Last week's shinking Three White Soldiers paved the road for today's flash correction to the point where wave-b and wave-d are of the same size. What's next? If we count the intraday wave from 1 to 9, it's in 9 now. If we count it from a to e, it's in wave-e now. Today's strong bullish candlestick *might* actually become the Last Engulfing top. We have been waiting for a climax or the bear's capitulation. This *might* be it.作者: snowrider 时间: 2010-10-2 23:35
I don't know where the market really wants to go. There are infintely many possible wave count alternatives. I make my wave counts by following Elliott Wave principle with Gann's timing and pricing methodology. My preferred wave count shows how I trade and my current position. If the market proves that my preferred wave count is incorrect, maybe the alternative wave count will take over. The market is always right, so I won't insist where the market should go.作者: snowrider 时间: 2010-10-3 13:11
My preferred wave count is exactly in that fashion - zig zag up. Still, I don't rule out the possibility of some centra bank dumping tons of gold at this record high, or the possibility of interest rate increase - maybe not now. If it does not happen, I'll still be cautious about the possible speculator's huge liquidation before december contract's notice date - which could be the turning point of this market.作者: snowrider 时间: 2010-10-7 22:10
10/07/2010 (Gold Update)
The wave count still follows 10/02/2010's preferred count. Maybe the wave-C is over, and maybe we are in the progress of wave-D's wave-1 now.
One possible variation of alternative counts is that the wave-C has ended today, which means that a big wave-[B] ended too. And the wave after that is a super big decline of wave-[C] down all the way to 950 area.
Gold may be waiting for a final thrust to set a new high and form the wave-_3 before a big correction back to previous wave-__4 ($1330-$1340 area) to form wave-_4.
So far, gold has been following 10/14/2010's intraday wave count and 10/16/2010's daily chart wave count with a good size of setting back to $1330 area, which was previous wave-__4. Now it may be forming the wave-_4. If so, next wave will be wave-_5 to challenge the all time high in order to form the wave-3 of this bull run.
作者: snowrider 时间: 2010-10-21 22:22
10/21/2010 (Gold Update)
Gold has shown 5 impulsive waves down, so it negated the assumption that the past few days was a corrective wave. With that said, I would like to change last week's alternative count to be the preferred one. It might not be a bad idea to establish short position if the market can bounce some 0.382-0.5 back. 作者: snowrider 时间: 2010-10-23 23:06
10/23/2010
Comments are welcome!
EUR:
SP:
Gold: 作者: vincent_goodman 时间: 2010-10-24 17:20
thanks for sharing作者: snowrider 时间: 2010-10-26 21:08
10/26/2010 (Gold Update)
According to 10/23/2010's wave count, the bounce could be a corrective or an implusive wave. Both are significant to the later development of the wave. If the current up move is a corrective wave, it means that the picture of gold has entered into a long term bearish market. If the current up is a impulsive, it means that an extension of the bull market in in progress - which will skyrocket gold to an unbelieable high price. Where is it now anyhow? 作者: snowrider 时间: 2010-10-28 20:56
10/28/2010 (Gold Update)
The beauty of wave is that it provides us possible alternatives so that we know how to deal with. There won't be any surprise if all counts are considered. Would the current fractal a wave-_c or a wave-_3? 作者: Brainteaser 时间: 2010-10-29 18:44
Yes, I'll do it tomorrow. Thanks for asking.作者: snowrider 时间: 2010-10-29 21:55
Today gold's price behavior shows a strong bullish momentum. Bearish count is not to be considered at this moment. I'll start a new thread for November. Stay tuned!作者: snowrider 时间: 2010-10-29 22:53
This thread is closed. If you are following my wave count, please see:
