snowrider

12/10/2011

Comments are welcome!

snowrider

Since you post the chart every week, is it ok to have some comments about the last week's prediction, if it is good, and if not, how you adjusted to it, etc. I think that it will be much appreciated. Thanks.
...

yupek - Thanks for reading my weekly posts.  My prediction is based on the Elliott Wave principle that everyone can find tons of references on the web.  About last week's prediction, say SP for example, my preferred count is the purple line.  The market could have taken wave-II right away last Monday.  In that case, wave-I.4 would be a simple correction.  However, the market went flat for 3 more days, and wave-I.4 became a complex correction.  Last Thursday's sell-off could be the final kick of an irregular wave-II before wave-III's marching north.

It's hard to answer the question about how to adjust wave count.  If one wants to trade EW, at any moment, s/he needs to have a backup plan - that is the alternative count.  When the market does not move in favor of one's preferred count, the alternative count may become the preferred one.  Remember one thing ... anything can happen.  Therefore, trading with EW is a process of constantly thinking.  As I mentioned many times, it's just like playing chess with the market.  I don't mind to share my view every weekend because I will be happy if readers make money and also share their thoughts with me.  More people watch the game (of chess), more thoughtful the wave count would be.

snowrider

看这个图 偶是死定了 5555555555555

thirdwheel - 不會吧 多空現在都有機會 短期多頭上走 中期大空頭要來了 長期卻又是大多頭

snowrider

Thanks for comments. It is very helpful.
I just feel that Thursday's correction is too shallow. It is still possible that we have two legs down. So we may revisit Thursday's low or even go to 1220. I'm wondering why you think that we should go up from here.
...

yupek - Yes, it is possible (and anything is possible).  Please see the grey line alternative count.  Also I explained that as a micro alternative count in last Thursday's posts.  Say, if you have bot SP at Thursday's MOC, now your STP order can be placed 1 point right below last Thursday's low.  If the STP gets hit, you don't lose nothing.  We don't know if it will happen, but when an opportunity comes, one needs to evaluate if it is worth the risk to bet.  Say, if you did not enter the long of SP at Thursday's MOC, when do you want to enter?  After breaking out weekly high?  Not really a good idea because once it happens, where are you going to place your STP order?  It will be the same price (1 point right below last Thursday's low), but your risk will be much higher.

snowrider

12/17/2011

Comments are welcome!

snowrider

So the basic impression is: we will find a bottom soon (it may have been there, or a little lower than last week's low), and go up to pass the MA 200.

Just wonder why you ignore the possibility to break down from the current big triangle (breaking 1200).
...

yupek - I assume that you are talking about SP.  Yes, it could break "the current big triangle" (as I believe that anything is possible).  I did not mean to ignore that scenario, but I just did not want to draw a spiderweb on the chart to include all possible scenarios.  You might want to ask why I favor those up scenarios over down scenarios?  Last week's low is 50% pullback, and 1200 area is 61.8% pullback.  There is no reason to assume that the market is weakening and going down before some key fibonacci ratios stop working.

snowrider

Let's make an assumption that MM is going to push the market all the way up and penetrate 200DMA.  If you are the MM, what approach would you take to reach your goal?  Most people (not me because I don't watch any MA or indicator) believe that 200DMA is a resistance.  The least effort for MM to take over 200DMA is by gapping up.
1. If it was to gap from Wednesday's close to above 200DMA, it needed a huge jump.  In order to make it happen, a bigger and better news was needed BEFORE 9:30AM the market opened.  It did not happen, so MM take the second approach.
2. MM started pushing the market slowly up ... little by litte ... not too rush not to hurry.  Why?  If it surged too quick before 200DMA during the market hour, it would triigger heavey sell-off.  Then the market closed at day high.  OK, what next?  With the approach, the best time to push up above resistance is after hour.  That is what is happening now.  If everything is still in MM's control and our assuption is still correct, tomorrow morning when the market opens, it will open at above 12/08's high.  Nevertheless, MM will say ... mission completed ... 200DMA is taken over.

snowrider

12/25/2011

Happy Holidays!

Comments are welcome.

snowrider

1300 a must???
not4weak 发表于 2011-12-25 18:57

That is just a guess.  Nothing is definite.  EW always comes with alternative counts.

snowrider

Quote from ammo:

snow would you do this monthly ,i havent attempted to learn ew,but if this were wave 5,whats the longer /shorter than prev wave rule,or measured move,thanks and merry xmas

ammo - Thanks.  Elliott Wave Principle is a very powerful tool.  You'd better start learning that if you believe in Natural law.  To answer your question, "if this were wave 5", my convention would label it as abcde instead of 12345 because the wave from the low of 2009-03 did not show a healthy impulsive movement.  So, say, if we call it abcde, then your question is how high the final segment could go, right?  OK, you see the second up leg from 2010-07 1011 to 2011-05 1371 has time span of 10 months and price span of 360.  You can make a guess that the max target of the final up leg won't exceed the time A and the price B before a big correction because a rule says that the 3rd wave won't be the shortest.  The answer can be measured from the correction of the second up leg, and it will be:

A = 10 months + 2011-10 = 2012-08
B = 360 + 1075 = 1435

snowrider

為何有時 abcde 有時 12345?

這問題問得有深度! 妳知道波有古典學派(RN) 及後來加註的現代學派(RP) 那偶的是更進一層的加註(x氏加註) ... 這"x"是個placeholder of my last name ... 開玩笑 :) 偶是根本只想賺錢而不想出名 :) 所以偶們就稱之為現代雪派(SRP or SP, i.e., SnowRider Pi).

在偶的雪派中定義: 凡是不健康的浪(推動與否) 都不標示12345

關於妳highlight的紅線 它明顯是 3-3-9 (雪派中 3-3-5 的 variation) 所以標ABC

關於目前進行中的可以是 I II III IV V 亦可是 A B C D E 但目前偶們不知道市場將如何演進
為何都可能?  因為 標示中的 A 是個漂亮健康的推動所以可以是個 I
目前在進行的 可能是 C 亦可能是 III
是否市場會衰竭而形成 Ending Diagonal (ABCDE)?  偶們要看這 C 及 D 怎麼走

妳的假設(3-3-3)恢常好
那是一種有可能的算法
謝謝分享

snowrider

This thread is closed. Please visit the new one:

http://www.yayabay.com/forum/thread-183033-1-1.html