高盛位高勢危 zt

何鸿燊

[2010-01-24]


撰文: 童松興chtung@singtao.ca
上周日本欄《谷歌短線反彈可期》指出: 「今次看谷哥兩張圖表，日線圖RSI跌至新低，未有起色。MACD過去兩周終於跌穿趨向線，Full Stochastics亦同步下跌。三條平均線，最後一條50日線上周亦在高成交下失守。周線圖上，RSI開始下跌，MACD則膠著，如跌破趨向線將令人擔憂。

Full Stochastics上周已現明顯跌勢。三條平均線，目前只剩下20周線(551美元)未跌破。這兩周是跌市，但成交增加。總括來說，谷歌短線有機會反彈，但600至605之間阻力重重，恐會行人止步，中線則看周線圖的MACD會否跌破，月線圖(這裡沒有顯示)則已跌破一條長期上升軌，小心為上，短線投資最重要轉身快和定下止蝕盤。」

上周一谷歌從580反彈至590美元，就此收工，連600美元也碰不到。周四宣佈業績後急挫，翌日大跌20美元，周線圖MACD已在上周跌破，加上月線圖亦跌破長期上升軌，中期走勢看淡，530美元是25周線所在，大有機會下試。

Research In Motion(RIMM)上周急跌，且跌破50日線63.60，回復弱勢，這一浪至少會跌至55-58美元之間才會有機會喘定。

三星期前，本欄《納指500嚴重負逆差》，已警告納指會見頂回吐，文章出來後第一個星期納指仍是強弩之末，再升了30點，但筆者已叫大家小心不要被人拖著鼻子走。上周納指連續第二星期調整，且步伐加快。

受消息影響，百度(BIDU)上周又急跌，前周因為谷歌(GOOG)打算退出中國已急升，日線圖上390-425之間出現一個裂口，相信很快會回補。   

今次看高盛(GS)，日線圖CMF(A)周四、五兩日跌破零點，MACD(B)亦同步在大成交下跌穿趨向線，Full Stochastics(C)跌至20以下。



周線圖上，CMF(A)過去兩個月已率先跌穿零點，MACD(B)早在兩三個月前已跌穿趨向線，Full Stochastics(C)再反覆向下。


高盛上周跌勢轉急，短期一兩日可能反彈，但幅度不大，要轉身快。高盛現正考驗50周線148美元，但筆者並不認為它能守穩，要跌到130-135美元才會有支持。

何鸿燊

Chart of Day


Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. will find it tough to reproduce last year’s record trading revenue as the difference between bid and offer prices in credit markets narrows to the tightest in almost 18 months.

The CHART OF THE DAY shows how the gap between prices at which traders offer to buy and sell credit-default swaps on North American companies has shrunk to 6.1 basis points, from as high as 20.4 in October 2008 and 16.3 in March. Historically wide spreads on everything from derivatives to bonds, representing fees earned per trade, helped fuel the recovery in bank earnings.

“It’s much tougher to earn those” profits now, said Adolfo Laurenti, deputy chief economist at Mesirow Financial Inc. in Chicago. “The more efficient the market is, the narrower the spread is supposed to be.”

Goldman Sachs’s revenue from fixed-income, currencies and commodities trading surged to $23.3 billion in 2009, while JPMorgan posted fixed-income markets revenue of $17.6 billion. The return to pre-crisis spreads may reduce the industry’s profitability at the same time regulators are threatening to curb risk taking.

Justin Perras, a spokesman for JPMorgan, and Goldman Sachs spokesman Michael DuVally, both in New York, declined to comment.

Bid-ask spreads on the 125 companies that are part of the Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index Series 13, a benchmark for the credit-default swaps market, averaged 6.3 basis points this year, compared with 10.4 in all of 2009 and 9.7 in 2008, CMA data show. The spread averaged 4.2 basis points in 2007. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

Credit-default swaps are derivatives, contracts with values derived from assets or events, including stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, interest rates or the weather. Banks, hedge funds and insurance companies use the swaps to insure bonds and loans against default or to speculate on the creditworthiness of countries and companies.

無心風月

啊～操作失誤扣了兩次錢，下了一張看不懂的圖，我暈倒

無心風月

3# 無心風月


  何鴻...你...我...我...被你打敗了

何鸿燊

[2010-03-07]

撰文: 童松興

上周日本欄《銀行股可挑戰一月高點》指出: 「XLF(Financial Select Sector SPDR)是美國銀行股指數。日線圖RSI在兩三星期前的跌浪中沒有受到破壞，重上50以上。MACD已形成新上升軌。Full Stochastics已升到浪頂，強勢得很。XLF這一次跌浪從未明顯跌破50日線，非常難得。周線圖上，RSI走勢保持，MACD 看來將快向上突破。Full Stochastics已有突破，可繼續升勢。XLF已擺脫兩條較短平均線的糾纏。料XLF可挑戰今年初高點，如創新高一點也不出奇。」上周，XLF一如所料走勢強勁，和今年高點相差不到0.5%，連升6日，後市繼續看好。

     上周答讀友問時，筆者表示頗有信心標普500會突破50日平均線，上周果然明顯突破，而在50日平均線上已停留超過5天，後市繼續看好。

      收到一位讀友Z電郵，他認為圖表不可盡信，他特別指出不同意 Research in Motion(RIMM)這一浪會見77美元。如果看慣本欄文章的讀友，應當了解筆者對圖表的看法一向比較靈活。筆者上周回答葉姓讀友的問題時，已表示圖表理論未達完善，有時的確是盡信書不如無書。對於RIMM，上周走勢比大市疲弱，一度下跌到200日線左右水平，但筆者並看不到圖表上出現關鍵性的破壞，至今仍維持原來看法。  

     這個星期看高盛(GS)，日線圖CMF(A)在零點出現反彈，創兩個月新高。MACD(B)一個月以來緩緩上升。Full Stochastics(C)已升到80以上，進入強勢區。平均數方面，重返200日線之上，50日線亦掉頭向上。周線圖上，CMF(A)從低位回升。MACD尚未向上突破，但看其他指標走勢，MACD向上突破可能在下一兩個星期就出現。Full Stochastics已有突破。股價周五已突破25周線(167.83美元)，可期下周拋離。

    綜合兩張圖表，高盛上周才開始升浪的第二波，方興未艾，兩三星期內至少可造180美元。