snowrider

Quote from ScalperJoe:

snowrider,

I am discussing the current waves with trader collegue regarding the S&P, and we have come to the following conclusion that Wave 5 of Wave 3 has completed, and the S&P is currently in Wave 4.  I've also read and heard that Wave 4 of the larger pattern already occurred, however our analysis is there has not been any significant pullback to justify a completed Wave 4.

Our wave counts of the larger pattern (weekly chart):

Wave 1 from 1,075 to 1,293

Wave 2 from 1,293 to 1,159

Wave 3 from 1,159 to 1,422

Wave 4 will result in a choppy "A-B-C" pattern, perhaps stalling around 1,320 (38.2% fib of Wave 3), although holding well above the top of Wave 1 at 1,293.

Then a rebound Wave 5 pattern which will break the top of Wave 3 of 1,422, hence completing the 5 wave pattern that began on October.  

A larger correction (perhaps 50%) of the completed 5 wave pattern will create the next big buying oppourtunity.

Please provide feedback/comments to this analysis, thanks.

ScalperJoe- Thanks for sharing your thought.  That scenario is a good and valid one.  Please see attached wave count.  Your wave count is labeled there as [A][B][C][D][E] in green line alternative count.  Currently my preferred count is that a wave-[[B]] (which is your wave-3) has ended, and a big collapse all the way to 960 area in the end of this year is underway.  I will pay very close attention if SP ever goes to 1320 area to see if it has any sign of bottoming there.  The 1320 area will be the cross road between a real collapse or a final leg up.

snowrider

...
One question for you is that you think we are still in the wave 4 from peak of 2000? What formation will this wave 4 take?
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busted - Thanks for commenting.  Yes, I agree with you (kind of) that EW "is very complicated".  But I would like to say that it is very easy to use in trading (because EW has some rules for validating a wave).  About your question if "we are still in the wave 4 from peak of 2000", that is what my assumption for labelling 667 (2009) as [[[C]]] is based on.  With that assumption, the "wave 4" is in the formation of a huge triangle.  About QE3, I don't care, and I never care any FA stuff.

snowrider

  现在从大浪上看：普遍认为是ABC调整浪，还是I，II，III，。。 上升浪？ 我想说的是2009 三月以来浪的普遍说法。

Wen2012abc - 若是妳問網路上其它玩波的人的看法 他們大部分是看空頭市場下跌的第1大浪已經在2007開始 而從2009以來的是第2大浪
若是妳問偶的看法 偶是猜一個超大三角型調整浪是從2000以來 而從2009以來的是這個三角形的第d大浪