[转贴] February 9, 2014 Weekend Update

沁颍

Last week got off to mostly negative start as a disappointing ISM manufacturing report pushed stocks down sharply on Monday.We saw an uptick in mid-week before most equities surged into the end of the day on Friday. Most major indexes ended the week up but with small caps being the exception. A weak jobs report on Friday morning could not sway the Bulls from riding stocks up into the close. Auto Sales also fell more than expected as weather and the hangover from holiday spending kept consumers from purchases. The weak data is being blamed on the weather but it does not detract from the fact that consumer spending and job growth is under pressure. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) rose 0.8% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) gained 0.6% for the week. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) increased by a mere 0.5% but the small cap Russell 2000 Index (RUT) fell 1.3%. The small caps typically lead general stock direction so we will look to next week to see if the rally holds.



Volatility fell sharply into the end of the week as equities shot higher into Friday’s close. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) lost 17% for the week but was off 28% from Monday’s closing high. The ‘Fear Gauge’ rose to its highest level since last June on Monday but gave all of its gains back and more as stocks rose.  The fundamental reasons behind the recent weakness in stocks have not dissipated so we would expect to see volatility remain on edge. The Fed comments this past week from several key members gave no indication that the ‘Taper’ program will be pushed back or halted and data is weakening.



Treasury yields rose minimally this week as the risk-on trade was back in favor by the latter part of the week.  The benchmark 10-year yield finished the week at the 2.67% level as Treasuries have seen continued in-flows. Although many we expecting yields to rise as economic data improved into the end of 2013, we are seeing a reversal as investors are pouring back into the safety of Treasuries. Oil Futures (/CL) increased this past week as demand strengthened.  The surge was due to increases in prices for heating oil and gasoline. Prices also gained lift from atypically cold weather and also a dip in the unemployment rate.



There is a modest amount of data on the calendar this week and it will include plenty of Fed-Speak. Reports on Business Inventories and Consumer Sentiment will lead this week. Also, Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen will give her first semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress, first to the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday, and then to the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday.Traders will also watch the euro-zone and its constituent parts report fourth quarter economic growth numbers at the end of the week, offering policy makers at the European Central Bank a needed snapshot of the bloc's underlying strength. The ECB sat on its hands last week but gave a fairly clear indication that action could be taken next month. Earnings also continue this week and are headlined by reports from bellwethers Cisco (CSCO), John Deere (DE) and Whole Foods (WFM).





Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday:  HAS, L, MAS, RICK



Tuesday: CVS, DF, HCP, JUN, MOS, RAI, S, TRIP, WU



Wednesday: CAKE, CSCO, DE, DPS, LO, MET, MDLZ, NTAP, WFM



Thursday:  AIG, APA, AVP, ABX, CLF, GG, HOT, PEP, TAP



Friday:  CPB, SJM, VFC



Economic Releases (2/10-2/14):

Monday:

11:30 am CT – TD AMERITRADE IMX

                                                                                                                                                                                

Tuesday:

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales

7:30 am CT – Fed’s Yellen Speaks

8:00 am CT – Fed’s Plosser Speaks

9:00 am CT – JOLTS

9:00 am CT – Fed’s Yellen Speaks

9:00 am CT – Wholesale Trade

12:00 pm CT – 3-year Note Auction Results

7:00 pm CT – Fed’s Lacker Speaks

7:10 pm CT – Fed’s Fisher Speaks

                                                                                                                                                                                                              

Wednesday:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

7:35 am CT – Fed’s Bullard Speaks

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 10-year Note Auction Results

1:00 pm CT – Treasury Budget

                     

Thursday:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT– Retail Sales

9:00 am CT – Business Inventories

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories

9:30 am CT – Fed’s Yellen Speaks

12:00 pm CT – 30-year Bond Auction Results

                                                                                                                                                                                                        

Friday:

7:30 am CT- Import & Export Prices

8:15 am CT- Industrial Production

8:55 am CT– Consumer Sentiment

aimei

thanks millions

黄金奇异果

祥云