5# naivecruel
Good book!
I quote some here:
Just about every trading book or course will emphasize that you always want to
“trade with the trend.” It’s great advice. If you are always trading with the trend,
you should mount up some very impressive gains.
Two big questions are usually not clearly answered: “How do you objectively identify
trend direction?” and “Is the trend in the early or late stages?”
In almost every trading book and course I’ve seen over the past 20 or more years,
the trading educators show many after-the-fact examples of how their trend indicator
identified the trend direction long after the trend was established. It is easy to show
a trend on any chart long after the trend is established. But how do we identify trend
direction in the early stages? How do we identify when an established trend is in the
later stages and in a position to make a trend reversal? Without some approach to help
identify where within the trend the market likely is, typical trend analysis will usually be
too early or too late to be useful over time.
It is easy to fill a book with after-the-fact examples of trends. Trendlines, moving averages,
channels, momentum indicators, and many other techniques can show the trend
on historic data. Unfortunately, none of these techniques can reliably alert you to the
beginning stages of a new trend or whether a trend is in its final stages. They can only
identify an established trend, usually long after the trend is established and the optimum
entry is long over. |
发表于 2010-9-5 13:25
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发表于 2010-9-6 01:08
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发表于 2010-9-5 21:07
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