今日低點剛好打到上升軌 (03/06, 03/23 的低點) 看似這個牛市還沒結束 以波來看
如果 V.1 (03/19), V.2 (03/23) V.3 (03/27) 則今日可能是 V.4 結束 則上去高點不會高過 SPX 1430
如果破過 SPX 1430 那 就看 V = III , which means a long way up to go
Not a bull, not a bear, I am just a wolf ... 偶還是習慣稱行情漲為紅盤跌為慘綠
For similar reasons, I have a lot against fundamental analysis.
EW fits into my trend following system by filtering the buy signals by wave type. My be$t trades, by far, have been during a third wave (either the general market or the stock itself).
Wave 3 is the first higher low and breaks the previous trend line, and typically follows noticeable divergence in MACD, RSI, money flow, Stochastics, ROC, and any other momentum indicator. A huge candle as the dam breaks is the final confirmation.
OP: my comment for your analysis is that I'm amazed how far you take the corrective wave counts. I've never had much success trying to analyze them. I see the SP500 currently in a B wave completing the C wave of next lower degree, itself seeing wave 5 of next lower degree completing as I type.....
Wide Tailz - Thanks for commenting. Believe it or not, I don't give a shxt on any fundamental analysis. Ironically, I used to be doing and writting a lot of fundamental analysis, and I knew that it was just like writing some stories because people wanted to read stories.
I strongly agree with you that the best and easist trades are on the wave-3. About the question how I "take the corrective wave counts", I start from the highest possible degree of timeframe (e.g., montly chart) to analyze and then scale down to the tradeable timeframe (e.g., daily chart). Therefore, sometime a corrective wave in a monthly chart still has some impulsive wave in the daily chart which we can make money from. :)
Not a bull, not a bear, I am just a wolf ... 偶還是習慣稱行情漲為紅盤跌為慘綠
Hi snowrider some great posts on EW well done, some interesting points mapped out in the S&P.... I just have a question... is there any distinction on grey/purple trend lines? i.e one more probable than the other
BoyTrader - Thanks for nice words. The purple lines are my preferred wave counts, while the grey ones are the alternative counts. Of course there are numerous possible wave counts out there, and different people have different preferred counts. I trade to the direction of the purple line. Once the market reaches some point where the purple line becomes invalid, the grey line takes over and becomes the preferred one.
Not a bull, not a bear, I am just a wolf ... 偶還是習慣稱行情漲為紅盤跌為慘綠