyber economic espionage against Chinese officials. The U.S. economic calendar is devoid of any data today and remains rather meager ahead of the Memorial Day holiday next weekend. There's really nothing of substance until Wednesday, when the Fed minutes are released.



Stock Stories:

Disney (DIS) – Gold Mouse Ears – The entertainment conglomerate is raising prices again at its California Theme parks to $150 a day for the all-inclusive ticket.  The company is looking to monetize its gate receipts from overseas as it also cut the annual pass for locals.



Major Economic Reports:

11:10 am CT – Fed’s Fisher & Williams Speak



Notable Earnings:   

Monday 5/19:

Before Market:   CPB, VAL

After Market:   URBN



Tuesday – 5/20:

Before Market:  DKS, HD, MDT, RRGB, SPLS, TJX

After Market:  ADI, INTU, CRM

沁颍

5/20/2014
U.S. stock futures (/ES) are mixed along the flat line and may again be suggesting that the market will be relatively quiet. With the news flow beginning to slow as earnings season winds down and no major economic data slated to be released, the market has been in drift mode. With the averages at such lofty levels, a consolidation phase may actually be a positive for investors. Option Volatility was flat during Monday’s session and should remain in a low range ahead on the long holiday weekend.



Stocks are very moderately firmer and yields have backed up from overnight lows after a fairly muted Treasury session. The 10-year T-note yield is at 2.54%. Europe's marginally lower and Asia gained a little overnight, though Thailand fell 1.1% after the army imposed martial law. Tuesday brings another stingy day of offerings from the U.S. economic calendar. Weekly chain store sales are on the docket today, with the ICSC-Goldman Sachs and Redbook figures due out. But that is it for the day, and Wednesday's calendar is also quite thin with only MBA mortgage applications. The one catalyst tomorrow afternoon could be the release of the latest FOMC minutes from last month’s meeting. In Fed-speak, Philly Fed hawk Plosser will discuss the economic outlook from 11:30 am CT.



Stock Stories:

Home Depot (HD) – Seasonal – The home improvement retailer posted a mixed earnings report as the company missed on top-line revenue this past quarter.  Despite the miss, HD raised its FY14 guidance. Non-weather related markets showed increased sales after a slow start.  The shares are down 1.4% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales - down 1.3% for the week

11:30 am CT – Fed’s Plosser Speaks



Notable Earnings:   

Tuesday 5/20:

Before Market:   DKS, HD, MDT, RRGB, SPLS, TJX

After Market:   ADI, INTU, CRM



Wednesday – 5/21:

Before Market:  AEO, HRL, LOW, PETM, TGT, TIF, TRL

After Market:  NTAP, SINA, SNPS, WSTL, WSM

沁颍

5/21/2014

U.S. stock futures (/ES) are suggesting a slight bounce for the broader market following yesterday’s moderate sell-off. Heavy losses were bought into the close which limited the downside damage. Once again, investors will have little news on which to focus, as the earnings season is nearing its end and little economic data is set to be released. Retail stocks continue to get hammered as sales and revenue remains weak. The weather excuse is gone and consumer spending is below what many predicted into spring. Option Volatility rose modestly on the sell-off yesterday. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is still low near $13 and may not see any sustained upside into the holiday weekend. The MBA mortgage figures were released this morning and showed a minimal gain of 0.9%. Low rates and little spring strength have done little to help the mortgage and lending markets this year.



Treasuries are to lower in tandem with a downside bias in global bond markets. Yesterday saw a wide range in Bonds as weakness early on was bought quickly on the comments from a couple of Fed members. The 10-year yield is still hovering near the 2.5% level and many expect Treasuries to drive the equity markets in the near-term. Monetary policy is the center of attention around the world today. The Bank of Japan left policy unchanged, as expected, but showed no urgency to inject additional stimulus. The Bank of England minutes were on the hawkish side as they showed some members are moving closer to voting for a rate hike. In the U.S., the FOMC Minutes and Fed-speak are the main items on the calendar. Fed Chair Yellen gives a commencement speech at NYU and Dudley, George, and Kocherlakota speak.



Stock Stories:

Target (TGT) – Off Target – The retailer posted a mixed earnings report as the company missed on EPS but beat slightly on top-line revenue this past quarter.  Target’s U.S. comparable sales decreased 0.3% in Q1, near the high end of the expected range but they lowered FY14 guidance. The shares are up slightly ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications – up 0.9% for the week

9:00 am CT – Fed’s Dudley Speaks

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

11:30 am CT - Fed’s Yellen Speaks

11:50 am CT – Fed’s George Speaks

12:30 pm CT – Fed’s Kocherlkota Speaks

1:00 pm CT – FOMC minutes



Notable Earnings:   

Wednesday 5/21:

Before Market:   AEO, HRL, LOW, PETM, TGT, TIF, TRL

After Market:   NTAP, SINA, SNPS, WSTL, WSM



Thursday – 5/22:

Before Market:  BBY, BKE, DLTR, SHLD, SMRT, TD

After Market:  ARO, BRCD, DRYS, GME, GPS, HPQ, MRVL, ROST, TIVO, YOKU, ZUMZ

沁颍

5/22/2014

U.S. stock futures (/ES) are slightly higher to flat as the market will look to build on its gains from yesterday. Yesterday saw gains across the board despite early losses out of the market-leading small caps. The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted its biggest gains in over a month as Blue Chip stocks were in demand. Investors will be watching several economic data points scheduled to be released today including the weekly jobless claims data, existing home sales data, leading economic indicators, and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index.  Option Volatility took a hit yesterday as stocks finished the session near highs for the day. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is now back below $12 but is at support as it has bounced off these levels repeatedly over the last year.



Treasuries are relatively flat after a slight sell-off yesterday which helped push U.S. equities higher. The 10-year yield gained modestly and is currently still in a tight range just above 2.53%. Overseas markets were mostly higher but China was off slightly. China’s purchasing managers' index reached a five month high of 49.7 this month and beat expectations. A purchasing managers' index for the euro-zone came in at 53.9 for May, little changed from April. The report indicated that the bloc is continuing to expand at a slow, steady pace. We should see volumes fall even further over the next two days as traders take off for the long holiday weekend, which could provide some choppy markets for investors.



Stock Stories:

Best Buy (BBY) – Unplugged –The retailer posted a mixed earnings report as the company beat on EPS but missed on top-line revenue this past quarter.  As expected, Domestic comparable sales declined 1.3%, in a context where sales in the Consumer Electronics industry continued to decline. The shares are down 4% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

8:45 am CT –PMI Mfg. Index -Flash

9:00 am CT – Existing Home Sales

9:00 am CT– Leading Economic Indicators

9:30 am CT– Natural Gas Inventories

10:00 am CT – KC Fed Mfg. Survey

3:00 pm CT – Fed’s Williams Speaks



Notable Earnings:   

Thursday 5/22:

Before Market:   BBY, BKE, DLTR, SHLD, SMRT, TD



After Market:   ARO, BRCD, DRYS, GME, GPS, HPQ, MRVL, ROST, TIVO, YOKU, ZUMZ



Friday – 5/23:

Before Market:  FL

After Market:  N/A

沁颍

Weekend Update

May 26, 2014

Last week was capped with the S&P 500 (SPX) finally clearing above the key psychological barrier of $1900 on Friday to record a fresh all-time closing high.  The broad based markets continue to recover from the early-May snafu and now show little sign of slowing down following a strong surge for much of the week off lighter volume ahead of the long holiday weekend.  The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has completely collapsed over the past several sessions before finishing the week at the 13 mo. low of $11.36.   Traders are once again discounting potential risk to chase popular momentum names higher.  The Russell 2000 Index (RUT) rebounded an impressive 2.5% during the same period after losing favor for much of the last quarter although the small cap index benchmark still remains well below all-time highs set in April.



The housing story appears more upbeat as of late with New Home Sales soundly beating estimates on Friday after two consecutive months of disappointment.  Treasury yields wrapped up trading at 2.53% after the positive housing data which was near the mid-point of its weekly yield range.  Oil futures (/CL) continue to press higher and are now approaching key resistance levels that have not been topped over the past year.  A muted geopolitical climate around the globe may eventually stall the recent run-up in price.  More consolidation has also been seen over the past few months in precious metals as Gold futures (/GC) have seen no reasonable catalyst to move pricing out of a tight range.



Although this week’s economic calendar is relatively light, a few critical data points will be watched to measure the overall health of an ongoing economic recovery.  Durable goods and Preliminary GDP numbers may likely set the tone for the remainder of the week.  Ukraine's progress will also be closely monitored following yesterday's successful election of President Poroshenko. Russian Rebels are still raising havoc in attempts to further destabilize the region.  The eventual outcome still has the potential to sour recent advancements with any significant signs of renewed escalation from Russia.  Earnings Season is almost finished with the exception of a few noteworthy tech and retail names slated to release over the next several sessions as both sectors have seen inconsistent results so far this quarter.



Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:



Monday: N/A



Tuesday: AZO, JKS, QIHU, WTSL, WDAY



Wednesday:  BWS, CHS, DAKT, DSW, PANW, PLKI, TOL



Thursday: ANF, AVGO, COST, EXPR, GES, LGF, PSUN, SPLK



Friday: BIG



Economic Releases (5/26-5/30):



Monday:



Markets Closed in Observance of Memorial Day



Tuesday:



7:30 am CT – Core Durable Goods Orders

8:00 am CT – Housing Price Index

8:30 am CT – ECB President Draghi Speaks

8:45 am CT – Flash Services PMI  

9:00 am CT – Consumer Confidence

9:00 am CT –Richmond Manufacturing Index



Wednesday:



TBD



Thursday:



7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT– Preliminary GDP

9:00 am CT– Pending Home Sales

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Storage

10:00 am CT – Crude Inventories  



Friday:



7:30 am CT – Personal Spending/Income

8:45 am CT– Chicago PMI

8:55 am CT– University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

4:00 pm CT– FOMC Member Plosser Speaks