Here’s one problem he sees: As the U.S. economy faces near full employment, economic growth will only come via price inflation and interest-rate pressures, making price-earnings multiple expansion tougher. The current forward price/earnings multiple of around 17.6 for the S&P 500 is too high in such an environment, he says.
Paulsen wouldn’t be surprised to see the S&P 500 dip to under 1,800 before it finds a final bottom.