Upside momentum may not be as strong as it was in February 2011, but momentum is clearly bullish and moving in the right direction. Earlier this week I showed the Average Directional Index (ADX) moving to an extreme (above 40) and small-caps starting to lag the broader market. Everybody and their dog think the market is overbought and ripe for a correction, including yours truly and his dog. Even so, also keep in mind that markets can become overbought and remain overbought. The warning signs can persist even as the market continues to rise. For actual signs of weakness, chartists should consider watching weekly MACD and its signal line, which is the 9-period EMA of MACD. MACD is the difference between two moving averages, usually the 12-period EMA less the 26-period EMA. Moving averages give MACD some trend following characteristics. Taking the difference of two moving averages gives MACD some momentum characteristics. It is a true hybrid indicator that has stood the test of time.
Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) moving above its 2011 high and weekly MACD trading well below its 2011 high. Technically, a big bearish divergence may be brewing. In reality, this is a non-event as long as MACD remains above its signal line. The bearish divergence is a possibility that has not yet materialized. Notice that MACD also had a possible bearish divergence in December 2010 when SPY broke its prior high and MACD was still below this high. The bearish divergence never materialized as MACD continued higher for another three months and did not break its signal line until March 2011.
Bullish momentum is the current reality because MACD is in positive territory and above its signal line, which means it is rising. At the very least, a move below the signal line is needed to signal a downturn in momentum. The current uptrend, therefore, looks set to continue until MACD moves below its signal line. The blue dashed lines show the last three bearish signal line crosses since March 2009. Notice that a bearish divergence in the MACD-Histogram preceded two of the three. As the chart now stands, we have yet to see a deterioration or divergence in the MACD-Histogram. Note that the MACD-Histogram measures the difference between MACD and its signal line.
猜顶往往很难，所以别去猜了。。。。。。。。
Happy Weekend! |
发表于 2012-2-24 21:14
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