[基础分析] IBM Beats, Down in After Market

何鸿燊

IBM Corp. (NYSE: IBM - News) posted a positive earnings report after the bell Tuesday. For the company's 4th quarter of 2009, its $3.59 per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.47 by 12 cents, and was up 10% year over year.

Quarterly revenue of $27.2 billion was essentially flat from the year-earlier level (up 0.8%), but down 5% if we exclude the impact of exchange rates. Quarterly gross margin of 48.3% was up from 47.9% from the year-earlier period.

For the full-year 2009, earnings of $10.01 per share were up 13% year over year, and net income of $13.4 billion rose 9% from fiscal year 2008 totals. Both figures also happen to be record numbers for IBM. For fiscal year 2010, the company now expects earnings of at least $11 per share, up from a previously expected $10-11 per share range.

Analysts covering IBM had been standing pat in their earnings estimates over the past month. There had been no movement either way in earnings estimate revisions from any of the 19 analysts covering the company.

It is not particularly surprising to see IBM beat estimates; the company has averaged a 6+% positive earnings surprise over the previous 4 quarters. IBM shares before the bell had been up 1.76% on an up-day overall in the market. But since the earnings announcement, shares have given back all of today's gains and then some.

We will go into more detail about the market's reaction to these numbers tomorrow, as well as more in-depth analysis on the numbers themselves.


INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHS (IBM): Read the Full Research Report

何鸿燊

Profits soared, revenue climbed and just about every other metric used to measure Google seemed strong in the company's fourth quarter.

But when expectations reach fever pitch, whether realistic or not, heaven help the company that just doesn't measure up.

Google [GOOG  582.98    2.57  (+0.44%)   ] didn't measure up.

The company reported $6.79 a share in earnings and $4.95 billion net revenue. And while the Street's earnings expectations are a distant image in the rear view mirror, that topline number was essentially in line, and therefore simply not good enough. Says Sameet Sinha at JMP Securities: "…Top-line fell slightly below expectations. I think that is because costs per click was up about 2 percent sequentially and we had been expecting closer to 5 percent growth."

"The reason the stock is down is that it wasn't a blow out," says Janco Partners' Martin Pyykkonen.

Google Sites revenue was in line at $4.42 billion, but Networks surged to $2.04 billion versus the $1.97 billion expected. International business was in line with $3.52 billion; Traffic Acquisition Costs in line at $1.72 billion. Trouble is, "in line" is a dirty word when talking Google parlance.

The good news: The company's coffers swelled by $2.5 billion and Google's cash position is now $24.5 billion. The company's headcount only grew by a couple of hundred new workers, and capex spending during the quarter was only $221 million when some on the Street were expecting better than twice that figure.

Still, all of this translates into a $30 decline in Google stock, or about 5 percent. Part of that is the revenue figure, but while Google's Eric Schmidt in the release tonight says he is "hugely optimistic" about the internet in 2010, Google will be aggressively spending in the months to come. Schmidt says that his company will "continue to invest heavily for the long term." With a company like this, with a track record of excessive spending, that might be raising some concerns despite Google's relatively recent discipline when it comes to costs. All that aside, look for a lot of commentary tomorrow about buying these shares on the dips.

The fact of the matter is, the economy is turning around, and whether Google meets or beat expectations, the company is better positioned than any other tech/media company to take advantage of it. The company's growth may not be up to snuff, but that isn't Google's problem. It's Wall Street's, which may be getting ahead of itself when it comes to evaluating what's realistic when it comes to expectations, and what's realistic when it comes to determining just how much money Google ought to be making.

Google is getting the job done, with Schmidt saying tonight that the company performed well across the board, growing exceptionally well, and seeing "terrific momentum" in its enterprise business. Schmidt also said that the company's Android mobile operating system is a "pretty clear success."

When Wall Street ratchets down its expectations to something more reasonable, Google may finally be appreciated for the growth engine it has truly become.

Embrace the figures tonight for what they are, and consider Google's shares tonight as more "on sale" than a "sell-off."

何鸿燊

update: 1/20/2010

   DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
Starbucks Corp.'s (SBUX) fiscal first-quarter profit nearly quadrupled as the company continued to reap the benefits of its turnaround.

U.S. same-store sales rose for the first time in two years, and the stronger-than-expected results led the company to again raise its earnings guidance for the year, this time to $1.05 to $1.08 a share. Starbucks had expected growth of 15% to 20% from the prior year's profit of 80 cents.

Starbucks' shares were recently up 1.1% after-hours at $23.85. The stock has nearly tripled over the past year.

The coffee giant's outlook has been brightening lately, in large part because of what Chairman and Chief Executive Howard Schultz called a "more disciplined focus on operations."

With its U.S. operations picking up steam, Starbucks is now looking to wake up its international growth. The company also recently revealed plans to lure weight-conscious consumers with low-calorie food and drink options.

"Continued innovation, the successful enhancement of the customer experience and a transformed, more efficient cost structure have brought Starbucks to a significant milestone--a return to profitable growth," said Schultz.

He added the company is applying lessons learned in the U.S. to its international operations. For the quarter ended Dec. 27, Starbucks reported earnings of $241.5 million, or 32 cents a share, compared with $64.3 million, or 9 cents a share, a year ago.

Excluding restructuring charges, earnings rose to 33 cents from 15 cents. Net revenue increased 4.1% to $2.72 billion, as overall same-store sales rose 4%. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters were looking for earnings of 28 cents on revenue of $2.6 billion.

Starbucks said U.S. comparable-store sales rose 4%, ending an eight-quarter streak of quarterly declines. Total U.S. revenue rose 1%, while the figure grew 19% internationally.

For the current year, Starbucks is still targeting 100 net new stores in the U.S. and 200 internationally, but said it now plans capital expenditures of $500 million, the low end of its previous view. It had 11,181 stores in the U.S. and 5,525 internationally at quarter-end. -By Jay Miller, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2355; jay.miller@dowjones.com

何鸿燊

EBay Inc.'s (EBAY) fourth-quarter profit nearly quadrupled on strength in PayPal and the core marketplace business as well as a $1.4 billion gain from the selling a majority stake in Skype. The online auctioneer expects that momentum to continue in 2010, saying it expects adjusted earnings of $1.63 to $1.68 and revenue of $8.8 billion to $9.1 billion.

The earnings outlook tops the $1.60 expected by Wall Street, while the revenue projection brackets the $9 billion analyst view. For the current quarter, eBay expects income of 39 cents to 41 cents a share and revenue of $2.1 billion to $2.2 billion, in line with analysts' expectations, according to Thomson Reuters. Shares rose 3.7% to $23.05 as results topped the company's expectations. President and Chief Executive John Donahoe highlighted PayPal, which he said "significantly expanded its presence globally and, for the first time, processed more than $20 billion in total payment volume in a quarter."

Revenue at the segment including PayPal jumped 28%. He added gross merchandise volume and sold items "accelerated for the third consecutive quarter." With a marketing blitz in full force, eBay has been looking to build on improvements in its core auction business. Quarterly earnings were $1.35 billion, or $1.02 a share, compared with $367.2 million, or 29 cents a share, a year earlier.

Excluding stock-compensation and impacts such as the Skype gain, earnings rose to 44 cents from 41 cents. Revenue rose 16% to $2.37 billion. In October, EBay expected adjusted earnings of 38 cents to 40 cents a share on revenue of $2.2 billion to $2.3 billion. Excluding items, operating margin fell to 29.3% from 32.8%. In the company's marketplace segment, its biggest, revenue rose 15%, helped by strong growth in its fixed-price format and organic growth in sold items. Excluding vehicles, gross merchandise volume, the total value of goods sold on the Web sites, surged 24%. - By Jay Miller, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2355; jay.miller@dowjones.com (Updates to include analyst comment.)