Employment Situation
Released On 9/7/2012 8:30:00 AM For Aug, 2012
Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual
Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change 163,000 141,000 125,000 70,000 to 177,000 96,000
Unemployment Rate - Level 8.3 % 8.3 % 8.2 % to 8.4 % 8.1 %
Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.2 % 0.1 % to 0.3 % 0.0 %
Av Workweek - All Employees 34.5 hrs 34.4 hrs 34.5 hrs 34.5 hrs to 34.5 hrs 34.4 hrs
Private Payrolls - M/M change 172,000 162,000 134,000 80,000 to 177,000 103,000
Highlights
The odds of some kind of Fed easing at the September FOMC just went up as the employment situation for August was not pretty. Payroll jobs were anemic even though the unemployment rate dipped. The unemployment rate slipped to 8.1 percent from 8.3 percent in July due to a sharp drop in the labor force. Payroll jobs in August advanced a mere 96,000, following gains of 141,000 in July (originally 163,000) and 45,000 in June (previous estimate of 64,000). The net revisions for June and July were down 41,000. Analysts projected a 125,000 gain for August.
Private payrolls increased 103,000 in August after gaining 162,000 the prior month. The consensus called for a 134,000 boost.
Private service-providing jobs rose 119,000 in August after a 139,000 increase the prior month. In August, notable gains were in food services and drinking places (up 28,000), in professional and technical services (up 27,000), and in health care (up 17,000).
The public sector contracted but at a slower pace. Government jobs fell 7,000 in August, compared to a 21,000 drop in July.
Turning to wage inflation, average hourly earnings were flat after a 0.1 percent rise in July. Expectations were for a 0.2 percent rise. The average workweek was unchanged at 34.4 hours. Expectations were for 34.5 hours.
Today's report is very disappointing. Equities dipped on the news but generally remained positive on favorable news from Europe. German industrial production unexpectedly posted a gain in July and British industrial output gained significantly more than forecast. Also, the weak U.S. report boosted hopes of further ease by the Fed.
Market Consensus before announcement
Nonfarm payroll employment in July increased 163,000, following gains of 64,000 in June and 87,000 in May. Private payrolls rose 172,000 in July after advancing 73,000 the month before. Analysts forecast a 110,000 boost. Both goods-producing and service-providing sectors improved moderately. The public sector contracted again but at a more modest pace than months ago. Government jobs fell 9,000 in July, the same as in June. Average hourly earnings growth slowed to 0.1 percent in July from 0.3 percent the prior month. The average workweek held steady at 34.5 hours, matching expectations. The unemployment rate rose to 8.3 percent from 8.2 percent in June. |
发表于 2012-9-7 09:02
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Morning
