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标题: [原创] The more I read and study, the more [打印本页]

作者: not4weak 时间: 2011-1-23 14:07 标题: The more I read and study, the more

convinced I am that a nasty drop is on the horizon. The lofty evaluation has made the market priced for perfection. Will the companies actually deliver? The nasty inflation in China and Europe is much visible now. Market wont have to wait for the US inflation which probably would never materialize soon.

Stocks are seeing some of their loftiest gains deflate, and that could continue as investors weigh dozens of major earnings reports and a fresh series of economic news in the coming week.

Nearly a quarter of the S&P 500 and about half of the 30 Dow stocks report earnings, including American Express, McDonald's, Johnson and Johnson, Caterpillar and Boeing. The Fed meets Tuesday and Wednesday, and there will be reports on housing, durable goods and fourth quarter GDP. O8 gives his State of the Union address Tuesday.

作者: not4weak 时间: 2011-1-23 14:15

Monday

MCD

AXP

Tuesday

The Case-Shiller November index of home prices before the market opens.

MMM, DuPont (DD, Fortune 500), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ, Fortune 500), Travelers (TRV, Fortune 500) and Verizon (VZ, Fortune 500).

Yahoo (YHOO, Fortune 500) after the bell.

Wednesday

The FED meeting 2:15 p.m. ET.

Also before the bell,  Boeing (BA, Fortune 500)

(SBUX, Fortune 500)

Thursday

weekly  initial claims

Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500)

Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500) and Amazon (AMZN, Fortune 500) are up after the bell.

Friday
Fourth-quarter U.S. GDP.  3.8% expected

Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500)

作者: 好酒 时间: 2011-1-23 20:04

看来还要高一下,然后下去.(2月以后)

作者: sweettomato 时间: 2011-1-23 20:11

有的搞，要得，
有的耍，搞得，

作者: AGA7d 时间: 2011-1-24 12:14

Agree with a correction, then it should go back up. My target for the year is 1400.

作者: sweettomato 时间: 2011-1-24 12:23

很年轻，很有理想。。。

Agree with a correction, then it should go back up. My target for the year is 1400.
AGA7d 发表于 2011-1-24 11:14

作者: AGA7d 时间: 2011-1-24 12:57

I am too correct late last Aug... This is the first time I see a good sized correction coming since then.

2010-9-8

2010-9-8 15:54
AGA7d
ROUBINI是个学究，危机时他是对的（KASS也对），现在不能听他的。

所有IB的年底目标都比现在高 -- 我觉得SP在1100以下的天数屈指可数了

作者: AGA7d 时间: 2011-1-24 12:59

2010-9-5

2010-9-5 06:24
AGA7d
我说过我过去看空的厉害，但现在时候不一样了，往后一定是做多容易，
做空难，这世界闲钱太多。

说实在的，没个CONVICTION，除非
是短线真牛，蹦蹦跳跳的挣不了多。但短线极厉害的能有几个？

作者: not4weak 时间: 2011-1-24 13:01

本帖最后由 not4weak 于 2011-1-24 13:04 编辑

I am too correct late last Aug... This is the first time I see a good sized correction coming since then.

2010-9-8

2010-9-8 15:54
AGA7d
ROUBINI是个学究，危机时他是对的（KASS也对），现在不能听 ...
AGA7d 发表于 2011-1-24 12:57

What would trigger that 1100?

作者: AGA7d 时间: 2011-1-24 13:04

See my reply to Da-Sha.

Also, sold my QID earlier today. Waiting for a better entry.

作者: not4weak 时间: 2011-1-24 13:06

10# AGA7d
""Overextended" is the reason to short, not quite the others. If the Fed continues QE, there will be new high. It is not because of the fantastic economy, but because there are not many places for the money to go."
??? Is this one?

作者: AGA7d 时间: 2011-1-24 13:09

本帖最后由 AGA7d 于 2011-1-24 12:11 编辑

That's the time QiuYue kept saying buy TLT

AGA7d Aug 28 06:43 PM
Saying there is no bubble in bond now is like saying there is no bubble in the housing in 2005. The Fed will bid more aggressively on the new T-notes if necessary, so there is no hiding there. As for the economy, it is hanging, there is nothing in sight that can cause a collapse. This will guarantee a healthy corporate earnings down the road. No top-line growth? Who cares - is 3x yield (SPX earnings yield vs 10-year T-note) not enough? Historically, corporate earnings are doing just fine during stagnant growth period. Today lots of people are afraid of the equity market - wait a year (or less) and see if they are afraid or jealous...

作者: AGA7d 时间: 2011-1-24 13:10

yes, that's it

10# AGA7d
""Overextended" is the reason to short, not quite the others. If the Fed continues QE, there will be new high. It is not because of the fantastic economy, but because there are not many p ...
not4weak 发表于 2011-1-24 12:06

作者: AGA7d 时间: 2011-1-24 13:13

I don't think there is 1100, actually 1200 is a bit hard to see now.

I was quoting 2010-09-08 when SP is below 1100.

作者: AGA7d 时间: 2011-1-24 13:29

发表于 2010-8-2 07:22 | 只看该作者

[放炮] SPX 2010 and 2011 close

2010 - 1270
2011 - 1350

我大跃进呢

作者: not4weak 时间: 2011-1-24 13:37

15# AGA7d
No your estimate maybe too low ... who knows? You can't predict. People will be right and wrong, it all depends on their timing.

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