[基础分析] Europe Debt Woes Won't Derail Economic Recovery, Says ECRI

何鸿燊

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The bulls are out in force today thanks to better than expected economic data. All major U.S. indexes are up more than 2%, with all 30 Dow stocks higher.

Stocks got a lift after the ISM factory index continued to show manufacturing growth in the U.S. and the ADP Employer Services job survey -- a precursor to Friday’s official jobs number -- reported the biggest increase in private sector jobs in three years.

None of it is a big surprise to Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute. ECRI’s data suggests a reacceleration in growth is in clear sight.

“What you have is a global upturn, in fact, I think being driven by the U.S., not by China,” Achuthan tells Aaron and Dan in this clip. Achuthan cautions that this growth will come at a cost, especially for China. “The biggest challenge on the global front won’t be in Europe -- although that will be a big challenge -- it will be inflation.”

Speaking of China, Achuthan isn’t confident government officials can successfully squelch rising inflation. “Even if they tamp down a little bit, when you have a global industrial upturn and you’re the factory floor for the world you can’t help but participate.”

And, what about those European debt worries? (How quickly the market seems to have forgotten.) “This is not going to derail the overall European economy even though it’s going to wreak havoc in the markets and perhaps in the financial sector,” Achuthan says. “It’s not going to take a European business cycle upturn and turn it into a downturn,” or ruin the U.S. recovery, he says.