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Employment Situation
Released On 9/7/2012 8:30:00 AM For Aug, 2012  
Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual
Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change 163,000  141,000  125,000  70,000  to 177,000  96,000  
Unemployment Rate - Level 8.3 %  8.3 % 8.2 % to 8.4 % 8.1 %
Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.2 % 0.1 % to 0.3 % 0.0 %
Av Workweek - All Employees 34.5 hrs 34.4 hrs 34.5 hrs 34.5 hrs to 34.5 hrs 34.4 hrs
Private Payrolls - M/M change 172,000  162,000  134,000  80,000  to 177,000  103,000  


Highlights
The odds of some kind of Fed easing at the September FOMC just went up as the employment situation for August was not pretty. Payroll jobs were anemic even though the unemployment rate dipped. The unemployment rate slipped to 8.1 percent from 8.3 percent in July due to a sharp drop in the labor force. Payroll jobs in August advanced a mere 96,000, following gains of 141,000 in July (originally 163,000) and 45,000 in June (previous estimate of 64,000). The net revisions for June and July were down 41,000. Analysts projected a 125,000 gain for August.

Private payrolls increased 103,000 in August after gaining 162,000 the prior month. The consensus called for a 134,000 boost.

Private service-providing jobs rose 119,000 in August after a 139,000 increase the prior month. In August, notable gains were in food services and drinking places (up 28,000), in professional and technical services (up 27,000), and in health care (up 17,000).

The public sector contracted but at a slower pace. Government jobs fell 7,000 in August, compared to a 21,000 drop in July.

Turning to wage inflation, average hourly earnings were flat after a 0.1 percent rise in July. Expectations were for a 0.2 percent rise. The average workweek was unchanged at 34.4 hours. Expectations were for 34.5 hours.

Today's report is very disappointing. Equities dipped on the news but generally remained positive on favorable news from Europe. German industrial production unexpectedly posted a gain in July and British industrial output gained significantly more than forecast. Also, the weak U.S. report boosted hopes of further ease by the Fed.



Market Consensus before announcement
Nonfarm payroll employment in July increased 163,000, following gains of 64,000 in June and 87,000 in May. Private payrolls rose 172,000 in July after advancing 73,000 the month before. Analysts forecast a 110,000 boost. Both goods-producing and service-providing sectors improved moderately. The public sector contracted again but at a more modest pace than months ago. Government jobs fell 9,000 in July, the same as in June. Average hourly earnings growth slowed to 0.1 percent in July from 0.3 percent the prior month. The average workweek held steady at 34.5 hours, matching expectations. The unemployment rate rose to 8.3 percent from 8.2 percent in June.

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大家早上好！

这几天我上班忙，不敢上网。今天可以多灌点水补偿。

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昨天的ADP数据是个JOKE。让大家误以为今天的NFP数据非常好。

ADP Employment Report
Released On 9/6/2012 8:15:00 AM For Aug, 2012  
Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual
ADP employment 163,000  173,000  149,000  90,000  to 165,000  201,000  


Highlights
Seeing strength for tomorrow's employment report, ADP estimates private payrolls in August will rise 201,000. This is well above the high end of expectations at 165,000 and also well above ADP's revised level for July of 173,000. Stock futures are moving higher in immediate reaction to this report.

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Monster Employment Index
Released On 9/7/2012 For Aug, 2012  
Prior Actual
Monster Employment Index 147  156  


Highlights
The Monster employment index rose 9 points in August to 156. Online recruitment is heaviest for agriculture-related jobs and for transportation & warehousing. On the negative side are public administration and educational services.

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看来华尔街目前是把目光重点放在欧洲，而不是美国自身。

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According to our analytics team, our indicators had foretold the rally would begin yesterday and their movements are consistent with the rally continuing with more shallow-dips and stronger-surges along the way up. The DJIA can climb to 13,500 before serious overhead resistance will be encountered, the S&P500 index to 1,450.

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Yesterday ECB President Draghi delivered on his promise to take whatever steps were needed to save the euro. Grabbing fewer headlines, the China Daily reported on Beijing’s plan for twenty-five new rail projects, an economic booster totaling $157 billion over the next three to eight years. Across the pond, Fed Chairman Bernanke has made it somewhat clear that he has both the means and the will to take extraordinary monetary action to assist struggling employment numbers in this country. However, whether such action is needed remains a seminal question. On Thursday data showed a greater-than-expected rise in US private sector employment as employers added to their workforces at the fastest pace in five months, a jump in the ISM’s non-manufacturing employment index, and a drop in weekly jobless filings to their lowest level in a month. US futures are trading higher this morning with the NASDAQ and S&P500 up 0.4% as of this writing and the DJIA up 0.2%.

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Thursday’s macro posts showed private sector employment up 201K in August according to ADP, the largest climb in five months, compared to July’s upward-revised 173K (revised from 163K), and above forecasts of a 143K advance. The advance in ADP’s reported new hirings came from small businesses and service providers.

Weekly jobless claims fell 12K to a less-than-expected 365K for the week ending September 1, from 377 the previous week, well below estimates of 375K.

Outplacement firm Challenger Gray reported 32,239 job cuts planned in August, less than July’s 36,855.

The ISM non-manufacturing index revealed a surprise increase to 53.7 in August from July’s 52.6, up from forecasts of a decline to 53.0. Of Fed-watching significance, the employment index rose 4.5 points to 53.8; business activity/production fell 1.6 points to 55.6.

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Today’s data brings the market-moving, nonfarm payroll number, one that President Obama knew the results of before taking the podium last night, and one that Fed members will weigh heavily before making next week’s decision on whether or not to set loose another round of quantitative easing. Yesterday’s jobs data caused a flurry of NFP fine-tuning, leaving a preponderance of forecasts for the preopen August employment number at 125-130K job additions versus earlier forecasts of 120K. The unemployment rate, however, is expected to remain steady at 8.3%, higher than 8% for the 43rd straight month, and still worthy of Bernanke’s “grave concern.”

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So far this morning the risk appetites remain whetted. As a usual sign of heighted risk appetites, the US dollar has fallen, currently trading down 0.3% at 80.896. Demonstrating investors’ sense that President Draghi’s “outright monetary transaction” (OMT) scheme will indeed prove a game-changer of eurozone fortunes, the euro has extended Thursday’s rally, trading up 0.4% to 1.2684 against the US dollar today.

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Asian markets closed sharply higher, lifted by news of China’s plans for infrastructure spending. Leading the region’s gains, China’s Shanghai Composite closed 3.7% higher today, for a 3.9% weekly advance. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was not far behind, surging 3.1%. Japan’s Nikkei gained 2.2%; South Korea’s Kospi rose 2.6%; Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.4%. On the back China’s infrastructure plans, copper prices have surged 1.7%.

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European bourses are trading higher as well, extending yesterday’s Draghi drive. France’s CAC is leading with 1.2% gains, while Germany’s DAX is up 0.8% and the UK FTSE 100 is up 0.2%. Among the troubled peripherals, Italy’s FTSE MIB is 2.1% higher, Athens’ AEX is up 1.6%, while Spain’s IBEX 35 trades 0.9% higher. Spanish 10-years are showing the effect of Draghi’s bond-buying plan, with yields below 5.8% for the first time in four months. Worries surrounding the plan continue to be voiced, however, including: will the conditions prove too dire for Spain or Italy to accept? And will they request aid at all? Will Germany’s legal system acquiesce? Yet, for the moment the consensus has accepted OMT as a valuable tool for preserving the integrity of the single-currency union, realizing further unifying steps need to be undertaken.

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On Thursday the DJIA climbed 245 points, for a 1.9% rally to 13,292, its highest since December 2007. The S&P500 advanced 2% for a 1432 close, its highest since January 2008. The NASDAQ surged 2.2% for a 3136 finish, its highest in over a decade. NYSE trading volume picked up to 3.93 billion shares as advancers handily outdistanced declining shares by a four to one margin. The CBOE Vix, “fear factor” index slumped 12% to 15.61.

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All thirty of the DJIA components ended with gains. Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) led, up 5.0% as strength among leading banks also lifted JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM) shares, up 4.3%. Cisco (NYSE:CSCO) enjoyed strength among technology sector shares and rallied 4.4%, with Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), 3.1% higher.