SECTOR FOCUS Tesla: It’s No Amazon or Apple
Ford may be a better buy.
ByTeresa Rivas Updated Oct. 4, 2017 3:42 p.m. ET
Since the start of 2017, Tesla (TSLA) has shot up more than 66%, while Ford (F) is inching toward 2%.
ILLUSTRATION: BLOOMBERG NEWS
However Standpoint Research’s Ronnie Moas thinks that Tesla’s period of outperformance is coming to an end, while Ford still looks like it has room to run. Moas today upgraded Ford to Buy from Hold, and downgraded Tesla to Sell from Hold. He estimates that Ford has more than 20% upside next year, including its robust dividend yield, while he thinks that Tesla will drop by at least 20%. Tesla at $500? Try $300, he thinks. More of his thoughts:
I see $2 in earnings per share potential on Ford looking out the 2018-2019. With Tesla the argument is valuation. Most auto manufacturers trade at between 0.3X and 0.6X * sales Tesla is trading at 10 times the high end of that range and trading at least 3 to 5 years ahead of itself. This is a company that needs revenues between $50 bln and $100 bln in order to justify the current valuation right now. Their revenues are currently tracking at $12 bln for 2017 and $18-$20 bln for 2018. They will not turn a profit before 2019. The market is treating Tesla as if it is Amazon (AMZN) or Apple (AAPL) when in fact they have a lot more competition than Apple and Amazon have.
True, Tesla has first-mover advantage in the electric vehicle market, but now Ford and plenty of others are hot on its tail. Moreover, Moas argues, while it’s hard to bet against Elon Musk, the market is simply too optimistic and the stock’s valuation is too high—he thinks the stock is worth no more than $180.
发表于 2017-10-4 15:42
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发表于 2017-10-4 20:53
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