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标题: [读书学习] 读后感系列贴 (三) [打印本页]

作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-3-28 07:55 标题: 读后感系列贴 (三)

"读后感系列贴"在
http://www.yayabay.com/forum/vie ... &extra=page%3D3

读后感系列贴 (II)在
http://www.yayabay.com/forum/vie ... page%3D1&page=1

作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-3-28 07:56

http://www.yayabay.com/forum/vie ... page%3D1&page=4

3/23我说铜价牛起来了，结果当天股市早上Gap down而尾盘突破。
现在铜刚开始回调，看这次股市如何反应。

作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-3-29 08:54

http://stockcharts.com/def/servl ... rvlet?obj=ID3400916

铜的走势近来多次领导了股市。
下一步就是看支撑位置啦。

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作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-3-30 08:08

同一张图，昨天今天两个说法。
看来所谓“画图TA”更象是艺术，而不是科学。

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作者: not4weak 时间: 2011-3-30 14:08

4# ychen222

I also expect a double bottom

作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-3-31 07:47

http://www.yayabay.com/forum/vie ... page%3D1&page=4

3/17我说“失败的头肩顶反向报复也是相当凶狠的”，看起来NASDAQ现在有这个趋势。

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作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-4-1 07:21

http://www.yayabay.com/forum/vie ... page%3D3&page=2

我在去年12/13日贴过$NYSI的图，当时标题是“大行情才开始？”，现在可以看看2010年12月13日以后的股市走法。同时再看看现在的$NYSI。

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http://yayabay.com/forum/attachment.php?aid=290286&k=b6620aedb85dc74f1f795e49ca7037e7&t=1732760216&sid=Eme8Xi

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作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-4-4 07:33

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/saxena040111.html

“Turning to the present situation, it is our belief that we are in the 'immature bull' phase of the cycle. Today, credit is expanding, yield curves are steep in many nations and retail investors are still nervous about the stock market. Furthermore, if our assessment is correct, the 'mature bull' phase is still several months away and the next bear market will probably arrive in 2-3 years.”

大概此作者认为现在相当于03年12月，以后的走法跟04年以后类似？

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作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-4-4 07:35

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/swenlin040111.html

没有低点重测啦？

作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-4-5 07:41

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/doolittle040311.html

最近铜的走势的确和股市不符，铜又落到颈线，不知守得住否。
不过从图里看，去年4月初铜就开始跌，而股市却大涨直到4月底，所以有了一个月的偏差。铜如果这次上不来的话，按3月25日算起，股市是否也营挺不过4月份了呢？

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作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-4-7 06:55

对上一篇的更新：
铜涨上来啦，而国债低迷，这对股市有利。

作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-4-8 07:16

美元和国债大跌，金油铜大涨，铜出现HH和HL。
这些应该对股市涨有利。

作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-4-8 13:37

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/2422653.html

捣乱者4/1说“这个回头最浅在13天均线！为什么有这回头？因为太急剧反弹了，以至于技术指标来不及跟随..”

经过一周的斗鸡，现在13天均线好象提到2769了。

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作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-4-11 07:18

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/swenlin040811.html

长期国债可能要大跌。
另外一张图似乎想说$TNX走了一个失败的头肩顶。

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作者: 何鸿燊 时间: 2011-4-11 15:41

14# ychen222

必须的。本来QEII的弹药剩下不多了。还有什么崩盘题材吗?

作者: not4weak 时间: 2011-4-11 16:37

15# 何鸿燊
钱会去哪里呢？国外？

作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-4-12 08:10

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/summers041111.html
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/bock041111.html

看了这两篇，其他的观点不说，但同意他们说的现在市场上美元和长国债很危险。
不弱说“钱会去哪里呢？国外？”，货币市场和债券市场比股市容量大得多，真的调动起群众的积极性，出国困难。短期里股市和大商品还是有支撑的，看来看去股市近期似乎还是涨的阻力小。

作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-4-13 06:55

http://www.yayabay.com/forum/vie ... &extra=page%3D1

yijianmei在4/1就预见回调，并把当前与07年做比较，so far很正确。
只是07年最后的冲刺之后可是大大顶，而我更相信现在跟04年开始相当，SP500要冲击1400，过一点点，然后567月大回调，目标1130。

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作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-4-14 07:20

http://www.market-harmonics.com/ ... rs_intelligence.htm

我一直不太看重此网站，因为听说他们调查的范围比较小，也许不如直接看CPC/CPCE图。
但这次可能他们对，而CPC/CPCE的总base提高了。

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作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-4-15 08:21

http://www.trader1688.com/bb/vie ... t=47105&start=0

蓉儿早看出现在的第二腿，很成功。
现在就看之后的damoon和1000点如何了。

作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-4-18 07:47

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/swenlin041511.html

大回调会有，“next six-month period”？然后还要接着2年的牛市？

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作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-4-19 08:35

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/vermeulen041811.html

“So going back to the US Dollar, I feel as though it has a little more downward motion left which will help get the SP500 to a new yearly high. Once the dollar rally starts, it will crush stock and commodity prices for several months.”

此文对美元和股市大商品的关系讲得很清楚，我支持他的美元还有最后一跌，股市还有一冲的看法。

作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-4-20 07:05

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/summers041911.html

"The Primary Dealers are:

Bank of America
Barclays Capital Inc.
BNP Paribas Securities Corp.
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co.
Citigroup Global Markets Inc.
Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC
Daiwa Securities America Inc.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
Goldman, Sachs & Co.
HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.
J. P. Morgan Securities Inc.
Jefferies & Company Inc.
Mizuho Securities USA Inc.
Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated
Nomura Securities International Inc.
RBC Capital Markets
RBS Securities Inc.
UBS Securities LLC.

Of this group four banks in particular receive unprecedented favoritism of the US Federal Reserve. They are:

JP Morgan
Bank of America
Citibank
Goldman Sachs
"

传说里的大MM大概就指它们。

作者: not4weak 时间: 2011-4-20 15:29

23# ychen222
不一定, 还有大基金比如STATE STREET, FIDELITY... ETC>

作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-4-21 06:46

http://www.trader1688.com/bb/vie ... ;t=47305&hilit=

“(1)number 1 on my mind，我最喜欢的trading week 是 the week after oe，这两week的负相关近三年达到95%以上。上个礼拜oe week down，所以礼拜一，我很从容地抄底。这里面的内在原因，我想了几年还没整明白。
(2)gap up/down after mdd/mad
。。。”

“报告酽茗老师：　丁丁刚才在洗碗，　脑子里在琢磨这个问题。　

这个是不是和资金无关？　　而仅仅和position 的大小有关？　MM 在OE 前的一段时间里，　积累了一些　option，　也就是我们通常说的　OI. 　在OE 的时候，　股价给捣鼓到一定的价位，　这样　mm 就可以用最小的代价去关掉那些　OPTION.。　　而为了捣鼓到那个价位，　mm 的手段只有股票，　或长或短。　

这样他的手头就积累了一些股票头寸。　这些头寸可能超过了他们通常的仓位，　这样他们就要关掉一些。　LONG --> SELL, SHORT --> COVER,　可是他不能搞的太急，　股价跳的厉害，　加大成本。　

所以，　我猜，　mm 为了卖个好价，过了OE, 　更可能要把股价顺着OE 的方向再拉一点，　再　通过几天的时间，　关掉手里的一些股票头寸。”

今年2，3，4月份看来符合此规律。

作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-4-25 07:30

http://www.yayabay.com/forum/vie ... &extra=page%3D1

从现在美元跌，油金银大涨的样子看，FED的宽松政策会维持。
铜和天朝的A股显弱势，难道人民币要大升？

作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-4-26 07:05

http://www.yayabay.com/forum/vie ... page%3D1&page=2　

2/27贴和4/5贴

A股和铜据说领先美股，但它们看起来象是朝下走。
美股的好日子也不多啦？

作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-4-27 07:35

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/ciovacco042611.html

“Stocks, Dollar, and VIX Not Anticipating Negative Reaction to Fed”

跟QE1结束时候不同啦？

作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-4-28 07:06

http://www.yayabay.com/forum/vie ... page%3D1&page=2

"有人问道美元贬值的问题，Ben说，Fed现在是要搞活经济，经济好了，美元就上来了，言外之意，Fed不会去主动保护美元，那个是Treasury的事，这个和Ben一贯的立场相符

输出通货膨胀，在力所能及的范围内，会尽量地搞。货币币值的调整，将来恐怕要靠在欧元背后捅刀子，或者发动局部战争来解决了

现在不妨大胆预言一下，今年下半年希腊的债务，Default的可能很大，到时候会狠狠的杀，现在先把猪养肥。希腊目前想Extend，如果到时欧元居高不下，美国会想尽办法不许它Extend"

"目前实体经济还没有完全恢复，房价依然低迷，Ben认为在Commodity市场形成的Bubble，在调控通货膨胀的时候会予以打击，比以前房地产的Bubble要容易控制，因此不Care

通货膨胀的输出是必要的，作为变相的贸易战，Ben认为他根本没有必要考虑其他国家的通货膨涨，凡是通货膨胀厉害的国家，都可以用其币值低估来搪塞过去"

flyhigher 满有见地的。

作者: 大傻 时间: 2011-4-28 19:17

老陈啊，还是把花在读这些垃圾文章上的时间来陪陪孩子吧。。

作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-4-28 22:09

老陈啊，还是把花在读这些垃圾文章上的时间来陪陪孩子吧。。
大傻发表于 2011-4-28 19:17

我一般比老婆孩子早起，在他们还在睡觉的时候花10分钟左右读读各种垃圾，觉得还算表面光鲜的就记一笔。
其他的时间当然不敢这样浪费。

作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-4-29 07:29

本帖最后由 ychen222 于 2011-4-29 15:27 编辑

胡同/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=119113&extra=page%3D1&page=1

“你最好早做准备。。。”

据说不确定对股市伤害比较大。

下周我旅行，可能不能发贴。

作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-5-9 06:46

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/jones050211.html

“While several articles have been proffered by authors I respect deeply, they have not offered a means to determine when the Dollar has bottomed. While nothing is full proof, the longer term SPX chart may be a guide as to when the U.S. Dollar will begin to bottom. The SPX weekly chart shown below illustrates the long term ascending channel that the S&P 500 has been trading in for some time.

My "educated guess" as to when the Dollar will begin to bottom will likely coincide with a test of the ascending trend line. In previous articles, I opined that I thought we would see the S&P 500 rally and we are in that process now. My guess is that about the time the S&P 500 tests the rising channel, we will see the U.S. Dollar begin to bottom.”

我支持此预测。

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作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-5-10 07:28

http://stockcharts.com/def/servl ... D95481&cmd=show[s41134367]&disp=O

记得4月底时候看月图BB上轨还在2870附近，一到5月就变成2949了。
仅从这一点看，中期顶应该能冲到2949，甚至3000也未必不可能。

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作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-5-11 07:18

http://www.frontlinethoughts.com

在新一期“Muddle Through, or Crisis?”里John Mauldin说：

“I think the crucial point will be reached in late 2013. If the bond market sees a serious move to control the deficit, I think they let us “skate.” Then we Muddle Through. But if not, I think we begin to see some real push-back on rates then.

Why so early? Because bond investors are going to be watching the slow-motion train wreck that is happening in Europe and especially Japan. It is one thing for Greece to default (which they will in one form or another, with lots of rumors flying this morning), yet another for Japan to do so. Japan is big and makes a difference. Japan could start to go as early as the middle of 2013. As I have said, Japan is a bug in search of a windshield. Whenever this happens, 2013 or a year or so later, it is going to spook the bond market. The normal indulgence that a superpower and reserve-currency country would be accorded will become much more strained. It will seemingly happen overnight. Think Lehman Brothers on steroids.”

这样看来，大危机可能发生在2013年。那么经过今年夏季的大回调后，从秋后开始到明年一整年，一个不错的大牛市可期。

作者: wyemlyy 时间: 2011-5-11 09:18

本帖最后由 wyemlyy 于 2011-5-11 09:19 编辑

问题是夏天什么时候会回调呢？Sell in May or After QE2?

35# ychen222

作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-5-12 06:53

问题是夏天什么时候会回调呢？Sell in May or After QE2?

35# ychen222
wyemlyy 发表于 2011-5-11 09:18

我猜大回调发生在6月份，等NASDAQ到达2950，SP500过1400以后。

作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-5-12 06:56

http://news.sina.com.cn/c/2011-05-10/034022434278.shtml

第三轮中美战略与经济对话看来搞得不错，不知当前的美元涨，油价跌，美债涨是否跟此有关。
可能中国在钱上还是要迁就一下老美，而美国在政治关系上迁就一下中国。

作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-5-13 07:58

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/2466245.html
http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/2467622.html

前一个写得的确出色。

后一个发誓里表达的情绪让人遗憾，在网上想主要依靠正途来得到正反馈不太现实，因为多数情况下人家之所以发帖就是想抬高自己贬低别人。

作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-5-16 07:42

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/connor051211.html
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/connor041811.html

此人在他的4月份的前一篇里是反指，看这次5月的到底是正指还是反指。

作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-5-16 08:29

http://www.zaobao.com/gj/gj110516_003.shtml

“这些紧急措施只能维持到8月2日”。

8月初也许是股市调整的高潮期。

作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-5-17 07:36

A股和铜到现在为止显然还是没有起色，已经持续跌势超过一个月。
若它们是美股的先导指标的话，美股堪忧。

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作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-5-18 07:52

http://stockcharts.com/def/servl ... 926808&cmd=show[s199362375]&disp=O

CPCE应该是先导指标。这次股市还算不上跌破位，CPCE均线却已经熊起。
老熊想吃肉的时候会走得这么面吗？

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作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-5-19 08:01

http://www.yayabay.com/forum/vie ... &extra=page%3D1

此讲法我以前也听说过。
所以这最后一波也许多仓持大盘股比较好，比如说NDX；转空时候持小盘股较好。

作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-5-23 07:30

又是OE刚过，想起4/21的帖子。
那么上个OE周算涨还是跌呢？一二三四月还是比较明确的，而上周则复杂一点，周12跌，周345算小涨，整体算什么呢？
跌？那么今明2天可能继续跌一跌，然后大涨？
若后半周的涨是MM做出来对付OE的，那么现在就会直接大跌了。

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作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-5-24 07:02

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/summers051911.html

“I firmly believe that we could see another round of deflation this summer. And that's when the Fed will begin to stage its next round of intervention/ stimulus: autumn 2011 going into 2012.”

我支持Graham Summers的观点。
现在的问题就是股市具体的走法和对应的时间。
我猜测NASDAQ的中期顶点在2940-2970区间，时间看来要到6月下旬，然后2级跳跌至2400+。也许9/10月份会来第三跳，从2600+到2300+。

作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-5-25 06:24

胡同9/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=123340&extra=page%3D1
http://finance.sina.com.cn/stock ... 4/21039892012.shtml

“1300-1295点之间存在重大支撑，这一区间很难迅速被破。”
“总结：从我们的近期技术指标来看，标普500指数近期可能会在1295-1300点进行整理。不仅1300点附近的区域是一个重大支撑而难以被迅速攻破，而且总体技术面仍然有利，因此标普从该位置向上修正是不足为奇的，我们推荐等待回调以逢低吸纳。”

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作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-5-26 07:35

http://bbs.cobrasmarketview.com/ ... t=191&start=140

“Re: 05/24/2011 Intraday Watering

by FJoe » Tue May 24, 2011 2:51 pm

Just an FYI and this time may be different. The last 3 big selloffs lasted

Aug. 9 to Aug 30 = 15 trading days
Nov. 5 to Nov 30 = 16 trading days
Feb. 18 to Mar. 16 = 17 trading days
May 2 to May 23 = 16 trading days or 17 trading days if the low of today is taken out...so I assume we are close to, if haven't hit a bottom here.
FJoe Posts: 65Joined: Fri Mar 11, 2011 10:40 am”

看起来不错。

作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-5-27 07:36

http://stockcharts.com/def/servl ... D95481&cmd=show[s4549237]&disp=O

欧元终于没有突破140大关。
而美元弱的话，有利于股市。

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作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-5-31 09:19

胡同9/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=123501&extra=page%3D1

以前股市的细节走法很有用。

作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-6-1 07:19

http://www.3xetf.com/

All 3x ETFs

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作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-6-2 07:50

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/maund053011.html

“As you are probably well aware, everyone has gotten complacent over the broad stockmarket, with premature top callers continually getting burned as it has somehow stayed levitated, but as we will now see the situation is getting more and more dangerous with passing time. This is because the market is rounding over beneath the large parabolic "Distribution Dome" shown on our 1-year chart for the S&P500 index below. Few traders understand these Dome patterns or what they portend. The rounding nature of the pattern is evidence that profit takers are increasingly overwhelming fresh buyers whose efforts to drive the market higher are blunted to the point that they have no effect at all and once the Dome starts to roll over, as is happening now, the bears have gotten hold of the ball, and it only takes the re-emergence of fear in the market to precipitate a potentially severe decline. Add into the mix that the market has just broken down from a 3-arc Fan pattern as pointed out by Richard Russell and also shown on our chart, which usually precipitates a drop, and you have the recipe for a potentially heavy selloff. Here we should note that Domes don't always lead to bearmarkets, as they can simply be a form of rounding correction - sometimes the market breaks suddenly above the Dome boundary and a new major upleg ensues, but here the situation is complicated by the Fan breakdown - so it will take not just a break above the Dome boundary, but a break back above the 3rd fanline to turn the market bullish again.”

听着也有道理。

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作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-6-3 07:26

http://www.trader1688.com/bb/vie ... ;t=48318&hilit=

“现在的大盘，就是 2010年 2月初的走法，，，自己看去吧，不要天天打酱油了，自己悟吧，
大盘中期趋势图上次一周前，半夜里也已经画过了贴出来过了，，，
还记得 2009 年，俺说过 SPX 1000 是强支撑要被反复测试那句话吗？当时有多少人瞎BASH啊？
今天有多少人再想从 1000 买一次到 1370 还有机会吗？木有了！！！
同理，当今年到了 1450～1500 的时候再回头看 1300 这个长达个把月的夯实平台的时候，
我敢保证有人还是这个心情，还会有多少人再想从 1300 买一次到 1500，还有机会吗？木有了！！！”

从1月触到SP500的1300开始，指数连续4个多月周旋于1300，对应NASDAQ的2750。
此盘整显然积蓄了大能量，希望市场最终选择向上。

作者: 大傻 时间: 2011-6-3 08:02

热泪尹眶。。。。跟着帮主走，吃喝拉撒不用愁。

http://www.trader1688.com/bb/viewtopic.php?f=87&t=48318&hilit=

“现在的大盘，就是 2010年 2月初的走法，，，自己看去吧，不要天天打酱油了，自己悟吧，
大盘中期趋势图上次一周前，半夜里也已经画过了贴出 ...
ychen222 发表于 2011-6-3 07:26

作者: not4weak 时间: 2011-6-4 00:18

54# 大傻
扯的成分太大, 以为股市听她的吗?

作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-6-6 06:20

本帖最后由 ychen222 于 2011-6-6 06:22 编辑

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/smyth060211.html

“the financial sector was extremely weak so far this year, and it has been a drag on the market as a whole. The performance graph below shows that the financial sector is the only sector that is down so far this year. The rotation into defensive sectors is also clear on this graph with Healthcare and Utilities leading the market.”

看XLF图，只要不过16.25，就算有涨也不过是反弹。

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作者: aimei 时间: 2011-6-6 23:09

How I just saw this one
thanks
but I loaded financials heavily'555555555555555

作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-6-7 07:10

http://www.frontlinethoughts.com

“The answer is very simple and it is linked to the recent underperformance of banks almost everywhere. Indeed, with short rates still low everywhere, and yield curves positively sloped, we are in the phase of the cycle when banks should be outperforming. The fact that they are not has to be seen as a concern. So does the underperformance come from the fact that the market senses that losses have yet to be booked (Europe?)? Is it a reflection of a lack of demand for loans (US?) or that more losses and write-offs are just around the corner (Japan?)? Is the bank underperformance signaling that we are on the verge of a new banking crisis, most likely linked to the possibility of European debt restructurings? Or perhaps it is linked to the coming end of QE2 and consequential tightening in the liquidity environment (see our Quarterly published earlier today for more on this topic)?

“In our view, any of the above could potentially explain the recent bank underperformance. But whatever the reasons may be, it has to be seen as a worrying sign. One of our ‘rules of thumb’ is that if banks do not manage to outperform when yield curves are steep, the market must be worried about the financial sectors’ balance sheets (given that, with a steep yield curve, there are few reasons to worry about the bank’s income statement).”

银行有不明的坏帐？还是在满地打滚向FED/国会要奶吃？

作者: aimei 时间: 2011-6-7 18:31

so which sector will be good?

作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-6-8 08:13

so which sector will be good?
aimei 发表于 2011-6-7 18:31

若变牛势的话，可能反而金融有涨的潜力。

作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-6-8 08:14

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/vermeulen060611.html

“Take a look at the chart of the SP500. The first session in May was the highest point and the SP500 has only gone down since then. The chart below shows my fear indicator and with the masses all selling in the month of May I have to think it's getting ready to bottom and start another 5-6% rally from down here. Keep in mind I am more neutral on the overall market for the longer term. In the next month or two I figure we see higher prices from here but come August we could see the dollar bottom and stocks sell off in a more significant manner.”

涨到八月。

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作者: aimei 时间: 2011-6-8 12:55

若变牛势的话，可能反而金融有涨的潜力。
ychen222 发表于 2011-6-8 08:13

Xie xie laoda
~o~

作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-6-9 07:24

http://stockcharts.com/def/servl ... 400916&cmd=show[s178269234]&disp=O

A股领导美股so far还没有错，那么接下来美股就是熊途漫漫了。

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作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-6-10 07:14

http://stockcharts.com/def/servl ... 926808&cmd=show[s203616851]&disp=O

月图里MA（10）算1270吧，前天最低的1277其实还差一点点。
而若去MA（20）的1185就算大调了。

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作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-6-13 08:30

上周五说SP500还差7点，当天就把这7点补了。

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/vermeulen060911.html

看样子反弹还是有希望的。

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作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-6-15 06:47

http://www.yayabay.com/forum/vie ... &extra=page%3D1

“I used to back tested my systems 24x7 against more than 30 years of historical data, trying to find the best solution. What was my daily life? Whenever there was an idea, I code my idea to TradeStation, and then ran the back testing. Alas, I gave up all my systems because I was not able to find one that I really like.”

至少说明做交易系统不是一条好走的路。

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-6-15 10:09

“I used to back tested my systems 24x7 against more than 30 years of historical data, trying to ...
ychen222 发表于 2011-6-15 06:47

"至少说明做交易系统不是一条好走的路" - I believe that there must be some talent people there have better trading idea so that their systems work. I am just not brilliant enough, so my systems did not work.

作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-6-16 06:47

http://stockcharts.com/def/servl ... D95481&cmd=show[s4549237]&disp=O

美元突破重要阻力，出现HH和HL，加上欧元，A股和铜的疲软，SP500跌破1250应该只是时间问题。
华尔街MM从来落井下石，而不会是救世主。

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作者: aimei 时间: 2011-6-16 10:28

super duper

作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-6-17 08:17

http://stockcharts.com/def/servl ... rvlet?obj=ID3400916

觉得现在也许可以套用去年股市调整的走法，见图：

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作者: aimei 时间: 2011-6-17 10:06

cool
learning
yes

作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-6-20 06:42

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/connor061611.html

上次Toby Connor说美元大底看来是对的，所以股市要大熊。

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作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-6-21 07:11

http://stockcharts.com/def/servl ... D95481&cmd=show[s4549237]&disp=O

股市的真正方向可能还是取决于美元/殴元，看美元的强势/欧元的颓势是否真的。

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作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-6-22 07:21

http://stockcharts.com/def/servl ... 926808&cmd=show[s234780653]&disp=O

CPCE的10天均线如此吓人，为什么VIX这次却不突出呢？

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作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-6-23 06:59

http://www.trader1688.com/bb/vie ... ;t=48698&hilit=
http://www.smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com/

“The average duration of an intermediate cycle is between 20 and 25 weeks. ”　

照他这么算，中期底出现在8月份。

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作者: 何鸿燊 时间: 2011-6-23 16:33

本帖最后由何鸿燊于 2011-6-23 16:35 编辑

回复 75# ychen222

觉得这个周期受到日本地震的影响，节奏变了。

作者: ychen222 时间: 2011-6-24 09:03

假如老何说得对，3月那次实际上不应该有如此深的回调，那么中期周期可能就得按11/10开始到现在来算，时间长了些，可是好处是本次回调还是明显HH，“In a healthy bull market intermediate degree corrections hold well above the prior cycle troughs.”没有被破坏。

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