Weekend Update
While the volatile swings led many to believe the markets were down significantly for the week, equities finished only off modestly. Monday, stocks dropped sharply in light trading on the heels of crude oil prices dropping to their lowest levels in almost four years. Tuesday, equities mostly rebounded as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended up slightly higher before dropping sharply at mid-week on lower retail sales and PPI data. Stocks were mixed on Thursday after non-voting FOMC member Bullard stated we could see additional Quantitative Easing. We finished the week up sharply on higher consumer sentiment data and a reversal in European markets. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) and the Blue Chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average’s ($DJI) both finished the week down 1%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) finished the week down a modest 0.4%. The small caps (RUT, IWM) actually rallied 2.8% and will attempt to lead stocks higher next week.
Option volatility was on a roller coaster this week as stocks had massive swings. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) had only a 3.5% gain for the week but the trading range was significant. The ‘Fear Gauge’ rose above $30 on Thursday morning for the first time since November of 2011. We don’t believe this is the end of volatile trading as faith in the Fed is being questioned on more QE. Also, deflation concerns, dismal economic growth and the Ebola threat should add plenty of volatility in the near-term.
Treasury yields were down only moderately this past week despite steep declines mid-week. The 10-year yield slipped under 1.9% on Wednesday as Treasuries saw a huge spike higher. We then saw rates quickly reverse and finish the week only off slightly. Despite the daily swings in rates, traders are still concerned about growth overseas slowing as well as inflation. Oil futures (/CL) also dipped sharply mid-week on slowing growth concerns but managed to gain some losses back on Thursday and Friday. Lower crude prices should have a positive effect on consumer spending going into the holiday season.
It’s going to be a relatively light week of news with the only highlights are on housing and the CPI. The housing sector has been giving mixed signals recently with sales and prices sluggish but last week's housing starts showing a rebound. Globally, price inflation has softened, leading central banks to cut back on aggressive language on reducing balance sheets. This week's CPI report may influence market views on when the Fed next raises policy rates as inflation remains well below target of 2 percent. Earnings also get into full swing this week with key tech results from bellwethers Apple (AAPL), IBM and Yahoo (YHOO). Blue chips quarterly results are also due from McDonalds (MCD), Boeing (BA) and Dow Chemical (DOW).
Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:
Monday:
A.M. – GCI, HAL, HAS, PETS, SAP, VRX, VFC
P.M. – AAPL, CMG, IBM, TXN, ZION
Tuesday:
A.M. – APOL, ARMH, EAT, CP, HOG, KMB, LMT, MCD, RAI, TRV, UTX, VZ
P.M.– AMGN, BRCM, CREE, DFS, ISRG, SIX, VMW, YHOO
Wednesday:
A.M. – ABT, BIIB, BA, DOW, EMC, GD, NSC, NOC, OC, SPG, SWK, USB, WHR, XRX
P.M. – CXTS, SLM. SKX, T, TER, TSCO
Thursday:
A.M. – ALXN, AAL, BCC, CAT, CKP, CMCSA, CS, DO, DPS, DNKN, LLY, GM, JBLU, LO, MMM, NOK, NUE, OXY, POT, RTN, UAL, UA, UNP, USG
P.M. – ALTR, AMZN, DECK, KLAC, OLN, P, PFG, SWN
Friday:
A.M. – BMY, COG, CL, DLPH, F, MCO, PG, STT, UPS
Economic Releases (10/20 – 10/24):
Monday:
9:00 am CT - Fed’s Powell Speaks
11:00 am CT - Fed’s Tarullo Speaks
Tuesday:
6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales
9:00 am CT – Existing Home Sales
Wednesday:
6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications
7:30 am CT – Consumer Price Index (CPI)
9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories
Thursday:
Chain Store Sales
7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims
8:00 am CT – FHFA House Price Index
8:45 am CT – PMI Mfg. Index – Flash
9:00 am CT – Leading Economic Indicators
9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories
10:00 am CT – Kansas City Mfg. Index
Friday:
9:00 am CT – New Home Sales |