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[读书学习] 读后感系列贴 (四)

HT9/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=142218&extra=page%3D3

“特别是VIX and SPX的Divergence非常微妙。”

昨天VIX到达20天线而SPX不到,看这次两者今后如何同步。

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http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/banister100311.html

"Sentiment in recent individual investor surveys had only 25% of those polled bullish. Historically that average is 39% or higher.

The volatility index has been pegging the 43-45 window recently and historically markets have major reversals anywhere from 45-50, with rare cases of that index going over 50 without a major reversal

The German DAX index is carving out what looks like a bottom channel, and if it can hold the 5300 plus ranges, it could be a leading indicator of a US stock market run

Seasonally, markets tend to bottom in the September-October window with favorable patterns from November into March/April.

Historically, markets tend to correct hard with a "New Moon in Libra" which occurred last Tuesday, the same day the market peaked at 1196 and rolled over hard. They often bottom with the following Full moon, which is scheduled for October 11th.

Elliott Wave patterns I use indicate we are in the final 5th wave stage since the 1370 Bin Laden highs, with a gap in the SP 500 chart at 1088 from September 2010 still to fill. That gap happens to coincide as 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2010 lows to the 2011 highs. It's also has a 50% Fibonacci correlation with the 1356 high to 1101 swing move this summer."

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http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=m5

昨天刚说USD80.5,今天凌晨就基本上算到了。
这样一来,美元升值对股市的压力到头了,下一步美元回调可能变成股市有利因素。

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http://stockcharts.com/def/servl ... D95481&cmd=show[s4549237]&disp=O

从USD长期图来看,80.5是重大阻力。现在USD在79.4。
到80.5以后美元应该回调,对应地股市应能反弹一下。

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http://www.yayabay.com/forum/thread-165138-1-1.html

“所以俺的计划是,如果下跌,从1100开始抄底,如果上涨,从1200处开始放空,如果不到1100或1200,按兵不动。”

从历史交易量图看,“从1100开始抄底”胜算较大,而1200-1300反而是交易稀薄区,涨破200天线1280并非真的很困难。

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http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/2624381.html

捣乱者说的“MACD不支持强力上涨”,$NYSI也能看出类似的意思。

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http://www.yayabay.com/forum/thread-164603-1-1.html

“8月收在1219,在月线4连阴之后若MM本意是把9月收阳线,那么周五会收在1219之上”。

月线5连阴在07年出现过。

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9/19说的“本周要跌”看来成为现实。
在中国A股和TLT没有转变趋势前,美股希望不大。
http://stockcharts.com/def/servl ... 393449&cmd=show[s111487104]&disp=O

A股返回2500+(图里还没有反映出来)。
若成双底,对全球股市是好消息。

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http://www.yayabay.com/forum/thread-123120-2-1.html

对4/21贴的更新:8月份反OE周走法很经典。
本月OE周从周一开始显然是大涨到周五收盘,那么本周要跌?看怎么个跌法啦。

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http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/2602238.html

捣乱者的分析so far正确。

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现在股市也在走三角,只怕也来类似的快下快上这一跌。

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本帖最后由 ychen222 于 2011-9-13 07:38 编辑

http://www.yayabay.com/forum/thread-161658-1-1.html

意大利跟中国谈,所以美股要涨,而德法股市继续创52周新低。这是什么逻辑?
当然欧股也是快到反弹时候了。

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http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_08/hamilton090911.html

“High-velocity selloffs like we saw in early August 2011 are not seen early in bear markets. The reason is simple, stock-bear psychology. Sharp selloffs spark extreme fear, which scares speculators and investors alike into dumping stocks to rush their capital out of harm's way. But the mission of a bear market is to do the most damage possible. It accomplishes this by lulling traders into a sense of complacency for as long as possible. The longer that a bear can grind lower gradually in stealth mode without sparking fear prematurely, the more traders it will trap and maul.”

此规律在大范围和小范围里都是很有道理。
当然现在到底是调整还是大熊毕竟还不明朗。
本帖最后由 ychen222 于 2011-9-14 14:52 编辑

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/ciovacco090811.html

1100恰好使SP500跌幅没有超过20%(1370*80%=1096),所以理论上现在还是调整,不是熊市。
但德国/法国股市33%过了,而且就发生在7/8月之间的几周,明显殴州股市短期内没救。
在这样的背景下,美股能保住1100/1000就不错了,马上大牛不太可能。

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