tfmegatron

所以，如果今天再次守住1400区域，俺不会觉得奇怪
cellphone 发表于 2012-9-4 10:43

恶狠狠的撂下一句，做人要做的恶(TM)，给俄砸，把牛牛三明治先，包牛牛饺子，吼吼！

hq1888

下的太猛, 破不了.  盘1小时, 可能再破.

Diver

ISM Mfg Index
Released On 9/4/2012 10:00:00 AM For Aug, 2012  
Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
ISM Mfg Index - Level 49.8  50.0  49.5  to 50.5  49.6  


Highlights
The outlook for the nation's manufacturing sector is increasingly going into reverse based on the ISM's report where new orders, at a sub-50 level of 47.1 in August, show their third straight monthly contraction and at the deepest rate since April 2009. New export orders are definitely part of the problem, at 47.0 for what is also the third straight month of contraction. Manufacturers, as they wait for new orders to return, are increasingly drawing down their backlogs which are at 42.5 for the fifth straight month of contraction.

The lack of new orders is finally starting to hit production which fell a very steep 4.1 points in the month to 47.2 which is the first sub-50 reading since May 2009. Another sign of weakness is the first build in inventories since September 2011 which hints that the slowing is greater than manufacturers were expecting. Import orders are also down while delivery times continue to shorten, both of which are signs of weakness. Input prices rose in the month likely reflecting increases for energy.

One plus is continued gains for employment which however are the slowest in 3 years and won't last if orders don't pop up soon. The Dow is falling to opening lows in immediate reaction to this report as well as to a surprise contraction in construction spending.

Diver

Construction Spending
Released On 9/4/2012 10:00:00 AM For Jul, 2012  
Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual
Construction Spending - M/M change 0.4 %  0.4 % -0.3 % to 0.6 % -0.9 %
Construction Spending - Y/Y change 7.0 % 7.0 %   9.3 %


Highlights
Construction spending was unexpectedly weak in July and broad based. But there were some positive signs in the detail. Construction spending fell back 0.9 percent in July, following a 0.4 percent gain in June (originally up 0.4 percent) and 1.7 percent boost in May. Analysts projected a 0.4 percent increase for July.

The drop in July was led by private residential outlays which declined 1.6 percent after a 2.4 percent boost in June. But private residential was led down by spending on existing structures which plunged 5.5 percent, following gains of 1.4 percent in June and 4.6 percent in May. New one-family structures actually rose 1.5 percent, following a 3.1 percent boost the prior month. New multifamily structures advanced 2.8 percent after a 3.5 percent increase in June. So, the recent uptrend in housing starts was not misleading. Spending on new private residential structures continues to improve.

Turning to other sectors, private nonresidential outlays declined 0.9 percent percent in July, following a 0.9 percent drop in June. Public outlays decreased 0.4 percent after no change in June.

On a year-ago basis, overall construction stood posted at 9.3 percent in July, compared to 7.0 percent the month before.

Today's report appears quite negative at the headline level. And private nonresidential spending and public outlays clearly are on soft trends. But private residential spending still is on an underlying uptrend once the volatile subcomponent on spending on existing structures is excluded.

Diver

PMI Manufacturing Index
Released On 9/4/2012 9:00:00 AM For Aug, 2012  
Prior Actual
Level 51.4  51.5  


Highlights
The final manufacturing PMI from Markit Economics is revised 4 tenths lower from the flash estimate to a 51.5 level that indicates modest monthly growth in business activity at just about the same level of growth as July's 51.4 reading. But unfortunately, the downward revision to the final reading in August is centered in new orders which are at a final 51.9 which is 7 tenths slower than the flash reading. New orders for this report are showing the slowest rate of monthly growth of the recovery.

Output is also downwardly revised, to 51.9 which is 5 tenths slower than the flash reading. Other readings show little change from the flash estimates with backlog orders up to end two months of contraction but with new export orders showing a third straight month of contraction though only slight contraction. Employment growth is holding steady at a moderate rate while inventories, both for raw materials and for finished goods, are showing very slight monthly draws. Both input and output prices are little changed as are delivery times.

This report has been a little less weak than the rival ISM manufacturing report which will be released later this morning at 10:00 a.m. ET. In any case, both reports failed to pickup what turned out to be a very strong July for the factory sector based on last week's factory orders report from the government.

cellphone

早盘：制造业萎缩美股跌幅扩大
http://www.sina.com.cn  2012年09月04日 22:24  新浪财经微博

查看最新行情
　　新浪财经讯 北京时间9月4日晚间消息，美国股市早盘跌幅扩大。ISM制造业指数(907.858,-8.57,-0.93%)不及预期，且表明制造业萎缩。投资者等待本周后期的欧央行政策制定会议与美国8月非农就业数据。

　　美东时间9月4日10:22(北京时间9月4日22:22)，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌74.69点，报13,016.15点，跌幅为0.57%；纳斯达克(微博)综合指数下跌12.75点，报3,054.21点，跌幅为0.42%；标准普尔500指数下跌6.51点，报1,400.07点，跌幅为0.46%。

　　周五美国股市周五收高，至此大盘连续第三个月收阳。市场预期美联储可能推出新一轮量化宽松政策、欧洲将采取政策行动来解决债务危机问题。伯南克周五发表了备受市场关注的讲话，他在讲话中重申央行将在必要时采取行动，但未给出很快采取行动的暗示。在伯南克讲话两周之后，联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)将召开会议。

　　周一美国股市因劳工节休市。

　　美东时间周二上午10点(北京时间今晚10点)，美国供应管理协会宣布8月制造业指数为47.1%，低于市场预期。接受MarketWatch调查的经济学家预测该指数将由7月的49.8%升至50.2%。指数低于50%意味着活动萎缩，超过50%意味着扩张。

　　7月营建开支下跌0.9%。

　　欧洲央行政策会议将于周四举行。投资者期待德拉吉会公布购买主权国债的细节情况，他在上个月提议购买国债。

　　周二欧洲股市承压。泛欧道琼斯斯托克600指数下跌0.5%，此前评级机构穆迪警告称可能丧失Aaa债务评级。

　　周二亚洲股市收跌，投资者关注欧元区的困局。

　　Smithfield Foods(SFD)周二表示，受到旗下新鲜猪肉部门业绩下滑以及成本攀升的影响，第一财季盈利下跌25%。

　　Nymex原油期货价格上涨93美分，报每桶95.55美元。黄金期货价格上涨42美元，报每盎司1699美元。(张俊)

chameleon

ruoli

shatianyou

cellphone

个人预期当SPX跌到1396或以下，很多FUNDS 的 model 会转为 automatical sell 。

cellphone

大盘目前借苹果拉抬股指，在1400以下一点防守。。。

俺估计STOP大部分在1400下面5点的位置。因此，空方只有击破1396~1395，才能触发止损盘

cellphone

熊旗？？？

cellphone

TLT 继续强势。。。资本市场仍然忽略股市。。。

tfmegatron

今天收day low，哪将是对高傲的牛牛最最沉重之打击，吼吼！

Diver

ZT from Pro：

August Gains Pave the Way For???

Stocks were up +2% in August and still within striking distance of the highs. Plus volatility is extremely low given that we played in such a tight range (1354 to 1426....but most of the time in a narrower band from 1400 to 1426).

The bears say that the market is not properly discounting all the negatives like Europe, China and Fiscal Cliff.

The bulls say that all of this stuff will be effectively cleared up making way for stocks to sprint to 1500.

Yes, one or the other could be right. But often times it's the middle case that wins out when you have such firmly entrenched players. That would likely mean that we have more range bound activity in September. Yet as pointed out last time, I think that range will widen a bit to the 50 day moving average on the low side [1375] and 1450'ish on the high side.