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标题: [闲谈] 几个牛牛们说说，现在应该买什么好？ [打印本页]
作者: 大傻    时间: 2011-5-17 21:08     标题: 几个牛牛们说说，现在应该买什么好？

本帖最后由 大傻 于 2011-5-17 21:09 编辑

TECH？ OIL？MATERIAL？

我知道我的GDX会涨得很猛，，但我还有很多很多的CASH在手里，很难受这儿就涨上去。

CRAMER说离底比离顶更近，exactly my feel now...

Cramer: The Bottom May Be Closer Than You ThinkPublished: Tuesday, 17 May 2011 | 6:22 PM ET Text Size By: Michelle Fox
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Another tough day in the market may make home gamers want to get rid of their big industrial plays. But Cramer said if you haven’t sold yet, don’t bother.  After all, he thinks the market is closer to the bottom than it is to the top.




“The time to capitulate has passed,” he said. “The time to be opportunistic may soon be upon us."

Take Caterpillar [CAT  102.08    -4.01  (-3.78%)   ], for example. It reported the best quarter on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, with the biggest upward estimate revisions. But because of the perceived slowdown worldwide, coupled with miserable industrial production numbers released Tuesday, CAT has been a real easy sale. The problem, Cramer said, is that the sale has been ongoing and now is not the time to realize there’s a slowdown.

Cramer contrasted CAT with Procter & Gamble [PG  67.42    0.48  (+0.72%)   ], which reported the worst quarter versus the expectations in the Dow. Yet, it seems indestructible. Cramer believes that’s because PG said it was spending far more on commodity costs than it had predicted when it last reported. Since the commodity collapse, that is no longer the case. But, Cramer said, if you have only recognized this now, you may be coming in close to the top.

Other sectors getting slammed include oil, machinery makers and miners.  But Cramer warned about easing the pain by selling.

“You’re being emotional if you sell here," Cramer cautioned. “That is, as long as the fundamentals are still intact."

In other words, Cramer is not suggesting holding onto Hewlett-Packard [HPQ  36.91    -2.89  (-7.26%)   ], Research in Motion [RIMM  43.78    0.92  (+2.15%)   ] or Cisco [CSCO  16.64    0.04  (+0.24%)   ]. Those companies are broken, he said. But Caterpillar and Cramer fave Cummins [CMI  106.49    -3.63  (-3.3%)   ] both reported excellent quarters, even as the companies’ stocks fell.

If you took profits when these stocks were ripping, Cramer thinks its time to think about buying back the stock using “wide scales” on the way down.

And if you haven’t already sold a stock like Freeport-McMoRan [FCX  46.83    -0.52  (-1.1%)   ] or DuPont [DD  52.30    -0.62  (-1.17%)   ] or ConocoPhillips [COP  71.54    0.11  (+0.15%)   ], he said, “perhaps it’s time to rethink the direction and recognize that the bottom, while not here, may be closer than you think.”
作者: 大傻    时间: 2011-5-17 21:09

short TLT 或买ＴＢＴ？
作者: tfmegatron    时间: 2011-5-17 21:26

XLF financial + GOOG， AMZN，，，俺现在就盯着期指了。。。
作者: 大傻    时间: 2011-5-17 21:30

AAPL is better than GOOG, GOOG is yesterday's story.

maybe it is time to get into material reated stocks, XLB, XLE, OIH.



XLF financial + GOOG， AMZN，，，俺现在就盯着期指了。。。
tfmegatron 发表于 2011-5-17 21:26
作者: tfmegatron    时间: 2011-5-17 21:35

AAPL is better than GOOG, GOOG is yesterday's story.

maybe it is time to get into material reated stocks, XLB, XLE, OIH.




大傻 发表于 2011-5-17 21:30


no, XLB XLE are double tops, target not reached yet, ,, financial entered correction earlier than others, the next driving force must be financial plus tech, financial is cup+handle, xlk is inverse H&S
作者: not4weak    时间: 2011-5-17 21:40

Buying them for what?  Why in a rash?
作者: 大傻    时间: 2011-5-18 10:26

Missed UYM, followed your UYG at $66.45


XLF financial + GOOG， AMZN，，，俺现在就盯着期指了。。。
tfmegatron 发表于 2011-5-17 21:26
作者: 大傻    时间: 2011-5-18 10:31

I think financials will tell how much upside space we have for this rebound, if finanicials continue to lag behind seriously, that will sustantiate the idea spx is forming a top around 1360s.
作者: not4weak    时间: 2011-5-18 10:32

7# 大傻
Short bonds should be good
作者: 大傻    时间: 2011-5-18 10:48

I agree tentatively,,,, but I am afraid FED is going to roll out QE3 soon.


7# 大傻
Short bonds should be good
not4weak 发表于 2011-5-18 10:32
作者: not4weak    时间: 2011-5-18 10:53

I agree tentatively,,,, but I am afraid FED is going to roll out QE3 soon.



大傻 发表于 2011-5-18 10:48


Based on what I observe the as*le Ben, he would.  But I doubt it will be that fast, likely next year.
作者: wxp    时间: 2011-5-18 13:00

I sold my UUP yesterday and bought TCK. So far so good.
作者: wxp    时间: 2011-5-18 13:03

I agree tentatively,,,, but I am afraid FED is going to roll out QE3 soon.



大傻 发表于 2011-5-18 10:48


QE2.5 will be in play as soon as QE2 is over. If the economy remains weak, Fed will do whatever they can to keep pumping money.
作者: 大傻    时间: 2011-6-1 22:32

想好了的，执行起来一定不能胆怯，斯皮胆敢触及1300一线，坚决把剩余的30%开西满上。

大傻又一次再问你们同样的问题，不过这时可能已经没有几个敢于持有的牛牛了。

到底是XLF/UYG呢 还是从MATERIAL里（XLB/XLE）搞？想来想去，还是决得这个FINANCIAL的安全一点。XLB 其实是我更想。



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