[闲谈] 20121011 YYB日间灌水

cellphone

高开。一般，这个空很快就会补掉。

（原因见盘前新闻。另，短时间超卖须修正）

酷马说了，要将失业绿数据改到4%。。。。那就改吧。。。

cellphone

凹八要堵肉麻地的嘴，以报上次辩论失利的仇。辩论之后凹八落后了。

就业数据一定要改。

cellphone

华尔街早餐：周四美股盘前必读
http://www.sina.com.cn  2012年10月11日 20:43  新浪财经微博
　　今日盘前重要经济数据

　　北京时间今晚 8:30   上周首次申请失业救济人数

　　北京时间今晚 8:30    8月贸易赤字

　　北京时间今晚 8:30    9月进口及出口价格指数

　　北京时间今晚 11:00   上周原油(92.64,1.39,1.52%)库存

　　北京时间明晨  2:00     9月联邦预算赤字

　　今日盘前重要新闻

　　美国上周初请失业金人数33.9万，明显好于预期。美国劳工部宣布，在截至10月6日的一周中，首次申领失业救济人数为33.9万。据彭博社调查，经济学家平均预期为37.0万。此前一周人数为36.7万。

　　标普下调西班牙长期信用评级至BBB-。标普将西班牙的长期信用评级从“BBB+” 下调至“BBB-”，较“垃圾级”评级仅高一个等级，主要由于该国所面临的公共财政风险正在增强。并将其评级前景定为负面。此外，标普预计西班牙2012年GDP将下滑1.7%，2013年还将再次下滑1.4%。

　　美政府起诉富国银行不负责任发房贷。美国政府指控富国银行不负责任地发放政府担保住房贷款，导致数亿美元损失。“以发放贷款数目为基础的员工奖励机制，使富国银行发放了10万笔以上不符合要求的政府担保住房贷款，且发现问题并未通知住房和城市发展部。”

　　瑞信报告称亚洲家庭总财富超欧洲。瑞士信贷《全球财富报告2012》显示，在截止于6月的过去1年，亚洲在家庭财富方面已经超过了欧洲。同期全球家庭总财富下降5.2%，欧洲下降14%至69.3万亿美元，亚洲下降1.9%至74.1万亿美元。世界最富裕的国家仍是瑞士，成年人人均财富46.8万美元。

　　柯达为减债年底将停止员工医保福利。柯达周三宣布，计划在年底停止退休员工和在职员工的医疗保险福利，帮助其解决一项12亿美元的负债。这项福利包括医疗、牙科、人寿保险以及在职员工的收入福利，并不影响养老金福利。为了支付这部分福利，柯达过去每月需要支付1000万美元。

　　美国将对华光伏产品征收34-47%关税。美国商务部周三最终判决，对从中国进口太阳能板与太阳能电池产品征收34%至47%的关税。对大多数中国制造商来说，最终判决要比今年早些时候宣布的初步判决更为严重。对于最大的太阳能板制造商尚德来说，最终裁决最高，从33%提高至近47%。

　　美联储褐皮书：住房销售改善促经济微弱增长。上个月美国经济微弱增长，主要由于受到住房及汽车销售表现改善的支持，但就业市场则几乎并未显示出改变的迹象。自发布上一份褐皮书报告以来，消费者支出整体上呈现出持平到小幅增长的走势。制造业状况在某种程度上有所改善。

　　传软银以逾128亿美元洽购斯普林特控股权。路透社周四援引知情消息来源报道称，日本软银公司正在谈判以超过1万亿日元(约合128亿美元)的价格收购美国第三大移动运营商斯普林特Nextel公司(Sprint Nextel)的多数股权。Sprint Nextel(NYSE: S)的股票在周四盘前交易中大涨17%以上。

　　黑石KKR贝恩资本被控操纵竞标。据彭博报道，据法庭诉状，黑石、KKR、贝恩资本和凯雷等公司高管通过电子邮件相互保证，称他们不会在收购交易中竞争以避免抬高价格并激怒竞争对手。据波士顿联邦法官昨日公布的修正后诉状，通信记录将作为证据，显示这些公司在19次杠杆收购和8次其它交易中，包括杠杆收购繁荣期间最大型的交易，非法操纵竞标。

　　拉加德(微博)：应多给希腊两年时间完成紧缩目标。国际货币基金组织(IMF)总裁拉加德周四在东京召开的IMF年会上表示，欧元区应给希腊额外两年时间来完成与救助相关的财政紧缩目标。拉加德表示：“这是我们对葡萄牙和西班牙，也是对希腊主张的内容，我一再重复希腊需要额外两年时间来实施财政整合项目。”

　　阿拉斯加航空公司将订购50架波音客机。据《华尔街日报》报道，消息人士称，阿拉斯加航空集团周四将订购50架波音公司(微博)737单通道喷气客机。报道称，订购预计将包括波音目前一代737客机及升级版737MAX-8和MAX-9喷气飞机。阿拉斯加航空集团运营着全波音737航队，截至去年年末共有117架飞机。报道称，受737 MAX新订单提振，波音上一季度订单增长。

Diver

Jobless Claims

Released On 10/11/2012 8:30:00 AM For wk10/6, 2012 Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual New Claims - Level 367 K 369 K 370 K 362 K to 375 K 339 K 4-week Moving Average - Level 375.00 K 375.50 K 364.00 K New Claims - Change 4 K 6 K -30 K

Highlights Big improvement in jobless claims may be tied in part to the week's seasonal adjustment and will in any case have to be confirmed by improvement in subsequent weeks. Claims fell to 339,000 in the October 6 week for a 30,000 decline that's the biggest since July. The 339,000 level is the best reading of the recovery! The four-week average is down 11,500 to 364,000 and is now trending more than 10,000 below the month-ago comparison in what points to improvement for both payroll growth and the unemployment rate. A possible issue skewing the number is the adjustment which expected a big swing for the first week of the quarter that didn't happen. Next week's report will help clear up this issue. Continuing claims continue to move lower, down 15,000 in data for the September 29 week to 3.273 million with the four-week average down 12,000 to 3.279 million. But the unemployment rate for insured workers isn't improving, holding at 2.6 percent where it's been since mid-March.

Diver

International Trade

Released On 10/11/2012 8:30:00 AM For Aug, 2012 Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual Trade Balance Level $-42.0 B $-42.5 B $-44.0 B $-46.5 B to $-41.2 B $-44.2 B

Highlights In August, the U.S. trade balance worsened and partially for the worse reason-exports declined, likely reflecting economic weakness in Europe and slower growth in Asia. Also, oil and petroleum product imports jumped on higher prices. The trade deficit expanded to $44.2 billion from $42.5 billion in July (originally $42.0 billion). This compares to market expectations of a trade gap of $44.0 billion. Exports fell 1.0 percent, following a 1.1 percent decrease in July. Imports slipped 0.1 percent after a 0.6 percent dip the prior month. The widening in the trade gap was led by the petroleum deficit which increased to $23.5 billion in August from $21.0 billion the month before. The non-petroleum goods shortfall narrowed to $35.3 billion from $36.3 billion in July. The services surplus slipped to $15.1 billion from $15.4 billion in July. On a not seasonally adjusted basis, the August figures showed surpluses, in billions of dollars, with Hong Kong $2.1 ($1.8 for July), Australia $1.8 ($2.1), Singapore $0.9 ($0.7), and Egypt $0.2 ($0.2) among others. Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China $28.7 ($29.4), European Union $11.7 ($12.0), OPEC $8.1 ($8.4), Japan $6.7 ($6.8), Germany $5.7 ($4.9), Mexico $4.5 ($5.0), Canada $2.4 ($2.1), Ireland $2.4 ($2.6), and Venezuela $2.2 ($1.4) among others. The decline in exports was again was led by a decline in industrial supplies but exports of nonmonetary gold rose modestly. Foods, feeds & beverages also posted a notable decrease with minor slippage seen in autos and consumer goods. Capital goods excluding autos posted a modest gain. Higher oil prices led the boost in imports but businesses appear to be concerned about consumer demand later this year as consumer goods declined. Industrial supplies jumped $1.5 billion with oil and petroleum products playing a key role. Businesses are remaining cautious about equipment investment as capital goods excluding autos slipped again. But a key concern likely is that imports of consumer goods declined, possibly indicating that businesses continue to worry about demand. The latest report continues to suggest that global trade is shrinking somewhat. This suggests soft economic growth ahead for the U.S. and other countries. However, there is potential for improvement in domestic demand in the U.S. after an unexpectedly sharp decline in initial jobless claims.

Market Consensus before announcement The U.S. international trade gap in July edged up but much less than expected-largely on a downward revision to June and a July narrowing in the petroleum deficit. The trade deficit widened slightly to $42.0 billion from $41.9 billion in June. But global trade shrank in the latest report. Exports declined 1.0 percent, following a 1.2 percent boost in June. Imports shrank 0.8 percent after a 1.5 percent fall in June. The slight increase in the trade gap was led by the non-petroleum goods gap which expanded to $35.8 billion from $34.2 billion in June. The petroleum deficit decreased to $20.9 billion in July from $22.5 billion the month before. The services surplus eased to $15.3 billion from $15.5 billion in June.

Diver

Import and Export Prices

Released On 10/11/2012 8:30:00 AM For Sep, 2012 Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual Export Prices - M/M change 0.9 % 1.0 % 0.4 % 0.1 % to 0.9 % 0.8 % Export Prices - Y/Y change -0.9 % -0.5 % Import Prices - M/M change 0.7 % 1.1 % 0.7 % 0.0 % to 2.2 % 1.1 % Import Prices - Y/Y change -2.2 % -0.6 %

Highlights Hikes are popping up in the import/export price report though overall pressure remains subdued. Import prices jumped 1.1 percent in September which is very sharp and which matches August's revised jump. Energy prices are the main factor behind this two month spike, but there's other pressures as well. Excluding petroleum, import prices rose 0.2 percent in September to end four straight months of decline for this key reading. Many readings show gains including for imported motor vehicles and imported capital goods. But consumer goods other than vehicles continue to show no pressure. The export side shows a 0.8 percent rise for a third straight gain. Pressure in September includes a third straight rise for agricultural exports but also includes increases for other exports including both consumer goods and motor vehicles. Despite the pressure spots, most year-on-year rates remain in the negative column. Total import prices are down 0.6 percent year-on-year with the ex-petroleum reading at minus 0.9 percent. Export prices are down a year-on-year 0.5 percent but year-on-year agricultural exports do show pressure, up 6.7 percent in reflection of the drought. Inflation hawks can use this report to find evidence, but only very early evidence, of price pressures. Producer prices will be posted tomorrow followed on Tuesday by consumer prices.

Market Consensus before announcement Import prices jumped 0.7 percent in August but it was mostly petroleum related. Import prices excluding petroleum fell 0.2 percent in August which was a 4th straight decline. Prices of imported finished goods continued to edge downward with consumer goods down 0.3 percent for a third straight decline and capital goods down 0.1 percent for the fourth decline in five months. These are the weakest readings of the recovery and point to a lack of pricing power for producers. Export prices, lifted by rising prices for agricultural products, jumped 0.9 percent in August on top of a revised 0.4 percent rise in July.

Definition Import price indexes are compiled for the prices of goods that are bought in the United States but produced abroad and export price indexes are developed for the prices of goods sold abroad but produced domestically. These prices indicate inflationary trends in internationally traded products.  Why Investors Care

Yearly changes in import and export prices reveal long term trends in inflation for tradable goods. Data Source: Haver Analytics

Diver

an examination of the trading environment trends provides the basis for a preliminary forecast that the DJIA will find a base at 13,400 in the next few days and then rally up to 13,700 next week before declining to 13,100 to establish another base to make a run for 14,000 by year end.

Diver

equity bottom finding may not stabilize for several more days and only when three of four near-term trend indicators are rising will a rebound by the market indices occur. Such a rebound is still likely to drive the DJIA up to 13,700 and the S&P500 index to 1,475, perhaps as early as next week.

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说明：

既QE3之后，阳棒被抹掉，多方明显动力不足。所以，大家发现没有，多方都是在夜黑风高的夜盘上作手脚，以抬高指数。第二天，由于回到现实，Traders 就是卖。因此才有QE3之后一步步走低。

cellphone

俺预期，两周之后苹果出财报后去600！

Diver

Down. 10,000 More to Go on $DJIA

Investors braced for a poor earnings season by shedding a painful 1% on Tuesday. Then after hours Alcoa posted a modest earnings beat on surprisingly robust sales. This has Alcoa and S&P futures pointing higher today.

Again, one company announcement does not an earnings season make. Yet given the global nature of Alcoa's business, then this is a very nice start to an earnings season with low expectations. The rest of the week has some large banks, but their earnings don't translate well to the majority of other company results.

Next week we will get a decent swatch of corporate bellwethers providing their results along with guidance for the future. I still like our odds to surprise to the upside and see Tuesday's dip as a buying opportunity. We'll know the truth soon enough with plenty of time to get more defensive if necessary.

not4weak

涨势喜人啊

CoolMax

汇报一下仓位情况：

一半仓位自动止盈了。平均每个ES合约收益10点以上。

剩下50%仓位，继续持有TLT空头仓位，果果多仓和ES多仓。

ES仓位，推高止损在成本处！暂时去掉止盈。

cellphone

俺预期，两周之后苹果出财报后去600！
cellphone 发表于 2012-10-11 08:36

     重大新闻：Appeals court reverses sales ban on Samsung smartphone

CoolMax

今天只要守住昨天低点，就形成Higher Low，按照主席的话就是指北针。

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2012-10-11 12:04