Current partner at Khosla Ventures and former chief operating officer at payment company Square, Keith Rabois, tweeted on Friday, November 6th, that “The steroid era of startups is over.” Rabois was referring to the announcement that Square’s IPO would be priced between $11 and $13 per share, equating to a market capitalization of around $4 billion. This valuation, although admittedly large, is well below the $6 billion used in Square’s latest round of financing on the private market.
Rabois’ view that sky-high valuations in private funding are beginning to slow is shared by multiple other voices in technology and business-focused media, and Square’s “down round” IPO is being called out as a case study in the disconnect between overly-optimistic private valuations and the more fundamentals-focused public market. The data on the number and valuation amounts in recent tech IPOs support just such a disconnect. 2015 has seen the fewest technology IPOs since 2009 and, according to analysis by the Wall Street Journal, 13 of the 50 venture-backed U.S. technology companies with IPOs since the start of 2014 were trading below their per-share value when they last raised private funding.
The question remains whether Square will be an outlier among its fellow unicorns, or a more cautious public market will continue to show skepticism that revenue growth, however strong, can offset a lack of profits in the near term.
Worrisome financial results also likely contributed. Square showed mounting losses for the first nine months of the year, compared with the same period in 2014, and slowing revenue growth.