[讨论] 为什么要管股市是“应该”还是“不应该”涨或者跌呢？

yijianmei

涨就是涨了，跌就是跌了。我总认为 Market is always ahead of news, not the other around。 新闻里说今天股市涨还是跌是因为这个那个，都是忽悠小三的。单个股票上，多数时候是新闻影响股价，但就整体大盘来说，股市涨跌，虽然MM不见得能控制，但方向上绝对是在小三之前就预测得八九不离十了。说到底，赚钱才是硬道理。跟钱过不去，何苦呢？

not4weak

17# yijianmei
Thanks to you. Discussions will only make us understand better.

yijianmei

哈哈，有意思。 不是有人说，‘群众总是错误的吗？“ 莫非你是猜群众心理，然后反着来?
not4weak 发表于 2010-12-3 16:33

No. Actually there are more times that the majority is correct. They are only wrong during market trend changes. Hence, market trending time is much longer than market trend turning time. BTW, good discussion with you.

yijianmei

12# yijianmei

This (the skill of guessing )  is the same thing as what you have criticized, right? Everyone is guessing, or expecting ...

I think the most important thing is to understa ...
not4weak 发表于 2010-12-3 16:21

No, what I criticized is not guessing, but asking "why". One should only care about WHAT the market is doing, and WHAT it will do, not WHY. Because the WHY is always after the fact, after everyone in the market has realized it,  except perhaps insider trading.

not4weak

No, I can't guess the balance in your heart. But I can try to guess all the balances out there as a whole. It's critical to guess what the mass is thinking, not what an individual is thinking, in  ...
yijianmei 发表于 2010-12-3 17:32

哈哈，有意思。 不是有人说，‘群众总是错误的吗？“ 莫非你是猜群众心理，然后反着来?

yijianmei

你能猜出别人的秤的位置？ HOW? 你能猜出我心中秤的位置？
not4weak 发表于 2010-12-3 16:18

No, I can't guess the balance in your heart. But I can try to guess all the balances out there as a whole. It's critical to guess what the mass is thinking, not what an individual is thinking, in the market. :)

not4weak

12# yijianmei

This (the skill of guessing )  is the same thing as what you have criticized, right? Everyone is guessing, or expecting ...

I think the most important thing is to understand the overall economic numbers, money supply etc. These will determine the long trend. Using Microeconomics may not be a good idea for investing as you can only see the leg of an elephant.

yijianmei

You are playing word game here. Expect = "管“。 Your expectation is your expectation.
This is NOT simple, the problem is that you never know what the rest of the market thinks.
not4weak 发表于 2010-12-3 16:16

Then that is it, the skills of guessing(or expecting) what others are guessing.

not4weak

水平的高低不是自己心中的秤的好坏决定的，而是猜出所有其他人心中的秤的位置，和他们心中的秤的变化趋势。
yijianmei 发表于 2010-12-3 17:16

你能猜出别人的秤的位置？ HOW? 你能猜出我心中秤的位置？

not4weak

If I expect a stock that I buy will go up more, then I buy it. Simple as that. It doesn't matter if I think it is expensive or not. The only thing matters is if the rest of the market thinks it wi ...
yijianmei 发表于 2010-12-3 17:12

You are playing word game here. Expect = "管“。 Your expectation is your expectation，not necessarily that of market's.
This is NOT simple, the problem is that you never know what the rest of the market thinks.

yijianmei

3# yijianmei
当然， “秤”的好坏就决定了你的水平高低了，虽然价格有时候高得出奇，但是最后还是要回到价值的。
not4weak 发表于 2010-12-3 16:03

水平的高低不是自己心中的秤的好坏决定的，而是猜出所有其他人心中的秤的位置，和他们心中的秤的变化趋势。

yijianmei

3# yijianmei
什么时候都有人买（有的人花了￥3万买了个螃蟹王），问题是你买不买？1万美金的LV包，你买不买？

为什么要管股市是“应该”还是“不应该”涨或者跌呢？

如果你不买，那就是因为你“管”了，你 ...
not4weak 发表于 2010-12-3 15:58

If I expect a stock that I buy will go up more, then I buy it. Simple as that. It doesn't matter if I think it is expensive or not. The only thing matters is if the rest of the market thinks it will or will not become more expensive.

yijianmei

The key point is: are you an investor or a trader?
If you are an investor, How long is your time frame?


1# yijianmei
sweettomato 发表于 2010-12-3 16:01

Exactly. Time frame is the key to everything. I generally have a core holding that can be months or several years, and trade a portion of it in days and weeks.

not4weak

3# yijianmei
当然， “秤”的好坏就决定了你的水平高低了，虽然价格有时候高得出奇，但是最后还是要回到价值的。

sweettomato

The key point is: are you an investor or a trader?
If you are an investor, How long is your time frame?


1# yijianmei