本帖最后由 ychen222 于 2011-7-21 06:43 编辑
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/saville071911.html
“Anticipating QE3
There's a good chance that short-term trading positions recently established in anticipation of QE3 will backfire. The reason is that before the Fed starts a new round of aggressive money-pumping, it will need the cover provided by much lower prices for equities and commodities and a much weaker economy. The cover provided by a 'deflation scare', that is. This means that some of the things that traders are buying in anticipation of QE3 will have to drop substantially in price to make QE3 politically feasible.
If QE3 were to be introduced without the aforementioned cover then the Fed would quickly find itself in 'hot water'. The initial market reaction to the program would probably involve a sharp decline in the T-Bond and a strong rise in the S&P500 Index, but rising inflation expectations and interest rates would soon put an end to the stock market rally. Furthermore, in response to rising inflation expectations gold would start to make a beeline for $2000. In other words, introducing QE3 without the appropriate cover would result in all the negatives of QE2 with none of the perceived positives.”
换句话说，在QE3之前，债券要涨够，股票要跌够，'deflation scare'意味美元也得涨。 |
发表于 2011-7-20 07:02
| 
