Diver

日内指标更新：

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Diver

ISM Mfg Index
Released On 9/4/2012 10:00:00 AM For Aug, 2012  
Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
ISM Mfg Index - Level 49.8  50.0  49.5  to 50.5  49.6  


Highlights
The outlook for the nation's manufacturing sector is increasingly going into reverse based on the ISM's report where new orders, at a sub-50 level of 47.1 in August, show their third straight monthly contraction and at the deepest rate since April 2009. New export orders are definitely part of the problem, at 47.0 for what is also the third straight month of contraction. Manufacturers, as they wait for new orders to return, are increasingly drawing down their backlogs which are at 42.5 for the fifth straight month of contraction.

The lack of new orders is finally starting to hit production which fell a very steep 4.1 points in the month to 47.2 which is the first sub-50 reading since May 2009. Another sign of weakness is the first build in inventories since September 2011 which hints that the slowing is greater than manufacturers were expecting. Import orders are also down while delivery times continue to shorten, both of which are signs of weakness. Input prices rose in the month likely reflecting increases for energy.

One plus is continued gains for employment which however are the slowest in 3 years and won't last if orders don't pop up soon. The Dow is falling to opening lows in immediate reaction to this report as well as to a surprise contraction in construction spending.

Diver

Construction Spending
Released On 9/4/2012 10:00:00 AM For Jul, 2012  
Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual
Construction Spending - M/M change 0.4 %  0.4 % -0.3 % to 0.6 % -0.9 %
Construction Spending - Y/Y change 7.0 % 7.0 %   9.3 %


Highlights
Construction spending was unexpectedly weak in July and broad based. But there were some positive signs in the detail. Construction spending fell back 0.9 percent in July, following a 0.4 percent gain in June (originally up 0.4 percent) and 1.7 percent boost in May. Analysts projected a 0.4 percent increase for July.

The drop in July was led by private residential outlays which declined 1.6 percent after a 2.4 percent boost in June. But private residential was led down by spending on existing structures which plunged 5.5 percent, following gains of 1.4 percent in June and 4.6 percent in May. New one-family structures actually rose 1.5 percent, following a 3.1 percent boost the prior month. New multifamily structures advanced 2.8 percent after a 3.5 percent increase in June. So, the recent uptrend in housing starts was not misleading. Spending on new private residential structures continues to improve.

Turning to other sectors, private nonresidential outlays declined 0.9 percent percent in July, following a 0.9 percent drop in June. Public outlays decreased 0.4 percent after no change in June.

On a year-ago basis, overall construction stood posted at 9.3 percent in July, compared to 7.0 percent the month before.

Today's report appears quite negative at the headline level. And private nonresidential spending and public outlays clearly are on soft trends. But private residential spending still is on an underlying uptrend once the volatile subcomponent on spending on existing structures is excluded.

Diver

PMI Manufacturing Index
Released On 9/4/2012 9:00:00 AM For Aug, 2012  
Prior Actual
Level 51.4  51.5  


Highlights
The final manufacturing PMI from Markit Economics is revised 4 tenths lower from the flash estimate to a 51.5 level that indicates modest monthly growth in business activity at just about the same level of growth as July's 51.4 reading. But unfortunately, the downward revision to the final reading in August is centered in new orders which are at a final 51.9 which is 7 tenths slower than the flash reading. New orders for this report are showing the slowest rate of monthly growth of the recovery.

Output is also downwardly revised, to 51.9 which is 5 tenths slower than the flash reading. Other readings show little change from the flash estimates with backlog orders up to end two months of contraction but with new export orders showing a third straight month of contraction though only slight contraction. Employment growth is holding steady at a moderate rate while inventories, both for raw materials and for finished goods, are showing very slight monthly draws. Both input and output prices are little changed as are delivery times.

This report has been a little less weak than the rival ISM manufacturing report which will be released later this morning at 10:00 a.m. ET. In any case, both reports failed to pickup what turned out to be a very strong July for the factory sector based on last week's factory orders report from the government.

Diver

ZT from Pro：

August Gains Pave the Way For???

Stocks were up +2% in August and still within striking distance of the highs. Plus volatility is extremely low given that we played in such a tight range (1354 to 1426....but most of the time in a narrower band from 1400 to 1426).

The bears say that the market is not properly discounting all the negatives like Europe, China and Fiscal Cliff.

The bulls say that all of this stuff will be effectively cleared up making way for stocks to sprint to 1500.

Yes, one or the other could be right. But often times it's the middle case that wins out when you have such firmly entrenched players. That would likely mean that we have more range bound activity in September. Yet as pointed out last time, I think that range will widen a bit to the 50 day moving average on the low side [1375] and 1450'ish on the high side.

Diver

SPX1400成为新的阻力啦！

Diver

昨晚生病了。睡了一觉，今天好了。
CoolMax 发表于 2012-9-4 12:49

    老大多保重！

Diver

对不起，接下来两个星期，我没有时间多灌水了，只可能每天早上开盘前后来一下。请各位多多关照。

Diver

My PC was frozen until now.

Diver

WOW, up so much now!

Diver

牛牛真是（金契）而不舍啊！支持一下！

Diver

今天靠猛来苹果来托住大盘指数了。

Diver

日内指标更新：

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。。。

Diver

我的系统指标里有许多日线趋势指标都转向了。今天早上已经更新提示了。

Diver

目前有小小的背弛。看看能不能维持到收盘。