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沁颍

赌ER的同学，请进一步确认ER时间。。。

8/20/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading relatively flat as investors go on Fed watch. The only significant economic report scheduled to be released today is the minutes from last month’s FOMC meeting which will be released at 1 pm CT. The market has risen during four out of the past five sessions but may be facing a bit of a headwind today as the ceasefire between Gaza and Israel appears to have broken down. The trading action may be lackluster despite the FOMC minutes as investors await this weekend’s meeting in Jackson Hole, which begins on Friday. Option volatility fell again yesterday as stocks bounced higher. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is now back to its support level near $12 and may consolidate here or bounce higher once again.



Treasuries are little changed, as are equities, as the traders await the FOMC Minutes this afternoon (2 pm CT). They are expected to be a mixed bag of dovish and hawkish commentary but nothing market-moving is expected. Overseas markets were mixed and provided no strong leads for the U.S. The USD (/DX) continues to rally against other major currencies. Today's data calendar is very light with just the MBA report where mortgage applications rebounded 1.4% in the week ended August 15.



Stock Stories:

Lowes (LOW) – digging lower – The home improvement retailer posted better than expected quarterly results this morning as EPS and top-line revenue were above estimates. The company unfortunately guiding slightly lower for the fiscal year. This has put pressure on the shares as they are down over 2.5% ahead of the opening bell.



Target (TGT) – missed bullseye – The retailer posted quarterly results this morning that slightly beat expectations. The Company lowered guidance significantly and cut its FY14 as sales remain under pressure. The shares are down over 1% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

6:00 am CT – MBA Mortgage Applications

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

1:00 pm CT – FOMC Meeting Minutes



Notable Earnings:   

Wednesday – 8/20:

Before Market:  AEO, EV, HAIN, LOW, MSG, PETM, PLKI, SJM, SPLS, TGT

After Market:  CACI, HPQ, LB



Thursday – 8/21:

Before Market:  BKE, DLTR, HRL, PLCE

After Market:  ARO, BRCD, CRM, GME, GPS, INTU, MRVL, NWY, PERY, ROST, SMRT

我想飞

Good stuff.

Hohoho, AEO up a lot in pre-market. GL

沁颍

8/21/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading slightly higher in the pre-market. Yesterday’s session saw moderate gains on another day of anemic volume and movement. Investors once again shrugged off the FOMC minutes that were released yesterday. They showed growing sentiment for raising interest rates sooner than expected. The decision most likely remains data dependent but getting behind on this may prove to be detrimental to the economy.  Option volatility fell again yesterday as stocks trended higher. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is at its lowest level in a month despite the geopolitical and economic headwinds present.



Treasuries are little changed to lower, in tandem with small losses in global bonds. The action comes in the aftermath of the more hawkish FOMC minutes and as equities continue to rally. The 10-year yield tested 2.45% again before backing down modestly. The markets mostly shrugged off weaker Chinese and Euro-zone PMIs, and U.K. retail sales. There's a lot of data on the U.S. docket today but traders will mostly be waiting for Jackson Hole speeches from Yellen and Draghi tomorrow. Today's line-up includes the August Philly Fed manufacturing index, the August Markit flash PMI, weekly initial jobless claims, and leading indicators. The claims data will be important since the week correlates with the BLS survey period.



Stock Stories:

Hewlett Packard (HPQ) – Printing higher – The tech company posted in-line EPS yesterday after the close but beat on top-line revenue. The stock initially fell but is higher this morning after a few positive comments out of analysts.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

8:45 am CT–  PMI Mfg. Index Flash

9:00 am CT – Philly Mfg. Index

9:00 am CT – Existing Home Sales

9:00 am CT – Leading Economic Indicators

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories

All Day Event– Jackson Hole Symposium begins



Notable Earnings:   

Thursday – 8/21:

Before Market:  BKE, DLTR, HRL, PLCE

After Market:  ARO, BRCD, CRM, GME, GPS, INTU, MRVL, NWY, PERY, ROST, SMRT



Friday – 8/22:

Before Market:  FL, HIBB

After Market:  N/A

秂忢空

沁颍

8/22/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading slightly lower following reports that a Russian convoy had crossed the Ukrainian border without permission. Investors hope the market can continue its winning ways after the S&P (SPX) hit another new all-time high, the Nasdaq (QQQ) reached a new 14 year high and the Dow (DIA) closes in on a new record. All focus today will be on Fed Chair Janet Yellen as she will deliver the keynote speech in Jackson Hole today at 9:00 am CT. Investors will be listening carefully for any clues about any changes in monetary policy but she is expected to remain dovish despite the improving economic and jobs data.  Option volatility remained at exceptionally low levels as stocks continued to move higher.



Bonds are higher in the U.S. and globally ahead of speeches from Fed Chair Yellen and ECB President Draghi today, and the Bank of Japan's Kuroda tomorrow. The yield on the 10-year note is back below 2.40% at 2.38% and the German Bund equivalent is still under 1.0%. The Bank of England Minutes that showed 2 hawkish dissenters which revived speculation of a rate hike sooner than expected. As stated above, there are also renewed concerns over Ukraine and the Russian "aid" convoy. There's no data on the U.S. calendar today but next week brings numbers on housing stats, durable goods, the second release of Q2 GDP, the Chicago ISM, income and consumption and consumer sentiment.



Stock Stories:

Salesforce.com (CRM) – Cloudy – The cloud tech company posted better than expected EPS and revenue yesterday after the close. The stock was expected to move 5% after the report but the shares are only up by about 1% in the pre-market.



Bank of America (BAC) – Pay up - Bank of America announced yesterday that it has reached a comprehensive settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice, certain federal agencies and six states for close to $17B. Investors took the news positively as the shares spiked back over $16 as the overhang of a settlement is gone.



Major Economic Reports:

9:00 am CT – Fed Chair Yellen Speaks

All Day Event– Jackson Hole Symposium



Notable Earnings:   

Friday – 8/22:

Before Market:  ANN, FL, HIBB

After Market:  N/A



Monday – 8/25:

Before Market:  QIHU

After Market:  RENN, SNOW

aimei

Monday eR interesting
thanks

沁颍

Weekend Update  August 24, 2014

Last week was a good one for U.S. equities. A combination of easing tensions in Ukraine and positive developments in Iraq on the geopolitical front helped markets. Also, better-than-expected economic data and a Fed mostly still reluctant to rush rate hikes pushed U.S. stocks to record highs…again. However, a vocal minority within the Fed is suggesting earlier increases for interest rates as economic and jobs data improved more than anticipated. Housing data also improved this past month as data last week showed. The sector had been lagging this year but finally showed some promise recently. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) was up 1.7% for the week and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) almost matched it up 1.6%.  The Blue Chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) led the benchmark indices up 2.0% while the small caps (RUT, IWM) matched the tech sector and finished up 1.6%. All major indices are up modestly for the year but the small caps (RUT) are still down 0.3 in 2014.



Option volatility sank like a stone this week as any geopolitical or monetary risks were ignored. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell over 12% for the week. The ‘Fear Gauge’ is firmly below the $12 level but this area has been a solid support level this year. Concerns on the FOMC minutes were pushed aside and any heightened anticipation of comments out of the Jackson Hole meeting on monetary policy were quickly extinguished. There is plenty of economic data due and continued geopolitical risks to contend with this upcoming week so hopefully we will see some added volatility.



Treasury rates rose modestly this past week as bond prices fell slightly. Rates firmed as bond traders saw the FOMC minutes as suggesting that Fed nudging up policy rates could happen sooner than earlier believed. Despite this theory, Yellen and the doves continue to drone on about keeping rates low. Everything the Fed had hoped for with economic and jobs data has come to fruition, but they continue to keep their stance on not allowing rates to rise.  Oil prices (/CL) fell notably this past week. Crude fell to seven-month lows earlier in the week as inventories and demand waned.



This week's focus is on manufacturing, consumer sentiment and housing. Manufacturing has regained momentum and the week's focus might be headline durables orders as Boeing (BA) orders posted a huge gain for the month. Despite this, Deere (DE) was downgraded and the manufacturing giant continues to struggle. This week's updates come from Dallas, Richmond, and Kansas City on manufacturing. On the housing front, the latest numbers showed notable gains for housing starts and existing home sales. But new home sales have been soft and that is a key update this week. Home price appreciation has shown decelerating growth in recent reports and new numbers will hit the wires for FHFA and Case-Shiller this week. Earnings season is all but over so focus will remain on global issues and economic data.


Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday:

A.M. – QIHU

P.M. – RENN, SNOW



Tuesday:

A.M. – BBY, BMO, DSW, MOV, TSL

P.M.- ADI, BOBE, SWHC, SLH, TIVO



Wednesday:

A.M. – CHS, EXPR, ISLE, TIF

P.M. – GES, WSM, WDAY



Thursday:

A.M. – ANF, BIG, COST, DG, PLL, TD

P.M. – BEBE, NQ, PSUN, SPLK



Friday:

A.M. – FRO



Economic Releases (8/25 - 8/29):

Monday:

7:30 am CT – Chicago Fed National Activity Index

8:45 am CT– PMI Services Flash

9:00 am CT – New Home Sales

9:00 am CT – Dallas Fed Mfg. Survey

                                                                                                                                                                                

Tuesday:

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales

7:30 am CT– Durable Goods Orders

8:00 am CT – FHFA House Price Index

8:00 am CT – S&P Case-Shiller HPI

9:00 am CT – Consumer Confidence

9:00 am CT – Richmond Fed Mfg. Index

12:00 pm CT –2-Year Note Auction Results

                                                                                                                                                                                                              

Wednesday:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 5-Year Note Auction Results



Thursday:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT– GDP

9:00 am CT – Pending Home Sales Index

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories

10:00 am CT - Kansas City Fed Mfg. Index

12:00 pm CT – 7-Year Note Auction Results

                                                                                                                                                                                                        

Friday:

7:30 am CT – Personal Income and Outlays

8:45 am CT – Chicago PMI

8:55 am CT – Consumer Sentiment

aimei

谢谢
Monday:

A.M. – QIHU

P.M. – RENN, SNOW

沁颍

8/25/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are pointing to a positive open for the broader market as investors hope the market can extend its winning ways. The S&P (SPX) hit another new all-time high last week and will be looking to break the $2K level today. Merger news and gains overseas are helping to boost stocks. The rhetoric out of the Jackson Hole meetings was generally positive according to market watchers. Option volatility should take another fall today if we remain positive. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is approaching yearly lows and low volumes should be present into the Labor Day weekend.



Bonds are higher in the U.S. and yields continue to trend lower. The yield on the 10-year note is still below the 2.5% as demand for the safety of Treasuries remains strong. European stocks kicked off Monday with gains, inspired by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s unexpected suggestion at Jackson Hole, Wyo. that further stimulus could be on the way for the region. The Euro is falling against the U.S. Dollar on that view of more ECB easing is in the cards as well as a survey that showed weaker German business confidence. Today's economic line-up includes the Chicago Fed Activity Index, PMI on the Services side and New Home Sales. We saw some improving housing data last week and investors will look to see if that trend continues for the lagging sector.



Stock Stories:

Intermune (ITMN) – Scoop – The pharma company is getting acquired by Swiss-based Roche (RHHBY) for $8.3B.  The merger agreement has been approved by the boards of InterMune and Roche. The shares are up 36% this morning to the buyout price near $74.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Chicago Fed National Activity Index

8:45 am CT– PMI Services Flash

9:00 am CT – New Home Sales

9:00 am CT – Dallas Fed Mfg. Survey



Notable Earnings:   

Monday – 8/25:

Before Market:  QIHU

After Market:  RENN, SNOW



Tuesday – 8/26:

Before Market:  BBY, BMO, DSW, MOV, TSL

After Market:  ADI, BOBE, SWHC, SLH, TIVO

沁颍

8/26/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading slightly higher as the market will look to extend its recent gains. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) exceeded $2000 for the first time yesterday and finished at an all-time closing high of 1,997.92. Stocks continue to be supported by their long-term uptrend with little in the technical picture to suggest that this situation is about to change. Geopolitical tension has taken a back seat as investors focus on improving economic data despite another miss on New Home Sales yesterday. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose slightly despite gains for equities as the ‘Fear Gauge’ may be at recent support levels.



Treasuries remain higher, in tandem with further gains in bonds globally amid increasing expectations for ECB stimulus. The 10-year Treasury trades at 2.37%, while the German Bund equivalent is at 0.93%, just off its recent all-time low. European and U.S. equities are also in the green on central bank hopes, while Japanese markets closed lower. Today's U.S. calendar will be of interest, especially the July durable goods orders data where a hefty increase is expected on Boeing (BA) orders. Also on tap is the S&P Case-Shiller home price index for June, the FHFA home price index, August consumer confidence and weekly chain store sales. Also, the Treasury begins its auctions with its $29 B 2-year offering at noon CT.



Stock Stories:

Best Buy (BBY) – sparked – The electronics retailer posted EPS that blew away estimates but they missed on top-line revenue. This has become a concerning trend as revenue has lacked growth that is needed to sustain increasing valuations for most companies.  The company’s stock is reacting negatively as the shares are down over 4% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales

7:30 am CT– Durable Goods Orders

8:00 am CT – FHFA House Price Index

8:00 am CT – S&P Case-Shiller HPI

9:00 am CT – Consumer Confidence

9:00 am CT – Richmond Fed Mfg. Index

12:00 pm CT –2-Year Note Auction Results



Notable Earnings:   

Tuesday – 8/26:

Before Market:  BBY, BMO, DSW, MOV, TSL

After Market:  ADI, BOBE, SWHC, SLH, TIVO



Wednesday – 8/27:

Before Market:  CHS, EXPR, ISLE, TIF

After Market:  GES, WSM, WDAY

沁颍

8/27/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading relatively flat after the market celebrated the S&P 500’s (SPX) first ever close above 2,000 yesterday. The strength was broad-based, as the Dow (DIA) hit a new intra-day high and the Nasdaq (QQQ) moved to a new 14 year high. There will be little for investors to work with today as few pieces of significant economic data are due to be released. We will most likely see more of a grind higher as lack of data and softening geopolitical news supports gains.  Volumes are at their lowest levels of the year so conviction of the rally is not confirmed at these levels.



U.S. Treasuries are higher on the heels of gains in Asian and European bonds. The 10-year Bund yield dipped to test 0.90% on another batch of weaker than expected data as the U.S. 10-year sits near 52-week lows. German import price inflation fell, while confidence measures in France and Italy deteriorated, increasing expectations for additional stimulus from the ECB at next week's policy meeting. The only data releases include the weekly MBA mortgage numbers and oil inventories in the U.S. The rest of this week's data includes revised Q2 GDP along with initial jobless claims and July pending home sales (Thursday). On Friday we will see numbers on personal income/spending, the August Chicago PMI, and the final Michigan sentiment numbers for August.



Stock Stories:

Tiffany (TIF) – Over-priced garbage? – The high-end jewelry retailer posted EPS and revenue data that beat estimates this morning. The high end continues to out-perform the overall sector as the wealthy are still spending.  The company’s stock is reacting positively as the shares are up 2% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications – up 2.8% for the week

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 5-Year Note Auction Results



Notable Earnings:   

Wednesday – 8/27:

Before Market:  CHS, EXPR, ISLE, TIF

After Market:  GES, WSM, WDAY



Wednesday – 8/28:

Before Market:  ANF, BIG, COST, DG, PLL, TD

After Market:  BEBE, NQ, PSUN, SPLK

沁颍

8/28/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading lower on reports out of Europe that the Ukraine was invaded by Russian troops. This comes after the market (SPX) closed above 2,000 again and has ground higher into the holiday weekend. European markets are taking a big hit today on the geopolitical news out of Ukraine. German is leading the downside off over 1%. U.S. equities look like they are going to attempt to ignore the news as losses are only modest at this point. With low volumes and volatility at extremely oversold levels, we could see a nice pop in the CBOE volatility Index (VIX) today.



The flight to safety amid increased tensions in Ukraine has propelled bonds higher. Ukraine president Poroshenko reportedly has called an urgent meeting of the security and defense council this morning. The German 10-year Bund yield dropped to a fresh record low at 0.86%, while the 10-year Treasury fell to 2.32%. A mix of data added to some volatility in the markets, with a weaker than expected number on Euro-zone economic confidence and an increase in German unemployment. This was somewhat offset by an uptick in German state CPI and acceleration in growth. On tap today in the U.S. is data on the revised Q2 GDP, initial jobless claims and July pending home sales. Data on Friday includes personal income/spending, the August Chicago PMI and the final Michigan sentiment numbers for August.



Stock Stories:

Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) – Teen disgust – The teen retailer posted EPS numbers that beat estimates this morning but revenue was light as same-store-sales were down once again. The company also cut its guidance for FY14 on the back of decelerating growth.  The shares are down 6% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT– GDP

9:00 am CT – Pending Home Sales Index

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories

10:00 am CT - Kansas City Fed Mfg. Index

12:00 pm CT – 7-Year Note Auction Results



Notable Earnings:   

Thursday – 8/28:

Before Market:  ANF, BIG, DG, PLL, TD

After Market:  BEBE, NQ, PSUN, SPLK



Friday – 8/29:

Before Market:  FRO

After Market:  N/A

aimei

anf down
昨天OTM call　看来清零了

沁颍

8/29/2014

Stock futures (/ES) are pressing higher again this morning after yesterday’s brief pause and appear to be staging for yet another all-time high to close out the month with a 3.5% gain.   Renewed tension in Ukraine continues to be downplayed by the markets as the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) attempts to break below $12 again today after an early spike higher in the previous session quickly vanished.   



European markets have surrendered earlier gains after lukewarm inflation data left analysts second guessing about the apparent need for additional easing from the European Central Bank.  U.S. Treasuries are little changed this morning with the 10 year at 2.35%.  Buyers continue to drive yields lower with the combination of an eventual stimulus from Europe expected along with several other global government bonds trading at record low yields.   



News to close the week will be fairly light with the exception of Personal Income and Consumer Sentiment out momentarily.  Several retailers have recently shown mixed signals on the spending habits of the US Consumer which continues to drag on market sentiment.  The overall lack of trading volume has been a big story this week as the lightest trading days of the year have been recorded in light of new highs and would  be expected to extend through today coming into a long Holiday Weekend.



Stock Stories:



SPLUNK (SPLK) –  The Big-Data software company saw a 52% jump in revenue for the quarter which was well above analyst forecasts.  Shares are up 8% pre-market after testing year lows earlier this month.   



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Personal Income and Outlays

8:45 am CT – Chicago PMI

8:55 am CT – Consumer Sentiment



Notable Earnings:

Friday – 8/29:

Before Market: BIG

After Market: N/A

沁颍

Weekend Update

Equities made moderately strong gains this past week with the S&P 500 (SPX) closing over 2,000. Although a psychological barrier to some, it’s just a number and does not equate to much in the scale of things. M&A activity continues to drive sectors and increasing confidence in our recovery has stocks hitting all-time highs. Equities rallied to start the week and remained firm into mid-week. Stocks slipped Thursday despite a modest decline in initial jobless claims and an upward revision to second quarter GDP growth. The deteriorating situation in Ukraine overshadowed positive U.S. economic data. Friday, stocks gained on unexpected improvement in consumer confidence which more than offset a dip in consumer spending in the latest personal income report. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) was up 0.8% for the week and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) almost matched it up 0.9%.  The Blue Chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) rose only 0.6% while the small caps (RUT, IWM) led the major benchmarks up 1.2%.



Option volatility continued to show little in the way of fear for stocks. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) actually rose 4.4% for the week. The ‘Fear Gauge’ looks to have bottomed out on the stock rally, but that is not to say that it can’t fall further. Trading volumes were the lightest they have been this year and the upcoming shortened week may not provide any additional trading. There is plenty of economic data due so hopefully we will see investors get involved this upcoming week.  



Treasury yields fell moderately this past week with the biggest daily movements (though still very moderate) early in the week.  Global bonds were down early in the week on continuing momentum from the Fed symposium at Jackson Hole that indicated Fed and ECB policies would remain loose. Rates slipped again mid-week in concert with moves in European rates as ECB policy was seen as loose.



The week's highlight will be Friday's employment situation report for August. The Fed's chair, Janet Yellen, has recently emphasized that the labor market is not where it needs to be. Traders will be grading the employment numbers and thinking whether she is right or not. And Fed hawks will be analyzing the numbers also. The employment report likely will play a key role in the next round of Fed forecasts for the economy, posted with the September 17 FOMC statement.


Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday:

A.M. – Happy Labor Day!

P.M. – Market’s Closed



Tuesday:

A.M. – CONN

P.M.– PRGN, SWS



Wednesday:

A.M. – NAV, TOL

P.M. – ABM, HRB, SNOW, PVH, VSR



Thursday:

A.M. – CIEN, PAY

P.M. – FNSR, ZQK, ZUMZ



Friday:

A.M. – KMG, MVC



Economic Releases (9/2 – 9/5):

Monday:

N/A – Markets Closed

                                                                                                                                                                                

Tuesday:

8:45 am CT– PMI MFG. Index

9:00 am CT – ISM Mfg. Index

9:00 am CT – Construction Spending

                                                                                                                                                                                                              

Wednesday:

Auto Sales – All Day

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales

7:15 am CT – ADP Employment Report

9:00 am CT – Factory Orders

1:00 pm CT – Beige Book



Thursday:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT– International Trade

7:30 am CT – Productivity and Costs

8:45 am CT – PMI Services Index

9:00 am CT – ISM Non-Mfg. Index

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories

10:00 am CT – Oil Inventories

11:30 am CT – Fed’s Mester Speaks

5:15 pm CT – Fed’s Powell Speaks

8:00 pm CT – Fed’s Kocherlakota Speaks

                                                                                                                                                                                                        

Friday:

7:30 am CT – August Jobs Report

9:15 am CT – Fed’s Plosser Speaks

2:45 pm CT – Fed’s Rosengren Speaks