[原创] 股市怎么看？

not4weak

过去的一周比较邪恶，一波接着一波，每天暴跌1000点以上，那个大嘴川吹牛逼的股市已经现了原型

not4weak

The first scenario: Things get better by March, production is restarted in China, and the disruption is contained to the first quarter. In this scenario, U.S. economic growth dips to 2.5% in the first half of the year but picks up, the research analysts wrote.

not4weak

The second scenario? Escalation and more disruption in the second quarter. In this case, the virus peaks in May, growth in the first half of 2020 goes to 2.4% – the weakest since the financial crisis – and third quarter sees things picking back up.

not4weak

The worst and third scenario: The virus persists into the Q3. This scenario, analysts wrote, would escalate the risk of a recession. It would affect all large economies. Corporate profits get hit hard and credit risk for corporations spikes. In Europe, scenario 3 would cause an “outright recession,” according to the analysts. China would see growth of 6.1% in Q1 and the U.S. would have a “soft pickup.”

In the U.S., there would also be a temporary rise in unemployment of almost 200 basis points, or 2 percentage points. The Fed would keep cutting rates, and aggressively in 0.5 percentage point increments.

For this scenario, no medical solution would be in place yet, though there’s currently a drug in trials from Gilead (GILD) that could stop transmissions.

mermaidyu

我觉得不会有worst scenario, 因为这个病毒虽然传染的挺快但死亡率不高，很多免疫系统不错的人甚至没有症状。我觉得疫苗很快会出来的。

yahui315

疫苗我觉得很难吧，现在基本都是靠自身体抗力，新出来的病毒，不可能疫苗立刻出来

nobo

牛市死就死呗，怎么搞到股民也有人身危险啊？越老的股民越容易死啊。

小昭mm

小波 好久不见 你好吗

回复 7# nobo

nobo

回复 8# 小昭mm

小昭妹妹，好久不见。我挺好的。股灾病毒肆虐时期，多保重啊。
P.S. 我的体育馆昨天关门了，好像只能保“重”了。

小昭mm

多做家务同样效果

回复 9# nobo

nobo

回复 10# 小昭mm

小昭mm

牛市抄底死 做鬼也风流 小波 你说呢


回复 7# nobo

nobo

回复 12# 小昭mm

想法太危险。尤其在即使赚到钱人却可能没了的情况下。

小昭mm

死猪不怕开水烫

回复 13# nobo

nobo

回复 14# 小昭mm