[读书学习] 读后感系列贴 (六)

ychen222

（一）http://www.yayabay.com/forum/vie ... &extra=page%3D3
（二）http://www.yayabay.com/forum/vie ... page%3D1&page=1
（三）http://www.yayabay.com/forum/vie ... &extra=page%3D1
（四）http://www.yayabay.com/forum/thread-144356-1-1.html
（五）http://www.yayabay.com/forum/thread-167748-1-1.html

aimei

鼎
不晓得能不能加ＢＡＣ

ychen222

http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZB

国债走势的确差。
30年债125大概跑不掉。

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2012-3-15 08:04

ychen222

更新一下2月14日的贴，当时我说“一旦XLF和BKX有突破，其效应也极大。”
昨天XLF（突破15）和BKX（突破47）都有大进展，值得关注。

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2012-3-14 07:42

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2012-3-14 07:42

ychen222

http://www.yayabay.com/forum/thread-186310-1-1.html

上次FED日我的CPC/CPCE论还是不错地。
这次CPC/CPCE还是涨但不如上次突出，所以可能行情不大。

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2012-3-13 08:28

ychen222

http://stockcharts.com/def/servl ... 660602&cmd=show[s191974221]&disp=O
http://stockcharts.com/def/servl ... 400916&cmd=show[s232049822]&disp=O

$NYSI和$NAA50R都表示要调整，没有象样调整前，我当然不会战略做多。
继续连续小步涨不是没有可能，但我宁可放弃这样的可能，避免承担大风险。

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2012-3-9 08:54

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2012-3-9 08:54

ychen222

http://stockcharts.com/def/servl ... 926808&cmd=show[s195633002]&disp=O

总的来看，美元中长期走势还不错，尤其是79附近能守住的话。
殴州的问题应该还会发酵一阵子，对应着让股市调一调。

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2012-3-8 07:54

ychen222

http://www.smartmoneytracker.blo ... -of-why-i-have.html


“As I have been warning traders for months the dollar's rally out of its three year cycle low almost certainly isn't done yet. The rally out of a three year cycle low usually lasts at least a year, and that's the norm in a secular bear market. Since the three year cycle low bottomed in May of 2011 it's unlikely that we would see a final top until at least May of this year. And since the three year cycle low in 2011 held above the three year cycle low that occurred in 2008, there is even a case to be made that the dollar has now entered a secular bull market.”

所以GARY认为美元起码能涨到5月。
会不会今年股市的走法跟我2/29日贴的图很象？即调整到5月底，然后再大涨。

ychen222

http://stockcharts.com/def/servl ... 400916&cmd=show[s232049822]&disp=O

NASDAQ指数没怎么掉，但$NAA50R已经跌下去了。

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2012-3-5 08:05

ychen222

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_12/nichols030112.html

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2012-3-2 07:57

金子周三有一个小雪崩。
连续小步上涨回调不足会使得大量多仓的止损都设在相似的高位，造成雪崩的条件，当前的股市就有这个危险。
对SPX来说，1378-1202=176的31.8%位于1322。

ychen222

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_12/droke022712.html

“In a recent essay, Golub stated that without Apple's earnings, total U.S. corporate earnings growth goes from being in the mid-teens to only 2 percent. He told Keene that Apple's earnings "obfuscate" the underlying trend in corporate earnings, which he says is "really weak." He also pointed to stronger growth in foreign markets and high oil prices, both of which are good for S&P profits, along with a weaker dollar, as contributors to the profit trend.

Mr. Golub questions how the U.S. could have 2 percent economic growth in the face of 16-17 percent earnings growth. He reasons that cost-cutting and other corporate measures cannot explain the stellar earnings trend of the past couple of years. "If you take away that one name [Apple]," he says, "you get greater clarity on the fact that earnings are moving much closer with the direction of the economy."”

苹果这次的确出风头，其影响力大小依次是NDX，NASDAQ，SPX，难怪RUT落后。
而单一股票使股指走法变型是一个后患。

何鸿燊

回复 41# ychen222


    觉得是因为月尾1有新钱进来2是就业数据，制造业数据出炉。

ychen222

看到一张老图。
感觉是月底月初股市一般很牛，而月内中下旬跌的可能性大。
选举年里5月中下旬比较危险。

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2012-2-29 07:36

ychen222

回复  ychen222

    美国经济数据还是不错，不支持美元继续跌。 看看日元兑美元已经开始跌了。 不过T ...
何鸿燊 发表于 2012-2-27 13:39

我现在关注美元跟Gary的1月29日说法有关，当时他说：

http://www.smartmoneytracker.blo ... ng-with-market.html

“The big question now is; did Bernanke break the dollar rally? Confirmation will come once the dollar finds its daily cycle low, and if the rally out of that low fails to move to new highs and rolls over quickly forming a new pattern of lower lows and lower highs.
If this scenario plays out then we can jettison the deflationary bear market hypothesis and begin positioning for the inflationary scenario which should culminate with a dollar crisis in late 2014. ”

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2012-2-28 07:12

前一篇http://www.smartmoneytracker.blo ... /broken-dollar.html他说：

“If the dollar has begun an intermediate degree decline then we should see it continue generally lower for the next 7 to 10 weeks. If this turns out to be the case then we are not going to see any meaningful declines in the stock market during this period. As a matter of fact the risk is great that the stock market could enter a runaway type rally if the dollar has begun the move down into an intermediate degree bottom.
As you can see in the chart below the last runaway move in 2006 lasted almost 7 months.
Runaway moves are characterized by randomly spaced corrections, all of similar magnitude and duration. As you can see in the chart above the corrective magnitude in this particular runaway move was about 20-30 points.”

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2012-2-28 07:12

So far美元正在按他一个月前的图走，股市也是runaway的走法。

何鸿燊

回复 38# ychen222


    美国经济数据还是不错，不支持美元继续跌。 看看日元兑美元已经开始跌了。 不过TLT开始走强，也许下个月可以看到真的走势。