snowrider

Opinion is that we are due somewhat of a correction in the SP500.

Nice work Snowrider! SP500 will close the week under the 1400 mark and reinforces the downwards trend.

Thank you Michael.  I am hoping that SP does not make any extension from here; otherwise, the extension could go to 1440.  Let's wait and see. :)

snowrider

Quote from MADASINHATTER:

Yeah i got one.Why do you call it perfect? Do you mean in hindsight? Or is it part of the new world order where you take a word or phrase and use it to describe the complete opposite? Like saying " bringing peace and stability" while dropping bombs on people.Is it perfect in that sense? Where you show that it could go either up or down,on a scale of 1-10 how useful and perfect is that,say compared to just guessing?

MADASINHATTER - I call it Perfect Wave because it is the brand of the series of my wave posts.  I could have called it Snowrider's Wave Analysis (but that did not sound powerful).  Of course, you can interpet the word "perfect" as anything as you want.  The analysis is of some educated guess.  Isn't the whole world making guesses all the time?  The analysis is based on the Elliott Wave Principle.  If you don't know what that is, I would recommend you getting a book and study first.

snowrider

Quote from bwolinsky:

What has your backtest showed and what have your results been?

It's apparent some logic's went into the chart drawings, but none placed on any performance summaries or analysis of the data.

Reminds me of Hershyites, must draw straight lines, without questioning whether they actually did go to where they ended when they were drawn or any regard to what actually happened later.

This thread is missing that analysis, and it's required if you expect anyone to really analyze the charts that have been posted.

bwolinsky - I have extensively played system long time ago, I wrote tons of systems with TradeStation, I did backtesting 24x7, and then I threw all my systems to trash can.  What I want to tell you about backtest is ... been there and done that.  If you are asking some trader who utilizes price action and/or pattern methodologies (e.g., Gann, Elliott Wave, Dow Theory etc.) about back testing, you ask a wrong question!

I post my wave analysis here not looking for followers.  I am looking for people who speak the same langauage (are also playing EW) for discussion.  I am looking for people who enjoy playing EW on trading like playing chess.  If you don't believe in EW, you won't be interested in reading my posts.

snowrider

03/24/2012

Comments are welcome!

snowrider

有种！
我转了一圈，就没有看到别的论坛有熊帖子。 熊军很孤独！

cowboy - 謝謝 這樣偶就更篤定了 以後就這樣 ... 民意調查的部分就拜託你來做 ... 如果有像這種偶孤獨地對抗其它的大多數 就千萬要告訴偶 (那偶就更篤定了) ... 或是有萬一偶與大多數的人看法一致時 也千萬要告訴偶 (那偶就會開始懷疑自己了)

snowrider

Hi snowrider some great posts on EW well done, some interesting points mapped out in the S&P.... I just have a question... is there any distinction on grey/purple trend lines? i.e one more probable than the other

BoyTrader - Thanks for nice words.  The purple lines are my preferred wave counts, while the grey ones are the alternative counts.  Of course there are numerous possible wave counts out there, and different people have different preferred counts.  I trade to the direction of the purple line.  Once the market reaches some point where the purple line becomes invalid, the grey line takes over and becomes the preferred one.

snowrider

Quote from Wide Tailz:

For similar reasons, I have a lot against fundamental analysis.  

EW fits into my trend following system by filtering the buy signals by wave type.  My be$t trades, by far, have been during a third wave (either the general market or the stock itself).

Wave 3 is the first higher low and breaks the previous trend line, and typically follows noticeable divergence in MACD, RSI, money flow, Stochastics, ROC, and any other momentum indicator.  A huge candle as the dam breaks is the final confirmation.  

OP:  my comment for your analysis is that I'm amazed how far you take the corrective wave counts.  I've never had much success trying to analyze them.  I see the SP500 currently in a B wave completing the C wave of next lower degree, itself seeing wave 5 of next lower degree completing as I type.....

Wide Tailz - Thanks for commenting.  Believe it or not, I don't give a shxt on any fundamental analysis.  Ironically, I used to be doing and writting a lot of fundamental analysis, and I knew that it was just like writing some stories because people wanted to read stories.

I strongly agree with you that the best and easist trades are on the wave-3.  About the question how I "take the corrective wave counts", I start from the highest possible degree of timeframe (e.g., montly chart) to analyze and then scale down to the tradeable timeframe (e.g., daily chart).  Therefore, sometime a corrective wave in a monthly chart still has some impulsive wave in the daily chart which we can make money from.  :)

NYQ

要走灰线？

snowrider

要走灰线？
NYQ 发表于 2012-3-26 10:13

偶猜可能是的

NYQ

偶猜可能是的
snowrider 发表于 2012-3-26 11:29

    血骑，你说有木有可能开发出精确制导？你的棋局就算早期GPS啦。

snowrider

有同學問到如何開始學EW  以下是偶的回答:
請先看 Ralph Nelson Elliott  寫的書 來回看透至少10遍以上 熟記所有型態與行為特徵
才能再看 Robert Prechter 的書
Prechter 對於原古典EW有許多的加註 所以他的加註可算是現代版的EW
但偶對於 Prechter 的加註有些部分贊同有些不同意
關於書 是的 英文的是最好 因為中文翻譯的譯者可能會錯意而亂翻
(當然熟讀偶的帖 就可以學習到偶對於EW 現代雪派的加註)

NYQ

Snowride: Seems the correction between the two peaks may not bad,   formally start tomorrow?

Change of mind: No longer favor two peak prediction: Kind of believe it will be a continuation rise pattern. Will be clearer in a couple of days.

snowrider

Snowride: Seems the correction beteween the two peaks may not bad,   formally start tomorrow?

Cha ...
NYQ 发表于 2012-3-27 16:06

偶不知道呀 目前A股在向下殺 但是偶卻覺得SP要向上走 因為延伸浪的第三小波好像還沒到位 ...

NYQ

Snowride: 目前A股在向下殺--------

A股is more or less a flip over in shape, I guess it will flip back to test previous high soon.

snowrider

今日低點剛好打到上升軌 (03/06, 03/23 的低點) 看似這個牛市還沒結束 以波來看
如果 V.1 (03/19), V.2 (03/23) V.3 (03/27) 則今日可能是 V.4 結束 則上去高點不會高過 SPX 1430  
如果破過 SPX 1430 那 就看 V = III , which means a long way up to go