Diver

Personal Income and Outlays
Released On 8/30/2012 8:30:00 AM For Jul, 2012  
Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual
Personal Income - M/M change 0.5 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.2 % to 0.4 % 0.3 %
Consumer Spending - M/M change 0.0 %  0.4 % 0.2 % to 0.6 % 0.4 %
PCE Price Index -- M/M change 0.1 %  0.1 % 0.0 % to 0.3 % 0.0 %
Core PCE price index - M/M change 0.2 %  0.1 % 0.1 % to 0.2 % 0.0 %
PCE Price Index -- Y/Y change 1.5 %    1.3 %
Core PCE price index - Yr/Yr change 1.8 %    1.6 %


Highlights
It was a relatively good month for the consumer. Income and spending were up and inflation was flat. Personal income in July advanced 0.3 percent, matching the revised boost the prior month (initially estimated up 0.5 percent). The latest number matched the consensus projection for a 0.3 percent rise. The wages & salaries component, however, eased to a 0.2 percent rise from 0.4 percent in June.

The consumer made a comeback in July in the retail sector. Consumer spending increased 0.4 percent in June, following no change in June. Analysts forecast a 0.4 percent boost in July spending. Expenditure gains were broad based. By components, durables jumped 1.1 percent after a 0.4 percent rise the prior month. Nondurables rebounded 0.5 percent, following a 0.5 percent drop in June. Services improved to a 0.3 percent rise after a 0.2 percent gain the month before.

Turning to inflation, weak energy costs (at least in July) weighed on headline inflation which was unchanged, following a 0.1 percent uptick in June. The consensus called for a 0.1 percent increase. The core rate also was flat in July, following a 0.2 percent boost in June. The median market forecast was for a 0.1 percent rise.

Year-on-year, headline prices were up 1.3 percent, compared to 1.5 percent in June. The core was up 1.6 percent in July, following 1.8 percent the month before.

The consumer sector improved moderately at all levels in July-for income, spending and inflation. This is somewhat good news for the recovery. However, it is mixed news for the next key issue for traders-what is the Fed going to do at its September FOMC meeting. Low inflation gives the Fed flexibility, but stronger income and spending argue that additional easing is not yet needed. This week's focus is still Fed Chairman Bernanke's speech at the Kansas City Fed's symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming tomorrow morning. But for the Fed's next move, the real news will be the next employment situation report.

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According to the Fed’s Beige Book of anecdotal economic activity in the US, “most districts indicated retail activity, including auto sales, had increased since the last Beige Book report.” Residential and commercial real estate market reports were also positive, although manufacturing activity showed signs of weakness. Core inflation expectations were tame. In short, the economy expanded gradually in July, undermining Bernanke’s asserted need for further signs of economic softness before further actions would be taken.

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Thursday’s economic reports showed an upward revision to the second quarter GDP estimate, a strong post on pending home sales for July, and a more positive tone to the Fed’s own Beige Book. Second quarter GDP was revised upward from the initial estimate of 1.5% to 1.7%, inline with expectations. However, the current estimate remains below the first quarter’s 2% growth and well beneath the fourth quarter’s 4%. The recovery, while clawing its way up from the Spring’s soft patch, still is not operating on all cylinders for a nation whose medium growth potential is viewed as more in the order of 2.3%. The housing data gave further evidence that the housing recovery is underway. US pending home sales climbed 2.4% in July, the greatest increase in over two years.

cellphone

有谁知道大本讲话什么时候 release ? Tomorrow ?

Diver

The euro, if used as a confidence barometer, suggests investors have grown confident that ECB President Draghi will make good on his promises to “do whatever it takes” to resolve the ECB debt crisis, leaving markets hopeful of decisive policy plans to be announced after next Thursday’s ECB meeting. The euro is trading 0.1% higher in electronic trade this morning at 1.2543, holding near a seven-week high of 1.2590 set on August 23. The dollar is off 0.1% at 81.50 as investors remain sanguine that Fed easing plans are not yet complete, even though Mr. Bernanke may need to bring up considerations of Americans’ ongoing struggles, despite rising metrics, with unemployment stubbornly high and financial conditions difficult, along with the uncertainties of the eurozone crisis on US corporations’ export demand.

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China’s Shanghai Composite was only fractionally lower, down 0.03%, where the index hovers at 4-year lows, impacted by weakness in property shares. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.2% along with South Korea’s Kospi. Japan’s Nikkei fell 1% and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 dropped 0.9% as resource shares weighed on the index. Iron ore prices fell to their lowest in almost three years in China, sending shares of BHP Billiton (NYSE:BHP) and Rio Tinto (NYSE:RTP) sharply lower. Headline coverage of talks between German Chancellor Merkel and China Premier Wen Jiaboa revealed a pledge from China to buy more EU sovereigns; however, previously noted calls for conditions were again repeated.

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US futures are trading lower this morning, with the S&P500 and NASDAQ off 0.4% and the DJIA down 0.2%. Asian markets closed off, and European bourses are down, with global growth worries dominating investors’ concerns. Italy got off its sale of 5- and 10-years, selling E7.393 billion paper near the top end of the target range. However, global data remained weak. A measure of South Korean manufacturers’ confidence approached its lowest level since 2009. Japan’s retail sales fell 0.8% from a year ago, missing forecasts of a 0.1% decline. German unemployment moved higher for the fifth month in August, up 9K to 2.901 million, versus estimates of 8K additions.

cellphone

Diver

The August doldrums continued yesterday as trading reflected a stasis of statistical analysis as investors evaluated incoming economic data for their impact on the Fed’s quantitative easing intentions, leaving strategists convinced that the best stratagem of all may be to head off early for the long holiday weekend. The impasse between the ECB and the Bundesbank keeps traders guessing about ECB bond-buying plans as well, even as investors are hopeful that a definitive response to the region’s sovereign debt crisis may be unveiled after next Thursday’s policy meeting. Economies beyond US borders raise growth worries, but US data continues to impress.

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cellphone 发表于 2012-8-30 14:11

    谢谢。

Diver

SPX1400这个支撑不是一般地强啊！

西门吹雪

cellphone

SPX1400这个支撑不是一般地强啊！
Diver 发表于 2012-8-30 14:29

   要么是铁板，要么被跌穿成为铁顶。。。

Diver

老秋师傅家的1400地板真是坚硬，俺费了九牛二虎之力才凿穿了两个洞，还没有走到地下室去。

hq1888

据CNBC说 很多not expect QE3 tomorrow, just repeat old words.