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回复 50# mooncake

沁颍

2/13/2015

Stocks took another big leap up yesterday as investors shook off a downbeat Retail Sales number. The data showed that the ‘tax break’ due to lower gas prices has not equated into more consumer spending, which is a big concern going forward. This morning, U.S. stock futures (/ES) are slightly higher as the rally looks to continue. Most major indices are just below all-time highs again and we could see these levels taken out today. We have seen recent weakness on Friday’s in 2015 as trader’s take off some risk going into the weekends. Option volatility reflected the moves in equities as it was lower throughout yesterday’s session. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is still higher compared to the last time equites were at these levels so that is something to watch.



Treasuries are a lower, in conjunction with weakness in overseas bonds, albeit in light volume. The 10-year yield has risen to 2.01%, but remains inside recent ranges. Stocks around the world are in the green after a better than expected Euro-zone and German GDP numbers and following optimism over Ukraine and Greek issues. Additionally, crude oil has climbed above $52 a barrel despite huge inventories. Today's U.S. data includes trade prices and preliminary consumer sentiment for February. Dallas Fed Fisher speaks again on monetary policy, and is likely to reprise his comments from earlier this week.



Stock Stories:

Apple (AAPL) –The fruit of everyone’s eye – The tech product- maker settled at an all-time high as analyst upgrades and activist investors continue to pile on the ‘Buy’ recommendations. Optimism on the upcoming iWatch is positive heading into spring. The shares are up again this morning ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Import & Export Prices

9:00 am CT – Consumer Sentiment



Notable Earnings:   

Friday – 2/13:

Before Market:  DTE, EXC, SJM, TRW, VF

After Market:  N/A



Tuesday – 2/17:

Before Market:  GT, MDT, MGM, PES, WLT, WM

After Market:  A, ADI, CF, FOSL, JACK, LZB, NBR, PBPB, RAX, VNO

沁颍

2/12/2015

Stocks were choppy on hump day and continued to ride the rollercoaster after the close and overnight. A late spike higher after the close on a rumored deal with Greece and the Euro-zone was quickly quashed as stocks fell throughout the night. This morning, U.S. stock futures (/ES) are sharply higher ahead of the opening bell as a proposed cease-fire with Russia in eastern Ukraine was announced. Markets continue to be driven by geopolitical news and rumors so the chop may continue. Option volatility reflected the moves in equities as it was relatively flat throughout Wednesday’s session. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) should be under pressure today as stocks build upside momentum.



Bonds are taking their cue from the rise in stocks as they are sharply lower. The risk on trade has been in favor the last week and will continue today. The 10-year yield is back above 2% as optimism over an earlier rate hike is growing. Overseas, equities are also higher in both Asia and in Europe on the cease-fire deal. The outlier was the UK after the Bank of England predicted a faster pace of inflation, which may suggest earlier and more rate hikes than were priced in. In the U.S. today the Retail Sales and Weekly Jobless Claims will be in focus. There will also be an important 30-year Bond auction at noon CT.  



Stock Stories:

Tesla (TSLA) –Stalled – The electric car maker posted a big miss on its earnings call yesterday after the close. Analysts are piling on the downgrades this morning as growth stalls. The shares are taking a beating down 8% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT – Retail Sales

9:00 am CT – Business Inventories

9:30 am CT – Natural gas Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 30-year Bond Auction Results



Notable Earnings:   

Thursday – 2/12:

Before Market:  AAP, ANR, APA, AVP, CS, DPS, IFF, JAH, SNI

After Market:  BYD, CBS, GRPN, KRFT, SFLY, SON, TIME, WWE



Friday – 2/13:

Before Market:  DTE, EXC, SJM, TRW, VF

After Market:  N/A

沁颍

2/11/2015

Tuesday saw massive gains in stocks as investors sought out domestic shares. The rally was sparked by rumors that the Euro-zone would give a six month extension to Greece on its bailout package. Despite Germany squashing this rumor, stocks continued to rally. This morning, U.S. stock futures (/ES) are slightly lower ahead of the opening bell. Focus may once again be on Greece as its creditors are meeting to discuss the newly elected governments demands. Option volatility took a hit yesterday as stocks rallied into the close. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell 7% and is sitting right at its 50-day moving average. Volatility remains firm even with stocks only 1% below all-time highs.



Treasuries are slightly higher in tandem with most global bond markets today. The 10-year yield is down to 1.98% after moving above 2% yesterday for the first time in a month. Overseas, equities are in the red as risk appetite is cautious heading into the Euro-zone meeting on Greece. In the U.S. today the $24 B 10-year auction will dominate the focus at noon CT. The economic slate is light with just the January Treasury budget and oil inventories. The MBA reported mortgage applications dove 9.0% in the week ended February 6 despite the fall in rates. There are a number of earnings reports that will be of interest, including Baidu (BIDU), Cisco Systems (CSCO) and Tesla (TSLA).



Stock Stories:

Pepsico (PEP) –Doritos are great! – The snack food/beverage giant reported better than expected quarterly results this morning. Although the soft drink segment is weakening, the snack food sector continues to grow. The shares are up over 3% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

7:00 am CT – Fed’s Fisher Speaks

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 10-year Note Auction Results

1:00 pm CT – Treasury Budget



Notable Earnings:   

Wednesday – 2/11:

Before Market:  AOL, ARMH, FSRV, LO, MDLZ, MOS, OC, PEP, TWX, ZTS

After Market:  AMAT, BIDU, CTL, CAKE, CSCO, FEYE, MET, NTAP, NVDA, PNRA, TSLA, TSO, TRIP, Z



Thursday – 2/12:

Before Market:  AAP, ANR, APA, AVP, CS, DPS, IFF, JAH, SNI

After Market:  BYD, CBS, GRPN, KRFT, SFLY, SON, TIME, WWE

沁颍

2/10/2015

U.S. stock futures (/ES) are indicating that the market will bounce at the open, as stocks' volatility continues to be high. The new Greek government has been at odds with the other euro-zone members about the conditions attached to Athens' bailout package, and the Greek finance minister reportedly said that the country would propose a compromise deal, causing futures to rise. There are also rumors that the Euro-Zone will extend liquidity needs for an additional 6 months. Crude oil prices (/CL) are slightly lower this morning as they near resistance levels. Recent announcements of capital expenditure reductions and well shutdowns by a number of oil companies has helped steady oil prices. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose sharply yesterday as weakness in stocks was widespread. We should see the ‘Fear Gauge’ reverse lower this morning if stocks remain in positive territory.



Bonds are selling off sharply as stocks rise this morning. The 10-year yield is approaching the 2% level and the trend has been higher for the last week after bottoming near 1.65% recently. The focus remains on Greece ahead of tomorrow's Euro-zone finance minister meeting. The leftist Syriza government and its right wing coalition partner Independent Greeks are holding a confidence vote in parliament. Data overnight was mostly disappointing, especially Chinese inflation. The U.S. calendar is light with the focus on the $24 B in 3-year note auction. Data includes December JOLTS, wholesale trade, and weekly chain store sales. The hawkish Fed president Lacker (voter) speaks on the economy at 7:20 am CT.



Stock Stories:

Coca-Cola (KO) –Who still drinks soda?! – The beverage giant reported better than expected quarterly results this morning. The company beat on the top and bottom lines as their strategic initiatives take hold. The CEO stated that 2015 will be a transition year as the company executes key planning to leverage the brand. The shares are up over 2% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

7:20 am CT – Fed’s Lacker Speaks

9:00 am CT– JOLTS

9:00 am CT – Wholesale Trade

12:00 pm CT – 3-year Note Auction Results



Notable Earnings:   

Tuesday – 2/10:

Before Market:  CDW, CVS, DF, KKR, MWW, REGN, SAVE, HOT, UBS

After Market:  AKAM, GNW, LOCK, WU



Wednesday – 2/11:

Before Market:  AOL, ARMH, FSRV, LO, MDLZ, MOS, OC, PEP, TWX, ZTS

After Market:  AMAT, BIDU, CTL, CAKE, CSCO, FEYE, MET, NTAP, NVDA, PNRA, TSLA, TSO, TRIP, Z

TeasedByWS

沁颍

Stocks are continuing Friday’s late afternoon sell-off as the global markets react to the Greek news. Newly installed Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras yesterday said his government would repeal Greece's austerity program and reject any extension of the country's bailout, likely creating a confrontation between the country and the rest of the EU. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are sharply lower as European markets also declined on the news. Former Fed Chief Greenspan also weighed in on the unrest by stating it’s just a matter of time before Greece leaves the Euro-Zone. We should see a solid pop in option volatility this morning if stocks continue to trade in the red.



Treasuries have reversed from last week’s sell-off and are sharply higher this morning. The 10-year yield settled last Friday at 1.94% but should give up some gains today as demand for the safety of Bonds picks up. On top of the Greek issues, Trade Data out of China showed sluggish demand from abroad and home. In January, exports slid 3.3% and imports dived more than 19%, leaving a hefty trade surplus for the month. Economic data is light today with only the TD Ameritrade Investor Movement Index reporting and there is no substantial corporate results due.



Stock Stories:

Exxon Mobil (XOM) –Catch up? – The oil and energy giant has withstood the drop in crude prices much better than expected. Despite the 48% drop in oil prices over the last six months, Exxon has only fallen by 12.5% as many analysts believe their diversity negates the shocking dump in crude. The shares are down slightly ahead of the opening bell, as an analyst downgrade has pressure on the shares.



Major Economic Reports:

11:30 am CT – TD Ameritrade IMX



Notable Earnings:   

Monday – 2/9:

Before Market:  CAN, DO, HAS, L, SOHU

After Market:  CSC, RICK



Tuesday – 2/10:

Before Market:  CDW, CVS, DF, KKR, MWW, REGN, SAVE, HOT, UBS

After Market:  AKAM, GNW, LOCK, WU

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回复 43# mooncake

沁颍

Weekend Update

February 8, 2015

Investors shook off a strong Jobs Report on Friday to finish slightly lower. Concerns over Greece and the issues in Ukraine finally put some perspective into the markets. The trend of sell-offs on Fridays have become commonplace as traders take some risk off the table into the weekends. Despite this, stocks saw a solid rally for the week. Oil prices lifting put a bid into equities early in the week. The ECB threw a wrench into the rally midweek as they took away the waiver on funding from Greece. Higher oil prices again on Thursday and a better than expected jobless claims number also helped push stocks higher. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) finished the week up 3% and the Blue Chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average’s ($DJI) led gains up 3.8%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) finished higher by 2.4% and the small caps (RUT, IWM) rose 3.4%. All four major indices are now about flat for the year.



With equities up on the week, Option volatility took a dump last week. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell 17% and is sitting right at its 50-day moving average. Although the U.S. economic data and corporate news remains robust, there are cracks in the reports and geopolitical concerns are numerous. Many analysts believe the markets are topping out near all-time highs once again.  The jobs report showed solid gains and wage growth finally ticked up substantially, which have many positively optimistic.



Treasury yields were up sharply this past week as the positive move in stocks in the latter part had investors moving to ‘Risk-On’ mode. Surging  Oil (/CL) prices helped pressure Bonds prices which in turn causes yields to move higher.  The bottom line is that a somewhat improved labor market and the potential for Fed action early this year has led to higher Treasury rates. Despite a massive rise in inventories on Wednesday, Oil saw a solid rally this past week. Crude finished up 9% for the week but higher supply and lower demand should cap any more significant rallies in the near-term.



Although this upcoming week is relatively light on economic data, they are some key reports due. After Friday's better-than-expected employment report, traders will be looking to see if the consumer sector gains in other aspects.  The JOLTS report is posted Tuesday and the key question is whether increases in job openings continue.  Retail sales declined in December despite lower gasoline prices and auto sales remained volatile.  We may see more of the same for January on both factors but with the underlying trend still healthy.  Readings on the consumer mood have been relatively strong and on Friday we get an update for early February from the University of Michigan. Earnings season also continues and a few Blue Chips are due to slowly finish up the quarterly results.


Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday:

A.M. – CAN, DO, HAS, L, SOHU

P.M. –CSC, RICK



Tuesday:

A.M. – CDW, CVS, DF, KKR, MWW, REGN, SAVE, HOT, UBS

P.M.– AKAM, GNW, LOCK, WU



Wednesday:

A.M. – AOL, ARMH, FSRV, LO, MDLZ, MOS, OC, PEP, TWX, ZTS

P.M. – AMAT, BIDU, CTL, CAKE, CSCO, FEYE, MET, NTAP, NVDA, PNRA, TSLA, TSO, TRIP, Z



Thursday:

A.M. – AAP, ANR, APA, AVP, CS, DPS, IFF, JAH, SNI

P.M. – BYD, CBS, GRPN, KRFT, SFLY, SON, TIME, WWE



Friday:

A.M. –DTE, EXC, SJM, TRW, VF



Economic Releases (2/9 – 2/13):

Monday:

11:30 am CT – TD Ameritrade IMX

                                                                                                                                                                              

Tuesday:

Auto Sales

7:20 am CT – Fed’s Lacker Speaks

9:00 am CT– JOLTS

9:00 am CT – Wholesale Trade

12:00 pm CT – 3-year Note Auction Results

                                                                                                                                                                                                         

Wednesday:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

7:00 am CT – Fed’s Fisher Speaks

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 10-year Note Auction Results

1:00 pm CT – Treasury Budget



Thursday:

7:30 am CT – Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT – Retail Sales

9:00 am CT – Business Inventories

9:30 am CT – Natural gas Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 30-year Bond Auction Results

                                                                                                                                                                                                   

Friday:

7:30 am CT – Import & Exprt Prices

9:00 am CT – Consumer Sentiment

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回复 41# mooncake

沁颍

2/6/2015

Equities were strong throughout Thursdays session as Oil recovered from Wednesdays sell-off. Crude continues to gyrate and is positive today despite the massive build in inventories this week. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are flat to slightly higher as investors await the release of the monthly nonfarm payrolls report. Analysts are predicting that the economy added 230K nonfarm jobs and 223K private sector jobs last month. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 5.6%. Option volatility dumped on the stock rally yesterday and may see some consolidation today. The CBOE Volatility Index fell 8% and quick complacency may be taking hold again.



Treasuries have posted small gains in tandem with most overseas markets. The 10-year yield dipped to 1.80% from the 1.82% close yesterday. Volume was thin, however, with trading cautious ahead of the January employment report. Equities are modestly lower in the Euro-Zone amid ongoing uncertainties over Greece but China fell almost 2% overnight. There wasn't much news overnight to provide direction, and all eye are now on the jobs data, where risk is for a tepid report. The dovish Atlanta Fed president Lockhart will speak on the economy in the afternoon.



Stock Stories:

Twitter (TWTR) –Mediocre=Good? – The social media company reported earnings after the close yesterday and they were slightly higher than expected.  Despite the beat, the user base deceleration looks poised to continue, which is not a positive for a growth company. The shares are up 10% ahead of the opening bell, which is what the option markets had priced in.



LinkedIn (LNKD) – Buy anything? – The business social media company reported a slightly better than expected earnings report last night. The company sees Q1 revenue below estimates but FY15 to meet expectations.  Traders have bid the stock up 10% in the pre-market which seems too bullish compared to results and guidance.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – January Jobs Report

11:45 am CT – Fed’s Lockhart Speaks



Notable Earnings:   

Friday – 2/6:

Before Market:  AON, CBOE, FLIR, MCO, STRA

After Market:  N/A



Monday – 2/9:

Before Market:  CAN, DO, HAS, L, SOHU

After Market:  CSC, RICK

沁颍

2/5/2015

Equities dumped the last half hour of the day on Wednesday as the ECB pulled a waiver from Greece that allowed them to use their debt as collateral. Greece did not meet minimum credit rating requirements but used the waiver to access liquidity. Stocks were choppy throughout the session as lower oil attempted to send equities into the red. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are sharply higher as investors are shrugging off the news out of Greece as they believe its isolated from the rest of the Euro-Zone. Option volatility jumped at the end of the day on the Greece news. The CBOE Volatility Index rose over 5% and we may see a continuation of the recent volatile moves.



Treasuries are lower this morning and have pulled back sharply from overnight highs as stocks reversed into positive territory. Overseas, markets in Europe have rebounded from lows and are now only down slightly. Asian markets were off 1% on the heels of the news out of Greece. The Bank of England left interest rates unchanged this morning and maintained the size of its asset purchase program. Economic data due today include International Trade, Weekly Jobless Claims, Productivity long with weekly natural gas inventories. The MBA reported a 1.3% bounce in mortgage applications for the week ended January 30. The Fed’s Rosengren stated that a lower interest rate environment is still warranted at this point. Along with economic data, earnings announcements today include LinkedIn (LNKD), Twitter (TWTR), and Yelp (YELP).



Stock Stories:

Yum Brands (YUM) –It's Still fast food – The fast-casual restaurant company reported mixed earnings after the close yesterday.  KFC’s growth in China continues to recover but is still weighing on results. The company will rely on improvements as its guidance was optimistic going forward on their conference call. The shares are up slightly ahead of the opening bell.



Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR) – filtering – The single serve coffee giant posted lower than expected earnings results yesterday as both EPS and Revenue came in light. The company did not perform particularly well during a typical high-bar holiday season, which may signal more pain to come.  The stock is down over 7% in the pre-market.



Major Economic Reports:

4:00 am CT – Fed’s Rosengren Speaks

7:30 am CT – International Trade

7:30 am CT – Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT – Productivity and Costs

9:30 am CT – Natural gas Inventories



Notable Earnings:   

Thursday – 2/5:

Before Market:  BLL, CHTR, CI, CMI, DNKN, GRUB, ICE, KORS, NUS, PM, TEVA, USG, VLO

After Market:  ATVI, ATHN, BWLD, EXPE, GPRO, LNKD, LOCO, MCK, P, TWTR, YELP



Friday – 2/6:

Before Market:  AON, CBOE, FLIR, MCO, STRA

After Market:  N/A

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回复 38# mooncake

沁颍

2/4/2015

Equities saw another rally yesterday as optimism on Greece and a rise in Oil prices put a bid in global markets. The benchmark S&P 500 Index (SPX) was choppy to start the day but saw a solid rally into the close. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are modestly lower as lower oil prices are pressuring stocks. The Dow Industrials ($DJI, DIA) gained almost 2% yesterday led by energy names. Option volatility took a dump on the stock rally on Tuesday. The CBOE Volatility Index fell below $18 yesterday but is still just above its 200-day moving average. There is plenty of economic and corporate news due, which could provide another choppy session today.



U.S. Treasuries are slightly higher this morning and is attempting to reverse yesterday’s sell-off. As Bonds fell, the 10-year yield rose back to the 1.78% level. Overseas, equities are mixed with Japan's Nikkei posting a near 2% gain on the heels of the 1.76% surge in the Dow, while European bourses are mostly weaker. China's Central Bank cut the reserve rate requirement to boost lending and growth and to "keep the economy stable." Euro-zone retail sales posted a strong gain, while services PMI was revised up. The U.K. services PMI beat expectations. U.S. data will be of interest with the January ADP private payroll figures due, which will set the stage for Friday's jobs numbers. Other reports on the calendar include ISM services and the final PMI services numbers, along with weekly oil inventories. The MBA reported a 1.3% bounce in mortgage applications for the week ended January 30. There is Fed-speak from Powell and Mester today and earnings announcements include GM, Ralph Lauren (RL), Under Armour (UA), Whirlpool (WHR), Yum! (YUM), and Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR).



Stock Stories:

Chipotle (CMG) –Burrito Price Hike alert! – The fast-casual Mexican food company reported in-line earnings after the close yesterday.  The company stated that it may once again raise prices on some items. The shares are down over 5% ahead of the opening bell, which was the amount expected by the option market into the report.



Merck (MRK) – Vaccinated – The pharmaceutical giant posted mixed earnings results this morning as Revenue came in light. The company also lowered its FY15 guidance by following other corporations by blaming currency and foreign exchange.  The stock is down slightly in the pre-market.



Major Economic Reports:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications – up 1.3%

7:15 am CT – ADP Employment Report

8:45 am CT – PMI Services Index

9:00 am CT – ISM Non-Mfg. Index

9:00 am CT – Fed’s Powell Speaks

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

11:45 am CT – Fed’s Mester Speaks



Notable Earnings:   

Wednesday – 2/4:

Before Market:  AGN, CLX, CTSH, GM, HUM, MRK, RL, SMG, SNE, SO, TM, WHR

After Market:  ALL, CLR, HAIN,GMCR, SU, UA, WSTL, YUM



Thursday – 2/5:

Before Market:  BLL, CHTR, CI, CMI, DNKN, GRUB, ICE, KORS, NUS, PM, TEVA, USG, VLO

After Market:  ATVI, ATHN, BWLD, EXPE, GPRO, LNKD, LOCO, MCK, P, TWTR, YELP

沁颍

2/3/2015

Equities had quite a rollercoaster ride to start off the week yesterday. The benchmark S&P 500 Index (SPX) bounced off of morning lows near a key $1980 technical support level to finish the day in the black. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are modestly higher again as higher oil prices and encouraging news out of Greece put a  bid in stocks. Oil (/CL) is trying for its third positive session in a row and is now over $50 a barrel. Option volatility rose sharply yesterday morning as equities slid but fell throughout the rally in the afternoon. The CBOE Volatility Index rose above the $22 level yesterday but finished the session at $19.43. Factory orders are the only key piece of data out today but could show a fifth straight month of declines, which could provide some additional market volatility.



Overseas, European stocks are up over 1%, after Greece's new government proposed ending the confrontation with its creditors by swapping outstanding debt for new growth-linked bonds, running a permanent budget surplus and targeting wealthy tax-evaders. The Finance minister does not want a confrontation but is requesting a "menu of debt swaps," including two types of new bonds to replace European rescue loans and ECB-owned Greek bonds. U.S. Treasuries are falling sharply this morning. The 10-year yield is rising as bonds fall and is back above the 1.7% level. Today's data calendar is light but there will be a couple of speeches by Fed Governors today that could sway stocks and bonds.



Stock Stories:

Chipotle (CMG) – It’s just a Burrito!! – The fast-casual Mexican food company reports earnings tonight after the close.  The option market is pricing in a 6% move in the shares after the report. The shares are just below all-time highs and is slightly higher ahead of the opening bell.



Disney (DIS) – Not a small world – The entertainment company shares have slid from all-time highs over the last couple of weeks ahead of earnings tonight.  The stock is up 1% in the pre-market and the option market is expecting a move of $2.60 or 3% into the report.



Major Economic Reports:

Auto Sales

9:00 am CT – Fed’s Bullard Speaks

9:00 am CT– Factory Orders

11:45 am CT – Fed’s Kocherlakota Speaks



Notable Earnings:   

Tuesday – 2/3:

Before Market:  AET, ADM, AN, CME, ETN, GCI, JLL, NYT, UPS

After Market:  AFL, CHRW, CMG, DIS, GILD, TTWO



Wednesday – 2/4:

Before Market:  AGN, CLX, CTSH, GM, HUM, MRK, RL, SMG, SNE, SO, TM, WHR

After Market: ALL, CLR, HAIN,GMCR, SU, UA, WSTL, YUM