oldhorse

明天和周三盘前er
all bet long
ulti
tmh
slca
hurn
pbi
bwld
oldhorse 发表于 2014-7-28 21:25

remove tmh.

oldhorse

非常郁闷的一天：

昨天花了三个小时，筛选了6只股票，还差一个没报告，目前都对（slca，ulti，exam，hurn,bwld），beat both lines .
只是bwld 对了，股价却跌的一塌糊涂。
真的想不通。
明天小结一下，目前的系统work，确实能筛选出beat er 的股票，问题是怎样能避免大跌的股票。想bwld这样一跌， 把别的盈利吃掉不少。
hlf是我的错，这个事前就知道，但是毕竟这只股票没有miss过。


all bet long
ulti
exam
slca
hurn
pbi
bwld

oldhorse

刚看到bwld是因为
Projections Disappoint
这是赌er最大的问题，guidance is more important than beat。
i think bwld is a bit low balling

oldhorse

谢谢两位鼓励， bwld跌得我心灰意冷。

oldhorse

bet long
akam
asgn

oldhorse

bet long
akam
asgn
oldhorse 发表于 2014-7-30 09:14

akam, beat both lines,but price is dropping.
eps 0.58 vs est,055
rev 476m vs est 473m

asgn beat eps,miss revenue
eps 0.56 vs est 0.52
rev: 468m vs est 471m
this one has no after market yet, now know the move.

oldhorse

AKAM 属蓝筹性质很难POP UP， 做后市容易。
tianfangye 发表于 2014-7-30 16:28

    盘后跌很多，不明白。
收摊不赌了，水平不中，只能筛出beat，大约猜出price move， 但是不能算出大跌的股票，一旦发生，其他赌胜的利润毁于一旦，不值得。
明天最后一个被迫赌的，tsla， 有股票不得不赌。

oldhorse

总结一下（er前收盘对第二天收盘）：
FB，71.29，vs 74。98   gain 5.17%
cmg 589.93 vs  659.77 gain  11.84%
deck 85.23 vs 90.。50 gain 6.18%
sbux 80.45 vs 78.74    loss -2.13%

average =+5.265%

second batch
hlf close before er 67.48 after er close 58.35 loss =-13.51%
osk close before er 53.19 after er close 45.84 loss =-13.82%
idti close before er 13.53 after er close 15 gain =10.86%

average = -5.49%

the third batch
ulti close before er 133.83 after er close 143.76 gain =7.42%
exam close before er 32.41 after er close 35.75 gain =10.31%
slca  close before er 60.28 after er close 57.63 loss = -4.39%
hurn close before er 65.91 after er close 62.36 loss = -5.38%
pbi close before er 26.35 after er close 27.53 gain = 4.48%
bwld close before er 167.15 after er close 145.17 loss = -13.15%
average = -0.11%

so far
total average: -0.11%
correct rate: 54%
还有三个，akam 和asgn 已经报告了，等明天数据。
tsla 等后天。
目前结果不太值得，等于白玩，配上手续费。
猜对beat的概率高，85% 只有两个miss了，但是price move不理想。
特别是超过10% 跌幅的，这个最要命。
tsla结束后，收摊。

oldhorse

ok,last try

long,all tomorrow after close

tsla
data (ramp up too much, price move might not be ideal)
beat (ramp up too much, price move might not be ideal)
arrs (ramp up too much, price move might not be ideal)
spwr

oldhorse

more confidence on tsla now.
tsla should beat eps,but may miss revenue due to battery shortage which would be resolved next year.
so overall, the price should go up.

oldhorse

回复  oldhorse

It all depends on how many TSLA they sold in the quarter. If sold > 8000 ---> BAO ...
我想飞 发表于 2014-7-31 00:08

thanks a lot, makes sense.