snowrider

偶像，想不通为啥你预测欧元、黄金涨，大盘咋就跌呢？

Wen2012abc - 千萬別叫偶 "偶像" 所謂槍打出頭鳥 那你知道了吧!  偶的預測純屬瞎猜 矇到了就好 矇錯了就算了 到目前為止好像一切還好 你也許要說所謂的關聯性 那偶就告訴你 東西之間是沒有關聯性的 可以從正相關一夜間變成負相關 所以思考上最好是各東西管各的

snowrider

雪骑老大：能否谈一下去年日本干预日元对ＥＵＲ/ＵＳＤｃｈａｒｔ形态有没有影响？如有这种影响是否会随时间而逐渐矫正？

這問題問得好 恢常有深度!  你知道交叉匯率有其自個的走勢 所以當 10/31/2011 日幣超級大跌時 歐幣也被拖下來些 因而當時歐幣的上漲走勢被打斷
本來 10/04/2011 開始的歐幣上漲 本是應當一個新的上升5浪開始 但被那個打斷後 歐幣的 10/31/2011 便成為了一個 B 波浪 (或是一個 X 波浪亦可) 也就注定了之後數個月的歐幣下跌 以便完成 C 波浪 (或是另一組 ABC 亦可)

snowrider

for gold, you're saying we're in a triangle, with the E wave having started lower. However, the triangle connecting ABCDE you show is neither descending, ascending, or symmetrical. Am I missing something?

nim1984 - Thanks for commenting.  The wave-E scenario was based on the assumption that wave-D must be in a 3-segment movement.  Today's price action shows that the purple line scenario is more possible because our previous wave-D has become a 5-segment wave which means that it is not a wave-D any longer.  Talking about a triangle, it does not need to be perfectly descending, ascending, nor symmetrical, as long as it is a triangle.  Hope this help.

snowrider

Rothschild - I would guess that SP spot index 1320 area could be where the reversal starts.  We  ...
snowrider 发表于 2012-1-1 23:00

So you see that 1320 did not show any sign of climax or exhaustion ... and I have been updating the wave count every weekend.  Now here is just my guess that a big correction is going to start this week.

snowrider

02/18/2012

Comments are welcome!

snowrider

有人說:　"Must learn how to lock profit..."

偶就說:　如果妳認為要學("Must learn")去鎖利("lock profit")　為何不讓 profit run 呢?　為何要限制利潤的空間呢?  讓 profit run 是大道至簡的一件事就是設個 stop order 罷了 (either hard stop or mental stop)

偶所極不贊同的鎖是去 hedge (古時候那叫做鎖單) 偶不知現在國內叫那是甚麼
基本上鎖單是一種自欺的鴕鳥行為且是必註定成不了好的 trader

snowrider

閒聊

偶說過N次就是不要鎖單(i.e., hedge)
做鎖單的人基本上是最不會trade的 也是最不懂得trading的
一旦一個倉給鎖了 接著就是千層鎖萬層鎖然後是鎖上加鎖
最後會搞的該賺的沒賺到 但做錯的倉是賠的滿滿的
總而言之一句話就是: 看錯行情就應當立刻一刀砍 - 認賠重做

dvork

偶們一群去了 Heavenly, Northstar, Kirkwood
snowrider 发表于 2012-2-16 23:53

    连续三天？Heavenly's trails are not bad.

snowrider

太难滑了，天天在等下雪，一有雪就上山去
dvork 发表于 2012-2-15 02:30

偶們一群去了 Heavenly, Northstar, Kirkwood

snowrider

太难滑了，天天在等下雪，一有雪就上山去
dvork 发表于 2012-2-15 02:30

偶 Tahoe local 的朋友剛告訴偶 今天來了 6" 下星期要來更大的

dvork

小雪，去滑雪了吗？

DVORK呢？
not4weak 发表于 2012-2-12 21:33

太难滑了，天天在等下雪，一有雪就上山去

snowrider

I'm a big fan of Elliot wave theory and harmonic trading, however you way over complicate the labeling which deters me (and probably others) from following along. Simply stating the pair and TF (in post) with wave counts 1,2,3,4 a,b,c,d and sub waves as 1a, 1b, 1c, 1d ect works just fine. This, of course, is just my opinion, in the whole scheme of things, it doesn't make much difference.

Big ups for the thread though not many people keep up with these sort of threads. So even if you don't conform to my way of thinking do keep posting charts others will surely find it helpful or at the vary least interesting.

johnny2pips - Thanks for commenting and the suggestion. Please take a look the very first post of this thread, and it will give us an idea about the convention of my wave labeling. It is actually much easier to read and much less confusing than that of most famous EW techinicians. Yes, I agree that "it doesn't make much difference" on different labeling ways because we EW techinicians speak the same language - impulsive vs corrective waves.

snowrider

小雪，去滑雪了吗？

DVORK呢？
not4weak 发表于 2012-2-12 21:33

滑了一個星期的雪
週六半夜才回到家
一個星期沒看行情 真忙

snowrider

1) if SPX goes to 1370 first before C5 formed, the C5 will equal C3, or may be great than C3, right ? but we know C5 can't be great than C3 according Wave Theory. How can we explain this?

C.3 = 84 (1333-1249)
C.5 could be: 1300+84=1384 if C.3=C.5
C.5 could be longer than C.3 (as long as C.3 is not the shortest was in C)

2) If C5 is really formed at 1370, the Fib 61.5% pull back target should be great than 50 point, right ?

If C.5 ends at around 1384, the ideal correction target for C is where the previous 4 ends (C.4, i.e., 1300 area)

3) how can we draw the a-b-c waves after C5 (It's not indicated in the chart ??) I mean wave 'b' is great than C5 <-- Does it mean 'extend' wave instead of a-b-c waves (purple lines) ?

The ending of C.5 is the ending of wave-C.  After that a wave-D could be formed.  We don't know if wave-D will be in regular or irregular correction form until we see the market's behavior.

not4weak

小雪，去滑雪了吗？

DVORK呢？