ychen222

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/bevan011511.html

Warren Bevan认为SP500在1300大概要回调，最终1420会到达。
上周五SP500收在1293。

ychen222

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/2326590.html
http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/2326594.html

可见大机构大资金动作难度大。

ychen222

http://stockcharts.com/def/servl ... rvlet?obj=ID2287993

以前听捣乱者说NASDAQ的13天线重要，最近才开始注意，发现最近几次的确是关键位置。

ychen222

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/connor011811.html

municipal and state bond触发下一轮危机？不过其直接影响可能是使FED保持低利率，未必对股市不好。

何鸿燊

64# ychen222


Muni ETF的图形难看， 但美国市政还有转圜空间。唯一的就是加税，裁员会降低经济复苏的速度，失业率会长期低迷。

ychen222

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/ciovacco011411.html

“In the cases studied, the two occurrences in 2007 are probably the least similar to the present day in terms of other factors, such as interest rate and market cycles. The cases in 2003 and 2009 are also not that similar to the present day since they occurred in the first year of new bull markets. The 2004 case, while far from a good match, aligns best with current circumstances. In 2004 after the Investors Intelligence Advisory Sentiment Bull/Bear Ratio hit 3.00, stocks basically tread water for three months, then experienced a decent pullback. From a risk-reward perspective, stocks were barely higher six months later.”

2004年初，NASDAQ从周图的BB（20，2）上轨回调到下轨，月图里从BB（20，2）上轨回调到MA（20）。
若现在跟2004走法一样，NASDAQ将会跌到周图BB（20，2）下轨2260，月图MA（20）的2255。