沁颍

9/8/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are slightly lower to start the week. Last week saw stocks settle at all-time highs once again as the S&P 500 Index (SPX) finished at $2007. It was the 5thstraight week of gains for the major indices. Investors shrugged off the weak jobs data on Friday and economic data overseas continues to struggle.  The CBOE volatility Index (VIX) sits near support at the $12 level. The President is scheduled to lay out plans this week for expanding the U.S. military campaign against ISIS including possible airstrikes in Syria. This, along with some hiccups last week as investors digested the ECB news, may provide some additional volatility.



Treasuries are a little higher, in contrast to weakness in European sovereigns, where yields are slightly higher. There's some ongoing spillover from the disappointing U.S. jobs report on Friday, and mixed comments from policymakers. Overseas news was mixed, with German exports rising to record levels, while Chinese imports weaker. Also out of Europe, the Investor Sentiment measure fell into negative territory. There's a light calendar in the U.S. today with only the TD Ameritrade Investor Momentum Index due. Supply headlines this week with the $61 B in coupon auctions, beginning with the $27 B 3-year note sale Tuesday.



Stock Stories:

Campbell Soup (CPB) – No Soup For You! –The soup giant posted in-line EPS this morning but missed on Revenue. The company lowered its FY15 guidance and sees long-term targets for sales and earnings below expectations. The stock is down over 3% ahead of the opening bell.



Boeing (BA) – Flying High – The aircraft-maker will announce a major deal this morning with the European discount carrier Ryanair (RYAAY). The deal is reportedly worth over $10B and for 100 new planes. BA shares are up slightly in the pre-market.



Major Economic Reports:

11:30 am CT– TD Ameritrade IMX ($IMX)



Notable Earnings:   

Monday – 9/8:

Before Market:  CPB, GFN

After Market:  CASY, PBY



Tuesday – 9/9:

Before Market:  BKS, RSH, TITN

After Market:  KKD, PANW, PPHM, SAIC

沁颍

9/9/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are suggesting another quiet open as they trade relatively flat. There is little to look forward to as far as a catalyst, but investors will be watching the highly anticipated launch of Apple's (AAPL) new products at noon CT .Meanwhile, little market moving economic data is expected to be announced today.  Yesterday saw another mid-day sell-off but stocks rallied back to only finish slightly lower. The U.S. Dollar spiked higher again yesterday and should add some needed volatility to the market. The CBOE volatility Index (VIX) rose 4% but remains below the $13 level.



Bonds are sharply weaker globally in a heavy volume trade. Data was on the bearish side for Treasuries. The German Bund 10-year yield is over 5 bps higher and back above the 1.0% mark. The 10-year Treasury yield is up again and is now back to 2.5%, the highest since early August and above its 50-day moving average. There are some fears of a hawkish language change at next week's FOMC meeting as economic data improves. In overnight news, the German Finance Minister warned cheap money can't buy economic growth and warned governments not to expect the ECB to underpin growth. In the U.S. today, Treasury supply gets underway with the $27 B 3-year note sale kicking off the week’s $61 B in coupon auctions. Data is light, but important with the July JOLTS report on tap as it's one of 9 key employment indicators on Yellen's dashboard. Fed Governor Tarullo will testify before the Senate Banking Committee, but Fed-speak will be going dark ahead of the September 16, 17 policy meeting.



Stock Stories:

McDonald’s (MCD) – Grimaced! – The Fast-Food giant posted global sales that fell 3.7%.  August US comparable sales were down 2.8% and Europe comparable sales fell 0.7%.  Global sales dropped 14.5% as the company missed badly and the shares down ahead of the opening bell.



General Mills (GIS) – One scoop – The cereal giant agrees to buy Annie’s (BNNY) a leading U.S. producer of branded organic and natural food products for $46 a share. The news has other natural food product shares higher as investors continue to focus the next big acquisition.



Major Economic Reports:

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales

9:00 am CT – JOLTS

11:30 am CT – Fed’s Tarullo Speaks

12:00 pm CT – 3-year Note Auction Results

12:00 pm CT - APPLE Product Launch Presentation



Notable Earnings:   

Tuesday – 9/9:

Before Market:  BKS, RSH, TITN

After Market:  KKD, PANW, PPHM, SAIC



Wednesday – 9/10:

Before Market:  MANU, VSR

After Market:  FIVE, MW, RH

沁颍

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沁颍

9/10/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading relatively flat to slightly lower this morning after a wild ride during Tuesday's session. The highly anticipated launch of Apple's (AAPL) new products yesterday had markets whipsawing but they finished the session on a downturn. Although a reversal in AAPL shares may have negatively affected stocks overall, the main culprit continues to be interest rate concerns and the Fed. Rising yields may reflect a slight re-pricing of the first rate hike, with some believing that markets had priced in a later hike than the Fed is suggesting. The U.S. Dollar continues to strengthen which has recently put further pressure on commodities. The CBOE volatility Index (VIX) rose 6.6% on Tuesday’s sell-off and is beginning to show some signs of sustained strength. We may see more gains for the ‘Fear Gauge’ if interest rates continue to rise and stocks fall further.



U.S. Treasuries are weaker this morning and have trended lower over the last 10 days. The 10-year Treasury yield is up and is now above 2.52% and is now through some recent resistance on the upside. There is a $21B auction of 10-year Notes today at Noon CT and may provide some additional volatility for Treasuries. Stocks globally headed lower following the post-Apple event U.S. slide yesterday afternoon, but Europe has now bounced back somewhat. Data is light today so focus will remain on corporate news and the Treasury market. Investors have also begun to look to next week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting for fresh guidance on rates.



Stock Stories:

Apple (AAPL) – There was news?! – The tech product maker released plans for new phones, a payment system and a watch at its event yesterday…if you hadn’t heard.   Analysts are mixed in price target raises for the stock and upgrades/downgrades this morning after digesting the news.  The shares were highly volatile yesterday but finished the session flat which is where they are ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications – Down 7.2% for week

9:00 am CT – Wholesale Trade

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 10-year Note Auction Results



Notable Earnings:   

Wednesday – 9/10:

Before Market:  MANU, VSR

After Market:  FIVE, MW, RH



Thursday – 9/11:

Before Market:  KR, LE, LULU

After Market:  NQ, ULTA

沁颍

9/11/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading lower this morning ahead of the weekly jobless claims report. Initial claims are expected to come in 300K and there are expected to be 2.49M continuing claims. Yesterday saw modest gains after stocks broke lower early in the morning. Support near $1980 in the benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) was tested early in the session but equities immediately bounced off this area. Speaking on the eve of the anniversary of September 11 terrorist attacks, the President last night discussed the strategy that the U.S. will utilize against ISIL. It looks like geopolitical risks along with mediocre economic data is beginning to show some additional volatility for markets.The CBOE volatility Index (VIX) dropped 4% yesterday but should show some strength today if stocks remain weak today.



U.S. Treasuries are posting small gains in contrast to weaker Asian debt markets, while Europe's little rally is also failing. The 10-year yield has edged down to 2.52% but is holding support above the 2.5% level. Equities are mostly lower, with the exception of the Nikkei, even as Scottish independence concerns have faded slightly. In overnight news, German inflation was confirmed at a subdued 0.8% year over year pace. The U.K. house price index slid to 40%, the lowest in a year. In the U.S. today, there's more supply today with the 30-year Bond auction on tap. The data calendar is light with just initial jobless claims and the August Treasury budget.



Stock Stories:

Lululemon (LULU) – No Pants! – The athletic apparel-maker posted better than expected earnings this morning, albeit on lowered estimates.  The guidance for Q3 and FY14 is relatively in-line with analyst expectations but the shares are up 14% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 30-year Bond Auction Results

1:00 pm CT – Treasury Budget



Notable Earnings:   

Thursday – 9/11

Before Market:  KR, LULU

After Market:  NQ, ULTA



Friday – 9/12:

Before Market:  DRI, SNOW

After Market:  N/A

沁颍

9/12/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading relatively flat again this morning. Volume is light ahead of the advance retail sales report for August which is due out at 7:30 am CT. Analysts are predicting that sales rose 0.6% overall ,while the core reading which excludes autos and gas is expected to have risen 0.3%. We saw another sharp reversal in equities yesterday as traders once again bought early weakness. Although markets remain near all-time highs and headwinds remain, investors continue to look to riskier assets such as stocks. The CBOE volatility Index (VIX) finished the session flat after rising sharply in the morning.



Weakness in global bonds spilled over to Treasuries and the 10-year yield traded up to 2.57%. The German Bund is holding over the 1.0% level for a third straight session. Equities are little changed and mixed both overseas and in the U.S.  Worries the FOMC will drop its "considerable time" language at next week's meeting continues to weigh on the markets, along with disappointment over the lack of QE from the ECB. In overnight news, the "No's" are still in the lead in the latest Scottish referendum poll. Euro-zone production was stronger than expected. Chinese lending data was weaker than expected. And, new sanctions take hold on Russia. In the U.S., the data calendar is heavy with August retail sales headlining, while trade prices, business inventories and the preliminary consumer sentiment index are also due.



Stock Stories:

Darden (DRI) – Suburbia eats – The casual restaurant chain company posted in-line quarterly results this morning.  A turnaround plan for its Olive Garden restaurants and a sales jump at its Longhorn Steakhouse has the shares are up 2% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Retail Sales

7:30 am CT – Import and Export Prices

8:55 am CT – Consumer Sentiment

9:00 am CT – Business Inventories



Notable Earnings:   

Friday – 9/12

Before Market:  DRI, SNOW

After Market:  N/A



Monday – 9/15:

Before Market:  COCO

After Market:  N/A

沁颍

Weekend Update

Equities had modest loses this past week with the S&P 500 (SPX) pulling back from all-time highs.  Economic news was mostly favorable but stocks dipped on corporate news and Fed worries. Equities began the week mixed but fell on Tuesday after Apple’s (AAPL) product launch and rising interest rates. We saw a solid reversal in stocks and AAPL on Wednesday but Thursday’s weak jobless claims data put a halt to gains. The week finished down sharply on Friday as positive Retail Sales raised bets that the Fed will rates earlier in 2015 than later. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) led the major indices lower off 1.1% and the Blue Chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average’s ($DJI) fell 0.9%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) was down only 0.3% as gains in Apple (AAPL) put support in the sector.  The small caps (RUT, IWM) fell only 0.8% but certainly were the most volatile for the week.



Option volatility firmed up this past week and is finally beginning to reflect the global risks in the markets. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose 10% but remains in historically low territory. Option premium should begin to rise into the Fed meeting this week and hopefully we will get stocks to bounce around a bit. Oil futures (/CL) hit their lowest levels in over a year on Thursday morning but bounced off the $90 level sharply. Decreasing fuel costs should help consumer spending going forward as inventories and supply have been increasing.  



Bonds prices were relatively stable for the week until Friday’s sharp drop. Conversely, Treasury rates rose to their highest level in two months. The 10-year yield sits at 2.61% and is showing signs that the Fed may raise rates sooner than expected. The upcoming FOMC meeting this upcoming week may induce the Fed to remove a reference to interest rates staying low for a "considerable time" after it ends bond buying



News for the upcoming week is wide ranging. The Fed posts its decision Wednesday along with updated forecasts. Both manufacturing and housing have shown some renewed vigor. Regional surveys have not always been in line with national data on manufacturing. The New York Fed's survey has been soft and posts Monday for September while national industrial production hits the wires the same day. Housing has shown improvement with a jump in July starts and with a rise in the NAHB housing market index. But mortgage purchase applications have slipped and are at low levels. Thursday's housing starts report will be an important update on this sector.


Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday:

A.M. – COCO

P.M. – ALOG



Tuesday:

A.M. – FDS

P.M.– ADBE, APOG



Wednesday:

A.M. – CBRL, FDX, GIS, LEN

P.M. – PIR, UNFI



Thursday:

A.M. – CAG, IHS, RAD, SCHL

P.M. – ORCL, RHT, TIBX



Friday:

A.M. – N/A



Economic Releases (9/15 – 9/19):

Monday:

7:30 am CT– Empire State Mfg. Survey

8:15 am CT –Industrial Production

                                                                                                                                                                                

Tuesday:

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales

7:30 am CT – Producer Price Index (PPI)

8:00 am CT – Treasury International Capital

                                                                                                                                                                                                              

Wednesday:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

7:30 am CT – Consumer Price Index (CPI)

9:00 am CT – Housing Market Index

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

1:00 pm CT – FOMC Meeting Announcement & Forecast

1:30 pm CT – Fed Chair Yellen’s Press Conference



Thursday:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT – Housing Starts

9:00 am CT – Philly Fed Survey

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories

                                                                                                                                                                                                        

Friday:

9:00 am CT – Leading Economic Indicators

沁颍

9/15/2014
U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading slightly lower as investors hope the market can get back to its winning ways. Last week the market posted its first losing week in the past six. Investors will remain anxious ahead of the Fed’s policy statement on Wednesday. There have been indications that the central bank could eliminate its assertion that interest rates will remain low for a long time. The market will also have to look past Chinese industrial output data, which came in well below expectations. The CBOE volatility Index (VIX) is showing some strength and should firm up ahead of the economic and Fed policy updates this week.



Treasuries corrected slightly higher in light trading overnight after major losses last week, as the markets await several key events. The 10-year yield slipped to 2.59% after settling above 2.6% last week for the first time in months. Overseas bond markets are mixed with core sovereign yields modestly lower too with the German Bund holding steady above 1%. Providing some support for bonds were disappointing production and loan data from China and the OECD's cut in growth forecasts for the largest developed economies. Key factors this week include the Wednesday's FOMC decision where there's significant risk of a hawkish change in forward guidance. As for the Scottish referendum, the "No's" have a fractional lead in surveys. The U.S. calendar is thin today with August industrial production and the September Empire State index.



Stock Stories:

Apple (AAPL) – Here come the Bulls – The Company’s stock historically rises after a product announcement and this time is no different so far.  The lemmings are lining up as analysts continue to pump up the shares. The stock isup slightly ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT– Empire State Mfg. Survey

8:15 am CT –Industrial Production



Notable Earnings:   

Monday – 9/15

Before Market:  COCO

After Market:  ALOG



Tuesday – 9/16:

Before Market:  FDS

After Market:  ADBE, APOG

沁颍

9/16/2014

The benchmark S&P 500 Index (SPX) held the $1980 level yesterday as stocks fell to start the week. We will most likely test this support area again today as U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading slightly lower ahead of the opening bell. We had a big divergence in sectors yesterday as the tech-heavy Nasdaq (QQQ) and small caps (RUT, IWM) were down sharply while the Dow Jones Industrials (DIA) were positive. Many market-watchers were pointing to rotation ahead of the Alibaba (BABA) IPO this week. Are investors selling other high-flying tech and growth stocks to buy Alibaba shares? The uncertainty in stocks had option volatility moving higher yesterday. The CBOE volatility Index (VIX) was up 6% on Monday and is higher by 25% in the last few weeks.



A continued turnaround in U.S. Treasuries is occurring again today. Bonds are firming up ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting after falling sharply last week. The 10-year yield settled back under 2.6% yesterday and is near 2.55% this morning. Asian markets were mostly lower overnight as China Mobile fell sharply on lack of clarity on a release date for the new Apple (AAPL) iPhone. A disappointing German economic sentiment survey and worries on the Scottish referendum put downward pressure on European shares. The U.S. calendar is thin today with only the Producer Price Index (PPI) due to sway markets. Most focus will be on the Fed and their announcement tomorrow afternoon.



Stock Stories:

Tesla Motors (TSLA) – Out of Juice? – The electric car maker’s stock fell 9% yesterday after an analyst agreed with the founder that the shares are over-priced. This and a possible rotation out of recent high-flyers ahead of the Alibaba (BABA) IPO put downward pressure on multiple names. The stock isup slightly ahead of the opening bell as traders try to support the shares.



Major Economic Reports:

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales

7:30 am CT – Producer Price Index (PPI)

8:00 am CT – Treasury International Capital

FOMC Meeting Begins



Notable Earnings:   

Tuesday – 9/16

Before Market:  FDS

After Market:  ADBE, APOG



Wednesday – 9/17:

Before Market:  CBRL, FDX, GIS, LEN

After Market:  PIR, UNFI

沁颍

9/17/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading relatively flat to slightly lower following yesterday’s big advance. Stocks fell early in yesterday’s session and then snapped into positive territory mid-morning on no news. Yesterday’s move was attributed to rumors that the Fed would maintain its accommodative stance in its statement expected to be released later today. The two day FOMC meeting will conclude this afternoon, and the committee's statement will be released at 1:00 pm CT.  Option volatility was initially moving higher yesterday but dropped like a stone on the rally. The CBOE volatility Index (VIX) dropped 10% on Tuesday and is reflecting little concern on today’s announcement from the Fed.



Treasuries are a little higher, in tandem with gains in global bonds, as the markets benefit from talk yesterday the FOMC might retain its "considerable time" phrase. There are also rumors floating of a liquidity injection by the People’s Bank of China to the 5 major Chinese banks. The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen to 2.56% but still has support above 2.5%. European shares are higher following an upward revision to August HICP inflation and despite a cautious tone on growth from the BoE Minutes. It's all about the nuances in the FOMC statement today. Data will be of interest, especially as the calendar includes August CPI stats, which is an important indicator for the Fed. The September NAHB homebuilder survey is also due along with weekly oil inventories. The MBA reported mortgage implications rebounded 7.9% for the week ended September 12.



Stock Stories:

FedEx (FDX) – Delivered – The delivery company reported better than expected quarterly results this morning. The company is off to an outstanding start in fiscal 2015, thanks to very strong performance at FedEx Ground, solid volume and revenue increases at FedEx Freight. The stock isup 1.5% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications – Up 7.9%

7:30 am CT – Consumer Price Index (CPI)

9:00 am CT – Housing Market Index

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

1:00 pm CT – FOMC Meeting Announcement & Forecast

1:30 pm CT – Fed Chair Yellen’s Press Conference



Notable Earnings:   

Wednesday – 9/17

Before Market:  CBRL, FDX, GIS, LEN

After Market:  PIR, UNFI



Thursday – 9/18:

Before Market:  CAG, IHS, RAD, SCHL

After Market:  ORCL, RHT, TIBX

沁颍

9/18/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading higher as investors digest the news from the FOMC. Stocks are also getting a boost from news on more easing out of China. China’s Central Bank announced an injection of cash into the Country’s five biggest banks and they cut short-term borrowing costs. The FOMC stuck to its mantra of low interest rates and propping up stocks.  Option volatility once again showed weakness but equities did bounce around quite a bit after the Fed announcement. The CBOE volatility Index (VIX) should continue to fall if stocks remain in positive territory. Tomorrow is September options expiration and we can’t remember the last monthly cycle where stocks declined.



Treasuries are a little lower, as the downward trend continues.The 10-year yield is hovering around 2.60% this morning. Core bonds overseas are weaker in spillover from decline in Treasuries yesterday. Stocks are trading well, however, underpinned by the FOMC's low rate for a "considerable time" promise. Now the focus is on the Scottish referendum, where the British Pound is holding firm amid expectations the "No's" will prevail, though it's a close vote. On the economic front, it's a busy calendar. Initial jobless claims for the week ended September 13 (coincides with the BLS survey week), August housing starts, and September Philly Fed data are due. Additionally, the BLS will release its preliminary benchmark employment revisions, which may prove important.



Stock Stories:

Apple (AAPL) – Reviewed – The company is piling up positive reviews for its long-awaited new iPhone. One review claimed it was sexy – which is ridiculous but sells magazines or papers. The shares of AAPL have stalled out on its recent rally but may pick up as sales numbers are reported. The stock is up 1% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT – Housing Starts

9:00 am CT – Philly Fed Survey

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories



Notable Earnings:   

Thursday – 9/18

Before Market:  CAG, IHS, RAD, SCHL

After Market:  ORCL, RHT, TIBX



Friday – 9/19:

Before Market:  N/A

After Market:  N/A

沁颍

9/19/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading higher as investors are taking the Scottish vote to remain in the U.K as a sign of bullishness. The largest IPO in history (Alibaba-BABA) also has traders optimistic this morning. Yesterday saw equities rise yet again as improving Jobless Claims numbers put a bid in the market. The FOMC stuck to its plan of low interest rates and many analysts are raising their estimates for stocks this year.  Option volatility fell again yesterday as stocks were in positive territory all day. The CBOE volatility Index (VIX) is near recent support levels around $12 so we could see some stabilization here.



Treasuries are higher which is a reversal from recent weakness.The 10-year yield rose above  2.60% yesterday and is at multi-month highs. European and Asian stocks were both higher on the news out of Scotland and continued easing by Central Banks. On the economic front, it's a light calendar with just leading economic indicators due. Today is quadruple witching for stocks and options and may provide some additional volatility in the markets.



Stock Stories:

Alibaba (BABA) – IPOing – The online mass market site out of China makes its debut today.  The shares are supposedly opening near $68 a share but demand should be strong. Based on valuation to comparable growth companies, the stock will be undervalued below $100.



Major Economic Reports:

9:00 am CT – Leading Economic Indicators



Notable Earnings:   



Friday – 9/19

Before Market:  N/A

After Market:  N/A



Monday – 9/22:

Before Market:  AZO

After Market:  N/A

沁颍

Weekend Update

Equities were mixed this past week as specific sectors out-performed others. The Fed policy decision came in much as expected and gave the stock Bulls what they wanted. At mid-week, stocks advanced with investors reassured after the Federal Reserve maintained the words "considerable time" in its policy statement regarding keeping rates low after the end of taper. Also, equity traders saw as favorable the Fed's comments that the economy is expanding at a moderate pace and inflation is below its goal. Thursday, both the Dow Jones industrials and S&P closed at new record highs due to continued momentum from the Fed decision and a sharp decline in initial jobless claims. Friday, stocks ended mixed after initially showing notable gains after the "no" vote on Scottish independence. Helping support stocks was a very favorable IPO by Alibaba (BABA) while downdraft came from the energy sector. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) finished the week up 1.3% and the Blue Chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average’s ($DJI) led the gains jumping 1.7%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) lagged the safety of large caps as they finished the week up a modest 0.3%.  The small caps (RUT, IWM) fell a sharp 1.2% as the historical market-leading indicator may be forecasting a pause in the rally.



Option volatility fell this week as equities remained bid up for the most part. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell 9% and is once again at multiyear support at low levels. We have typically seen the ‘Fear Gauge’ bounce off the $12 level repeatedly and hopefully we will see this happen again. Oil futures (/CL) were relatively flat for the week after hitting multi-month lows last week. OPEC stated they may cut output if energy prices continue to slide.



Bonds prices were flat for the week until Friday’s spike higher. Conversely, Treasury rates fell from two month highs. The 10-year yield broke through the 2.6% level but settled Friday at 2.58%. The FOMC left policy rates are unchanged. Also, taper remains on schedule to end with the October FOMC meeting. From this meeting, bond purchases were reduced by another $10 billion, starting in October, leaving just $15 billion per month. Guidance retained "considerable time" language for when the first rate increase follows the end of taper.



This week's focus is on housing and manufacturing. Last week's housing starts report notably disappointed and existing and new home sales will garner attention. Also, home price appreciation has softened and the FHFA home price report will add detail on strength in housing demand. Recent manufacturing data have been mixed with August industrial production soft but Empire State and Philly Fed for September somewhat positive. This week's durables report may add clarity regarding momentum at the national level and the GDP is due also.


Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday:

A.M. – AZO

P.M. – ASNA



Tuesday:

A.M. – CCL, KMX, USAT

P.M.– BBBY, SCS



Wednesday:

A.M. – CAN, KBH, PAYX, MTN

P.M. – FUL, JBL



Thursday:

A.M. – OMN, SCHL

P.M. – DMND, MU, NKE



Friday:

A.M. – BBRY, FINL



Economic Releases (9/22 – 9/26):

Monday:

7:30 am CT– Chicago Fed National Activity Index

9:00 am CT –Existing Home Sales

9:05 am CT - Fed’s Dudley Speaks

6:30 pm CT – Fed’s Kocherlakota Speaks

                                                                                                                                                                                

Tuesday:

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales

7:20 am CT - Fed’s Powell Speaks

7:30 am CT - Fed’s George Speaks

8:00 am CT – FHFA House Price Index

9:00 am CT – Richmond Fed Mfg. Index

12:00 pm CT – 2-year Note Auction Results

8:15 pm CT - Fed’s George Speaks

                                                                                                                                                                                                              

Wednesday:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

9:00 am CT – New Home Sales

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

11:05 am CT - Fed’s Mester Speaks

12:00 pm CT - Fed’s Evans Speaks

12:00 pm CT – 5-year Note Auction Results



Thursday:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT – Durable Goods Orders

8:45 am CT – PMI Services Flash

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories

10:00 am CT – Kansas City Fed Mfg. Index

12:00 pm CT – 7-year Note Auction Results

12:20 pm CT - Fed’s Lockhart Speaks

                                                                                                                                                                                                      

Friday:

7:30 am CT - GDP

8:55 am CT – Consumer Sentiment

沁颍

9/22/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are pointing toward a lower open to start the new week after the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended last week at a record high. Although small caps and the tech sector hit a bump last week, Blue Chips and large caps were in demand from buyers. Growth concerns in China have surfaced again, which is negatively affecting global markets this morning. China’s Finance Minister stated they will not make policy changes based on a few indicators as downward pressures in the country remain. We should see a nice bounce in option volatility this morning if stocks remain in the red after the open today.


Risk off trades have boosted bonds, though yields have edged off of overnight lows. The 10-year rate tested 2.55% before moving up to 2.57% and the German Bund is at 1.04% after slipping earlier. Equities were under pressure as they opened Monday trading after China doused hopes for more stimulus, while the G20 warned of financial market risks. Also, profit taking on U.K. stocks after the largest 2-day rally in over a month added to the more bearish tone. The luster is also off the enthusiasm after the Alibaba (BABA) IPO on Friday. Before the open, the Chicago Fed national activity index for August is due at 7:30 and a report on existing home sales in August is due at 9 am. As the week progresses investors will also receive reports on new home sales in August, U.S. manufacturing and services activity in September, and another estimate of GDP growth in the second quarter. There is also plenty of Fed-Speak this week, which will hopefully put some clarity behind the FOMC statement from last week.



Stock Stories:

Alibaba (BABA) – IPO’ed – The e-commerce site out of China makes debuted as the largest IPO in U.S. history on Friday.  The shares rallied over 38% above its opening price as demand was strong. Options on BABA begin trading early next week.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT– Chicago Fed National Activity Index

9:00 am CT –Existing Home Sales

9:05 am CT - Fed’s Dudley Speaks

6:30 pm CT – Fed’s Kocherlakota Speaks



Notable Earnings:   

Monday – 9/22

Before Market:  AZO

After Market:  ASNA



Tuesday – 9/23:

Before Market:  CCL, KMX, USAT

After Market:  BBBY, SCS

沁颍

9/23/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) may continue yesterday’s slide as they are pointing toward a lower open. Monday’s sell-off was broad-based but once again was led by the small cap (IEM, RUT) and tech (QQQ) sectors. Global growth concerns, falling commodity prices and interest rate direction put the Bears in control in these sectors.  Overnight, U.S. stocks started off strong but reversed quickly after the negative data out of the Euro-Zone surfaced. Option volatility spiked higher off of support levels once again on the downturn yesterday. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose 13% and the ‘Fear Gauge’ should gain more momentum today if equities remain in the red.



Bonds extended gains modestly as stocks continued to erode. The 10-year Treasury yield tested 2.53% earlier on the back of the drop in the German Bund yield under 1.0%, though both have edged up from those levels. Interestingly, a better than expected flash PMI print from China at 50.5 was mostly shrugged off. European national PMIs were mixed. Meanwhile, U.K. mortgage approvals and government borrowing data worsened. In the U.S. the bond market must absorb $29 B in 2-year notes which kicks off $93 B in coupon offerings this week. As for data in the U.S., there is the PMI for September along with the July FHFA home price index, and the September Richmond Fed manufacturing index. Fed-speak from doves and hawks will be of interest, but may result in more confusion rather than clarity on the anticipated rate lift-off.



Stock Stories:

Herbalife (HLF) – Pyramid – The multi-level marketing company dumped 10% yesterday on rumors that investor Carl Icahn was selling his stake.  Although the company is widely considered a Pyramid scheme, Icahn reported did not sell any of his stake. The shares are up slightly ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales

7:20 am CT - Fed’s Powell Speaks

7:30 am CT - Fed’s George Speaks

8:00 am CT – FHFA House Price Index

9:00 am CT – Richmond Fed Mfg. Index

12:00 pm CT – 2-year Note Auction Results

8:15 pm CT - Fed’s George Speaks



Notable Earnings:   

Tuesday– 9/23

Before Market:  CCL, KMX, USAT

After Market:  BBBY, SCS



Wednesday – 9/24:

Before Market:  CAN, KBH, PAYX, MTN

After Market:  FUL, JBL