Consumer Price Index
Released On 8/15/2012 8:30:00 AM For Jul, 2012
Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
CPI - M/M change 0.0 % 0.2 % 0.0 % to 0.5 % 0.0 %
CPI - Y/Y change 1.7 % 1.7 %
CPI less food & energy 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.1 % to 0.2 % 0.1 %
CPI less food & energy - Y/Y change 2.2 % 2.2 %
Highlights
Consumer prices in July came in softer than expected at both the headline and core levels. The consumer price index was flat, following no change in June. The consensus expected a 0.2 percent rise. Excluding food and energy, the CPI increased a modest 0.1 percent, following a 0.2 percent gain in June. The median market forecast was for a 0.2 percent rise.
By major components, energy fell 0.3 percent in July after declining 1.4 percent the month before. Gasoline actually rose 0.3 percent, following a 2.0 percent decrease in June. Declines were seen in electricity, piped gas, and heating oil. Food prices edged up 0.1 percent after gaining 0.2 percent in June.
For the core rise of 0.1 percent in July, this ended a streak of four consecutive 0.2 percent increases. Deceleration was largely due to declines in costs for airfare, used cars & trucks, new vehicles, and transportation services. Also, apparel and medical care inflation slowed.
Year-on-year, overall CPI inflation held steady at 1.7 percent in June (seasonally adjusted). The core rate nudged down to 2.2 percent from at 2.3 in May percent on a year-ago basis. On an unadjusted year-ago basis, the headline CPI was up 1.4 percent, compared to 1.7 percent in June. The core was up 2.1 percent versus 2.2 percent in June, not seasonally adjusted.
The July CPI report indicates softness in the economy although early indications are that prices will not be so soft in August due to food and energy gains. Today's report is favorable to the doves at the Fed for potential further easing, and the next CPI release is one day after the September Fed meeting.作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-15 09:51
Empire State Mfg Survey
Released On 8/15/2012 8:30:00 AM For Aug, 2012
Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
General Business Conditions Index - Level 7.39 7.00 -2.00 to 9.00 -5.85
Highlights
Orders are contracting in the New York manufacturing region pointing to further weakness in the nation's manufacturing sector. The Empire State index fell to minus 5.85 in August vs July's plus 7.39. The negative reading for August indicates monthly contraction in general business conditions. Specific readings on orders are negative with new orders at minus 5.50, which is a second straight month of moderate contraction, and with unfilled orders at minus 10.59, which is a second month of significant contraction and that follows a long string of moderate contraction.
Shipments and employment are still rising but won't for very much longer if new orders don't begin coming in. Other readings include a draw for inventories, a rise for prices, and a decline in six-month optimism.
Government data on the manufacturing sector through June was weakening while the ISM report showed extending weakness through July. Now this report points to continued trouble in August. Next reading on the manufacturing sector will be the Philly Fed report tomorrow. 作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-15 09:52
Treasury International Capital
Released On 8/15/2012 9:00:00 AM For Jun, 2012
Prior Prior Revised Actual
Foreign Demand for Long-Term U.S. Securities $55.0 B $55.9 B $9.3 B
Highlights Foreigners eased back on their buying of U.S. financial assets with net inflow of long-term securities rising only $9.3 billion in June for the weakest reading since October last year. Foreigners continued to buy Treasuries but all other classifications show declines including corporate bonds and equities. US residents were small net sellers of foreign securities in the month. Foreign investment in US financial assets is an important offset to the government's roughly $100 billion monthly deficit and the economy's roughly $50 billion per month trade deficit. 作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-15 09:54
Industrial Production
Released On 8/15/2012 9:15:00 AM For Jul, 2012
Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual
Production - M/M change 0.4 % 0.1 % 0.5 % 0.3 % to 1.1 % 0.6 %
Capacity Utilization Rate - Level 78.9 % 79.2 % 79.0 % to 79.6 % 79.4 %
Manufacturing - M/M 0.7 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.2 % to 0.8 % 0.5 %
Highlights
Industrial production in July continued to advance. Overall industrial production jumped 0.6 percent after a 0.1 percent rise in June (originally up 0.4 percent). Expectations were for a 0.5 percent boost. While June was revised down, May was revised up to a 0.1 percent gain versus the prior estimate of a 0.2 percent decline. Revisions were offsetting.
By major components, manufacturing advanced 0.5 percent, following an increase of 0.5 percent in June (previously estimated at up 0.7 percent). Analysts forecast a 0.5 percent gain for the manufacturing component.
Motor vehicles production supported the manufacturing gain, increasing 3.3 percent in July, following a 1.9 percent rebound in June. Manufacturing excluding motor vehicles posted a 0.2 percent rise, following a 0.4 percent boost the prior month.
In July, mining output advanced 1.2 percent, following a 0.5 percent increase in June. Utilities output rebounded 1.3 percent after declining 3.3 percent the prior month.
Overall capacity utilization rose to 79.3 percent from 78.9 percent in June. The consensus projected 79.2 percent.
Manufacturing strength was in durables which increased 0.8 percent in July. Gains of more than 1 percent were recorded in primary metals, in computer and electronic products, in motor vehicles and parts, in aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment, and in miscellaneous manufacturing. Only wood products, nonmetallic mineral products, and machinery posted decreases. In July, the production of nondurables was unchanged.
The manufacturing sector looked good in July and June. However, today's Empire State report for August was negative. This raises questions about forward momentum although the New York State data are not always reflective of national output.
The traditional non-NAICS numbers for industrial production may differ marginally from the NAICS basis figures.作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-15 10:09
Housing Market Index
Released On 8/15/2012 10:00:00 AM For Aug, 2012
Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
Housing Market Index 35 35 32 to 38 37
NAHB housing market index surged 6 points in July to 35. The monthly gain was the largest in nearly 10 years while the level, which has been moving higher all year, is now at its highest of the recovery, since March 2007. All regions report gains with strength centered in sales six months out. 作者: 無心風月 时间: 2012-8-15 10:30