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标题: [原创] 技术上看现在已经极度的超买 [打印本页]

作者: not4weak 时间: 2011-7-1 12:18 标题: 技术上看现在已经极度的超买

估计下周开始调整... 但总体趋势目前还不能说很熊的. 看来我要SIT OUT JULY了.

作者: 棋王 时间: 2011-7-1 12:21

估计下周开始调整... 但总体趋势目前还不能说很熊的. 看来我要SIT OUT JULY了.
not4weak 发表于 2011-7-1 12:18

哪里超买了？大部分指标刚刚转牛。
你应该说前面的大跌，是极度极度的超卖！
所以什么1150，1050啥的都是不可能完成的任务。

作者: not4weak 时间: 2011-7-1 12:24

回复 2# 棋王
K = 98 D=92 ...

作者: not4weak 时间: 2011-7-1 12:25

另外华巴也出来了... 一般是他出来就到顶了, 大傻一般是半山腰.

作者: 棋王 时间: 2011-7-1 12:26

回复棋王
K = 98 D=92 ...
not4weak 发表于 2011-7-1 12:24

TA 啥的，你去问老秋吧。

作者: 华巴 时间: 2011-7-1 12:30

怪不得昨儿个你和小红惦记我。。。
出来给你解套。。。
结果小红没熬住撒。。。

作者: seagal 时间: 2011-7-1 12:40

就凭华巴出来见人就咬这个指标，我今天开始加SPY put，因为长周末的缘故，加2012 Jan的。。。

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-7-1 12:54

回复棋王
K = 98 D=92 ...
not4weak 发表于 2011-7-1 12:24

KD%, slow one or the fast one, - useless and will cost you tons of money to learn to throw it away.

作者: not4weak 时间: 2011-7-1 12:58

回复 8# snowrider
Then what do you use?

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-7-1 13:16

回复 snowrider
Then what do you use?
not4weak 发表于 2011-7-1 12:58

I assume that you are asking me what TA indicators I use?
You see my charts are clean without anything. That's it! I don't use any TA indicator. Don't get me wrong ... I have used them all, and I even wrote my own. The conclusion ... at least to me they are all USELESS.

作者: not4weak 时间: 2011-7-1 13:21

I assume that you are asking me what TA indicators I use?
You see my charts are clean without a ...
snowrider 发表于 2011-7-1 13:16

You know, they are NOT useless. You need to understand some basic statistics, it is all about probability.

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-7-1 13:26

Come on ... talking about probability??? Do you want to discuss the bell curve? That's a false statement.

Your guessing about my knowing or not knowing is totally wrong. Let me tell you again:

TA indicators are all UESLESS.

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-7-1 13:27

Maybe I am not brilliant enough, but TA indicators costed me really really a lot of money to learn that they are totally USELESS.

作者: buhuyou 时间: 2011-7-1 13:28

估计下周开始调整... 但总体趋势目前还不能说很熊的. 看来我要SIT OUT JULY了.
not4weak 发表于 2011-7-1 12:18

我想你解释不清楚什么叫超买，若果真如此，可以认为你在吵卖。

作者: not4weak 时间: 2011-7-1 13:32

回复 13# snowrider

USELESS for you, but not for others.

作者: not4weak 时间: 2011-7-1 13:33

回复 14# buhuyou
这个是统计意义上的, 你的洗桶需要做BACKTESTING, 一样的道理. 我们找到的信号, 都是要看很久才可以用的.

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-7-1 13:35

Yes, maybe you are right that it's useful to those 小三.

Let me tell you the truth ... big hands never depend on any TA indicators. Actually TA indicators help them to kill 小三.

作者: flyhigher 时间: 2011-7-1 13:40

Maybe I am not brilliant enough, but TA indicators costed me really really a lot of money to learn t ...
snowrider 发表于 2011-7-1 13:27

Somewhat agree. I haven't rendered them to complete useless category. It's certainly very low when I consider things.

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-7-1 13:42

Guys (gals) ... 說的好!

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-7-1 13:51

I don't know what their backgrounds are.

If you want to discuss binomial distribution or pearson distribution, more than welcome. With that said, you know my background.

作者: not4weak 时间: 2011-7-1 13:55

I don't know what their backgrounds are.

If you want to discuss binomial distribution or pearson ...
snowrider 发表于 2011-7-1 13:51

难道概率就是关于那几个简单分布?

作者: buhuyou 时间: 2011-7-1 13:56

回复 22# snowrider

那是很厉害的理工科。我只知道一些爬松分布。

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-7-1 14:03

Of course they are not "那几个简单分布", but you use the word "probability" losely so that's why I thought that you want to have a serious discuss about the statistics.

作者: not4weak 时间: 2011-7-1 14:10

本帖最后由 not4weak 于 2011-7-1 14:11 编辑

Of course they are not "那几个简单分布", but you use the word "probability" losely so that's why I t ...
snowrider 发表于 2011-7-1 14:03

All the TAs in stock trading, which you termed as "USELESS", are related to statistics. To say the TAs are useless, that means you don't understand them well.

比如我说超买, 是说的统计意义上的. 比如说, 已经连续20天高温了, 接下来也许继续高温, 是趋势, 这个你可以用MA来看. 但是趋势有长有短, 季节变化了, 趋势就会反转了. 比如, 买高的人多起来了, 做空的已经被挤压差不多了, 就该反转了.

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-7-1 14:20

Then I will tell you that you have seen enough markets yet, or you haven't read enough history yet.

The reall big money is when people are eyeing the TA overbot/oversold and trying to catch a reversal ... at that point of time, the extreme occurs ... That's the real big money.

I would suggest you read more history ... at least study the past 30 years price action/behavior of the index. If you want to see more, study the past 40 years daily charts of all major currencies. And more, ... all commodidites, USA, UK, and Japan.

作者: not4weak 时间: 2011-7-1 14:24

回复 27# snowrider

You know I don't think the past 30 years are relevant, back then there were no daytrading like now. Program trading didn't exist that time.

I have read through carefully with the recent 15 years of data. You actually can see these are quite good.

History is NOT consistent.

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-7-1 14:28

OK ... 不跟妳槓了
Do whatever you believe!

作者: 华巴 时间: 2011-7-1 14:33

human never change...

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