snowrider

This is a discussion from some other forum:

Since you ask for comments here are mine:
I find Elliot Wave absolutely useless as a predictive tool. ...

Yes, I agree with you that EW is a predictive tool.  Don't you think that all FA or TA approaches are predictive based what has happened?  For example, when a market retreats from over-bought back to some MA, say 4/9/18, we might assume that if the MA is still moving up and then it will be a good opportunity to buy dip.  That buy-dip is based on the prediction that the market will go up again.  If one does not know how to use MA, MA becomes "useless".  Same as EW, in order to utilize EW to trade, one needs to understand EW first.

... It is imprecise both in terms of price and time and is always subject to more than one (often contrary) interpretation. How often do wave counts have to be re-numbered?
...

Good point!  Talking about being imprecise, EW is one of the tools that provides the most precise predition - both in price and time.  (Another tool is W.D. Gann.  Cycle is kind of OK in time prediction but it has no idea about price.)  A wave segment's movement involves price action/behavior and time needed to travel.  Can you tell me something that can predict price and time?  Talking about renumberring the wave, it has to be done whenever it is needed.  It's like when you are driving and hit a red light, the red light tells you that you got to stop, would you stop?  As long as there is no red light (wave behavior changing), there is no need to stop (to renumber the wave count).

...
I can see that there is some relevance in using it as a descriptive tool regarding what has happened, but do not see how it is possible to use it to make correct investment or trading decisions....
...

Again, a tool is useful when you know how to use it.  Some friends use MA only and make good profit from it.  About using EW for trading, EW can provide a precise target (both in time and price) for a wave movement for one to take profit (or establish position), and also EW can tell one when the existing position needs to quit, if the current wave count is invalid, so people can easily place a stop order at some meaningful point (with minimal risk).

snowrider

This is a discussion from some other forum:

good effort

realy i thank you

could you please just explain to me what did you mean by

a , b , c , d in first chart !

as i know there is no D in Elliott Wave Principle

Do you  mean it is impuls ?

thank you again

To answer your question, yes, the principle does have wave-d and wave-e.  They occurs mostly in triangles, includuing Ending Diagonal (wave-5),  Contracting Triangles (wave-4/2), and Expanding Triangles (wave-4/2).  No they are not impulsive waves.  For the Ending Diagonal (wave-5), the market is weakening so there is not enough power to form the 3rd implusive wave in each segment.

snowrider

07/23/2011

Comments are welcome!

snowrider

07/27/2011

Comments are welcome!

snowrider

07/30/2011

We have completed a monthly bar for July this weekend, so my weekly post is monthly chart instead of daily one.  Comments are welcome!

snowrider

This is a discussion from some other forum:

金子到 1200？ that is impossible

If you trade FX, you know that anything is possible.  When Hunt brothers cornered silver and the market surged to $50, nobody believed that silver would eventually collapsed to $5.  The following are two posts that I saw gold to reach $1400 in 2010 when it was $800-$900 in 2009:

http://groups.wenxuecity.com/discussion.php?gid=921&pid=46979
http://groups.wenxuecity.com/discussion.php?gid=921&pid=49654

I firmly believe that everything is conspiracy and the market is just a tool for insiders to collect money from the innocent general puplic.

snowrider

This is a discussion from some other forum:

黄金的价格是有基本面支持的 ...  现在的买家跟hunter 坐庄银子时候是不一样的。
...

I agree what you say as the status quo but not the future.  You've seen Taichi diagram, right?  So called 物極必反 or 強弩之末 explains that no tree can reach the moon.  I don't rule out gold's further going up to double, triple, ... etc. the current value, but the wave count tells me that a big *correction* is due.  Note that I am saying *correction* because in the wave's spiral, a correction implies future growth because it is not a self destruction.

snowrider

This is a discussion from some other forum:

... 但那将是买实物黄金的好机会。 把手上的纸币换成实物肯定不会错的。

That could be the case but is not necessarily true.  When gold hit $850 (spot) record high on 01/21/1980 in London at PM Fix (倫敦金下午定盤價), everyone thought that it would continue going up infinitely.  Then the truth was that the next bull market came after almost 20 years of tumbling down till 1999 August when price was around $250.  I really don't know if a huge pulling back is a good opportunity or a hot potato until the wave structure tells me.

snowrider

08/07/2011

Comments are welcome!

snowrider

有新的路线图更新吗？准确率很高啊，就看spy能不能真的上1400了
moonpig 发表于 2011-8-7 14:09

moonpig - Thanks for checking out my posts.  I thought I have been posting and talking to myself.  It seemed nobody paid any attention on my posts.  Thanks for kind words.  We will see if a short term bull can be formed or not ...

snowrider

08/13/2011

Comments are welcome!

snowrider

I just registered an account with hutong.  I will mirror my posts there.  TMD ... how come it takes so long and my account is still pending there???

snowrider

This is a discussion from some other forum:

you label the down trend as abc, so the primary trend is up? can you explain the big picture?

The big picture is:
[[D]].[C].E has completed, and now it's in the progress of [[E]].[A].C.
An alternative count is:
[[V]].[C].E has completed, and now it's in the progress of [[V]].[D].C.

snowrider

This is a discussion from some other forum:

当[[D]].[C].E 完成后 ...

Here is my count for SP's big picture:

Basically, I treat the 2008-09's big collapse as a [[C]] inside a flat correction starting from 2003:
March-2000 - started this huge flat
December-2002 - [[A]] completed
December-2007 - [[B]] completed
March-2009 - [[C]] completed
OK ... from then there are two possibilities:
1. June-2011 - [[D]] completed (which means a huge [[E]] is on the way), or
2. June-2011 - [[V]].[C] completed (which means an ending [[V]] is on the way), and now it's just close to the end of [[V]].[D]

I don't consider the [[D]].[C].E is a "整个反弹浪" of "08年的下跌5浪" because it has gone too high.

第一张图标志的是A-B-C，后面还应该有反弹浪-D和下跌驱动浪-E的出现

If my count is correct then the answer is NO because it will be the ending of [A] inside a huge [[E]].

那么，比较一下下面的图，两者在08年迄今的范围里，应没有什么分别吧？

They are very similar.  One of the major differences is that I label 3-segment waves or unhealty impulsive waves by using abcde instead of 12345.

snowrider

This is a discussion from some other forum:

如果没看错，结论是：
现在刚走完[[[IV]]].[[E]].[A].C，接着走[[[IV]]].[[E]].[B]，最后在前期高点以及费波纳契的61.8%处完成[[[IV]]].[[E]].[C]。至此，一轮新牛市再次展开。

Yes, [[[IV]]].[[E]].[A].C is about to end (but not done yet).  Yes, "接着走[[[IV]]].[[E]].[B]".  Yes, "最后在前期高点以及费波纳契的 ... %处完成[[[IV]]].[[E]].[C]".  The only thing is that the "..." would not necessarily be "61.8%".  It will eventually depend on how the market acts.  I am looking at anywhere from 950 to 830 ... where it will be an ideal place to do all-in.